Apr 14: E-Stories
Day 415: Bakhmut Zapo Enerhodar 8K RUhackers Navalny UAforests BlackSeaTalks Kherson Medvedev TheRecoveryArmy AlliedAid WorldBank NorthKorea A&P UKDef ISW EU Michta WJS MazaevaCepa Davis Davidzon
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Ukraine's border service issues another update of an important small victory in Bakhmut. Specific details of how Wagner tried to covertly break through defensive lines, but troops from the Border Guard spotted and counter attacked, killing seven, injuring twelve.
UK Defense Ministry: Russia completes 120-km defense line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian forces have built three lines of defensive zones across nearly 120 kilometers in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Oblast, but it is unclear if Russia can accumulate enough troops and artillery to support the defenses, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on April 12.
Russian forces continue to mine as much territory around occupied Enerhodar as possible, trying to create a defensive barrier against the Ukrainian counteroffensive. “If until now only the coastline and the territory around the perimeter of the nuclear plant were mined, now they have moved to mining the surrounding villages, forest strips, and forests. They are afraid of a counteroffensive of the Armed Forces and are trying to protect themselves,” Orlov said.
Military: Russia has used 8,000 long-range anti-aircraft missiles for Ukraine attacks since February 2022. Since February last year, Russia has used about 50% of its long-range anti-aircraft missiles, firing at least 8,000 at Ukraine, General Staff Deputy Chief Oleksii Hromov said on April 13, according to Ukrinform news outlet.
The Russian occupation authorities in Crimea decided to "cancel" this year's beach season and massively close beaches on the peninsula. "Swimming will be prohibited in the villages of Shtormove and Popivka in the west of Saky district of Crimea on the coast of the Black Sea and Lake Donuzlav," the Information Resistance group posted on Telegram.
Russian hackers gained access to private security cameras in Ukrainian cafes to gather intelligence on humanitarian aid convoys passing by. That’s according to AFP referring to a U.S. high-ranking security official, Ukrinform reports.
Alexei Navalny is grappling with a mystery ailment in jail that could be some sort of slow-acting poison, and has lost 8kg in weight in just over two weeks, his spokesperson Kira Yarmysh has said. “
Deputy FM, Sergei Ryabkov, has suggested Moscow may be willing to discuss a potential prisoner swap for Evan Gershkovich, after his trial.
Russia’s foreign ministry has issued a press release about the Black Sea grain initiative, in which it states “Russia reaffirms its position that there can be no discussion of the Black Sea Grain Initiative after 18 May without any progress regarding the five systematic problems” which it claims are blocking Russia’s agricultural products from being exported. The Russian demands are set out as:
reconnecting Rosselkhozbank to the Swift payment service
resuming supplies of agricultural machinery, spare parts and maintenance service
lifting restrictions on insurance and reinsurance, plus unblocking access to ports
restoring the work of the Tolyatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline
unblocking foreign assets and accounts of Russian companies related to the production and transportation of food and fertilisers
Andrei Medvedev, a former commander of Russian paramilitary group Wagner, has said on "Khodorkovsky Live", Russian opposition media, on April 12 that he recognizes the two alleged beheaders of a Ukrainian POW to also be Wagner soldiers with whom he was personally acquainted. The journalist said that Medvedev was helping to confirm the exact identities of the alleged.
“He unequivocally recognizes his colleagues there, he can tell they are Wagner PMC fighters by their characteristic call signs, by the way they talk, by what they voice over the radio,” Osechkin said.
Human Rights Watch: New evidence has emerged that Russian forces unlawfully detained and tortured people in a torture center and in other facilities in Kherson and vicinity during their occupation of the area between March and November 2022.
Victims and their family members told Human Rights Watch about torture and other ill-treatment at a pretrial detention center on Teploenerhetykiv Street in Kherson that local residents referred to as a “hole,” as well as a detention facility on Perekopska Street and makeshift facilities at the municipal administration building, a village school, and an airport hangar.
Center for Defence Strategies: 13,900 unemployed people in 16 regions are involved in “the Recovery Army” government project, whose goal is to rebuild Ukraine while providing employment opportunities.
Viasna, a human rights group says, Alexei Moskalyov, the father of a a Russian girl sent to an orphanage after drawing an antiwar sketch at school has been extradited from Belarus back to Russia.
Russians are massively cutting down forests in the occupied territories of Ukraine, writes The Wall Street Journal. This is recorded by satellites, law enforcement agencies of Ukraine and the State Government.
The European Union expanded the sanctions against Russia on Friday by adding the Wagner Group and the media outlet RIA FAN, both associated with Yevgeniy Prigozhin and Dimitriy Utkin, to its black list. As stated in the EU’s decision, the Wagner Group spearheaded the attacks against the Ukrainian towns of Soledar and Bakhmut in January 2023 and is actively participating in the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine.
"The Wagner Group is therefore responsible for supporting materially actions which undermine and threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine."
German media: Berlin to approve Polish transfer of fighter jets. The German government has decided to approve Poland's request to give Ukraine Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets that had originally belonged to the East German air force before reunification, German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on April 12.
Spain says 6 Leaopard-2 tanks will be shipped to, and in Ukraine before the end of April. Four more are being repaired and will also be sent soon.
Finland rules out transfer of F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets to Ukraine. Finnish Yle news reports on April 12 that the discussion about the transfer of F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets abroad is "currently irrelevant."
Norway's foreign ministry on Thursday said it had decided to expel 15 Russian embassy officials, adding that they were intelligence officers operating under the cover of diplomatic positions. Anniken Huitfeldt said:
We are not talking about regular diplomats, but intelligence officers under diplomatic cover. Their activities are a threat to Norwegian interests.
US, Latvia confirm military presence in Ukraine but not on battlefield. After intelligence documents leaked alleging over 90 NATO special forces deployed in Ukraine, U.S. and Latvian officials admitted to a small military presence in the country, but not in combat.
NYT: Polish PM says Ukraine needs South Korean artillery shells. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on April 12 he believes that only the direct intervention of President Biden would lead to an agreement for South Korea to make its artillery shells available to Ukraine.
The EU and the Swedish Presidency of the Council of the European Union are working intensively to find a legal way to enable the Russian assets frozen in connection with the aggression to be used in the reconstruction of Ukraine.
UK sanctions Medvedchuk's wife, those with financial links to Russian oligarchs. The U.K. government has announced a new sanctions package targeting Oksana Marchenko, the wife of key Putin ally Victor Medvedchuk, as well as relatives and financial fixers of major Russian oligarchs, including Roman Abramovich and Alisher Usmanov.
Italian investigators have identified 4-5 people who helped the son of Krasnoyarsk Governor Artem Uss to escape from house arrest in Milan, reports La Repubblica. According to the publication, a task force, in which there were at least ten people, participated in the escape of Uss. Investigators believe that there were 6-7 participants in the operation.
Julia Davis- Meanwhile in Russia: state TV propagandists on every channel aired multiple clips of Trump's interview with Tucker Carlson. Their main takeaway: "Donald said that America is tired of fighting Russia and should surrender." Watch:
North Korea on Thursday conducted its first intercontinental ballistic missile launch in a month, possibly testing a new more mobile, harder-to-detect missile for the first time, its neighbors said, as it extends its provocative run of weapons tests.
China has poured $50bn into chipmaking. It has also poached Taiwan’s chip engineers, executives and trade secrets. That brain drain has alarmed the Taiwanese government. The semiconductor industry is called Taiwan’s “silicon shield”, giving the world a big reason to defend the island. Yet chips are the industry most affected by the split between America and China. Parts of the shield are now moving abroad.
Bloomberg: The Public Broadcasting Service has followed National Public Radio in quitting Twitter after the social media network labeled both organizations as government-backed media.
Ukraine Has Helped Russia’s Minorities Find Their Voice – and an Audience
By Milana Mazaeva, CEPA, April 5, 2023
For people in Russia’s republics, the war in Ukraine has echoes of their own ill-treatment at the hands of the Kremlin, and a growing number are talking about it.
“I used to believe that the war in Chechnya was fought against terrorists.” Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sentences like that have flooded my inbox and social media feeds. Ranging from acquaintances to close friends, the authors admit that, until February 2022, they either accepted the official version or didn’t give much thought to the truth about Russia’s wars against Chechnya, my home republic.
Now, they are comparing the actions of Russian troops in Ukrainian towns and villages with those in Chechen settlements. They are digging through the archive and rewatching interviews with Dzhokhar Dudaev (president of the Chechen Republic from 1991 to 1996) in which he predicted events in Crimea and the war with Ukraine.
Chechnya is not the only region of Russia that has seen itself reflected in Russia’s latest war. People from other regions, which consider themselves slighted by Moscow on ethnic, territorial, or economic grounds, are now also airing their grievances. The feeling isn’t new – a decade ago the Russian journalist Olesya Gerasimenko wrote a series of reports on regional separatism, which were later published under the title “Not a United Russia“. What’s changed since the outbreak of war in Ukraine is that groups advocating secession or autonomous status are flourishing.
Two months after Russia’s invasion, Alexandra Garmazhapova, a journalist from the Republic of Buryatia, in eastern Siberia, published a post on her Instagram linking Ukraine to minorities in the Russian Federation. [continue reading]
The United States is a quintessentially maritime power. Our security and prosperity depend on being anchored in both the Atlantic and the Pacific. These two principal theaters of the World Ocean are interconnected -- they are defining parts of the global security equation.
At the heart of this equation lies Eurasia-the largest continental area on Earth that contains both modern industry and natural resources critical to the world's economy. In the 20th century the US went to war twice (WWI and WWII) to prevent one power from dominating Eurasia.
After 1945 when it turned out that the Soviet Union was poised to do what Nazi Germany failed to accomplish, the US committed to Europe yet again, guaranteeing its security through NATO for the duration of the Cold War. Post-1991 NATO enlargement stabilized Central Europe.
True, the US military as currently formatted can't fight two major wars at the same time. But the solution is not to abandon Europe. It's for Europe to rearm and assume the burden of conventional deterrence/defense, with the US providing the nuclear umbrella plus high-end enablers.
If the US loses credibility in Europe, our security guarantees in Asia will be questioned. Europe vs. Asia is not an either/or proposition; it's together/with. The Asia First proponents should consider the end result: They would effectively hand Eurasia over to Russia/China.
Also, this loss of credibility would likely force America back into the Western hemisphere, transforming the US into a regional power. If that's the goal of the Asia First policy, pls say it out loud. If not, let's focus on "burden-transferring" to Europe as I outlined above.
I'm increasingly concerned that domestic politics back home will trump the fundamental national security policy choices we are now facing. The war in Ukraine is a system-transforming war, and how we proceed will define security both in Europe and Asia. China is watching.