Apr 23: E-Stories
RUattacksUa Kostiantynivka CombatSit Kommuna BehindLines InRussia Gershkovich Allies China A&P Halushka Kokcharov ISW UKDef CDS NoelReport WSJ ATESH Kandelaki FT Panyi Braw Tocci Carrer KeaneAtIFJ
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Governor: 5 injured in Russian attack on Kostiantynivka. Russian forces struck the city of Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast on the morning of April 23, wounding five people, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported.
CDS Report: According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 138 towns and villages and 157 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
In Kharkiv, a TV-tower was hit by Russian rockets. There are reportedly interruptions in TV-signal.
Zelensky: US aid gives Ukraine 'chance at victory.' "I think this support will really strengthen the armed forces, I pray, and we will have a chance at victory if Ukraine really gets the weapons system, which we need so much, which thousands of soldiers need so much."
Overnight, two large fires broke out in Russia. A fire totaling 1,200 m² broke out at an industrial enterprises in Orihovo-Zuyevo near Moscow. A second fire broke out at a service station in the Moscow district of St. Petersburg. A large-scale fire also broke out in Voronezh. The electromechanical plant "ELMASH" is on fire. Over 3000m² is already burning.
Ukraine's Navy confirms Russian ship Kommuna hit in Sevastopol. A missile was launched at the Russian Black Sea Fleet stationed in occupied Sevastopol on April 21, the city’s Russian-installed governor has said. A source in Ukraine’s military intelligence told the Kyiv Independent that information on the strike was still being clarified.
ATESH reports that Russia suffered several dead and many injured in Sevastopol after the missile attack. Ambulances continue to arrive to the scene
Combat Situation Update
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports about the capture of Novomykhailiivka. Two days ago, footage of Russian units emerged from the most western part of Novomykhailiivka, indicating Ukrainian troops have left the settlement. Its plausible to say Ukraine doesn't control Novomykhailiivka anymore. Russian troops in the center of Ocheretyne. Most of the settlement is likely in Russian hands. (Me: this could have been avoided had we moved much faster to get aid to Ukraine.)
Ukraine faces energy deficits, to restrict power supply for business, industry. Ukraine faces power deficits caused by Russian attacks on its energy system, forcing Kyiv to temporarily restrict power supply to businesses and industrial facilities on April 23, Ukraine's state-owned energy operator Ukrenergo reported.
Zelensky: Russia will attempt to seize Chasiv Yar by Victory Day. Russia will attempt to capture the town of Chasiv Yar, just west of the Russian-occupied Bakhmut, by May 9, Zelensky said in an interview with NBC News published on April 21.
CDS Report: General situation
During the past day, the Russian forces carried out 54 attacks in Sumy Oblast, with 283 explosions recorded. In one of the communities, 38 mines were deployed, while in another, a local resident was injured due to shelling.
The shortage of artillery ammunition experienced by the Ukrainian Defense Forces allows Russian assault units to achieve minor tactical successes. The reduced capabilities of the Defense Forces' air defense systems allow the enemy's aviation to intensively attack Ukrainian defenses with guided air bombs.
The enemy is unlikely to achieve significant operational successes in the coming weeks but will increase the pace of advance in areas west of Avdiivka and near Chasiv Yar, where the Ukrainian defense appears unstable.
Russian forces are attempting to leverage their relatively significant tactical progress northwest of Avdiivka near Ocheretyne.
Russian forces are initiating a tactical pause on the Avdiivka direction except in the areas of Ocheretyne and Netaylove.
ISW: Ukraine will be 'able to blunt' Russia's offensive if US aid arrives quickly. Despite indications that Russia is planning a renewed summer offensive, Ukraine will likely be able to curtail the effects of the renewed offensive if anticipated U.S. military aid arrives promptly, the U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on April 21.
Senator: US could start sending ATACMS to Kyiv in 1 week. The United States could begin transferring long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine "by the end of the week," U.S. Senator Mark Warner told CBS News in an interview published April 21.
It is believed to be Kozachi Laheri, left bank of the Kherson region. Ukrainian forces installed a flag, reportedly on the northwestern part of the village. The territory may change hands during the course of the war, but this is great psychological warfare.
Behind the Lines
The German manufacturer of building materials Knauf has ceased operations in Russia 'against the background of current events'. The reasons are not specified, but the company was recently involved in a scandal with supplies to occupied Mariupol.
Although the German government pledged to provide Ukraine with 400 MRAPs in 2024 via German defense company FFG, delays have occurred due to license restrictions on US exports to Germany and certification issues regarding mine protection. The number that will now be delivered in 2024 has been reduced to 100.
Poland, Lithuania, other NATO allies begin military exercise around Suwalki Gap. The exercise was jointly planned in 2022 by the Polish and Lithuanian militaries and involves at least 1,500 troops and hundreds of pieces of equipment, the Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT said.
Politico: The US considers sending about 60 military advisers to Ukraine, said Pentagon spokesman General Patrick Ryder. The advisers would not be in a combat role, but rather would advise and support the Ukrainian government and military. (Me: from my knowledge, British advisors are already there.)
Noel Report: From the trenches in Ukraine to all Americans that made new aid for Ukraine possible.
Hungary will block the EU’s allocation of €2 billion in military aid to Ukraine until it receives guarantees that Hungarian companies won’t be included in the Ukrainian blacklist, said Minister of Foreign Affairs and External Economic Relations, Peter Szijjártó.
Russian occupation authorities have delivered another batch of Russian propaganda to schools in the occupied territory of Luhansk Oblast. The materials include dictionaries containing terms related to "defense of traditional Russian spiritual and moral values, culture, and historical memory." The terms deemed most important by the Russian Ministry of Education are included to convey to future generations the current meanings of expressions like "foreign agent," "civil identity," "Russian Cossacks," "threat to national security," and so on. This was reported by Artem Lysohor, the head of the Luhansk Oblast Military-Civil Administration.
Chisinau airport evacuated following bomb threat. Passengers and staff were evacuated from the Chisinau International Airport in Moldova's capital on April 21 due to an explosion threat.
Bloomberg: Moldova's pro-Russian opposition parties establish anti-European bloc ahead of elections. Members of Moldova's pro-Russian opposition parties met in Moscow on April 21 to establish a new anti-European political bloc aimed at derailing Moldova's planned accession to the European Union, Bloomberg reported.
A school in Italy did an online class with a Russian school, organised by an Italian pro-Kremlin propagandist, Andrea Lucidi. Lucidi and his partner, Vincenzo Lorusso, run a channel on Rumble, DonbassItalia, and they are well-known to Italian counterintelligence. We have called for an investigation into this matter as it has probably violated Italian law regarding the use of foreign propaganda in schools.
Meanwhile in Russia
Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov: A new US package of military aid to Ukraine will not change the situation on the frontlines, where Russia has the upper hand, the Kremlin said.
“The Russian armed forces are improving their positions at the front … The money allocated and the weapons that will be supplied will not change this dynamic. They will lead to new victims on the Ukrainian side. More Ukrainians will die, Ukraine will suffer greater losses.”
Peskov adds that any move by the US to seize frozen Russian assets would be illegal, set a dangerous precedent and be challenged in court, Reuters reported. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said such a move would constitute an encroachment on private and state property and would lead to retaliation and legal action.
Me: what else is he going to say. Frankly, this is rich. Russia does not have a legally elected president, and it has been operating outside the rule of law forever. It uses legal arguments are weapons in its war.
Warmongers' Planes." The French company continues to service the airliners of Putin and Shoigu, despite sanctions. There are also those who deliberately continue to work with the regime of Vladimir Putin. “The thirst for profit means that after the war started in Ukraine, business [in Russia] continued... Money flows freely and everyone is happy,” a former top executive of a small PGA company told Le Parisien newspaper. This French division of the American group Astronics deals with avionics - flight, navigation and communication electronic systems that are installed on board an aircraft.
Russia's largest mining and metallurgical holding will close its plant near Norilsk due to sanctions. Norilsk Nickel, the largest mining and metallurgical holding in Russia, intends to move the copper plant near Norilsk to China in the hope that this will help overcome sanctions and provide access to technology and the sales market. The head of the company and main shareholder Vladimir Potanin said this in an interview with Interfax. According to Potanin, who is among the top 5 richest billionaires in the Russian Federation with a fortune of $23.7 billion according to Forbes, the decision was influenced by new sanctions from the United States and Great Britain, followed by customers refusing the company’s metals.
WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich’s appeal has been rejected. He’ll be held in pre-trial detention until at least June 30. But members of the media were let in to see him for the first time in months.
Dr Benjamin Schmitt: Western firms like SLB still providing energy services in Russia should *exit now*. No energy firm can credibly tell shareholders they weren’t warned about sanctions if it turns the technical systems & support provided to Russian companies somehow are one day reused as a dual use components for Putin’s military.
CNN: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will go to China. The US expresses serious concern about Beijing's support for Russia. Blinken will meet with senior Chinese officials in both Shanghai and Beijing during his April 24-26 visit.
Latvian schools to stop teaching Russian as foreign language. Children in Latvia will no longer learn Russian as a foreign language in schools from 2026, but instead will be required to learn a language of the European Union or the European Economic Area, Latvia's Education Ministry announced on April 23.
Allied Support
Germany, Lithuania scouring closed power plants for parts for Ukraine. Decommissioned power plants in Germany and Lithuania are being examined to see if parts can be salvaged and sent to Kyiv in order to repair and restore Ukrainian energy infrastructure damaged by Russian strikes.
The UK will send a big, new military aid package to Ukraine worth €580 million. It includes additional Storm Shadow missiles, 4 million rounds of ammunition, over 1600 strike- and air defense missiles, 160 Husky patrol vehicles, 162 armoured carriers, 78 all-terrain vehicles and 60 boats, including offshore raiding craft, rigid raiding craft and dive boats as well as maritime guns.
Denmark will deliver all the promised fighter jets to Ukraine. First deliveries will arrive in the summer, Danish Ambassador to Ukraine Ole Egberg Mikkelsen said.
"Do not worry. There will definitely be airplanes for Ukraine. This is our entire F-16 fleet, which is now being decommissioned because we are getting a new generation of F-35 aircraft. There is nothing to worry about. The F-16s will be delivered as promised."
Christian Amanpour interviews Nathalie Tocci: “It’s a huge worry… Defense is going to be the first priority of the next political institutional cycle in Europe...it’s simply the realization… that our continent is at war”.
Norway will join the initiative to supply additional air defense systems to Ukraine and allocates billions for it. The exact amount is not yet known.
"We have very little time for delays, so Norway will be involved in the financing. There are several other countries that contribute to that, because there are air defense systems that can get into Ukraine quite quickly, and they have been working on that intensively in the last few days and weeks," he emphasized.
Spain and Greece’s armed forces together have a significant amount of Patriot systems plus others such as S-300s, were told their need was not as great as Ukraine’s and that they did not face any imminent threat.
EU foreign ministers meeting on Monday discussed the war in Ukraine and crisis in the Middle East, where they are expected to impose further sanctions on Iran. Baiba Braže, Latvia’s new foreign minister, warned against slackening the EU’s efforts to aid Ukraine in its defence against the continuing Russian attack.
“As Europeans we have to step up; we can’t relax, even though the US has passed the aid package,” she said.
Lithuanian foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, struck a similar note:
“We dodged a historic bullet, but unfortunately many more bullets are on the way. Therefore we can be joyous today but we have to be prepared for the battle that is coming tomorrow,” he said. “We have to continue to speak about how we are going to assist Ukraine further.”
The EU has already sanctioned Iranian officials and organisations for their role in supplying Russia with military hardware in its assault on Ukraine, as well as Iran’s repression of domestic human rights protesters. “We are going to take measures with respect to the production and export of missiles and drones,” Borrell said, when asked about Iranian sanctions.
WSJ: US now pushing China harder to end support for Russia's war against Ukraine.
Me: just a reminder that Ukrainian authorities and investigators in the U.S. have been working on this for at least 18 months. The information was there if they had cared to act on it quickly.
The U.S. is drafting sanctions that threaten to cut some Chinese banks off from the global financial system, arming Washington’s top envoy with diplomatic leverage that officials hope will stop Beijing’s commercial support of Russia’s military production, according to people familiar with the matter.
"Blinken and other top cabinet officials have been sounding the alarm among Western allies, including last week at a meeting of the Group of Seven industrialized nations in Capri, Italy."
"China can’t have it both ways," Blinken said in Capri. "It can’t purport to want to have positive friendly relations with countries in Europe, and at the same time be fueling the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War."
Reuters: Donald Trump will hear prosecutors explain why his alleged cover-up of a hush money payment to a porn star during his 2016 campaign broke the law.
Tesla has cut prices in a number of its major markets, including China and Germany, following price cuts in the US, as it grapples with falling sales and an intensifying price war for electric vehicles, especially against Chinese EVs.
Trump’s rallies are a defining feature of his presidential campaigns: all-day spectacles blending evangelical revivalist meeting and carnival, designed to deliver an emotional experience to his base and bring new backers into the fold, a campaign aide said. Reuters attended Trump’s Green Bay rally on April 2 and interviewed four dozen attendees and also spoke to two campaign officials.
