Apr 26 : E-Stories

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Apr 26, 2025

Catching up…

Since the last time I checked in, the world has become that much more complicated. I have been in the background, following events, taking in the instability and, at times, the insanity. I took time off to complete a certification in non-violent warfare. It’s great to be back.

E-Stories will continue to put Ukraine front and centre as it is war on our continent. I’ll throw the top news stories and a little analysis when that’s useful.

For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.

For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.

Let’s get going…

Stories we’re following…

Pope Francis’s funeral in Rome today care of Vatican News.

World leaders met on the side lines before and after the funeral. Presidents Zelensky and Trump met in the Basilica of St Peter’s to exchange views for roughly 15 minutes. The White House described Trump’s meeting with the Ukrainian leader before Pope Francis’s funeral as “very productive”, while Zelensky said on X that the talk with the US president was symbolic and had the “potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results”.

Macron stepped into a convo between Zelensky and Trump, and I have a working theory that Macron secretly enjoys pestering Trump. President Zelensky also met with Ursula von der Leyen, Keir Starmer, and Georgia Meloni. During a meeting with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Zelensky discussed strengthening cooperation under the ReArm Europe initiative and the 17th package of sanctions against Russia.
The Conclave is set to begin in eight days. The next pope is anyone’s guess so I will not dip into conjecture. If I receive any information that may be useful to navigate the Conclave, I will be sharing it here.

In Ukraine…

Zarina Zabrisky reporting from Kherson: Here is what Kherson has got to say about the US “peace deal”: “Kherson is our city, our land, and our people. We only trust our army.” Liudmila runs her store to show that Kherson still stands. Human safari, Kherson is Ukraine. Occupied Kherson region is Ukraine.

Most online services restored in Ukraine after data center outage, no signs of cyberattack. De Novo CEO Maksym Ahieiev emphasized that there were "no signs of hacking or external interference," and the outage was due to a "combination of technical factors."

The Telegraph reporting that The U.S. has privately agreed to offer security guarantees for British and EU troops deployed to Ukraine as part of the “coalition of the willing,” according to The Telegraph.

Russian missiles hit Kyiv on April 24: The missile that killed 12 Ukrainians in Kyiv yesterday contained at least 116 components — most of them, sadly, made in the U.S., Zelensky said.

Combat Situation

Russia is waging small-scale assaults across the entire front, but the situation on the battlefield is nowhere near bad enough for Ukraine to be forced into an unfavorable peace deal, military analysts and soldiers told the Kyiv Independent.

US rejects Russian demand for Ukraine's full withdrawal from partially occupied oblasts, NYT reports. The United States considers the demand an "unreasonable and unachievable" condition, a source told the New York Times.
During the night and morning of Friday, April 25, the Russian army launched 26 strikes on border areas and settlements in Sumy Oblast, with 57 explosions recorded. One person was injured.

CDS: The primary goal of Russia’s Armed Forces in 2025 remains the capture of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk urban agglomeration. Responsibility for this operation has been assigned to the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, whose operational zone stretches from the Lyman direction to the Toretsk direction (adjacent to Pokrovsk), covering about 140 kilometers.

Overnight 23-24 April 2025, Russia conducted a large-scale multi-axis, multi-weapon strike package against Ukraine utilising Long Range Aviation (LRA) bombers as well as Black Sea Fleet vessels and Ground Force elements, predominantly targeting Kyiv and Kharkiv as well other cities across Ukraine.

Russian forces launched at least 200 munitions, including One Way Attack Uncrewed Aerial Systems (OWA UAS), at least 10 Ballistic Missiles (both Russian indigenous and procured from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea), their premier KODIAK Air Launched Cruise Missiles, and KALIBR Land Attack Cruise Missiles. This combination of munitions almost certainly sought to complicate and saturate Ukrainian Air Defence efforts. The Ukrainian Air Force reported intercepting 112 munitions, as well as interdicting others via electronic warfare.

The KODIAK remains the pace-setting missile for Russian large scale strike packages.

North Korea is now officially involved in the war against Ukraine. For the first time, the Kremlin confirmed that DPRK troops are engaged in combat with Ukrainian forces. Russia’s Chief of General Staff Gerasimov praised the North Korean soldiers for their “high level of professionalism” during battles near Kursk.

Dropping like flies: Russian EW systems designer reportedly killed in car bombing in Bryansk. Yevgeny Rytikov was killed when he and his colleague entered a car in the Russian city of Bryansk, some 100 kilometers (60 miles) north of the Russia-Ukraine border, RBC-Ukraine wrote, citing undisclosed Ukrainian Defense Forces sources.

Suspect detained in Moscow car bombing, Russian FSB claims. Ignat Kuzin was detained for allegedly planting a bomb that killed a senior Russian general, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) said on April 26, alleging that Kuzin is a Ukrainian agent.

Noel Report: High-quality satellite images of the 51st GRAU arsenal in Russia’s Vladimir region after the ammo detonation. A big part of the storage facility has been destroyed.

Behind the Lines

The “American” and Ukrainian proposals for peace were published yesterday by Reuters. From my sources at the EU, the European proposal was reached in cooperation with the Ukrainians. The American proposal reflects the Russian position.

VP Vance urged Ukraine and Russia to accept the peace proposal presented by the ‘US’, threatening that Washington would “walk away” if it was not accepted.
The ‘American’-Russian proposal amounts to a surrender of Ukrainian sovereignty over its own territory, which will never be accepted. “There is nothing new to mention or discuss. Ukraine will not recognise the occupation of Crimea,” he had said, adding that it would be incompatible with Ukraine’s constitution.
Given its position in the Black Sea, Ukraine is right to reject the suggestion of giving up Crimea. First off, Crimea is Ukrainian territory. It’s also a huge aircraft carrier and springboard for any attacks against Ukraine in one of the world’s greatest trade routes—the Middle Corridor—and provides access to the Mediterranean.
Besides the Russians, the Chinese are also aggressively trying to take control of the South Caucasus and the Black Sea area by offering low-quality infrastructure projects, and providing surveillance systems to Georgia and Azerbaijan. I’ll expand on this, and especially about Georgia, soon.

The production of the domestic produced Bohdana self-propelled howitzer has reached 36 units per month — more than one system per day, a very strong result. Ukraine is stepping up its armament production: sources reveal that it can produce drones and tanks at 30% normal costs and five times faster.

Russian military helicopter violates Polish airspace to probe air defenses, Poland says. The helicopter was tracked by Polish military radar systems and civilian systems of the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency over Poland's territorial waters in the Baltic Sea.

Ukraine detains Russian 'shadow fleet' ship smuggling stolen grain from Crimea, SBU says. Investigators said the vessel had loaded around 5,000 tons of stolen Ukrainian wheat from the Russian-occupied port city of Sevastopol in late 2024 and attempted to disguise its operations by sailing under the flag of an Asian country.

Meanwhile in Russia & China…

Moscow Times: During a meeting with US Presidential Special Envoy Steven Witkoff, Vladimir Putin confirmed Moscow's readiness to resume negotiations with Kiev without any preconditions. This was reported by the Russian president's press secretary Dmitry Peskov.

On April 25, Steve Witkoff visited Russia for the fourth time in three months. He held a three-hour meeting with Putin in the Kremlin. According to Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, the parties discussed the possibility of "resumption of direct negotiations" between Moscow and Kiev and a number of other issues.
Consider that Russia has actually increased its missile strikes against Ukraine:

Interpol investigates Russian company for human trafficking over African workers in Tatarstan drone factory. Since launching in 2022, Alabuga Start has recruited around 350 women from over 40 countries to work in Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Russia's Republic of Tatarstan and aims to bring 8,500 more this year, according to Bloomberg.

Russia imposed sanctions on 15 UK MPs and six members of the House of Lords, banning them from the country over what it called “hostile statements and unfounded accusations” about Moscow.

Moscow Times: Russian industry is more than 98% dependent on imported machine tools.

In Russia, amid statements about import substitution, the production of domestic machine tools has more than doubled, but the dependence of enterprises on foreign equipment still remains almost absolute. In 2024, Russian companies purchased 693 thousand machine tools, which is almost a third less than the peak of 1 million in 2023. At the same time, 98.3% of the purchased equipment was foreign-made. This follows from the calculations of the consulting company ATK+, which are cited by Vedomosti. At the same time, according to ATK+, Russia's own production of machine tools has more than doubled in five years (from 2020 to 2024) - from 5,300 to 11,360 units.

Julia Davis: Meanwhile in Russia: Vladimir Solovyov and his fellow propagandists explained what they see as the real reason Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine.

Money Control: How China is creating 'roadblocks' for Apple to move its production of iPhones to India

In the last few years, Apple has upped the ante when it comes to assembling iPhones in India. The recent fall out of Trump tariffs has given — not just Apple — tech companies a big reason to further reduce their dependence on China. However, it looks like Apple’s plan to shift a larger share of iPhone production to India is running into quiet but persistent resistance from Beijing.

China has seized Sand Cay Island in the South China Sea, which belongs to Vietnam, – FT. Chinese forces occupied the uninhabited island hosting Vietnamese military facilities and a fishing station. Some suggest China may be testing regional readiness.

The Guardian: As more develops about the US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, and his repeated disclosures of sensitive military intelligence in unsecured Signal group chats, there are growing concerns his behavior has weakened the Pentagon in the eyes of its foreign adversaries and made him and his entourage a top espionage target.

In the EU…

Edward Lucas, America Will Miss Europe’s Dependence When It’s Gone

The United States has long had a clear message to its European allies: Do more!
Spend more on defense, shoulder more risk, accept more inconvenience, spurn Soviet and Russian natural gas, catch Kremlin spies, push back against communist-led trade unions, send European armed forces to fight in U.S. wars—the list was long. Europe’s contribution was never enough. Indeed, discontent about burden-sharing precedes the founding of NATO. At a 1949 Senate hearing on U.S. accession to the alliance, Secretary of State Dean Acheson was asked if this would mean “substantial numbers of troops over there.” He responded: “The answer to that question, senator, is a clear and absolute no!” The assumption at the bloc’s founding was that U.S. support was a bridge to European self-reliance.

Rusudan Djakeli: The EU flag waves in front of the statue of King David the Builder — one of Georgia’s greatest leaders, known for uniting the country, defending its independence, and leading sweeping reforms that strengthened the state. Day 150 of daily protests in Georgia.

John Schindler, Putin shows NATO his dangerous Balkan hand

In 1888, a generation before the First World War started, the German arch-statesman Otto von Bismarck predicted that a great European war was coming over some “damn foolish thing in the Balkans.” Tensions in Southeastern Europe have a troublesome habit of dragging in outside powers, sometimes with terrible consequences.
The region is experiencing another bout of squabbling, which threatens to involve NATO if tensions keep rising. The Atlantic Alliance had to intervene militarily twice in the 1990s to resolve Balkan wars emanating from the collapse of Yugoslavia. Russia, weak and divided in the wake of communism’s painful downfall, failed to intervene against NATO. We may not be so lucky the next time.

Ariana Gic: The Chairs of the Foreign Affairs Committee of Ukraine, Czech Republic, Lithuania, France, Latvia, UK, and Estonia call upon Trump to demonstrate true leadership in confronting the global threat posed by Russia as an aggressor state, and urge an end to the policy of appeasement. They call for a united, resolute stance against Russia:

Nicholae Bian, Simion, $1.5 million contract from Romanians' money to denigrate Romania in the USA / See the contract

AUR leader George Simion approved the signing of a $1.5 million contract from Romanians' money to denigrate Romania in the US, during interviews and meetings with American officials, as shown in a contract obtained by G4Media.ro.
The contract signed on 18.04.2025 provides for a lobbying campaign to secure Simion support from well-known American personalities, especially promoters of the MAGA movement. The amount spent would come from the money that AUR obtains from the subsidy paid by the Romanian state to parliamentary parties.

The Atlantic Council: the Russian Sanctions Database

After Russia’s illegal full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western partners imposed unprecedented financial sanctions and export controls against Russia. These measures aim to achieve three objectives:

1. Significantly reduce Russia’s revenues from commodities exports;
2. Cripple Russia’s military capability and ability to pursue its war;
3. Impose significant pain on the Russian economy.

The Atlantic Council’s Russia Sanctions Database tracks the restrictive economic measures Western allies have placed on Russia and evaluates whether these measures are successful in achieving the stated objectives and bringing lasting peace to Ukraine. The Database is now static and was last updated in November 2024. You can access the final version here.

Other news…

April 28 General Election: The Liberal Party, Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois and the New Democratic Party are heading off in one of Canada’s most important elections to date. Polls put Mark Carney and the Liberal Party ahead of Pierre Poillievres’s Tories.

Canada is facing continued economic turmoil due to Trump’s insane tariff war, and needs a steady hand to guide the ship. Carney is well-suited (no pun intended) to take on Trump. He was the governor of the Bank of Canada during the economic collapse in 2008, and called on in 2013 by the Brits to head up the Bank of England, making sure the pound didn’t collapse after Brexit.
Had I had the opportunity to go to Toronto to cast my vote, it would have been for Carney. I’ve been following the antics of Pierre ‘Maple Maga’ for a few years, and feared he was going to sweep these elections. My contacts in Toronto report that at the door in their areas, Carney seems to be the choice.
I’ll be reporting on the election results on Tuesday once they’re available.