Apr 1: The Saturday Edition
Day 402: Crimea Avdiivka Bucha 147K Lukashenko 9KWarCrimes MFTI Leninka Sandu Borrell Moskalenko CrimeaTatar Summit4Demo NorthKorea VDL China A&P RFE/RL Davis Belsat Michta CEPA Gic Beketova Barkin
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
General Staff: Russia's FSB conducting 'filtration' in occupied Crimea. In the Crimean town of Krasnoperekopsk, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) is conducting so-called filtration measures, which involve undressing, interrogating, and beating civilians, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said on March 30.
Official: Mandatory evacuation of families with children from Avdiivka to take place next week. A mandatory evacuation of families with children from Avdiivka will be carried out next week, Vitalii Barabash, head of the Avdiivka city military administration, said in an interview on March 30.
ISW: Putin unlikely to deploy troops from routine spring conscription cycle to Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on March 30 calling 147,000 citizens up for statutory military service. The Institute for the Study of War said in their update that the new conscripts will not increase Russian combat power in the short term.
UK Defense Ministry: Russia likely struggles to restore counter-battery radar stocks. Russia will likely struggle to replace the counter-battery radars it has lost in Ukraine as these systems depend on supplies of high-tech electronics halted by international sanctions.
The Kremlin says that Lukashenko’s idea of calling for a truce in Ukraine would not help Moscow achieve the goals of its invasion. Reuters quotes the Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov as claiming some elements of a peace plan proposed by China were unworkable because Ukraine was following western orders not to negotiate with Moscow.
Prosecutor General in Ukraine: Russian troops committed 9,000 war crimes in Bucha district. During the 33 days of occupation last year, Russian forces committed over 9,000 war crimes in Kyiv Oblast's city of Bucha and its district, Ukraine's Prosecutor General Andrii Kostin said.
Russia to chair UN Security Council in April. Russia will lead the UN Security Council in April, AFP News Agency reported on March 30. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called the move a "bad joke", adding that the world "can't be a safe place" with Russia as head of the UN Security Council.
Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, has rejected charges brought against President Vladimir Putin by the international criminal court (ICC) for overseeing the abduction of Ukrainian children.
He accused western suggestions that such children had been adopted of being “deliberately misleading”, adding:
In reality, we are talking about temporary preliminary guardianship or temporary guardianship. The main goal is for children to be in families, not in orphanages.
As Ukraine marked the first anniversary of the mass killing of Ukrainian civilians by Russian forces in Bucha, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield has made the case that Russia "should not be" a permanent member of the UN Security Council in an interview with AFP.
RFE/RL: Moscow court arrests Wall Street Journal reporter on suspicion of 'espionage.' Current Time, a project of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, reported on March 30 that the Wall Street Journal journalist Evan Gershkovich previously detained by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), was arrested for two months by the Lefortovo court in Moscow.
The Moscow-based STEM university MFTI has made Chinese study a graduation requirement, while apparently phasing out its Spanish, French, and German course offerings. The students are protesting the change as "absurd and harmful."
The Russian State Library (RSL or Leninka) will begin to store the most significant information about the war in Ukraine, which is distributed on the Internet and in Telegram channels. “We cannot allow history to be distorted. If we don’t do this, someone will rewrite it for us and do it electronically, ” Vadim Duda, head of the RSL , said in an interview with RBC about the project. According to him, now the library specialists are developing a methodology for selecting information sources and a system of filters for published materials.
The US has new information that Russia is actively seeking to acquire additional munitions from North Korea, the White House has said. White House spokesperson John Kirby, speaking to reporters, said Russia is seeking to send a delegation to North Korea, offering food in exchange for weapons. Washington is concerned that Pyongyang will provide the aid, he said.
Georgia has more than tripled its exports of automobiles to Russia in the first months of 2023 amid claims that Tbilisi is helping Moscow skirt Western sanctions, Kommersant reported Friday. Georgia delivered 978 passenger vehicles to Russia between January and February, worth a total value of $13.5 million. During the same period last year, Georgia exported just 209 vehicles to its northern neighbor. Automobile exports from Georgia also skyrocketed to nearby Armenia (2,800 this year compared to 365 between January and February 2022), Kazakhstan (2,600 compared to 935), and Kyrgyzstan (1,300 compared to 423).
Blinken calls on all Americans to leave Russia 'immediately' after journalist arrest. The U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on American citizens to leave Russia, after Moscow arrested Evan Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal reporter, on espionage charges.
The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, has also been speaking about the role China could play in helping to end the conflict in Ukraine. China cannot be a mediator in the war in Ukraine but could play the role of facilitator to reach a peace deal with Russia, Borrell said in a panel held in Madrid. He added:
China does not distinguish between aggressor and victim of aggression.
PMs of Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia arrive in Ukraine. Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger, Slovenian PM Robert Golob, and Croatian PM Andrej Plenkovic arrived in Ukraine on March 31 to take part in a summit marking the one-year anniversary of Ukraine's liberation of Bucha.
Cyprus has tightened the application of sanctions against Russians - the island began to freeze bank and brokerage accounts of Russian citizens if the amount on them exceeds 100 thousand euros.
The United Arab Emirates central bank said on Friday it will cancel the licence for a branch of Russia’s MTS bank, which it approved to operate last year and which was made subject of British and US sanctions in February.
Russian and Belarusian players will be allowed to compete at Wimbledon and the British grass-court tournaments this year after the All England Club and the LTA jointly opted to reverse their bans on players for this season’s events.
Japan is banning Russia-bound exports of steel, aluminium and aircraft including drones in its latest sanction against Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the trade ministry said on Friday.
North Macedonia approves transfer of combat helicopters to Ukraine. The government of North Macedonia has approved the transfer of combat helicopters to Ukraine, local media outlet Fokus reported on March 30.
Von der Leyen: no illusion of where China is heading…
1) Europe remains open to talking with China. Von der Leyen calls for a diplomatic “de-risking” ahead of her Beijing trip with Macron.
2) No illusions about China’s trajectory. Von der Leyen says China has “turned the page” on reform and opening; it is focused on security and control, changing world order.
3) Europe needs to focus on economic de-risking (not decoupling). Most trade is not risky. But she promises tougher approach to technology transfer/dual use goods plus ideas on EU economic security strategy by year-end. This includes narrow outbound investment regime that is focused on a “small number of sensitive technologies where investment can lead to the development of military capabilities that pose risks to national security”.
4) She rejects revival of CAI, saying “the world and China have changed significantly” since deal was sealed.
5) Von der Leyen is throwing down the gauntlet to those in Europe who still harbor illusions about partnership with China. These include Macron, with whom she will travel to Beijing next week. It is a bold move but her message is overdue. The reactions in France and Germany will be interesting.
If Ukraine’s security is not addressed the rest of the conversation is academic, for no private equity will invest in a country constantly under threat of another attack. Hence, instead of talking about Ukraine joining the EU we should focus on bringing it into NATO.
I find conversations about some sort of Western guarantee to Ukraine short of NATO membership to be vacuous. Consider why Finland and Sweden have asked to join NATO. They know very well that nothing short of the Article V guarantee is enough today to make them secure.
Also consider the trajectory postcommunist Europe has travelled: it was NATO membership followed by EU membership. Again, not that different from the experience of Western Europe after WWII where US security guarantee created conditions for economic recovery & ECSC/EC/EU.
Let’s also remember that with each passing day of this war, Ukraine is being destroyed ever more, including its human capital, its economy & its critical infrastructure. Ukrainians have been incredibly brave but every nation has a breaking point. So let’s focus on the war.
Let’s prioritize giving Ukraine the weapons, munitions and support it needs to achieve the strategic victory on the battlefield it urgently needs. Then we can begin to talk seriously about the end state and assess the country’s needs when it comes to postwar reconstruction.
Ukraine needs to break out from the current pattern of war of attrition that Russia is trying to impose on it around Bakhmut. Ukraine needs to fight on its own terms. For that it needs long-range fires, MBTs and airplanes. Let’s make sure it gets those now.
Declaration of the Summit for Democracy
As a testament to the shared desire of people and governments around the world to advance lasting peace, prosperity, and human dignity, the United States is pleased to join over 70 governments and authorities in endorsing the Summit for Democracy Declaration.
The Declaration affirms the endorsing parties’ political commitments to:
Protect human rights, media freedom, and rule of law;
Ensure accountability for human rights violations and abuses;
Support people, including in Ukraine, who stand for freedom and reject aggression;
Combat all forms of discrimination and exclusion, including by strengthening women’s rights;
Prevent and combat corruption;
Advance technology that works for, and not against democracy;
Defend against transnational threats, including foreign malign influence and foreign information manipulation;
Support free and fair elections; and
Address global challenges, including sustainable development, climate change, global health, and food security.
Programming note…
Over the past year, the resistance movement in Crimea has intensified. While Russian occupation forces continue to detain activists on the peninsula, Crimeans are fearlessly fighting back. Democracy Fellow Elina Beketova speaks with Olga Skrypnyk, the chairperson of the board of The Crimean Human Rights Group, to learn more about the resistance movement in Crimea and understand how international organizations can help support activists, local human rights defenders, and lawyers.