Apr 1: E-Stories
RUattacks Odesa Kaniv RememberingBucha CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies A&P Avdeeva Zabrisky UKDef ISW Zelensky Kyivysky Kuleba KremlinFile Sandu Iacoboni Kapparov Davis Freiberga Brink Pavel
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Note to readers…
April will be a very busy month for me as I will be doing indepth research into a paper I’m writing, along with my other commitments. E-Stories will not be coming up with the daily (or so) frequency. My apologies in advance.
April 5th will mark another year in the life of E-Stories, and I’d like to take the opportunity to say thank you for subscribring as it means you’re interested in what is happening to Ukraine, and all the issues surrounding Russia’s criminal war.
Ukraine is an ally, and a partner in the security of our states. The only thing that scares the shit out of me is that Ukraine risks not getting necessary lethal aid in time to survive, which means more Ukrainians will fall under Russian occupation and a myriad of other consequences too numerous to list here.
That said, we need to keep vigilance high, and to share factual information as much as possible: opinions are not facts. Kremlin information operations are in high gear, underscoring narratives that appeal to those who have anti-American sentiments, or who tend to blame the U.S. and Europe for the world’s woes. They conveniently misdirect your attention from years of Soviet and Russian aggression, and clutter the infospace with noise to keep our domestic publics divided and off course. These operations are unleashed to disarm us…literally.
Buckle up: it’s going to be a shitshow at least until November 2024.
Maria Avdeeva: Noticing multiple references to 'negotiations' from various parties. Take a moment to hear the perspectives of people on the streets of Kyiv.
Zelensky commemorates 2nd anniversary of liberation of Bucha.
"This is a war to prevent anyone from daring to become a beast toward others," Zelensky said in comments commemorating the Bucha massacre. "And the bodies of our people, which were found on the streets of Bucha, demonstrated that no one in the world can stay away from this battle."
“Our spirit does not give up,” Ukraine’s president Zelensky said in an Easter message. “There is no night or day when Russian terror does not try to break our lives,” Zelensky wrote to Ukrainians on social media, following Russian missile strikes on the country overnight.
Stories we’re following…
Update: Russian missile attack on Odesa injures 5, including 3 children. Russian troops attacked Odesa with two guided missiles on March 29, injuring three people, Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper said.
Zelensky: Russia targets Kaniv, Dnister hydroelectric power plants overnight. Russian troops targeted the Kaniv Hydroelectric Power Plant in Cherkasy Oblast and the Dniester Hydroelectric Power Plant in Chernivtsi Oblast during an attack on March 29, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
Russia used a heavy ODAB-1500 aerial bomb against Ukraine for the first time. After the impact, you can see a cloud of smoke 1 km high. The ODAB bomb is a thermobaric projectile, which releases a flammable liquid before hitting the target and sets it on fire.
Ukraine's critical infrastructure targeted in Russian overnight attack. Russia attacked Ukraine with drones and missiles overnight on March 31, damaging infrastructure facilities and killing at least one person.
Maria Avdeeva: Russia launched cruise missile attacks on Ukraine early Easter morning. Stryi, hit for the third time, hosts Ukraine's largest gas storage depot, the second largest in Europe. One person killed, with potentially more trapped under rubble.
Centrenergo: Russia's March 22 strike destroys biggest power plant in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian troops destroyed the Zmiiv thermal power plant in Kharkiv Oblast during the recent large-scale attack, the state-owned energy company Centrenergo reported on March 29. 80% of DTEK's energy capacity damaged, destroyed after Russian March attacks, the company's Executive Director Dmytro Sakharuk said on March 30.
Ukraine said it had imposed emergency blackouts on several regions after the Russian attacks. National grid operator Ukrenergo said its dispatch centre was “forced to apply emergency blackout schedules in the regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kirovograd.” Restrictions were already in place in the cities of Kharkiv and Kryvyi Rih after a Russian strike last week.
Zelensky shakes up Presidential Office with more dismissals. President Volodymyr Zelensky on March 30 dismissed two more members of the Presidential Office and four advisors, in a continuing reshuffle of his inner circle. Ukrainians can expect more government reshuffles in the near future, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening address on March 30.
Zelensky: Ukrainian retreat looms without US support, ATACMS are ‘the answer.’ President Zelenskyi delivered a stark message to US Congress as Russian missiles were pounding southern Ukraine: Give us the weapons to stop the Russian attacks, or Ukraine will escalate its counterattacks on Russia’s airfields, energy facilities and other strategic targets.
"The reaction of the U.S. was not positive on our attacks on oil refineries," he confirmed, but Washington couldn’t limit Ukraine’s deployment of its own home-built weapons. "We used our drones. Nobody can say to us you can’t," Zelensky said.
Kremlin File Week in Review: listen to it on your preferred podcast platform here.
Combat Situation Update
ISW: Russian air defense struggles to protect key targets. "Russian forces appear to struggle with properly deploying short-range air defense systems along expected flight vectors for Ukrainian drones, and the Russian military appears to have even failed to cover important potential targets in reportedly well-defended areas within Russia," the ISW said.
Russia is outgunning Ukrainian forces sixfold on the frontlines, causing losses of troops and positions, Ukraine’s recently appointed commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, said in a rare interview published on Friday.
He also said Ukraine’s military would need to mobilise fewer people than initially expected to fend off Russia’s invasion. Zelensky said in December that his military had proposed mobilising up to 500,000 more Ukrainians into the armed forces as Russia stepped up attacks along the 1,000-km (621-mile) frontline, but Syrsky said in an interview with Ukrainian media published on Friday that the figure had been “significantly reduced” after a review of resources.
Governor: Almost 10,000 'dragon's teeth' anti-tank structures built in Kyiv Oblast. In early March, Zelensky announced that Ukraine was building 2,000 kilometers of fortifications. According to the governor, the construction in Kyiv Oblast includes an extensive system of trenches, dugouts, anti-tank ditches, and other non-explosive barriers.
Navy: Russia withdraws 'most valuable' ships from occupied Crimea. Russia has now withdrawn all its major vessels from occupied Crimea except for the rocket carrier Cyclone, which has never launched a missile, a Navy spokesperson said on March 30.
However, it is trying to protect its facilities in the port of Novorossiysk from attacks by Ukraine. A satellite image of the entrance to the port of Novorossiysk shows that it is now partially blocked by barges to reduce the likelihood of a breach by Ukrainian surface drones.
UK Defense Ministry: Russia mobilizing around 30,000 soldiers monthly. “(Russia) can highly likely continue to absorb losses and continue attacks aiming at wearing down Ukrainian forces,” the U.K. Defense Ministry said in its latest report.
Defence of Defence: March was a bad month for the russian Black Sea Fleet.
On Mar 5, Magura V5 naval drones attacked the patrol ship "Sergei Kotov". The ship suffered damage to the stern, right, and left sides. On March 24, the Ukrainian Air Force successfully struck "Yamal", "Azov", and "Kostyantyn Olshansky" large landing ships and reconnaissance ship "Ivan Khurs" in temporarily occupied Sevastopol. The russian Black Sea Fleet continues to suffer. Great job by the Ukrainian warriors.
Ukrainian Navy confirms Russia downed its own Su-27 aircraft over Crimea. Russian forces accidentally shot down their own Su-27 fighter jet over occupied Crimea due to "heightened combat readiness," Ukraine's Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said on air on March 29.
Igor Kyivysky: Parents lose children, children lose parents. In the top photographs there are fathers near portraits of their sons, fallen heroes. The two bottom ones, children near the dead heroes - one photo of a child near the portrait of his deceased brother, the second - near the photograph of his deceased father.
Behind the Lines
The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, warned India about red lines in the case of financing the Russian military machine.
"Our task is to convey a simple message to New Delhi. When you decide to cooperate with Russia, please know that the red line for Ukraine is the financing of the Russian military machine," the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine emphasized.
According to Kuleba, Ukraine intends to strengthen ties with India. He emphasized that both countries will benefit from the expansion of trade and technological ties.
"We are interested in importing some types of heavy machinery manufactured by India," he said.
Testimony about how the Russian occupation authorities force Russian passports on Ukrainian citizens.
Romania says it found possible drone fragments on its territory following Russian attack on Ukraine. It was not the first time that wreckage of drones, likely from Russia, has been found on Romanian territory.
Markus Jonnson: The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad. The Baltic Jammer is a Russian GPS jammer that since Dec 2023 has affected the navigation of 1000s of civilian and military aircraft.
US warns American companies to stop shipping products that may end up in Russian weapons. Despite wide-reaching import bans and sanctions, the U.S. and its allies have struggled to prevent Western components from ending up in Russian weapons used to attack Ukraine.
NATO official: No imminent threat of Russian attack on NATO, urges alliance to 'become more prepared.' Lieutenant Admiral Rob Bauer, chair of the NATO Military Committee, told reporters on March 29 that there are currently no signs that Russia is planning an attack on a NATO member, warning instead that the alliance must be prepared for future escalation.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia officially blamed Ukraine for the terrorist attack in Moscow Region and demanded: "to stop any support for terrorist activities and to compensate for the damage caused to the victims". Also, Russia demanded the arrest of the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Malyuk.
Russia launched a “counter-terrorism operation” in Dagestan, detaining three people by Sunday morning. “Security agencies detained three bandits who were planning a number of terrorist offences. During the inspection of the places where the criminals were detained, automatic weapons, ammunition and an improvised explosive device ready for use were found,” Russia’s National Anti-Terrorism Committee said, according to Russian news agencies. (Me: they are so incredibly competent at catching terrorists now. Read this with a heavy dose of sarcasm.)
Russia reportedly carries out mass deportations of migrants. Russia is conducting raids on raids on dormitories and apartments known to house Central Asian migrants and is carrying out mass deportations in response to the recent terrorist attack on Moscow, Russian independent media outlet Meduza reported on March 30.
Putin signed a decree on routine spring conscription into the army. From April 1 to July 15, 150,000 people between the ages of 18 and 30 (which was previously 27) are planned to be called up for military service in Russia.
Kommersant: The Russian Ministry of Agriculture warned about a shortage of grain seeds in Yakutia (Sakha Republic), The Jewish Autonomous Region, and Kamchatka.
Lavrov dismisses Zelensky’s peace plan, says those pushing it are ‘not serious.’ Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has dismissed Ukraine’s peace plan, saying it is pointless to ask for Moscow to withdraw its troops from areas it currently occupies.
Julia Davis: Meanwhile in Russia: Vladimir Solovyov and Vladislav Shurygin predicted striking NATO objects in the future. Shurygin told Solovyov that he listens to the song about the landing of Soviet troops in New York and Washington whenever he wants to cheer up.
Lavrov accuses Armenia of trying to ‘break off’ relations with Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has accused Armenia of “distorting history” in an attempt to “break off” relations with Moscow, he said in an interview on March 28. Armenia has further sought to distance itself from Russia - repeatedly accusing Moscow of being an unreliable partner.
Our governments are providing arms, ammunition and financial aid to Ukraine AND some Western companies are still supplying Russia with chemical products which end up in armaments and other military equipment used to kill Ukrainians we’re supposed to be defending. Secondary sanctions are necessary.
The Russian Orthodox Church holds the 25th congress of the "Russian world." They adopt a policy document: [in Russian]. I nearly spilled my coffee reading it. About every sentence is pure gold, but the gist is this:
1. Russia needs to increase its population to 600 million people. This is to be achieved through government propaganda of "traditional values," criminalization of abortions, and writing off mortgages for families who have more than 2 children.
2. Russia needs to stop non-Russian migration from Central Asia, and needs instead to attract "millions" of highly qualified cadres, presumably from the West or from among Russian expatriates, who will come because they share "traditional values" and are keen to integrate.
3. Russia needs to move away from modern cities and instead build individual houses with land in the countryside. 80% of the Russian population should live in such houses.
4. Western science - especially social science - should be scrutinized and rejected in favor of traditional Russian values.
5. Ukraine should be annexed.
6. Borders of the Russian world do not coincide with Russia's actual borders.
Allied Support
DW: Polish PM Donald Tusk spelling it out: “A new era is beginning - the pre-war era,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. According to him, the Russian invasion of Ukraine two years ago marked the beginning of a new, military era.
“I know it sounds overwhelming, especially for the younger generation, but we need to get used to the fact that a new era [in Europe ]: before the war] has begun,” he told Die Welt and several other European media. "I don't want to scare anyone, but war is no longer a concept from the past. Every day it becomes clearer. The war is real, and it started more than two years ago," Tusk added.
Belgium pledges $107 million to Ukraine for F-16 aircraft maintenance. Belgian Ministers Council approved the 25th assistance package for Ukraine, including 100 million euros ($107 million) for F-16 service through the international "fighter jet coalition," Belgian Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder announced on March 29.
Top US general says sending ATACMS to Ukraine not as risky as before. The risk of escalation related to the supply of long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles to Ukraine is not as high as it used to be, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Charles Brown said on March 28, according to Defense One.
France to send Ukraine air defense missiles, armored vehicles. Paris will "unlock a new batch of Aster 30 missiles" for the SAMP/T MAMBA system, the French equivalent of the U.S. Patriot, in response to Ukraine's air defense shortage.
"Since we are reinvesting massively in our armies with this €413 billion plan for 2024-2030, we have a lot of equipment that is still working and that is going to be taken out of our armies. Rather than scrapping them or giving them to other countries, we're giving them to the Ukrainian army. But I repeat: there has never been any lowering of our defense model," he emphasized.
The French Parliament still considers the option of sending its troops to Ukraine possible, head of the National Assembly of France, Yael Bron-Pivet said.
"In his statement,the President said that he does not rule out anything a priori. In the position that France has demonstrated, will demonstrate, and will continue to demonstrate until the end of the war, until victory, nothing is exclusive, everything remains possible. I will not further interpret the president's words, this position is clear enough," she emphasized.
EU bans Turkish airline due to links with Russia. The EU has banned the Turkish airline Southwind from flying in its airspace due to links with Russia, Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet reported on March 30.
Europe in ‘pre-war’ era, warns Tusk, says ‘literally any scenario is possible.’ Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned Europe is in a situation “not seen since 1945.” He said the continent needs to step up defense investment amid the continuing threat from Russia and uncertainty over U.S. support.
“I don’t want to scare anyone, but war is no longer a concept from the past. It’s real and it started over two years ago.” His comments came days after a Russian missile briefly breached Polish airspace during an attack on Ukraine, prompting Warsaw to put its forces on heightened readiness.
Latvian efforts to join NATO 20 y. ago, were led by an incredible woman: Vaira Vīķe-Freiberga. A WWII child refugee, a PhD in psychology, a professor at the University of Montreal and the president of Latvia. Watch her speech at NATO Prague summit in 2002.
I’m posting Vika-Freiberga’s historic speech because it’s a reminder of why states like Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland, understand what the value and importance is of NATO. They lived under Soviet control. We should listen. I’m also posting this because at this time there are anti-NATO narratives being disseminated more than ever before.
This is how you do political and psychological offensive operations. This is Czech President Petr Pavel, who is the architect of the ammunitions initiative that has secured 1 million artillery shells for Ukraine, worth $1.5 Billion, to be delivered sometime in April. He’s fearless and free. Just like Macron’s comments, you can be sure that Putin is paying attention to president Pavel as well.
The mafioso candidate that knows how to do EVERYTHING better than anyone else:
All the best with your research and writing Monique! Will look forward to whatever you can churn out this month. Timothy Snyder just posted some great links in his substack yesterday on ways to support Ukraine. Buckle up indeed 😱🤯😱🤯