Apr 25: E-Stories
RUattacks Kharkiv CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies US NATO A&P Khara Ukrinform CDSReport UKDef ISW NoelReport Lautman Kokcharov Davis Fallon Liubakova Lucas Standish DW Burchard Eckel
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
I couldn’t leave this out: posted by Alexander Khara, Stairway to Heaven on the bandura. We’re giving away our age when we say, that’s cool!
Stories we’re following…
Russia launches missile attacks on Kharkiv, leaving 2 injured. Russia launched missile attacks on Kharkiv in the early hours of April 24, damaging four residential building, and injuring two people, Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported on Telegram.
Russia attacks 11 communities in Sumy Oblast, injuring 4. Russian forces attacked Sumy Oblast 242 times in 51 separate attacks throughout the day, injuring four people, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on April 23.
CDS: A Russian drone attack on Odesa on Tuesday night wounded nine individuals, including four children, two of whom are under a year old. Search and rescue teams saved 34 individuals, and at least 14 apartments suffered damage.
Missile attack on Kharkiv damages vehicles of Danish organization delivering humanitarian aid
The nighttime Russian missile attack on Kharkiv damaged vehicles of the Danish Refugee Council, which were delivering humanitarian aid.
Ukraine’s SBU security service drones struck two Rosneft-owned oil depots in Russia’s Smolensk region in an overnight attack, according to a source in Ukrainian intelligence reports Reuters. The source said the depots contained 26,000 cubic metres of fuel and that the attack caused major fires and evacuation of personnel. “The SBU continues to effectively destroy military infrastructure and logistics that provide fuel to the Russian army in Ukraine,” the source said.
Combat Situation Update
ISW: Russia steps up strikes and information pressure against Kharkiv to make people flee. The Kremlin is conducting a concerted air and information operation to destroy Kharkiv City, convince Ukrainians to flee, and internally displace millions of Ukrainians ahead of a possible future Russian offensive operation against the city or elsewhere in Ukraine.
The ISW analyzed the statements of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a speech at the Defense Ministry board on April 23, who emphasized Russia's offensive operations near Chasovyi Yar, Avdiivka and Donetsk and announced Russia's intention to intensify strikes on Ukrainian logistics.
CDS Report: most relevant possible operational and situational developments
Before Ukraine receive assistance from partners, the enemy will utilize active aerial attacks against Ukrainian defenses to destroy fortifications, primarily focusing on defense nodes in the Chasiv Yar, Siversk, and Novomykhailivka directions of Russian military operations.
Ocheretyne is located at the intersection of Ukrainian defense lines, one of which Russian forces attacked after capturing Avdiivka in mid-February 2024, while another, prepared in advance, is positioned deeper in the operational depth as a subsequent defensive line further to the west. The enemy will have to pass through Ocheretyne and stabilize the northern flank of the Avdiivka direction before they can continue their tactical breakthrough against Ukrainian defenses in this area.
The Kremlin said on Wednesday that it would further expand its “buffer zone” inside Ukraine if Kyiv takes delivery of longer-range Atcams missiles from the US that allow it to strike deeper inside Russia. The US is preparing a $1bn military aid package for Ukraine, the first to be sourced from the yet to be signed $95bn foreign aid bill, two US officials told Reuters on Tuesday.
According to the independent Russian publication Mediazona, in March 2024, Russian military courts handed down a record number of sentences in desertion cases. A total of 684 Russian servicemen were convicted.
Behind the Lines
Reuters: Russia's April oil and gas revenue to double compared to 2023, slightly drop from March. The figures demonstrate that western sanctions targeting Moscow's oil and gas industries have not been as effective as hoped.
Former commander in chief Valerii Zaluzhny will begin his official activities as ambassador to Great Britain in the coming weeks. His candidacy has been approved internally, Advisor to the Head of the Presidential Office Mykhailo Podolyak said.
Thousands of European flights reportedly affected by suspected Russian jamming. Russia has been accused of jamming GPS signals in nearby countries such as Finland as far back as the 2010s.
When tracing the journeys Italian pro-Russian proxies take to get to Donbas and Crimea, our research found that they took flew to Turkey and then took Turkish Airlines to get to St Petersburg or Moscow. They then made their way to occupied Ukrainian territory from there. Curtailing Russian access to Turkish Airline flights is a good step in restricting Russian mobility.
Bloomberg: France proposes new sanctions to target Russian disinformation, election interference. The proposal "would target those responsible for threatening the stability, security or sovereignty of EU member states or third countries by undermining elections, the rule of law, facilitating acts of violence or do so through the use of information manipulation and interference," Bloomberg wrote.
Olena Halushka: Astonishing how little prominence this has among the people in Europe. Remember, russia never starts its war with tanks attempting to assault capitals of other states. This is the war, and denying it won't make it disappear, unfortunately.
Bloomberg: Russia to supply China with cheaper gas compared to European market at least through 2027. Russia is expected to export natural gas to China with prices as much as 28% below those for Russia's European clients at least until 2027, Bloomberg reported on April 23, citing the Russian Economy Ministry's outlook.
Swedish Navy chief says Russian 'shadow fleet' of oil tankers possibly conducting espionage in Baltic Sea. Swedish Navy chief Ewa Skoog Haslum said some of the ships from the shadow fleet have been found to possess communications and signals equipment not usually associated with cargo vessels, leading to concerns they could be used in "hybrid operations."
Meanwhile in Russia
Huge news: Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov arrested for bribery after decade as senior official responsible for major construction projects. He has been taken to a pre-trial detention center in a case of taking a bribe on a particularly large scale. According to the investigators' version, Ivanov and Borodin conspired to receive a bribe during contracting and subcontracting works for the needs of the Russian Ministry of Defense. UK Defence Intelligence provides the following information:
According to VkCH OGPU channel, the Minister’s personal assistant, Andrei Petrov, disappeared an hour before Ivanov’s arrest, and is believed to be assisting the FSB in the ‘investigation’. There are rumours that Ivanov was actually arrested for treason, but this is speculation. Whatever it is, we’ll keep an eye on this and see where it goes.
The Russian telegram channels are now sharing pictures of Ivanov’s properties as proof of his ‘corruption’, which is risible as most Kremligarchs have property abroad, including Dmitry Medvedev, who owns a winery in Tuscany. Pictures of the interiors will certainly follow.
This arrest may be interpreted as a warning to others at the top in the top echelons of the Kremlin. It’s surprising because we know that there is rampant corruption in the military with regards to contracts, so it is assumed that the Minister knew about the bribes (etc…). Shoigu was pictured yesterday in meetings about the Black Sea and how to turn things around there. This ‘arrest’ could be connected to this as well.
Vladimir Potanin, one of Russia's richest men, announced plans to launch a new mineral venture in China a week after the United States and Britain levied sanctions on Russia's mineral industry, RFE/RL's Russian Service reports.
Potanin told Interfax the company has been having issues with processing international payments and sanctions have seen the company lose up to 20 percent of its prewar revenue.
The announcement of the new business in China came shortly after London and Washington banned the supply of Russian copper, nickel, and aluminum from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the London Metal Exchange, as well as any direct imports of the minerals from Russia.
Julia Davis: Meanwhile in Russia: seething about the resumption of U.S. aid to Ukraine, Vladimir Solovyov asserts that Russia's borders extend all the way to Mexico, and if Russia needs the Atlantic ocean, it should take it as well.
Russian Orthodox Church head suspends priest who led memorial service for Alexey Navalny. The head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, has imposed a three-year suspension on the priest who held a memorial service at Alexey Navalny’s grave in late March. Priest Dmitry Safronov is now forbidden from giving blessings, wearing the frock, and bearing the church’s priestly cross until 2027, at which time his future in the clergy will be reassessed, Patriarch Kirill decreed.
Russia’s publishing industry can now turn to a new expert center established through the Russian Book Union. The center brings together representatives from religious, legal, and academic groups, as well as Russia’s federal censor. Experts will review books for compliance with Russia’s expanding speech restrictions, notably violations of so-called “gay propaganda.”
For the second consecutive year, Russian officials have canceled in-person “Immortal Regiment” commemorations on May 9, when cities across the country mark the USSR’s victory in World War II. Officials say they cannot ensure public safety.
North Korea sends delegation to Iran. North Korea's delegation is led by Yun Jung Ho, North Korea’s minister of external economic relations, state media said.
Chinese propaganda video care of Teresa Fallon: unruly folks from the 'global south' try to attack a Chinese man & his blond girl friend. In response to the aggression, the young man wields his mighty PRC passport like a sacred talisman--the attackers see it and immediately bow several times before it and then go away peacefully.
Hugo Boss to sell its Russian subsidiary. Along with many other Western companies, Hugo Boss suspended its retail operations in Russia after the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Hungarian FM says Ukraine carrying out 'witch hunt' against Hungarian businesses, threatens to block EU aid. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto's latest complaint against Ukraine was in relation to allegations that the country was planning to revoke several of the distribution permits for medicine from the Hungarian pharmaceutical company Richter. (Me: I have put news about Hungary in the ‘In Russia’ section as it has consistently taken decisions that are in line with Russian policy, as opposed to European or allied positions.)
The fate of so many dissidents in Belarus has not gained media attention. Lukashenka has jailed 1,404 political prisoners. Viasna’s website provides information on each of them and how you can help. They state:
Bloggers, businessmen, presidential campaign members and peaceful protesters are held in prisons only because they were not afraid to exercise their rights - the right to participate in peaceful assemblies, to express their opinion and to be involved in political activities.
Most of these people were targeted by politically motivated criminal prosecution in connection with the events that took place during and after the presidential election of August 2020.
Allied Support
AP: US Senate passes $61 billion in aid to Ukraine. The U.S. Senate passed the foreign aid bill in a vote on April 23, paving the way to provide $60.84 billion for Ukraine. Aid for Taiwan and Israel has also been approved.
“Today the Senate sends a unified message to the entire world: America will always defend democracy in its hour of need,” said Chuck Schumer in a floor speech on Tuesday afternoon.
“Make no mistake, America will deliver on its promise to act like a leader on the world stage, to hold the line against autocratic thugs like Vladimir Putin,” he continued. “We are showing Putin that betting against America is always, always a grave mistake.”
CNN: Some US military aid for Ukraine already in Poland, Germany. Some of the U.S. military aid for Ukraine is already in Germany and Poland, cutting down the time needed for the weapons and equipment to reach the front line, CNN reported on April 22, citing a source familiar with the provision of aid.
State department confirms US began secretly providing Ukraine long-range ATACMS missiles in March The U.S. began this spring secretly providing Ukraine with long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) at President Joe Biden's direction, U.S. State Department Spokesperson Vedant Patel confirmed at a press briefing on April 24.
Media: Greece preparing to give Ukraine at least 1 Patriot system, possibly 2. The news follows a story by the Financial Times (FT) on April 22, in which official sources said that Greece and Spain were under specific pressure from the EU to provide additional air defense systems to Ukraine.
Britain will spend 2.5 percent of GDP on defense by end of the decade as Downing Street urges ‘other major European NATO economies to follow.’ Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said during a trip to Poland Tuesday that the new package is the “biggest strengthening of our national defense for a generation," while his office argued it "sets a new standard for other major European NATO economies to follow."
UK prime minister Rishi Sunak said the UK and Germany will provide “unwavering support” for Ukraine “for as long as it takes”, as he visited Berlin to deepen defence and security ties between the two allies. Sunak said “every country has got different things that it can bring to the table” after German chancellor Olaf Scholz said his decision not to deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv “will not change”.
Ambassador: Ukraine in talks to set up joint production of Patriot systems. Kyiv is pushing Washington for the joint production of Patriot air defense systems to help Ukraine fend off Russia's war, Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova said in an interview with European Pravda on April 23.
President Zelensky’s address to partners April 24:
Today, I addressed representatives of partner countries and international organizations in Ukraine, as well as our diplomats. We have specific intelligence data indicating that Russia not only wants to disrupt the Peace Summit, but also has a specific plan for how to do so, including how to reduce the number of participating countries and how to act in order to thwart peace efforts for even longer. To counter this, we must work together, in unity, to achieve a just peace.
Denmark to allocate around $450 million for Ukraine's reconstruction, energy sector. Copenhagen will allocate around 420 million euros ($450 million) to Kyiv as part of a memorandum of understanding on long-term cooperation and reconstruction signed on April 23, Ukraine's Economy Ministry reported.
Ukraine's parliament passes law adapting education policy to match EU standards. Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov wrote that the law will help introduce a number of changes to help university students have more flexibility and autonomy in higher education.
Reid Standish—Xi to visit Europe: Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit Hungary, Serbia, and France on a high-profile tour in early May, marking his first trip to Europe since the pandemic.
Xi will be looking to repair some of the damage done to the relationship with Europe since his last trip to the continent. In particular, he'll be aiming to unwind some of the European Union's moves toward de-risking, which Beijing sees as an unwelcome alignment between Brussels and Washington.
China's participation at the upcoming peace summit in Switzerland about the war in Ukraine set for mid-June. EU officials say Beijing has been pushing for Russia to have a seat at the table as well.
While the visit to Paris is an opportunity to focus on China's wider relationship with Europe, the stops in Hungary and Serbia will allow Beijing to show that its influence in Central and Eastern Europe is still intact.
Hungarian and Chinese officials are active in the leadup to the visit: Hungarian Economy Minister Marton Nagy received a Chinese delegation on April 18 where they discussed, among other things, the status of the Chinese-financed $1.9 billion Budapest-Belgrade railway project.
The U.S. Senate voted by a wide margin in favor of legislation that would ban TikTok in the US if its owner, the Chinese tech firm ByteDance, fails to divest the popular short video app over the next nine months to a year.
Britain charged two of its nationals for spying for Beijing. Christopher Cash, a parliamentary researcher, and Christopher Berry were charged with spying on April 22 and both will appear in court later this week in London.
Cash is accused of obtaining, collecting, recording, publishing, or communicating notes, documents or information "calculated to be, might be, or were intended to be, directly or indirectly, useful to an enemy" between January 2022 and February 2023, according to a statement by Britain's Crown Prosecution Service. Berry is charged with the same offenses of Britain's Official Secrets Act from December 2021 to February 2023.
Politico: Germany arrests EU Parliament aide over bombshell China spying claims
German police arrested the aide of a top European lawmaker working for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party over accusations he spied for China.
The staffer, identified as Jian G. by German authorities, works for MEP Maximilian Krah who is the AfD’s top candidate in the European Parliament election in June. “Jian G. is an employee of a Chinese secret service,” the German public prosecutor said in a statement Tuesday morning.
Regarding Krah’s parliamentary assistant, German public prosecutor’s office said “the accused repeatedly passed on information about negotiations and decisions in the European Parliament to his intelligence service client.” Prosecutors also accused him of spying on Chinese opposition members in Germany.
“I learned of the arrest of my employee Jian Guo this morning from the press,” Krah said. “I have no further information. Spying for a foreign state is a serious accusation. If the allegations prove to be true, this would result in the immediate termination of his employment.”
A spokesperson for the European Parliament announced that, “given the seriousness of the revelations,” the Parliament has moved to suspend Krah’s assistant with immediate effect.
The AfD is polling a strong second place in Germany, behind the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) conservative alliance, but the party has seen its support slide of late following a string of scandals.
Washington Post: The US informed the leadership of Niger that it would comply with its request to withdraw U.S. forces from the country, which had been operating in a counterterrorism role there for more than half a decade.
Around the same time, reports emerged that authorities in Chad had sent a letter this month to the U.S. defense attaché based there, ordering the US to cease activities at a base that also accommodates French troops. The potential withdrawal of a detachment of U.S. Special Forces based in Chad would mark yet another blow for the Western security presence in the Sahel.
With regards to Niger, “The agreement will spell the end of a U.S. troop presence that totaled more than 1,000 and throw into question the status of a $110 million U.S. air base that is only six years old,” my colleagues reported. “It is the culmination of a military coup last year that ousted the country’s democratically elected government and installed a junta that declared America’s military presence there ‘illegal.’”
The U.S. exit in Niger follows the arrival of a detachment of Russian military trainers in the country this month. Le Monde sketched what had preceded this deployment of some 100 officers of the Africa Corps, the rebranded Russian paramilitary successor to the mercenary Wagner organization, which had a broad, murky presence in Africa before disbanding late last year.
China, less conspicuous than the opportunistic Kremlin, has steadily shouldered its way into Niger. The country’s junta announced this week that a Chinese state oil company had made an advance $400 million payment for crude purchases from Niger’s Agadem field. The deal, structured with further interest payments to the Chinese company, would help Niger’s cash-strapped government reckon with mounting domestic debts.
Me: Historically, the Sahel and other African nations have been the focus of Soviet, then Russian, efforts to instal satellite or client state governments. Prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, they had pulled out most of the ‘advisors’; however, long-standing relationships between some African nations and Russia are still relevant. The Soviets/Russians preferred dealing with nationalist/military governments in Africa and Indochina. In lieu of Soviet troops, Cuba, a Soviet satellite state, had sent their troops to various hotspots in Africa and Central America. Their return to this theatre is not surprising, as the governments in the Sahel see the Russians as allies. Russia has also invested heavily in the dissemination of propaganda in most African states, pressing on the narrative that they are the ‘liberators’ of the ‘colonial imperialists’. I have to smile at the audacity and gaslighting they manage to drum up.
Fun Fact: at the end of the 1960s to mid-1970s, the Italian terrorist group, the Red Brigades, modelled their structure, and adopted the tactics of the Algerian Liberation Front, which was trained by Moscow. Through their proxies and fellow-traveller states, the Soviets had set up training camps for guerrilla warfare in North Africa (including Libya), Czechoslovakia (at the time), East Germany and in the Soviet Union.
For more on this particular aspect of Soviet/Russian foreign policy, I suggest Brian Crozier’s The Rise and Fall of the Soviet Empire (1999), or drop me a line and I can suggest other titles.
Trump on Trial
Olga Lautman: Arizona grand jury has indicted 7 attorneys and aides affiliated with Trump’s 2020 presidential crimes as well as 11 Arizona Republicans on felony charges Meadows, Giuliani, Ellis, Eastman, Bobb, Epshteyn, and Mike Roman were indicted. Trump named as an unindicted co-conspirator.
Also earlier today, Trump, Mark Meadows, and Rudy Giuliani were named unindicted co-conspirators in the Michigan attorney general's case against the state's so-called "fake electors" crimes. Again why weren't they indicted?
Election fraud vs. “bookkeeping.” Trump is charged with 34 counts of falsifying internal Trump Organization business records. But prosecutor Matthew Colangelo has made clear that the heart of the case is a scheme to “corrupt” the 2016 election by silencing people who were about to come forward with embarrassing stories Trump feared would hurt his campaign. Trump, meanwhile, sought to downplay the accusations while leaving the courtroom on Monday, calling it a “bookkeeping” case and “a very minor thing.”
David Pecker takes the stand. Former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker is the first witness for prosecutors, who say that Trump’s alleged scheme to conceal damaging information from voters began with a 2015 Trump Tower meeting. At the meeting, Pecker — a longtime Trump friend — agreed to aid Trump’s campaign by running favorable pieces about him, smearing opponents, and scouting unflattering stories to flag them for “catch-and-kill” deals. Trump says all were false.
DW Documentaries: North Korea. Geographically small, it nonetheless looms large in the geopolitical consciousness. The country is isolated, its population desperately poor. The Kim dynasty has ruled for three generations. How does this ruling family manage to make its power felt around the world?
The nuclear program is central to North Korea's strategy. For decades, the regime devoted increasingly large amounts of its resources to acquiring the bomb. Then, in 2006, North Korea detonated a nuclear bomb for the first time. It was a signal to the world: North Korea was a force to be reckoned with.