Apr 16: Sunday Stories
Day 417: Sloviansk Prigozhin spetsnaz Quzhou Nova RUeco KaraMurza Sloviansk SakharovCenter Uss Bandenia US FR HUN $1.2Bln Morawiecki A&P Avdeeva UKDef ISW Noel NYT Browder Pantucci AtlanticCouncil
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
The reportage is breath-taking. Have a look inside.
Stories we’re following…
Russian forces on the attack toward four towns in Donetsk Oblast. Russian troops in Donetsk Oblast are trying to advance toward the towns of Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka, the General Staff reported on April 15.
Yermak: Russia’s shelling of Kherson kills 2 people. Russian troops shelled the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, killing two women on April 15, according to President's Office Head Andriy Yermak. The wife and daughter of a sports doctor, Volodymyr Dudka, who worked for several football clubs killed.
2-year-old child among 11 killed, 22 injured in Russian missile strike on Sloviansk. The death toll in the April 14 Russian missile strike on Sloviansk has risen to eight, Donetsk Oblast Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said on national television. Twenty people have also been reported injured.
Ukrainian troops take at least six Russian soldiers captive near Marinka. General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the Tavria operational-strategic group, showed six Russian invaders taken captive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Marinka, Donetsk region.
A fire is reported to have broken out in the southern suburbs of the city of Kazan, Russia, where a tank training ground is located, as reported by the local news outlet InKazan on social media.
Wagner mercenary group has captured two more areas of Bakhmut, Russia’s defence ministry said on Saturday.
“On the Donetsk direction, the fiercest fighting has been continuing in the city of Artyomovsk,” the ministry said in a daily statement, according to Reuters.
“Wagner assault units successfully advanced, capturing two areas on the northern and southern outskirts of the city,” it said.
General Staff: Ukrainian forces repel over 50 Russian attacks. Russian troops are reportedly concentrating their efforts on conducting offensives toward Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian troops repelled 56 Russian attacks in those directions on April 14, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said in its morning update.
UK Defense Ministry: Russia intensifies assault on Bakhmut as Wagner, regular army improve cooperation. Ukrainian defenders still hold the western districts of the city, but they have come under particularly intense Russian artillery fire over the past 48 hours, the ministry wrote in its daily intelligence update.
Wagner Group founder: 'Ideal' option for Russia to cease active phase of war and go on defensive. Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin's press service published a text on April 14 that says the "ideal option" would be for Russia to cease the active phase of the war and "firmly entrench" itself in the territories it currently occupies.
The war in Ukraine has gutted Russia’s clandestine spetsnaz forces, and it will take Moscow years to rebuild them, according to classified U.S. assessments obtained by The Washington Post. The finding is among a cache of sensitive materials leaked online through the messaging platform Discord. U.S. officials attributed their assessments to Russian commanders’ overreliance on the specialized units, which have been put to use as part of front-line infantry formations. Those formations, like the Ukrainians, have suffered massive numbers of dead and wounded.
Russian media: Fire reported at tank training ground in Kazan. Local media reported that an explosion was heard in the area of a tank training ground in the Russian city of Kazan on April 15. A fire reportedly broke out at the site following the explosion.
Quzhou Nova, a Chinese company bought at least $7.4 million worth of copper alloy ingots from Debaltsevsky Plant of Metallurgical Engineering in Donetsk between Oct. 8, 2022 and March 24, 2023, that is subject to Western sanctions, according to Russian customs data reviewed by Reuters.
Past financial disclosures made by Russian officials have begun to disappear from government websites, just months after Putin signed a decree waiving a legal requirement that the declarations be published online. Each year, Russian government officials are required to declare their income and property. This changed in December when Putin suspended the mandatory publication of officials' declarations for the duration of the war in Ukraine.
Prosecutors have asked a Moscow court to sentence Vladimir Kara-Murza to 25 years in prison on treason charges that stem from his opposition to Putin’s government and his public criticism of its actions, including the invasion of Ukraine. A verdict is expected on April 17. Kara-Murza “is facing a monstrous prison term for no more than raising his voice and elevating the voices of others in Russia who disagree with the Kremlin, its war in Ukraine, and its escalating repression within Russia,” said Hugh Williamson, Europe and Central Asia director at Human Rights Watch, which called for his release.
The headquarters of Russian human rights group the Sakharov Center will close its doors to the public this weekend in response to an eviction order from local authorities as Russia’s wartime drive to suppress dissent shows no sign of ending. The eviction comes as the few human rights groups still operating inside Russia face intensifying state pressure in the wake of the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine.
Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu’s visit to Moscow starts today for three-day talks with his Russian counterpart and other military officials.
As per reporting in Newsweek, the Wagner Group is accused of making 100 Russian soldiers disappear after they refused to sign contracts with the notorious mercenaries.According to Wednesday's assessment from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), members of the Wagner Group have reportedly made 100 Russian forces disappear and they have been unaccounted for since Friday.
Italy’s justice minister has sent in inspectors to investigate why a Artem Uss, accused of smuggling military technology, managed to escape house arrest a day after an Italian court agreed to hand him over to US authorities. Investigators have not ruled out the involvement of Russian intelligence in his escape. Italy’s justice minister Carlo Nordio has now sent inspectors to Milan to investigate why Uss was placed under house arrest and not sent to prison instead, considering the high escape risk before his extradition.
Italian prosecutors charged 5 individuals with providing illegal financial services, including a London-based financial consultant whom OCCRP and IrpiMedia as well as partners tied to the sham Spanish banking outfit Bandenia which allegedly laundered money for criminal clients. [continue reading]
Shmyhal: Ukraine to receive more than $5 billion in additional aid from G7 countries. Finance ministers from the G7 countries have pledged more than $5 billion in additional aid to Ukraine, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported on April 14.
U.S. secretary of defence, Lloyd Austin, will meet with his counterparts in Sweden and Germany next week, including hosting a Ukraine-related defence meeting with top officials from nearly 50 countries, the Pentagon said in a statement on Friday.
Kuleba: Ukraine joining NATO does not require Membership Action Plan. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on April 14 that NATO's Membership Action Plan (MAP) is no longer a necessary step for Ukraine's path to joining the military alliance.
Der Spiegel: German company producing weapons for Ukraine suffers cyberattack.The German arms manufacturing company Rheinmetall was the victim of a cyberattack on April 14, according to Der Spiegel. Rheinmetall said its automotive sector was attacked, but its military division was not affected.
PM Shmyhal: France ready to provide Ukraine with 2 billion euros in financial aid. Part of the funds will be used for Ukraine’s reconstruction, Shmyhal said on April 14 after his meeting with French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire.
Netherlands, Switzerland pledge funds to IFC program for Ukraine’s economy. The Netherlands and Switzerland committed additional funds to a $2 billion International Finance Corporation's (IFC) program that is aimed at bolstering Ukraine’s economy, the organization said in a press release on April 14.
The Pentagon will invest $216 million to expand and modernize Aerojet Rocketdyne manufacturing facilities in Arkansas, Alabama, and Virginia in an attempt to boost production of rocket motors used in a host of missiles given to Ukraine.
Politico: Hungary might secretly help transfer arms to Ukraine while France, Italy delay air defense delivery. Hungary may be secretly helping with the delivery of weapons to Ukraine by letting allies use its airspace, according to unverified U.S. intelligence documents reviewed by Politico following their leak.
The head of the working group of the National Assembly (Milli Mejlis) on Azerbaijani-Ukrainian inter-parliamentary relations, Rufat Guliyev, and members of the group Kamran Bayramov, Sabir Hajiyev and Razi Nurullayev will visit Kyiv on April 17.
Many countries, including the US and France, continue to import nuclear energy-related goods and technology from Russia totalling $1.2 bln in 2022. The Russian nuclear sector, as well as state-owned enterprise Rosatom and its subsidiaries, have largely escaped sanctions. Additional trade data shows significant imports of Russian goods by the US, France and others under Harmonized System (HS) Code 284420, which includes enriched uranium (that is, uranium with higher concentrations of the uranium-235 isotope than mined uranium ore) used for the production of nuclear reactor fuel.
Proposals to immediately cut out all Russian nuclear supply are likely to be impractical. Instead, Western countries should work towards adopting, as soon as possible, policies which make Russian nuclear supplies less attractive, and which provide Western nuclear industry with the certainty and support it needs to make a sound business case for expanding conversion, enrichment, fuel fabrication and reactor export activities.[continue reading]
The Brazilian president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, has said the US should stop “encouraging war” in Ukraine “and start talking about peace”. Lula’s visit to China, Brazil’s top trading partner, focused on strengthening ties and spreading the message that “Brazil is back” as a key player on the global stage. More than 15 new agreements announced in the Brazil-China cooperation include infrastructure, health, technology, agribusiness and renewable energies.
AP: China pledges not to sell arms to any party of Russia's war in Ukraine. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said on April 14 that his country wouldn't sell weaponry to either side of the Russia-Ukraine war, the Associated Press reported. Speaking at a joint news conference with his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock, Qin also said Beijing would regulate exports of goods with dual civilian and military use.
Russia’s Far-Right Campaign in Europe
By Raffaello Pantucci, Lawfare, April 9, 2023
NATO continues to thwart and confront Russia’s aggression in Ukraine through sanctions, political pressure, arms supplies, and economic support for Kyiv. Moscow’s direct response outside the battlefield, however, has been relatively limited beyond rhetoric and increasingly strident statements and actions on the international stage. But Moscow clearly sees Europe as the soft underbelly of the alliance and has increasingly used soft and hard measures to try to create friction and strike back. One key vector that Moscow might exploit is the far and extreme right in Europe, which has often tended in a pro-Russian direction.
Any Russian action in support of these groups is unlikely to be obvious. A hint of what might be coming may be visible in a series of letter bombs in Spain late last year; the New York Times reported that U.S. intelligence initially linked the attacks to a Russian intelligence effort that was working with extreme right-wing actors, but the bombs were ultimately traced to a lone individual who was inspired in part by Russian propaganda. Other traces could be found in the group of German “sovereign citizens” or “Reichsbürgers,” who were planning to overthrow the government before their arrest in December 2022. At least one of the suspects in the case was linked to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party, and the group had sought to make contact with Russian authorities to solicit help stabilizing their government once they had taken over. Moscow has long cultivated links with different parts of Europe’s right wing, from mainstream politicians to proscribed terrorists. Given existing social tensions in Europe, this provides an ideal space for Russian meddling. [continue reading]
You can read the article here.
Programming note…
During his visit to Washington, Prime Minister of Poland Morawiecki joined the Atlantic Council's Ambassador Paula Dobriansky in a conversation.
Prime Minister Morawiecki told the Atlantic Council today: "If we lose Ukraine, we will lose peace for decades. Failure in Ukraine could be the beginning of the end of the golden age of the West." He added: "If Russia wins, we will be next." On Beijing's relations with Moscow, he noted: "I just hope that they are not going to cross the red line of delivering weapons to Russia."