Apr 10: E-Stories
Day 411: Druzhkivka Karaichne Bakhmut Sumy trenches 1,200 PutinSecCouncil NATO Poland HUN UAchildren FoxMurdoch A&P UAArtHistory ISW UKDef NYTDocLeak Rutenberg Vadym Davis Fulda GlastnostGone UATV
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Yermak: Russian attack on Druzhkivka injures 2 civilians. The Russian military shelled the town of Druzhkivka in Donetsk Oblast using multiple launch rocket systems on April 9, according to President's Office Head Andriy Yermak.
Civilian hospitalized in critical condition after Russian shelling in Kharkiv Oblast. The injured man, a local from the village of Karaichne, is in his thirties.
General Staff: Russia tries to capture all of Bakhmut, fierce fighting rages for Marinka. Russian forces continue their offensive on Bakhmut in their latest attempts to completely capture the largely ruined city in Donetsk Oblast after eight months of hostilities, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on April 8.
Ukrainian troops down Russian drone in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian troops took down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone flying over Sumy Oblast on April 9, the Operational Command "North" reported.
ISW: Russian forces using artillery to offset degraded offensive capabilities. A Kremlin-backed commander and former Russian-installed proxy official Alexander Khodakovsky said on April 8 that the Russian command has decided to almost completely halt the daily issue of ammunition to areas of the front where there are no active offensive operations.
Satellite imagery shows new 70-kilometer Russian trench in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russia has dug a 70 kilometer long unbroken trench as part of their defensive lines in the occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, according to satellite imagery obtained by the Ukrainian outlet Center for Journalistic Investigations.
Ukrenergo: Russia has fired over 1,200 missiles, drones at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since October. It was “the most difficult heating season in the history of the Ukrainian energy system,” Ukrenergo said, adding that 43% of the energy grid was damaged. The U.K. Defense Ministry said in their latest update that Russia’s campaign to severely degrade Ukraine’s unified energy system within the winter has apparently failed.
ISW: Russia’s missile campaign to degrade Ukraine’s unified energy infrastructure has failed definitively, and Russia appears to have abandoned the effort. Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko announced on April 8 that Ukraine is resuming energy exports.
Ukraine claims Russia planning early graduations for military schools amid personnel shortage. Ukraine's General Staff claimed on April 8 that Russia is preparing to hold early graduations from some military schools amid a personnel shortage due to the "significant losses" it is facing on the battlefield.
Russia’s defence ministry claimed on Sunday it had destroyed a depot containing 70,000 tonnes of fuel near Zaporizhzhia as well as Ukrainian military warehouses in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Putin chaired a full security council session on 5 April, the first since 2022. Interior minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev presented the main report, a choice likely to be an attempt by the Kremlin to portray the situation in those territories as being “normalised”. The MoD adds: “… in reality, much of the area remains “an active combat zone, subject to partisan attacks, and with extremely limited access to basic services for many citizens.”
Putin’s plundered aircraft not our problem, insurance chief says. David Howden, who has built an £11bn eponymous insurance empire, said his industry cannot be expected to cover the cost of war, amid a row over Mr Putin’s seizure of hundreds of commercial aircraft. Russian authorities seized 500 commercial aircraft owned by overseas leasing companies shortly after the outbreak of war against Ukraine. The owners, mostly domiciled in Ireland, have tried to claim on insurance but have been rebuffed. They are now suing Lloyd’s of London insurers for their refusal to pay out up to $10bn (£8bn) in claims. A legal showdown in the High Court is scheduled for next year.
Zelensky: NATO can't protect Europe without Ukraine joining the alliance. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on April 8 that NATO could only guarantee the protection of Europe when Ukraine officially joins the 31-member alliance.
Poland suspends Ukrainian grain imports until July. Earlier news about the grain import suspension didn't specify the time frame of the agreement.
Hungary to strengthen control over Ukrainian grain imports. Hungary will introduce new measures to curb grain volumes coming from Ukraine, including tariffs and limits on imports of Ukrainian grain and oilseeds, Minister of Agriculture Istvan Nagy said on April 9.
More than 30 children have returned to Ukraine and reunited with their families after they were taken illegally to Russia, according to the Ukrainian organisation Save Ukraine. “Сhildren abducted by Russians from the Kherson and Kharkiv regions have been reunited with their families after several months of separation,” it said.
The Guardian: France denies its soldiers present in Ukraine. According to the Guardian, the French Defense Ministry denied the presence of its soldiers in Ukraine, responding to information from allegedly classified papers that were said to be leaked online earlier this week.
French defense chief speaks with Zaluzhniy, promises continued support. Ukraine's top commander Valeriy Zaluzhnyi spoke on the phone to France's Chief of Defense Staff Thierry Burkhard to discuss the situation on the front on April 8. Burkhard said he assured Zaluzhnyi of continued weapons and training support for the Ukrainian military.
Telegraph: Twitter lifts restrictions on Russian top government accounts. The Telegraph reported that Twitter had removed search restrictions on Russian President Vladimir Putin's official Twitter account, as well as Russia's Foreign Ministry and Russian Embassy in London accounts.
Siegfried Wolf, a Porsche supervisory board member, in a letter to Vladimir Putin, offered to help with the production of cars in Russia. He provided the head of the Kremlin with a deal with Volkswagen – for 60 billion rubles (about EUR 800 million) , Wolf would be able to “save the Russian automotive industry” and ensure the production of at least 270,000 cars per year in Russia, as reported by the portal of the daily "Spiegel", which claims to access Wolf's letter. Wolf presented the plan to Putin in January, beginning his three-page letter with the words "Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich!" This was almost a year after Putin attacked Ukraine.
Intelligence leak exposes U.S. spying on adversaries and allies. The Justice Department has opened an investigation into the leak. A spokeswoman for Discord, where the earliest known copies of the images were posted, declined to comment.
The documents also demonstrate what has long been understood but never publicly spelled out this precisely: The U.S. intelligence community has penetrated the Russian military and its commanders so deeply that it can warn Ukraine in advance of attacks and reliably assess the strengths and weaknesses of Russian forces.
The documents reveal that U.S. intelligence agencies are also aware of internal planning by the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence agency.
Ukrainian guerrillas prepare for liberation of Crimea, UATV
More than 20,000 volunteers have applied to join the 'Offensive Guard', an assault brigade whose main task is to liberate the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine. The Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People called on Ukrainian citizens to join the Kara-Dag brigade. Its area of responsibility is the south of the country, including Crimea annexed by Russia. In its official telegram channel, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Intelligence Directorate appealed to the residents of the temporarily occupied peninsula. Representatives of the Ukrainian intelligence thanked for, quote, 'quality cooperation and bringing the defeat of the occupants closer.' They asked them to continue to report information about the location of the occupation forces and equipment - headquarters, ammunition depots, and air defense forces. How Crimeans resist the Russian occupation authorities - in our story.
Europe must resist pressure to become ‘America’s followers,’ says Macron. Europe must reduce its dependency on the United States and avoid getting dragged into a confrontation between China and the U.S. over Taiwan, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview on his plane back from a three-day state visit to China.
Europe and transatlantic relations are essential to our prosperity. The EU and the US have the largest bilateral trade and investment relationship in the world today. They have the most integrated economic relationship in the world.
True, the US was overtaken by China in 2020 as Europe’s largest trading partner it terms of goods alone, but when one adds services and investment, the US remains the EU’s largest economic partner by far. The US-Europe relationship is a vital artery of the global economy.
Taken together, the economies of Europe and the US account for one third of global trade in goods and services and close to one third of the world’s GDP in terms of purchasing power. Bilateral trade and investment support millions of jobs in the EU and the US.
These are just some practical reasons why the US needs to remain anchored in both the Atlantic as well as the Pacific. Then come national security considerations. The two theaters are interconnected. A Russian victory in Ukraine would also undermine US credibility in Asia.
So please stop talking “pivots,” or “Europe doesn’t matter,” or “China is the future.” My take: The US and its democratic allies worldwide are the future. Historically democracies have shown themselves to be unbeatable when mobilized around a shared goal. [original thread]
Leaked Documents Reveal Depth of U.S. Spy Efforts and Russia’s Military Struggles
By By Julian E. Barnes, Helene Cooper, Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Michael Schwirtz and Eric Schmitt, New York Times, April 8, 2023
A trove of leaked Pentagon documents reveals how deeply Russia’s security and intelligence services have been penetrated by the United States, demonstrating Washington’s ability to warn Ukraine about planned strikes and providing an assessment of the strength of Moscow’s war machine.
The documents paint a portrait of a depleted Russian military that is struggling in its war in Ukraine and of a military apparatus that is deeply compromised. They contain daily real-time warnings to American intelligence agencies on the timing of Moscow’s strikes and even its specific targets. Such intelligence has allowed the United States to pass on to Ukraine crucial information on how to defend itself.
The documents lay bare the American assessment of a Ukrainian military that is also in dire straits. The documents, from late February and early March but found on social media sites in recent days, outline critical shortages of air defense munitions and discuss the gains being made by Russian troops around the eastern city of Bakhmut. The intelligence reports show that the United States also appears to be spying on Ukraine’s top military and political leaders, a reflection of Washington’s struggle to get a clear view of Ukraine’s fighting strategies.
The material reinforces an idea that intelligence officials have long acknowledged: The United States has a clearer understanding of Russian military operations than it does of Ukrainian planning. Intelligence collection is often difficult and sometimes wrong, but the trove of documents offers perhaps the most complete picture yet of the inner workings of the largest land war in Europe in decades. [continue reading]
How Fox Chased Its Audience Down the Rabbit Hole
By Jim Rutenberg, New York Times, April 6, 2023
Rupert Murdoch built an empire by giving viewers exactly what they wanted. But what they wanted — election lies and insurrection — put that empire (and the country) in peril.
On the evening of Nov. 19, 2020, Rupert Murdoch was watching TV and crawling the walls of his 18th-century mansion in the British countryside while under strict pandemic lockdown. The television hosts at Murdoch’s top cable network, Fox News, might have scoffed at such unyielding adherence to Covid protocols. But Jerry Hall, his soon-to-be fourth ex-wife and no fan of Fox or its conservative hosts, was insisting that Murdoch, approaching his 90th birthday, remain cautious.
The big story that day, as it had been every day in the two weeks since the election, was election theft, and now Rudolph W. Giuliani was giving a news conference at the Republican National Committee. With Sidney Powell, the right-wing attorney and conspiracy theorist, at his side, Giuliani, sweating profusely, black hair dye dripping down the side of his face, spun a wild fantasy about Joe Biden’s stealing the election from President Donald J. Trump. Dizzying in its delusional complexity, it centered on a supposed plot by the Clinton Foundation, George Soros and associates of Hugo Chávez to convert Trump votes into Biden votes by way of software from Smartmatic and voting machines from Dominion Voting Systems.
Murdoch wasn’t pleased. He had built the most powerful media empire on the planet by understanding what his audience wanted and giving it to them without fear or judgment. But Trump now appeared to be making a serious bid to overturn a legitimate election, and his chaos agents — his personal lawyer Giuliani chief among them — were creating dangerous new appetites. Now Murdoch was faced with holding the line on reporting the facts or following his audience all the way into the land of conspiracy theories. Neither choice was necessarily good for business. At 5:01 p.m. London time, he sent an email to his friend Saad Mohseni — an Afghan Australian media mogul sometimes referred to as the Afghan Rupert Murdoch — from his iPhone. “Just watched Giuliani press conference,” he wrote. “Stupid and damaging.” Shortly after, he sent another email, this one to his Fox News chief executive, Suzanne Scott: “Terrible stuff damaging everybody, I fear. Probably hurting us, too.” [continue reading]