Apr 17: E-Stories
Day 418: OrthoEaster Zaporizhzhia Bakhmut Mykolaiv RUPacFleet MelitopolJudge RUoccupation Ramstein Poland HUN Macron USpoll A&P Ukrinform Avdeeva UKDef NATO Iacoboni Gic Michta WSJ Nexta Sumlenny
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Ukraine celebrates Orthodox Easter. Ukraine's Orthodox Christians, which make up the majority of the country's population, are celebrating Easter on April 16, the second to occur since Russia launched its all-out war on February 24, 2022.
Residents of Orikhiv, a town in Zaporizhzhia region which is constantly under Russian fire, will celebrate Easter at a Point of Invincibility—as reported by Ukrinform.
To my friends in Ukraine, Canada, the US and the UK and to those in other countries across the EU who are celebrating today, my warm greetings.
Stories we’re following…
Russia has "re-energized" its nine-month-long assault on Bakhmut as the Russian Defense Ministry and the Wagner mercenary group appeared to have improved cooperation, a Western intelligence report said on April 14.
Bakhmut is now the epicenter of the war – have suffered "particularly intense Russian artillery fire over the previous 48 hours."
It added that the Ukrainian forces remaining in Bakhmut "face significant resupply issues" and had to make some "orderly withdrawals" from positions.
Russian forces on the attack toward four towns in Donetsk Oblast. Russian troops in Donetsk Oblast are trying to advance toward the towns of Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka, the General Staff reported on April 15. Bakhmut and Marinka are seeing the heaviest fighting.
Governor: Russia launches ‘massive attack’ on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia Oblast overnight on April 16, the Orthodox Easter, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governor Yurii Malashko said.
Energoatom: Russian forces begin deporting Ukrainian children from occupied Enerhodar. Russian troops started the forced deportation of children from schools and kindergartens in occupied Enerhodar, the town that hosts Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Ukraine's nuclear energy company Energoatom said.
Russia’s attacks on Mykolaiv Oblast kill 2 teenagers. Russian forces struck the Snihurivka community overnight on April 16, killing two teenagers born in 2005, Mykolaiv Oblast Governor Vitaly Kim said.
ISW on why Russia put its Pacific Fleet on readiness: "The Russian Pacific Fleet’s combat readiness checks are likely meant to signal to China that Russia supports Chinese security objectives in the Pacific and that Russia remains an equal military partner that can operate as a Pacific power despite the degradation of Russian military power in Ukraine," ISW said.
The Insider: A new video featuring Ukrainian soldiers who have been decapitated has emerged on the internet. Pro-Russian Telegram channels began to circulate the video on April 8th. It is believed that the video was captured by members of the Wagner PMC near Bakhmut. The video depicts a damaged armored vehicle, likely an M113 armored personnel carrier, as well as two decapitated bodies of Ukrainian soldiers.
The voice of the man filming the video has been altered, apparently to make it difficult to identify him. “Careful, he was f*cked up by a mine,” he warns his companion. “F*ck, no one has even come close yet... Oh, no, they did come close and cut their heads off!” the man with the camera goes on to say and laughs.
Russian occupation “authorities” have illegitimately issued around 40,000 Russian passports to Ukrainians in the occupied and largely destroyed city of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast, Mariupol mayoral advisor Petro Andriushchenko said in a Telegram post on April 14. “Here are the official numbers: around 40,000 passports have been distributed in Mariupol, with another 44,000 still pending. It's almost the entire population of Mariupol as of now. Where are the rest 200,000 people?”- he said.
Kommersant: 5 Ukrainians from occupied Melitopol to be tried for 'terrorism' in Russia. Five Ukrainians from occupied Melitopol will appear before a Russian court for allegedly being part of a "terrorist group," Russian state-affiliated media reported. According to the FSB, five former and current employees of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were preparing an attack on a humanitarian convoy in the Zaporozhye region and the Russian military who were guarding it. The defendants, from whom the weapons and explosives were confiscated, did not fully admit their guilt.
Ukraine has allegedly been finding an increasing number of components originating from China in Russian weapons recovered on the battlefield, Reuters reported on April 14. Citing a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky's office, Reuters wrote that there has been a noticeable shift away from Russia's use of western-made electronics to Chinese-made ones.
"Great Easter" prisoner exchange has taken place—senior presidential official, Andriy Yermak. “We are bringing back 130 of our people. It (the exchange) has been taking place in several stages over the past few days,” Yermak said on Telegram.
Zelensky calls for security guarantees ahead of NATO summit. In his evening address, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the member states' position on security guarantees should be ambitious enough to ensure security in Europe.
Ahead of the Ramstein group meeting, the team of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine visited Greece, Cyprus, Spain, Romania to conduct negotiations on the supply of weapons and other forms of support that strengthen the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Reznikov met with leaders of government agencies, manufacturers, and the media to gain as wide a circle of support as possible.
Zelensky imposes sanctions against Russian athletes, search engine. President Zelensky signed two decrees on April 15, approving a proposal by the National Security and Defense Council to impose sanctions on more than 690 Russian individuals and legal entities.
Zelensky holds phone call with Macron, discusses his recent visit to China. President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron had an “hour and a half” phone call on April 15, discussing the results of Macron’s recent visit to China and the situation on the front line in Ukraine.
Minister: Hungary agrees not to block transit of Ukrainian grain. Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi on April 16 held an online meeting with Hungarian Agriculture Minister Istvan Nagy to discuss Hungary's ban on grain imports from Ukraine.
After Hungary (then recinded) and Poland banned the import of agricultural products from Ukraine, the EU Commission stated that trade policy falls within the exclusive competence of the EU and unilateral actions of states are unacceptable.
Bulgaria is considering halting Ukrainian grain imports, Reuters reports, after Poland and Hungary decided to ban grain and other food imports from Ukraine to protect their own agricultural sectors.
More than 50% of American voters showed strong support for Ukrainian and Georgian ambitions to join NATO, and for continued U.S. involvement in the alliance, according to a Redfield & Wilton Strategies for Newsweek. It found broad support for NATO expansion despite growing calls for the U.S. to prioritize the Asia-Pacific region due to its simmering confrontation with China. Respondents also said that the defense of Ukraine is "vital" to American national interests, with 27 percent strongly agreeing and 29 percent agreeing.
The number of member countries of the group working on creating a special tribunal for the Russian crime of aggression has increased to 34— Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, as reported by European Pravda. Kuleba said that another country has joined the group – Costa Rica.
Stefania Battistini captured this photo, “Resistence”, of a woman who is selling flowers in front of her flower shop that has been destroyed by the Russian forces in Bashtanka.
Jacopo Iacoboni on Uss’s escape
Uss had been caught but, incredibly, Italy let him escape. For quite some time, he had been left with two mobile phones and credit cards, La Stampa reports. He had an electronic surveillance bracelet on but without GPS. The US had warned the Italian authorities of the high risk of escape.
According to some Western intelligence sources, it was Uss himself who connected with the Russian services [to plan the escape]. In any case, for several months La Stampa had been reporting on Uss’s obvious flight risk, but nothing had been done, especially by the judiciary. Nor by the government.
A reminder from Ariana that this war has really been going on since 2014.
Olya Vorozhbyt: Here's what left from a church in Komyshuvakha, a town 30 km near Zaporizhzhia after today's strike by Russians. Most of Ukrainians celebrate Easter today. Russians say they celebrate Easter today too. But that's just verbal declaration. Their true beliefs you see on the photo.
Andrew Michta, Why is the West self-deterring in Ukraine?
With the war in Ukraine in its second year, much of the talk in Western capitals is about the Ukrainian counteroffensive that is likely to happen this spring. But a wrongheaded view of the war in those same capitals is undermining the counteroffensive before it can even begin. One of the reasons this war is still ongoing is the West’s extreme caution when it comes to resourcing the Ukrainian military with the weapons and munitions it needs to break through enemy lines and render the Russian army combat ineffective so that Ukrainian forces can liberate their country. Ukrainians have shown incredible patriotism, courage, and resilience. But the story of their fight is also that of the West’s failure to balance the risk of potential horizontal and vertical escalation in this conflict against the stakes in this war, not just for Europe but also for global stability and security. The West has given Ukraine enough to survive, but not enough to win. This strategy, though it seems reasonable today, will likely require the world to pay a much higher price in blood and treasure in the coming years. [continue reading]
Wall Street Journal interview with the Gershkovich family
The family of Evan Gershkovich have spoken of their worries after he was arrested and how they are optimistic that he will be freed. Gerschovich’s parents separately fled the Soviet Union to the US in 1979 and met in New York City. Their journalist son was arrested on 29 March in the Russian city of Ekaterinburg on suspicion of espionage. He was accused of trying to obtain classified information about a military facility. Gershkovich, the WSJ and US officials have denied the charges and say he is being wrongly held.
You can also watch it here on the Wall Street Journal website.
Programming note
Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism Using Mentorship, RUSI
Hosts Jessica White and Raffaello Pantucci are joined by Emily Winterbotham and Martine Zeuthen to discuss how and why mentorship efforts, often including a variety of supportive elements such as psycho-social or vocational mentorship, are one of the types of preventing and countering violent extremism approaches that maintain a positive track record for effectiveness and impact.
Click here to listen to the podcast.