Apr 12: E-Stories
Day 413: Zapo Kherson Egypt Prigozhin BlackSea BEL Belgorod Moskalkova Biden Sandu Gershkovich Iran Georgia BorderofSteel demining DEN GER India A&Ps Avdeeva ISW UKDef Antonova Khara Tokariuk Sabbagh
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russia strikes front-line towns in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian troops carried out an air strike on the front-line towns of Orikhiv and Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on the morning of April 11, according to the regional administration.
Suspilne reports that “the Russian army shelled Kherson at night and attacked Potemkin Island”. It adds “in total, during the day, the Russian military attacked the Kherson community three times”.
ISW: Russia continues to make gains in Bakhmut, but is suffering “significant” casualties in the process, the Institute for the Study of War, a US thinktank, says in its latest update.
Geolocated footage posted on 9 and 10 April shows that Russian forces made marginal advances northwest of Khromove (2km west of Bakhmut), in southwest Bakhmut, and north of Sacco i Vanzetti (15km north of Bakhmut.
Russia continues to prioritise operations around Donetsk in eastern Ukraine “expending significant resources for minimal gains”, the UK Ministry of Defence has said in its daily briefing. The MoD said that over the past seven days Russia had increased armoured assaults around Marinka, a small town around 12 miles (20km) south-west of Donetsk city.
ISW: Russia 'weaponizes religion' to discredit Ukraine, achieve military goals. Russia "continues to weaponize religion" to discredit Ukraine in the international arena and uses information operations about religion to achieve its military goals, the Institute for the Study of War wrote in its latest update.
General Staff: Russian proxies in occupied town of Donetsk Oblast fire medics for not taking Russian passports. Moscow-installed proxies in the Russian-occupied town of Snizhne, Donetsk Oblast, fired employees of a local hospital for not obtaining Russian citizenship, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on April 11.
RIA Novosti reports on its Telegram channel that yesterday an unknown drone fell near Belgorod airport. Citing emergency services, it said “there were no casualties, the fence was slightly damaged”.
WaPo: “Egypt President El-Sisi in February planned to produce 40,000 rockets for Russia and instructed officials to keep production and shipment secret ‘to avoid problems with the West.”
Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s growing cooperation with members of the A Just Russia – For Truth party likely indicates that Prigozhin seeks to gain control over the party.
The UN-brokered deal which enables Ukraine to export grain via the Black Sea is in a “critical state” because of Russia’s actions, the minister in charge of the initiative told the Guardian on Tuesday. A joint commission agrees the names of ships to be examined. On Tuesday, however, no inspections happened, Yurii Vaskov – Ukraine’s deputy infrastructure minister – said. He said the Ukrainian side submitted the names of three bulk grain carriers, as per the treaty agreement. The Russians, however, crossed out the names and submitted other inbound vessels from the current queue of 50. As a result no ships were allowed to continue on their journey, Vaskov said, in what amounts to a de facto blockade by Moscow.
Katia Glod: During a 6-hour-long meeting, Lukashenka extracted ‘security guarantees’ from Putin. Potential deployment of Russian tactical nukes to Belarus is a convenient pretext to demand that his rule in Belarus be ‘protected’ by force should his grip on power ever weaken.
The governors of the Kursk and Belgorod regions decided to cancel the military parades on May 9 in order not to "provoke the enemy" with the accumulation of military and equipment, russian media reports.
The Kremlin, appearing to pre-judge any judicial hearing, said on Tuesday that WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich had “violated Russian law” and been caught “red-handed”, after the US state department officially designated him as having been “wrongfully detained” by Russia.
Behind Bars NGO says prisoners are now signing 18-month contracts to fight in Ukraine. They were previously signing up for six months of service at a time.
Russian parliament to introduce electronic summonses for conscripts. The Russian State Duma will pass a law prohibiting men who ignore military enlistment summons from leaving the country, Russian independent media Meduza reported on April 10.
Aeroflot sends first Airbus plane for maintenance service in Iran. Tehran agreed to supply Russian airlines with spare parts and provide maintenance services to Russian planes in July 2022.
Ukraine trains 40,000 storm brigade troops for counter-offensive. Border of Steel is one of eight new storm brigades totalling 40,000 soldiers that Ukraine wants to use during a counter-offensive against Russian occupiers in coming weeks or months. The units have benefited from an aggressive recruiting campaign on social media and billboards with the aim of attracting highly motivated volunteers. The drive comes as Kyiv may face growing challenges recruiting new troops.
Defense minister: 5,000 specialists needed to demine Ukraine. Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov estimated that it could take up to 30 years to fully remove Russian-planted mines from Ukrainian territory.
European Parliament, Verhkovna Rada to hold historic joint session on April 12. The European Parliament announced that it will be holding a joint hybrid session on April 12 with the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, to discuss the nature and challenges of Ukraine's EU accession process.
Canada announces new small arms package for Ukraine. Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand announced a new military aid package for Ukraine on April 11 in cooperation with firearms manufacturer Colt Canada.
Denmark says West may decide on fighter jets for Ukraine 'before summer.' Acting Defense Minister of Denmark Troels Lund Poulsen said on April 11, as cited by Le Figaro, that the West could decide on the transfer of fighter jets to Ukraine "before the summer."
Germany delivers ammunition, reconnaissance drones to Ukraine. The German government reported transferring a new military aid package to Ukraine, which includes eight reconnaissance drones, another 23,520 rounds of 40-mm ammunition, and eight mobile antenna systems.
Ukraine's parliament has approved returning Hr 30,000 ($800) bonuses for soldiers "regardless of the tasks assigned to them or the areas of service," the lawmaker Oleksii Honcharenko said on April 10. Earlier, Ukrainian fighters serving outside an active combat zone stopped receiving the bonuses as a result of a controversial payment overhaul.
Opendatabot: 63 churches have switched to Orthodox Church of Ukraine in 2023. Sixty-three churches previously linked to the Moscow Patriarchate have joined the Orthodox Church of Ukraine so far in 2023, according to info published by Opendatabot.
More than 11m Ukrainian refugees have fled to Poland since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbour in February last year, according to Poland’s EU representative. About 87% of those crossing the border are women and children, it added.
Ukraine’s first deputy foreign minister, Emine Dzhaparova, has held talks with India’s minister for external affairs and culture, Meenakshi Lekhi, as part of a four-day visit in India – the first by a Ukrainian official since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February last year. Speaking yesterday, Dzhaparova said Ukraine would like India to be involved in helping resolve its conflict with Russia “to a great extent”. She also said the President Zelensky, had requested a phone conversation with India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi.
The EU sanctions against Russian aviation will remain until at least 2029. The airspace over Russia and Ukraine will not be opened until at least 2029, the European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation, commonly known as Eurocontrol forecasts. "Restrictions on flights in the airspace of Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and Moldova will remain in place until the end of the period in question (2029)," its forecast for 2023-2029 reads.
Poland’s prime minister has flown to the US for meetings aimed at strengthening the economic and defence cooperation of the two nations. Mateusz Morawiecki is due to meet the US vice-president, Kamala Harris, today at the White House. His three-day visit will also include meetings with the representatives of American defence companies.
Hungary’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, has arrived in Moscow for discussions about energy. The head of the Hungarian foreign ministry said he planned to meet the Russian deputy prime minister, Alexander Novak, and the head of Rosatom, Alexei Likhachev.
Up-date: Hungary’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, has announced new agreements to ensure the country’s continued access to Russian energy, a sign of the country’s continuing diplomatic and trade ties with Moscow amid the war in Ukraine.
Speaking at a news briefing in Moscow, Szijjártó said Russian state energy giant Gazprom would maintain an option to supply additional gas to Hungary this year on top of the shipments agreed under a long-term deal.
Romania’s supreme defence council has said it aims to buy the latest generation F-35 fighter planes to boost its air defences. “Having robust, credible, interoperable, flexible and efficient air defence operational capabilities … as part of our commitments as a Nato and EU state is key to Romania meeting its defence policy objectives,” Reuters reports the statement said.
President Maia Sandu called in a televised address on Monday for pro-EU Moldovans to take to the streets of Chișinău on May 21, during the European Moldova National Assembly. “I urge you to demonstrate, as a nation, a clear decision to be part of the European family, based on respect, stability, and economic collaboration. I urge you to show that the sole master of this land is the people of the Republic of Moldova,” Sandu said.
Chinese warplanes and navy ships were still in the waters around Taiwan, the island's defense ministry said after the end of three days of war games. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen criticized Beijing for its "irresponsible" behavior.
President Biden is due to commemorate the Good Friday Agreement during a four-day visit to the island of Ireland starting this evening. The American president will deliver three separate speeches during his time in Ireland: Wednesday at 2 p.m. (Brussels time) at Ulster University in Belfast; Thursday at 3 p.m. at the joint houses of Irish parliament in Dublin; and Friday at 10 p.m. outside the cathedral in Ballina, County Mayo.
Washington Post: Leaked US documents indicate Egypt secretly planned to supply rockets to Russia. Egypt President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi recently ordered subordinates to produce up to 40,000 rockets to be covertly shipped to Russia, according to a document exclusively obtained by the Washington Post.
More on the Discord Leak: the documents leaked from the Pentagon appears to have been initially shared on the video game chat platform Discord in an effort to win an argument about the war in Ukraine, according to open-source intelligence analysts. The documents had been shared on closed chatrooms hosted by Discord, a gamer-focused chat app. In one server, called “Minecraft Earth Map”, 10 of the documents were posted as early as 4 March, a month before they appeared on 4chan.
Dan Sabbagh, ‘They’re starting to die’: fears Ukraine’s drone supremacy may soon be over- The Guardian
Crouching in a freezing basement or risking it all on top of a nine-storey building, the drone squads in the war zone of Bakhmut are ubiquitous.
Some are forced to lurk a few hundred metres from, or even on, the frontline. Without them, Ukraine’s efforts to hold on to the embattled city would be much harder, perhaps impossible.
But the concern for Ukraine, according to three frontline drone operators deployed in the city over the winter, is that the Russians are close to countering the most popular models in operation, those made by the Chinese manufacturer DJI. “They’re adept and they are manufacturing these special jamming systems,” said Yaroslav, 31. The drone specialist said:
So actually, I believe like in three, four months, DJI will not be usable.
It means a scramble has been going on to look for replacements, prompting countless Ukrainian initiatives in probably the most dynamic aspect of the near 14-month war, a conflict in which drones have so far largely helped defenders. [continue reading]
This is the leaflet people find in their mailbox in Sverdlovsk Oasis, Russia. Wagner offers 240 thousand rubles a month (about 2700 euros)
Natalia Antonova, Why Incels Love Putin, The Bulwark
Russian fascism and right-wing chauvinism share an emotional core.
Although he is losing his genocidal war against Ukraine and experiencing increasing economic turmoil at home, Russian President Vladimir Putin has one thing going for him: The genocidal dictator has children, palaces, and many rumored mistresses—the power-hungry alpha male’s dream. Why, then, is he so admired by prominent “incels”—i.e., men who refer to themselves as “involuntarily celibate,” mostly because they are transparent misogynists who are rightfully spurned by women?
The Book of Matthew warns of false prophets: “You will know them by their fruits.” Today, you will also know them by their fans. And in Western society, where nobody is really forced to like Putin, some of his most ardent fans are deeply troubled people.
One of the most prominent and most troubled of Putin’s Western boosters is the white supremacist Nick Fuentes, who doesn’t hold back on his admiration for Putin’s war in Ukraine, and considers him to be a beacon of hope for the white race. Earlier this year, before he was fanning the flames of Kanye “I like Hitler” West’s anti-Semitic meltdown, Fuentes made comments about sex with women that eerily echo the ideology of the Kremlin. [continue reading]
Programming note…
Olga Tokariuk: “Ukrainian filmmakers are producing masterpieces. I watched the movie Pamfir in a cinema while in Ukraine and was impressed. The director, Dmytro Sukholytkyi-Sobchuk, is from the same town as me and I'm proud to know him. Pamfir will be released in the UK and Ireland on May 5.”
