Apr 27: E-Stories
InUkraine SitRep BehindLines Russia-China MadiEcoForecast EU SamuSports AC Brands Patridge Vincent UAArtHistory IntlSpyMuseum Caolan ATESH Kubilius VOA Iran Conclave Sherwood
Catching up…
New feature: Madi Kapparov’s Economic Weather Forcecast. Madi will guide us through some of the pressing economic news.
New feature: Samuela Pierini will be giving us her take on F1 and Moto GP (her thing), as well as other sporting events.
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
3 killed, 25 injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine over past day. Russian attacks against Ukraine killed at least three people and injured at least 22, including a child, over the past day, regional authorities reported on April 26.
Luke Harding: ‘I haven’t slept for two days’: Kharkiv residents reel from Russian attacks
About 1am on Friday, Yuliia Verbytska woke to the sound of an air raid siren. She grabbed her teenage children – Dmitry, 17, and Olexiy, 12 – and sat in the corridor, checking her phone. In the sky above came an ominous whine. Minutes later, a Russian drone crashed into the disused soap factory down the road in Polyova Street. There was an enormous explosion.
“We don’t have a shelter in our building, so we hide behind two concrete walls. All the neighbours sit together. You wonder if this is your last moment,” she said. Friday’s raid followed a massive attack on Thursday on Verbytska’s home, Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, and on the capital, Kyiv, where 12 people were killed. “I haven’t slept for two days,” she said wearily.
Caolan’s report from Kherson:
Trump adamant about Russia keeping Ukraine's land but flexible on formal Crimea recognition, Times reports. Trump believes the Ukrainian leader "really has no choice" but to agree to the terms, according to a source close to U.S Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. Mo: The last time I checked, the Ukrainians had voted for their president and have one. It is simply not feasible for any Ukrainian president to cede his people’s land.
The Sun: “Do me a favor, you’re not supposed to be here”: lip readers revealed Trump refused Macron to join them. Zelensky told Trump, “I would like you to end the war, but not like this.” Trump replied, “That’s a very interesting strategy. You can be sure.”
Russian mobilization of Ukrainian children. Truly horrific that this is happening: Ukrainian children in the occupied territories are being trained for the military: In five years, they’ll be ready to “liberate” the rest of Ukraine — then Poland, the Baltics, and eventually all of Europe.
Dietmar Pichler: 39 years after Chornobyl. The Soviet regime, even under Gorbachev, lied to its own people and to the world. They downplayed the catastrophe and accused the West of disinformation and exaggeration. More than a decade ago, I visited the Chornobyl Museum in Kyiv (pictures attached). There, you not only get an explanation of what happened on a technological and humanitarian level, but you also see the full scale of Soviet propaganda.
Ukrainian Art History: By the way, Chornobyl was a shtetl too. From the mid-18th century, Chornobyl was known in the Jewish world as an important center of Hassidism under the Twersky Dynasty. The Jewish community was later murdered during the Holocaust. Synagogue in Chornobyl
Combat Situation
CDS: Russia launched 149 drones at Ukraine overnight. 57 drones were shot down, and 67 decoy drones were neutralized without reaching their targets. Damage reported in Zhytomyr, Dnipro, Odesa, Donetsk, Sumy, and Cherkasy regions.
Kyiv denies Russia's claim of Kursk Oblast recapture, as Moscow confirms North Korea role. Russian forces have fully retaken the territory of Kursk Oblast, the Russian border region partially held by Ukraine since last August, the Kremlin claims.
ISW: Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov claimed on April 26 that Russian forces pushed all Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast. Ukraine's August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast successfully pinned some Russian combat power, including elite airborne.
Ukraine still operating in Kursk Oblast, monitoring group says. Ukrainian troops face a difficult situation in Kursk, but the Kremlin's announcement was "a fake," the monitoring service DeepState reported on April 26.
Russian assault groups continue attempts to enter Sumy Oblast, Ukraine's border guard says. The situation in the Sumy Oblast remains "challenging," State Border Guard spokesperson Andrii Demchenko said.
Russia training to integrate motorcycles into summer offensive in Ukraine, ISW says. Training footage indicates that Russia may be developing "a tactical doctrine for systematic offensive motorcycle usage," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on April 26.
Behind the Lines
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railway in occupied Luhansk Oblast, group claims. The sabotage operation disrupted Russian supply lines and led to delays in the delivery of equipment and spare parts, the partisan group Atesh claimed on April 27.
Russian military helicopter violates Polish airspace to probe air defenses, Poland says. The helicopter was tracked by Polish military radar systems and civilian systems of the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency over Poland's territorial waters in the Baltic Sea.
Joseph Fitkanakis; British civil servants warned of listening devices in pubs near government buildings.
Britain’s Security Agencies have reportedly warned civil servants and parliamentarians that public places located near government buildings may be bugged by foreign intelligence agencies. The warning covers the SW1 postcode district of southwest London, which encompasses the City of Westminster and includes the Houses of Parliament, the Office of the Prime Minister at 10 Downing Steet, and Whitehall. The latter is home to several ministries and departments, including the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the Cabinet office, and the Ministry of Defense.
CIA confirms deputy director’s son killed while fighting in Ukraine. The son of a deputy head of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was killed "while fighting in the conflict in Ukraine" in 2024, a CIA spokesperson said on April 25, according to NBC News.
Republican senator calls for secondary tariffs on Russian energy buyers. "As to additional sanctions on Putin's Russia, I have bipartisan legislation with almost 60 cosponsors that would put secondary tariffs on any country that purchases Russian oil, gas, uranium, or other products," U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham said on April 26.
Decode39: Rome’s security interests increasingly depend on what happens in Africa—not only for energy and migration but also for broader geopolitical balance. Intelligence efforts are being reshaped accordingly. Key drivers of instability:
Transnational terrorism remains a high-priority concern, with groups operating across the Sahel and North Africa.
Irregular migration is viewed not just as a humanitarian issue but a hybrid threat, often linked to criminal networks and foreign actors.
Russia and China are expanding their foreign influence through military, economic, and infrastructure investments.
Resource security is at stake, especially for critical raw materials and rare earths essential to Europe's green and digital transitions.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
McDonald's applies to register trademark in Russia. The company does not plan to re-enter the Russian market, but wants to "prevent third-party businesses" from taking advantage of the brand, McDonald's said in a statement. Mo: This doesn’t bode well.
McDonald's is not going to resume operations in Russia. "Our position is clear and remains unchanged," the corporation said in a statement published on the page of its Ukrainian division in X.
The Chagos Islands and why they’re important…
Joanna Patridge, US forges ahead with plans for steep port fees on China-built vessels
The Trump administration is forging ahead with plans to charge steep fees on Chinese-built ships for stopping at US ports in an effort to revive its shipbuilding industry, but scaled back the penalties after warnings about the impact on consumers.
The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) significantly watered down original plans from February, under which vessels built in China would be charged $3.5m (£2.6m) each time they docked at a US port. The US and China are locked in a trade war.
Madi’s Economic Weather Forecast….
The Trump administration continues to be a menace to economists attempting to forecast the future. While some analysts predicted a pullback on the US markets in the second half of 2025, tariffs upended all expectations.
Though Trump introduced a 90-day moratorium on his “reciprocal tariffs” with exception of China, the markets have not regained their footing and still experience higher than normal volatility. Consumer discretionary companies were the first to suffer but not even the defense sector is safe from Trump’s tariffed foreign policy, e.g. this past week RTX (Raytheon) reported earnings cautioning a $850M hit from tariffs over 2025.
Though the US and Europe are not yet in a recession, there are growing concerns. The final results for April 2025 of the UMich consumer sentiment survey indicate that one-year inflation expectations are at the highest since 1981 at 6.5%. The IMF World Economic Outlook reference forecast slashed GDP growth by a cumulative 0.8% over the next two years in April as compared to their January forecasts, driven by US tariff policy severing global trade links. We are in a new era where economic priorities no longer dictate policymaking. The relationship is now flipped – political objectives determine economic measures.
In the EU…
EuroMaidan Staff, “Europe at a crossroads”: Open letter calls for 180,000 European troops to defend Ukraine
500 prominent European figures, including Nobel laureate Harvey J. Alter, have signed an open letter urging European governments to deploy 180,000 troops to defend Ukraine’s borders against Russian aggression. The appeal comes as a “Coalition of the Willing” – now encompassing 30 countries led by the UK and France – has been formed to create a “reassurance force” for Ukraine. While only France and the UK have officially committed troops so far, the coalition is working on the details of deploying forces to strategic locations like cities, ports, and power plants across Ukraine, though not along front lines. Concerns continue to grow about Belarus’s Zapad-2025 military exercises potentially serving as a prelude to a new invasion of Ukraine.
US signals support for Europe's peacekeeping coalition in Ukraine, Telegraph reports. While Trump has refused to commit American troops, U.S. officials have reportedly opened the door to providing intelligence-sharing and logistical aid to the so-called "coalition of the willing."
RFI: France is boosting arms production to supply Ukraine, with KNDS increasing output of Caesar howitzers and other weapons critical to Ukraine’s defense against Russia.
Jacques Follorou, France is massively rejecting Russian visa applications over espionage fears
Paris has denied 1,200 visas and accreditations for diplomats or 'speakers' wishing to attend conferences, aiming to prevent Moscow from rebuilding an intelligence network decimated by the expulsion of agents operating under diplomatic cover.
Review of The Illegals: I’m currently reading the brilliant book by Shawn Walker on the Illegals—“the agents who lived apparently normal lives in the west as part of Soviet espionage programmes”. You’ll begin the journey in 1905 with the Bolshevik revolutionaries running from the Okhrana, and how the Soviets developed the use of secret agents embedded in the West during the Cold War.
Elise Vincent, European intelligence services worry about future of cooperation with US
While not publicly expressed, genuine concern exists among Western intelligence services about future cooperation with the United States. As Washington continues to emphasize its intention to accelerate its "pivot" toward Asia, and after the Pentagon suspended its intelligence support to Ukraine between March 5 and 8, this precedent has caused a real shock, several security, military, and diplomatic sources told Le Monde in recent weeks. The Trump administration's actions have led to unprecedented reflection among allies. On April 17, the issue was prominently featured on the agenda of French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu's first visit to Washington since Trump's inauguration.
Aneta Zachova, Spa town spies: Czech church linked to Kremlin kompromat campaign
PRAGUE – An orthodox church in a small Czech town was used by Russian agents for covert meetings and influence operations aimed at destabilising the EU, Czech intelligence has revealed.
Operatives from Russia's GRU military intelligence agency held secret gatherings in the West Bohemian spa town of Karlovy Vary, according to the Czech Security Information Service (BIS).
Some meetings, BIS officials say, were directly linked to hostile actions against EU member states.
“This is not a church in the traditional sense – it is part of the Kremlin’s machinery,” Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský told the Czech News Agency. “Rather than spiritual work, their efforts are aimed at serving Russian state interests.”
The former head of the Karlovy Vary parish, Nikolai Lishchenyuk, was expelled from the country last year over national security concerns. Local officials described him as a loyal Kremlin emissary who used his religious post to spread propaganda against Ukraine and the West.
The Conclave: can we please dispel with the labels ‘moderate’ or ‘liberal’ when referring to the Cardinal electors? The Vatican doesn’t really reflect our labels for political affiliation and belief, and if we apply them, it would be an exercise in mirror-imaging. Most are traditionalists; that’s about it. The main strategic objective for the Vatican is to maintain its power in the world through soft and hard power. The graph below is misleading because it implies that the Vatican harbours moderate views or conservative views to pick the next Bishop of Rome. Vatican calculus may be quite different.
Will it continue Francis’s veering towards Asia and Africa to consolidate or penetrate those regions?
Harriet Sherwood reports that, “Francis was more inclined to promote his ideological confreres, but he didn’t exclusively appoint those who appeared to agree with him. He had other priorities – to make the college of cardinals as inclusive as possible, which meant choosing men from very small Catholic communities like Iran and Algeria and Mongolia and balancing it away from its rich European and North American heartlands.”
In 2013, more than half of cardinal electors were European. Now, the proportion has dropped to 39%, while 18% come from Asia, 18% from Latin America and the Caribbean, and 12% from sub-Saharan Africa.
In other news…
AP: The CIA confirmed on Wednesday that it has offered buyouts to employees who voluntarily resign, the latest group of workers targeted in President Donald Trump’s push to transform the federal government.
In a statement sent to The Associated Press, the CIA said the buyout offers are part of an effort by Ratcliffe to move swiftly “to ensure the CIA workforce is responsive to the Administration’s national security priorities.”
“These moves are part of a holistic strategy to infuse the Agency with renewed energy, provide opportunities for rising leaders to emerge, and better position the CIA to deliver on its mission,” the agency said about the buyouts, which were first reported by The Wall Street Journal.
Mo: I’m following how far this will go. The IC underwent huge overhauls in the mid-80s as well, which many IC analysts and watchers have said brought to the weaknesses the US had to deal with during the GWOT after 9/11.
Nine people were killed when a driver ploughed a car into a crowd at a street festival, Lapu Lapu Day, on Saturday in Vancouver in Canada, local police said.
Police said the incident took place at East 41st Avenue and Fraser Street shortly after 8pm local time, as members of the Filipino community gathered to celebrate Lapu Lapu Day, a festival put on by British Columbia’s Filipino community that commemorates a Filipino anti-colonial leader from the 16th century. The police have said that the incident was not an act of terrorism.
General Election in Canada…mmmm…maybe a plot twist?
Hal Brands, Trump Is Facing Six Wars, and He’s Losing All of Them
Donald Trump anointed himself, in his second inaugural, as the world’s “peacemaker.” Just three months later, his presidency is consumed by conflict. The coming months will be Trump’s season of crisis, a legacy-making period in which he must navigate three hot wars, a cold war, a potential war and a trade war.
Unfortunately, he’s starting from a deficit of his own making: His decisions have left America’s alliances strained, its economic power tattered, and its strategic competence in question.
The first war is the one Trump has always seemed most confident about ending: the cataclysmic conflict in Ukraine. Trump wagered that making peace would be easy — a matter of menacing Russia with sanctions and forcing Ukraine to give up on regaining lost lands. Yet Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s maximalist aims, and his belief that he is slowly winning, have made reaching a settlement all too hard.
Iran: Iranian journalist Mohamad Ahwaze writes: “Aerial footage shows explosions at three separate locations in the port of Bandar Abbas, refuting claims of a single blast.” Please go over to Scott’s EA Worldview website for more news and analysis regarding this event.
Up-date: Secondary explosions hit containers at Ali Rajaei Port, reigniting the fire this afternoon.
Atlantic Council with Dr Ben Schmitt—May 1, 2025: Underwater mayhem: Countering NATO energy & critical infrastructure threats
The Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and Eurasia Center are co-hosting a hybrid discussion on the challenges of protecting NATO’s energy and critical infrastructure from physical sabotage perpetrated by Russia, centered around the launch of an insightful new report, “Underwater Mayhem: Countering Threats to Energy and Critical Infrastructure Across the NATO Alliance and Beyond”.
Register for the event here.
International Spy Museum: To celebrate National Coin Week, we're taking a look back at our talented designer Emily's work creating an amazing challenge coin for our SpyCast guests.
Samu’s Sports…
F1 is on pause this weekend, while the teams are preparing for the Miami Gran Prix. In Jeddah, Saudia Arabia, Charles Leclerc snatched third position after an outstanding race for the Ferrari driver—one of the best performances of his career. Let’s see what Charles and Lewis Hamilton can come up with next week in Miami. Lewis had been running for Mercedes (Boooooo!) for 12 seasons, but is now wearing Ferrari red.
Fun Fact: Ferrari fans all over the world are not called ‘fans’, but take on the Italian— “TIFOSI”.
Photo: Milan's Piazza Castello on March 6, before heading to Australia for the start of the Formula One season. Getty Photos.
This weekend the Moto GP is in Jerez de la Frontera (Spain), where French-born Fabio Quartararo—El Diablo—got the pole position for Yamaha, ahead of Marc Marquez and Francesco Bagnaia both on Ducati.
