Apr 20: E-Stories

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Catching up…

EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.

Dear Readers, thanks for your patience. I’m continuing work on my research, which must be completed by next week but I’ve decided to take a little creative break and I’m catching up with news in Ukraine and elsewhere.

I’m delighted that the U.S. has finally moved forward on passing the aid bill for Ukraine, although I think that it’ll be rough going for Ukraine in the next few weeks. Let’s cross fingers that the aid gets to them before it’s too late. As the weather gets drier, the probability of a Russian attack will increase. They’re almost ready to go, and awaiting the right conditions.

I also believe that intelligence has indicated this to be the case, which would explain why Ukraine’s allies are moving quickly now. Like Olga, I hope they have this stuff already close to Ukraine’s border ready to be shipped in immediately.

My thanks to those who called their representatives to get this aid on the table for a vote. Owing to attacks against the clergy and places of worship in Ukraine, I know that people from various religious denominations have put pressure on Speaker Johnson to get aid to Ukraine passed quickly. That is part of the reason he decided to move forward on it.

CIA Director: Ukraine could lose war by end of 2024 without aid. CIA Director William Burns delivered a warning message to lawmakers in DC, emphasizing the urgency of approving aid to Ukraine to prevent potential loss in the war against Russia.

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Stories we’re following…

UPDATE: Russian missile attack on Chernihiv kills 18, injures 78, including children. In total, 78 people, including four children, were confirmed injured as of the morning of April 18. The search and rescue operation was completed at around 9:15 a.m. local time.

Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 12, injure 35 over past day. Russia targeted a total of nine Ukrainian oblasts – Odesa, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kherson, and Donetsk. Casualties were reported in the latter five regions. On April 17, the Russians attacked Kharkiv: the picture of the Russian attack on a hospital.

On April 19th, during the day, Russian forces launched a missile strike on the "Pivdennyy" seaport in Odesa Oblast. There are hits on port facilities, affecting not only Ukrainian but also Singapore-owned infrastructure. One person was injured.

CDS Report: Due to network restrictions on the operator's transmission lines, scheduled power outages were implemented in Kharkiv Oblast and in Kryvyi Rih on April 18. They continue to apply. Emergency assistance was sought from Romania, Poland, and Slovakia. The amount of imported electricity accounted for approximately 3% of the daily consumption. As of the morning of April 19, emergency assistance from the transmission operators of these countries was still being utilized.

161 Ukrainian children that were abducted to Russia and Belarus were found in Germany with the help of German law enforcement agencies, says Ivan Vyhivskyi, the Chief of the National Police of Ukraine.

In Odesa, Russia attacked and destroyed two terminals filled with agricultural products intended to be exported to both Asian and African countries.

Military intelligence: Ukraine destroys missile launchers, radar stations at Russian military airfield in Crimea. Ukraine destroyed several units of military equipment in an attack on a Russian military airfield in Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea on April 17, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported.

Noel Report: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 50 UAVs were shot down overnight. The breakdown of the downed drones is as follows: 26 over the Bilhorod region, 10 over the Bryansk region, 8 over the Kursk region, 2 over the Tula region, and one each over the territories of Smolensk, Ryazan, Kaluga, and Moscow regions.

Source: Alex Kokcharov

Russian officials said Ukrainian drones also attacked an electrical substation in Bryansk oblast, about 50km inside Russia. Unconfirmed videos and pictures online showed a large fire. In line with Moscow’s usual information tactics, the ministry claimed all the drones were shot down, while local officials said any damage was only done by falling debris from the intercepted UAVs. There was no independent confirmation.

Lukoil and Neftika oil depots in Kardymovo, east of Smolensk, will bring less revenue to fuel Russia’s war machine.

IAEA: Reports of attempted drone attack just outside Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on April 18 that it had received a report that the training center of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant had been targeted by an "attempted drone attack," causing no casualties or damage.

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Combat Situation Update

Top Russian colonel reportedly killed in Ukrainian strike on occupied Luhansk. Kropotov, the commander of the 59th Guards Communications Brigade, was killed in a Ukrainian strike on his headquarters on April 13, according to a Telegram post from a Ukrainian colonel, Anatolii Shtefan "Shtirlitz."

CDS Report: Judging by the pace of the enemy's advance, it appears unlikely they will reach Lyman and Shandryholov before the onset of summer. This suggests they may not successfully conclude their shaping operation and create favorable conditions for an offensive from the northeast towards Sloviansk by then.

• Russian forces initiated attacks to pin down the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the flanks of Ocheretyne, engaging Ukrainian troops near Berdychi, Novokalynove, and Keramik. This aims to facilitate a relatively swift advance towards Ocheretyne.

• The adversary's attempts to encircle Chasiv Yar from three directions have not yielded the desired results for the Russian military command, with the actions of their powerful flanking groups proving largely ineffective so far.

ISW: The US can quickly resume providing military aid to let Ukraine stabilize the front lines near the current locations. Or it can let the Russians defeat the Ukrainian military and drive toward the NATO borders from the Black Sea to central Poland. There is no third option.

• The risks of a Russian attack against NATO in the near future would rise dramatically if the US allows Russia to defeat Ukraine now, and the challenge of defending the Baltic States in particular could become almost insurmountable.

• These long-term risks and costs far outweigh the short-term price of resuming assistance to Ukraine.

An intelligence source told Reuters the plane was hit with a modified S-200 Soviet-era long-range surface-to-air missile system. Unconfirmed social media footage showed a warplane with its tail on fire spiralling towards the ground. The Russian defence ministry confirmed the crash in Russia’s southern Stavropol region but claimed it appeared to have been caused by a technical malfunction. Four aircrew ejected with one dead, two rescued and another missing, the Russian regional governor said.

Air Force: Ukraine downs Russian Tu-22M3 bomber for first time. Ukrainian anti-aircraft units shot down a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber for the first time, Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk said on April 19.

Budanov said that the Russian Tu-22M3 bomber was shot down at a distance of more than 300 kilometers. The operation to ambush this aircraft lasted for a week, waiting for it to reach the right position before striking at it, just like the A-50 was hit and destroyed.

Reuters: Ukraine says Russia's use of illegal tear gas on battlefield is increasing. Ukrainian military officials have previously said that Russia is deploying chemical weapons on the battlefield in violation of the 1925 Geneva Protocol. The usage of riot control gas in war is also banned under the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention, which Russia is a signatory of.

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Behind the Lines

Media: Pentagon ready to quickly send Ukraine arms if Congress approves aid bill. According to one of the unnamed U.S. defense officials, some of the proposed military equipment is located in Europe and could reach Ukraine within days after a successful vote, while other material would likely take a few weeks.

Senate Democrats back Johnson's foreign aid bills. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on April 19 that Senate Democrats will support House Speaker Mike Johnson's series of bills that includes aid for Ukraine, Israel, and other priorities if they pass the House.

Guardian: Half of British military defense fund for Ukraine remains unused. More than half of the U.K.'s 900 million pound (over $1 billion) military fund for Ukraine remains unused due to bureaucratic delays in handing out contracts, the Guardian reports.

German drone manufacturer opens factory in Ukraine. Quantum Systems, a German drone manufacturer, opened a drone factory and development hub in Ukraine on April 18, the company announced.

Zarina Zabrisky: I continue sharing the stories of invincible Kherson. Meet a young dentist Alyona: her clinic was shelled and she treats patients to the sounds of explosions. To stay balanced, Alyona teaches dance. Women in her class are nurses and ambulance staff.

During his national campaign launch event, Orban said that the West is one step away of sending troops to Ukraine. "We are one step away from the West sending troops to Ukraine. We want peace. Hungary will not enter this war on the side of anyone." (Me: He’s probably not spent a cent on defence since taking office, preferring to bend the economy to his needs. There won’t be a repeat of 1968: if Ukraine falls, they’ll roll into Hungary and he’ll let them in.)

Russian media: American pro-Kremlin fighter, propagandist killed in Donetsk Oblast. Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan confirmed his death but did not provide any further details. (Me: Subsequent information has been released, and the man was raped by his own unit and then killed. I had been following this man’s reports from Donetsk because I was curious as to why someone would want to live in occupied territory, and support the invaders. He’d been there since 2016.)

Shashank Joshi: New Mandiant report. Shows that GRU-linked hackers may have messed with control systems at water utilities in the US and Poland (17-18 Jan), and credibly claimed (2 Mar) to have interfered with a dam in France.

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Meanwhile in Russia

The authorities of Kurgan announced the evacuation of residents from houses located near the dam in the area of ​​the Kirov Bridge, according to the website of the regional government. “Attention to residents of houses adjacent to the dam in the Kirov Bridge area! There was a threat of flooding. Evacuation is underway,” the message says.

The Russian Ministry of Justice will consider the issue of including billionaire Vadim Moshkovich in the list of “foreign agents,” Izvestia writes with reference to the department’s document. In Deputy Mikhail Delyagin’s opinion, Moshkovich’s offshore accounts are controlled by Western intelligence services.

Blinken: China 'primary contributor' to Russia's military-industrial complex. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that China is supplying Russia with semiconductors and other dual-use technologies that can be used for military purposes.

In 2023, aircraft parts worth almost $2 billion were imported into Russia from abroad, and most of them—almost $1.5 billion—were allegedly sent from Gabon by a single local company, according to customs data of the Russian Federation, which was reviewed by The Moscow Times. The company listed in the Russian customs declarations probably does not exist at all - there is no data about it in the local database of legal entities in Gabon. At the same time, the amount of imports exceeds half of Gabon’s annual budget. Russian companies for which spare parts were imported from Africa have signs of shell companies. 

Bloomberg: Russian diesel exports continue to drop amid Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries. According to Kpler, Russia exported around 740,000 barrels of crude per day in the 10 days leading up to April 13, a 25% decrease from the same period the previous four years.

Julia Davis: Despite Tucker Carlson gushing about shiny shopping carts he saw in Moscow, state TV pundits begrudgingly admit that Russia is struggling and increasingly resembles the late USSR. When they say Russia is in a "pre-war" state, they mean against the West.

Reuters: Italy's UniCredit expecting push from ECB to reduce business in Russia. The news follows a similar warning received by Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) on April 18 that the ECB was requesting an accelerated wind-down of its business in Russia.

Republican lawmaker hits out at colleagues: 'They would like to see Russia win'. In an interview with C-SPAN, Don Bacon laid out the dire situation Ukraine finds itself in on the battlefield, saying if the bills don’t pass “the Russians will be in Kyiv.”

Marjorie Taylor Greene mocked by fellow lawmaker's extreme Ukraine aid bill amendments. A U.S. lawmaker has mocked Marjorie Taylor Greene by adding an amendment to the Ukraine aid bill requiring that she be appointed "Vladimir Putin’s Special Envoy to the United States Congress."

Olga Skabeeva gave a master class on propaganda for young students in Kaluga. She openly stated that Russian strikes on Ukraine are just a matter of interpretation and that the strike itself does not matter, only our attitude towards it. Thus, Skabeeva paints a picture of Russian propaganda - all statements, regardless of the events described, must favor state interests.

EU to introduce new sanctions against Iran after its attack on Israel, reiterates 'full' support for Ukraine. The European Council in a statement released after the first day of a summit in Brussels condemned Iran's attack and expressed full solidarity with the people of Israel, reiterating its commitment to "Israel's security and regional stability."

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Allied Support

The Netherlands is allocating more than €200 million for additional artillery ammunition and air defense in Ukraine. This was announced by outgoing Defense Minister Ollongren in an online meeting of NATO ministers.

Slovak citizens raise $1.6 million for Czech ammunition initiative after government refuses to contribute. Slovak citizens have raised over $1.6 million in three days for the Czech ammunition initiative after Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico refused to contribute to the campaign to aid Ukraine.

Christian Amanpour: “If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, then the whole transatlantic community will not be trusted anymore,” warns Czech President Petr Pavel. “We are talking about protecting our values – but we are not doing enough to protect them in practice.”

G7 foreign ministers vow to boost Ukraine's air defense capabilities. The Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers promised on April 19 to strengthen Ukraine's air defense capabilities to protect civilians and critical infrastructure from Russian attacks.

President Zelensky’s address the participants of the urgent meeting of the Ukraine – NATO Council at the level of Defense Ministers, convened at Ukrainian request.

We need seven more ‘Patriots’ or similar air defense systems, and it’s a minimum number. They can save many lives and really change the situation. You have such systems.

Secondly: we are talking for quite a while about a million artillery shells for Ukraine. They must finally be delivered to the frontline.

Thirdly, our long-ranged ability. It is absurd when partners are afraid of their strength. The more long-ranged weapons our soldiers have in their hands, the closer peace is. The frontline really needs long-range rockets and artillery now.

Fourth: aviation. If we have a fighter jet coalition, a sufficient number of jets is needed to really overcome the Russian air fleet. It’s not about the number of promises, but the real number of jets in the sky.

And fifth is speed. This year we can’t wait for decisions to be made.

NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg: NATO has promised to send more air defence:

UK allocates over $180 million to bolster Ukraine's energy sector. The U.K. has allocated nearly 150 million pounds (over $180 million) to support Ukraine's energy sector after recent Russian attacks, the head of the U.K.'s delegation to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Neil Holland, said on April 18.

European Investment Bank to allocate $596 million to Ukraine in 2024. Ukraine will receive 560 million euros ($596 million) from the European Investment Bank (EIB) for a number of projects this year, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said during a visit to the U.S. on April 19.

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Belton: Secret Russian foreign policy document urges action to weaken the U.S.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry has been drawing up plans to try to weaken its Western adversaries, including the United States, and leverage the Ukraine war to forge a global order free from what it sees as American dominance, according to a secret Foreign Ministry document.

In a classified addendum to Russia’s official — and public — “Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation,” the ministry calls for an “offensive information campaign” and other measures spanning “the military-political, economic and trade and informational psychological spheres” against a “coalition of unfriendly countries” led by the United States.

“We need to continue adjusting our approach to relations with unfriendly states,” states the 2023 document, which was provided to The Washington Post by a European intelligence service. “It’s important to create a mechanism for finding the vulnerable points of their external and internal policies with the aim of developing practical steps to weaken Russia’s opponents.”

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Georgian parliament moves forward with controversial foreign agents law as protests continue. The legislation was approved by 83 lawmakers of Georgia's 150-member parliament, with opposition lawmakers boycotting the vote. Video care of Eto Buziashvili.

Women’s march in Tblisi April 20.

Microsoft says Russian disinformation campaign targeting US election has begun. The focus of the new campaign is to spread "divisive content," including criticism of U.S. support for Ukraine, the Microsoft report said.

The street ‘artist’ Jorit, who has painted murals in Naples, was employed by a consortium out of St Petersburg to paint murals in Mariupol and other locations for the Kremlin. Here he is featured with Putin in Sochi and during his brief ‘commentary’ stated that he was there to show Putin’s ‘human side’, and that the narrative that Putin is a monster simply isn’t true. I’ve seen a lot and this was shocking even to me.

It turns out that the Kremlin has torn down his murals: he says that this was part of the contract, which I don’t believe for one second.

Good news: The mayor of Avellino, who paid Jorit for work, and has been arrested. At the EU level, his name has been forwarded to be put on a sanctions list.

The state of Italian TV talk shows: RAI Uno’s flagship political talk show with host Bruno Vespa took on the issue of abortion with a star-studded Manel. When they talk about Ukraine, there isn’t one analyst who is a Ukrainian specialist. The state of Italian TV is miserable, quite frankly, and I’ve stopped watching altogether. It’s infotainment and at times, agitainment.

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Times Radio: "NATO will begin to fragment." If Trump is reelected, the alliance will begin to fragment immediately after the election, says Michael Clarke.

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