Apr 24: E-Stories
Day 425: Bakhmut Dnipro Danilov Crosetto Iran RUrecruitment RUelites Turkey Medvedev Melnyk Pevkur Lula A&P UAArtHistory Zabrisky Shemerata Latham BylineTimes
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Flanks around Bakhmut hold as brutal urban fighting continues for city blocks. Two months after Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut seemed doomed, the bloodiest battle of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine is still going against all expectations. As of April 19, approximately 87.9% of the city’s urban area is under the control of Russian forces, led by the Wagner paramilitary group, according to estimates by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War. Ukrainian forces have made a successful stand holding the railway running through Bakhmut over the last few days, but meanwhile, Russia made new breakthroughs in the neighborhoods north and south of the railway line.
Military: Russia airstrikes Kherson Oblast with 4 Su-35 jets. Russian forces have conducted airstrikes against Kherson Oblast using four Su-35 fighter jets over the part day, Ukraine's Southern Command said on April 23.
Ukrainian forces cross Dnipro River in Kherson region in south. Footage shows Ukrainian positions on east bank and on islands in river --- Russia military bloggers concerned that supply lines established and missions being conducted.
Military asks for 'patience' on reports of possible Ukrainian advance in Kherson Oblast. The comments come a day after the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based think-tank analyzing the war in Ukraine, confirmed that Ukraine had taken new positions on the east bank.
Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur has claimed in an interview with ERR in Ramstein that rainy weather remains the biggest obstacle for the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and at least a month will pass before combat actions step up.
“If you listen to the opinions [which were voiced at the] Ramstein meeting, it could be another month before we can talk about a real counteroffensive. If the weather changes, it could happen even sooner. If not, then it will be a month, maybe two," said Pevkur.“
As published on Facebook: Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council (NSDC), has urged politicians to avoid "pro-Russian peacekeeping" and give Ukraine more weapons.
As the Russian aggressor's goal remains unchanged, which is the destruction of Ukraine, the recent peaceful settlement initiatives are nothing more than pro-Russian peacekeeping. Stop bringing us to the negotiating table, just give us enough weapons. Weapons are the best mediator and the only argument for communication that Russia understands.
Oleksii Dmytrashkivskyi, spokesman for the Tavriia Front Defence Forces Joint Press Centre, believes that Russia will soon begin assault operations Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, as per Dmytrashkivskyi during the national joint 24/7 newscast. He said the invaders struck Vuhledar six times on Saturday, 22 April using aircraft.
The enemy is using the tactics of scorched earth. This is done to prevent our defenders from holding the line anywhere. Houses are being destroyed; in the military slang, they call it 'taking houses apart', floor by floor, and this is happening in both [cities of] Bakhmut and Vuhledar.
In Zaporizhzhia direction, Russians continue to build fortifications, in anticipation of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
"In Zaporizhzhia direction, the nature of the enemy's actions has not changed. The enemy expects a counteroffensive and continues to build fortifications, deploy anti-tank weapons, and mine the territories," Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, the head of the joint press center of the defense forces of Tavria direction, said during the national news telethon.
The Russians received another batch of Shahed drones and now try to detect our air defense systems.
"We saw that this is another batch by the marking. We see that these loitering munitions are launched almost every night to target the regions of Ukraine. Obviously, their stocks have been replenished and now they try to detect our air defense," Natalia Humeniuk, the head of the press center of the Operational Command "South", said during the national news telethon.
Russia's MoD has launched a major campaign to recruit volunteers as the Russian Federation seeks to delay open mobilization to minimize domestic dissent. That’s according to an update by the British Ministry of Defense, referring to intelligence data, Ukrinform reports. As part of a large-scale campaign, advertising appeared on Russian social media, on billboards, and on television.
Russian elites are wary of their future and are therefore looking for contacts with Ukraine and other countries in order to seal security guarantees for themselves after Russia loses the war, according to Android Yusov, spokesman for the GRU, Main Intelligence Dir at Ukraine’s MoD. "They are reaching out, of course. And not only to Ukraine. There’s a quite wide range of countries where they are trying to get personal security guarantees for themselves, for their wealth, and for their families," spokesperson said.
Turkey helps Russia, Belarus evade sanctions, leak documents allege. According to the classified document, which was one of several leaked on social media over the past few weeks, “Turkish companies purchased sanctioned goods” and “sold them in European markets.” Meanwhile, the document also says that the involved companies “resold goods from Europe to Russia.” Another such document alleged that Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) was behind the attack on the Russian aircraft at Machulishchy Airfield in Belarus in December.
UN: An open debate initiated by Russia "on the effective multilateralism through the defense of the principles of the Charter of the United Nations" will be held in the UN Security Council on Monday, April 24, under the chairmanship of Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov—Ukrinform reports.
AFP: Cyprus has imposed sanctions 13 individuals named by the United States and the UK, as they help Russian oligarchs circumvent the sanctions imposed on Moscow over the war in Ukraine. Cyprus' Financial Commissioner Pavlos Ioannou has told state broadcaster Cyprus Broadcasting Corporation that the individuals and entities' assets were frozen. "The banks couldn't help but take the measures they took... and the government also acted wisely, " Ioannou said.
Ukraine must immediately receive 10 times more military aid than it has received from allies so far in order to end the war this year — Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine @MelnykAndrij
Minister: Spain-provided Leopard 2 tanks to arrive in Ukraine 'in six days.' Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles has confirmed that six German-made Leopard 2 tanks are en route from Spain to Ukraine and are due to arrive within a week, CNN reported on April 23.
Reuters: Russia advising citizens to avoid traveling to Canada. Russia's Foreign Ministry warned its citizens on April 22 to avoid travel to Canada, citing what it calls numerous cases of discrimination against Russians, including physical violence, Reuters reports.
Guido Crosetto, The Italian Minister of Defence, advocated bringing Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table, mediated by China.
I would like Europe to play a bigger role in trying to douse water on the fire. Because you're great at pouring gas, but there's no one who's a firefighter. We need firefighters in a world where the UN, which should have been a firefighter, has lost its ability to be one; as the Security Council is blocked by permanent members like Russia, China, USA. Therefore, we need another interlocutor for peace.
Russian former president Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday that if the G7 moved to ban exports to Russia, Moscow would respond by terminating the Black Sea Grain deal that enables vital exports of grain from Ukraine, Reuters reports.
Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has again refused to take sides in the war in Ukraine, calling for a “negotiated political solution” between Kyiv and Moscow. “We urgently need a group of countries to sit round a table with both Ukraine and Russia,” he said after a meeting with the Portuguese president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, in Lisbon.
BLOOD AND GOLD
By Brian Latham, Byline Times, April 18, 2023
How the Sudanese are Dying for Putin’s War in Ukraine
Fighting in Sudan may yet influence the war in Ukraine because Sudanese gold smuggled by Russia’s Wagner mercenaries buys the weapons and munitions Russia needs. Wagner has been in Sudan since 2017, invited there by former dictator Omar al-Bashir.
Bashir had met Putin in Moscow that year and, sensing the Sudanese population was growing restive, offered investment opportunities to Russia in exchange for support. The ‘’investment’’ came in the form of a mining company, Meroe Gold, owned by Russia’s M-Invest. Both companies are sanctioned by the US government and the EU, and both are owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin – who also owns Wagner.
After Bashir’s ouster in the April 2019 coup, Wagner officials flirted with Sudan’s shaky Sovereign Council, now led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan who also commands Sudan’s official military. Relations between the Russian mercenaries and al-Burhan, a career soldier, broke down and Wagner began flirting with his deputy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, more commonly known by his nickname, Hemedti. [continue reading]
