Apr 2: Sunday Stories
Day 403: 8Oblasts Avdiivka Dzhankoi ZooPark Milley Gershkovich RUmod Aukus/FR Shoigu UA-NATO Finland Macron A&P UAArtHistory Delaney Scherba UKDef Metsola Davis I-Stories RUSI Kaikkonen Sandu
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
The Kyiv Independent reports that on April 1:
Russian forces attacked eight regions across Ukraine over the past 24 hours, killing at least five people and wounding 10, according to regional governors’ reports on April 1.
Among the killed was a five-month-old boy and his grandmother in the front-line city of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko reported, adding that the parents of the newborn were wounded.
Rubryka: russian forces attacked a boat, injuring two refugees escaping from the occupied Kherson region. They were sailing from their private houses on the Dnipro River's left bank. Civilians were on their way to Kherson. russians noticed the boat and started shooting at it.
General Staff: Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka under heavy fire. The General Staff reported on April 1 that the fiercest battles take place in Donetsk Oblast, near the strategic city of Bakhmut, as well as Avdiivka and Marinka.
Southern Command: Explosions in Crimean Dzhankoi hinder Russia's transfer of weapons. Recent explosions in the Crimean town of Dzhankoi have restricted Russia's ability to transport military equipment and ammunition, particularly Kalibr missiles, said Ukraine's Southern Command spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk.
Russia has lost at least six Zoopark-1M counter-battery radar and will struggle to regenerate them because of sanctions, the UK Ministry of Defence has said in its latest intelligence update.
Air Force: Ukraine starts using US-made ‘smart bomb’ kits. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat confirmed on March 31 that Ukraine was already using U.S.-made Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM-ER) guided kits for aerial bombs.
Top US general says Ukraine victory unlikely this year. U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said in an interview with Defense One that Ukraine is unlikely to expel all Russian troops from its territory this year.
Russia names US as main security threat in new foreign policy doctrine. Putin on March 31 signed a decree on a new version of the Russian Foreign Policy Concept, listing the United States as the main security threat to Russia and "the just development of mankind," CNN reported.
The Russian Federation intends to give priority to the elimination of vestiges of the dominance of the United States and other unfriendly countries in world politics.
"The new concept of foreign policy provides for the possibility of symmetrical and asymmetric measures in response to unfriendly actions against the Russian Federation," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after presenting Putin with the updated doctrine.
The document also described Russia as a “state civilisation” tasked with defending what it called the “Russian world” of related cultures on the Eurasian continent.
Joe Biden has called on Russia to release Evan Gershkovich, facing 20 years in jail. “Let him go,” the US president said, when asked about the case. The White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, has described the espionage charges as “ridiculous”.
Russian Defense Minister says 'measures being taken' to increase ammunition stocks. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on April 1 that "necessary measures are being taken" to increase the Russian army's ammunition stocks for its war against Ukraine.
The Russian authorities will reportedly begin issuing electronic military summonses for the first time as part of its routine spring conscription drive. “In preparation for the spring conscription campaign, which will begin on April 1, military commissariat employees have been tasked with sending notifications to citizens in an electronic format,” military spokesman Vladimir Tsimlyansky said at a briefing.
IMF approves more than $15 billion program for Ukraine. Around $2.7 billion will be immediately disbursed, the IMF wrote in its statement, to sustain economic and financial stability "at a time of exceptionally high uncertainty" in Ukraine.
German defense minister: NATO countries to send total of 160 tanks to Ukraine. NATO countries plan to send two battalions of German Leopard-2 battle tanks and four battalions of Leopard-1 tanks to Ukraine, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told Die Welt on April 1.
Europol identifies 150 suspects of Russian war crimes in Ukraine. Europol, Europe's law enforcement cooperation agency, analyzed 7,000 videos and pictures and gathered the testimony of 550 witnesses in Ukraine to come up with a list of 150 Russian war crimes suspects.
Moscow Patriarchate representatives again block access to Kyiv monastery. A commission of Ukraine's Culture Ministry charged with conducting an inventory of the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra property was once again denied access by representatives of the Russian-controlled Ukrainian Orthodox Chkyivurch of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP), RFE/RL reported.
Ukraine sanctions former Motor Sich head, Russian companies. President Zelensky signed a decree on April 1 approving a proposal to sanction former Motor Sich President Viacheslav Bohuslaiev, as well as more than 230 other Russian and Ukrainian nationals.
Ukrainian athletes to boycott joint competitions with Russians, Belarusians. The Ukrainian government has decided that Ukrainian athletes must boycott tournaments with Russian or Belarusian participants, including selection for the 2024 Olympics, Oleh Nemchinov, Minister of the Cabinet of Ministers, said on national television.
France Joins AUKUS Submarine Program. The French government has joined the previously trinational AUKUS submarine program. Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States are already involved in the 368 billion dollar project. The plan is to build and deliver a new class of nuclear-powered attack submarine for the respective navies. Now the French Navy (Marine Nationale) could receive up to four submarines under the plans.
Reuters: US could announce more than $2 billion new military aid for Ukraine. A new $2.6 billion U.S. military aid package that could include air surveillance radars, anti-tank rockets, and fuel trucks could be announced on April 3, Reuters reported, citing undisclosed U.S. officials.
Slovenia, Ukraine sign declaration supporting Ukraine’s move toward EU, NATO membership. Slovenia is the ninth country to sign the declaration of support for Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration, after the Czech Republic, Belgium, Montenegro, Lithuania, Poland, Italy, Latvia and Iceland.
Expulsions of Russian intelligence officers and visa refusals have substantially weakened Moscow’s intelligence operations in Finland in the past year, the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service said Thursday. “The Russian intelligence station (in Finland) shrank to about half of its former size last year,” SUPO Director Antti Pelttari said, adding that the main reason for the decline were expulsions of suspected spies and visa refusals on the advice of his agency.
Julia Davis: Meanwhile in Russia: hosts and pundits on state TV discussed the arrest of Evan Gershkovich for alleged "espionage" and hoped out loud that their spies, working undercover as reporters in the United States, are more sophisticated and don't get caught.
Important Stories translation: Who creates programs for the Russian special services to isolate the Internet, spy on users and promote propaganda articles- Olga Lautman, Russia’s War on Democracy
AUTHOR: ROMAN ANIN, Translation of Important Stories Investigation:
Just days after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung was contacted by an anonymous source. He said that he wanted to share documents about spyware, which is being developed by order of the Russian special services. “I decided to give you this information because of the events in Ukraine,” he immediately explained his motivation.
Later, the source handed over to journalists an archive of documents about a little-known IT company from Moscow: “The GRU and the FSB are behind it,” he explained. This is how we ended up with the archive of Vulkan, a small company that, on behalf of the Ministry of Defense, the FSB, and the Foreign Intelligence Service, develops software for Russian cyberattacks, managing a troll factory and isolating the Internet.
"Important Stories", together with journalists from the Süddeutsche Zeitung, The Guardian, Washington Post, Paper Trail Media, and other publications, studied the archive. [continue reading]
Preliminary Lessons from Russia’s Unconventional Operations During the Russo-Ukrainian War, February 2022–February 2023- RUSI
By Dr Jack Watling , Oleksandr V Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 sent shockwaves around the world as states reacted to the return of high-intensity state-on-state conventional warfare on the European continent. Less attention has been paid to the unconventional aspects of this conflict – and yet, these are essential to understanding Russian actions and methods. The invasion itself can be seen as the intended culmination of a long unconventional campaign waged by Russia against Ukraine. The unconventional operations during the war have often been critical to Russia’s successive theories of victory, even as its conventional forces have failed to achieve their objectives on the battlefield. For those wishing to understand the Russian way of war and to learn lessons for their own defence, it is important to study this unconventional side of the conflict. [continue reading]
