Apr 27: E-Stories
RUattacksUA Alla UAstrikes CombatSit BehindLines Tblisi InRussia Ivanov Lukashenka Allies NATO FR GR NTH CH A&P Darth Baklanova UKDef ISW CDS Noel Abel Kenyon Lautman Kokcharov Blinken SCOTUS ISPI
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
See my comments below: Darth and I agree on this.
Stories we’re following…
Ukrainian journalist, soldier killed on front lines. Ukrainian journalist and soldier Alla Pushkarchuk, call sign "Ruta," was killed in action in Donetsk Oblast on April 25.
Maya Baklanova: Alla Pushkaruk ("Ruta"), a courageous military servicewoman and journalist, lost her life on the front lines yesterday. She perished in her husband's arms due to rocket fire, a tragic consequence of global blindness, lack of support, delayed aid, and ammunition shortage. RIP Alla.
Russian forces hit a Ukrainian drone production facility and a Ukrainian army fuel depot, Russia’s defence ministry said on Wednesday.
70% of energy infrastructure damaged by Russian attacks in Kyiv has been restored, authorities say. More than 1,000 units of electrical equipment damaged due to Russian attacks have been restored in Kyiv, amounting to 70% of the damage caused by drones and missiles, the Kyiv City Military Administration announced on April 25.
Apr 26—Maria Avdeeva: “Kids' hospital in Kyiv forced to evacuate because some bloodthirsty terrorists spread lies about soldiers hiding there. This is the sickening result of Russia's disinformation.
Noel Report: Several oil refineries attacked this night (Apr 27) in the Krasnodar Territory, Russian media report. The Slovyansk-ECO and Ilya refinery, the Bitumen plant as well as other infrastructure hit. Among them a military airfield in Kushchevsk.
Footage of a Ukrainian one way attack drone slamming into the Russian Slavyansk-na-Kubani refinery in Krasnodar Oblast earlier during the night.
A fire broke out in the Naftovyki industrial zone in Omsk, Russia. The fire is 500m² and spreading. Three oil containers have already caught fire.
Source: Ukraine destroys Russian Ka-32 helicopter at Moscow airfield. A Russian multirole helicopter Ka-32 was destroyed at the Ostafyevo airfield in Moscow overnight on April 26, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) reported. An intelligence source confirmed to the Kyiv Independent that the helicopter was destroyed as a result of a HUR operation.
Combat Situation Update
The Russian flag is hoisted in the eastern part of Soloviove, Avdiivka direction. It is likely that Russian forces control the small settlement, and the AFU has retreated further towards both Sokil and Novopokrovske.
Military: Russian forces trying to encircle Chasiv Yar. Russian troops are trying to encircle the town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, Nazar Voloshyn, the Khortytsia Group of Forces' spokesperson, said on national television on April 26.
Forbes: Ukrainian multicopter heavy bombers are almost always fitted with thermal imagers and used as night bombers. The Russians can still hear them –- they are described as sounding ‘like a chainsaw’ – but not see them, even when they start bombing. No wonder they have become figures of terror. The name of the drone is Baba Yaga, which does not refer to a specific drone type, but is a nickname given by Russian soldiers to any multicopter night bomber.
Belgium has decided to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine as early as this year. Previously, deliveries were planned for 2025. The planes are delivered as soon as possible while the exact amount is still undisclosed.
Reuters: The US in recently shipped long-range missiles in secret to Ukraine. The missiles were contained in a $300 million military aid package approved on March 12. The amount of missiles that were included is unknown, but recently Ukraine used them in Crimea.
Media: Number of Russian drones on front lines has doubled in 3 months. The sources in the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces told the outlet that Ukrainian efforts to counter drones by electronic means were becoming less effective as Moscow's forces adapted to changes in technology.
AP: Ukraine pulls US Abrams tanks from battlefield amid Russian drone threat. According to senior U.S. military officials, Russian surveillance drones and hunter-killer drones have changed the situation on the ground substantially, increasing the vehicles' risk of detection.
Behind the Lines
Reuters: Satellite imagery shows ship likely used to transfer North Korean arms to Russia docked in Chinese port. The U.K.'s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank said the cargo ship the Angara, currently docked at a shipyard in China's eastern Zhejiang province, has been involved in carrying North Korean military cargo to Russia overseas.
Politico: Prosecutors in Dresden are investigating whether Maximilian Krah, the AfD’s accepted illicit payments from Russia and China “for his work as an MEP.” So far, the AfD is sticking with thrice-married father of eight, who denies any wrongdoing.
Trouble for Krah is that police on Monday arrested one of his aides, Chinese-born Jian Guo, for allegedly spying for China. Prosecutors say Guo, an avowed Xi Xinping devotee who runs a sideline importing lamps from China, used his access to the European Parliament to pass information onto his handlers in Beijing.
A Ukrainian court ordered the country’s agriculture minister, Mykola Solskyi, to be taken into custody today, Reuters reported. Solskyi, the first known minister under Zelensky to be named in a corruption case, is facing allegations of alleged involvement in illegal acquisition of state-owned land.
Vote in the EU Parliament on Russian interference, and on the need for sanctions on Medvedchuk and the Russian propaganda network "Voice of Europe". It passes with 429 yes, 27 no and 48 abstentions. Vox, the League, the 5 Star Movement, and Meloni’s Brothers of Italy abstain.
Protests continue on Day 12 in Tbilisi, Georgia, against the new “foreign agents” law passed by the parliament, and because of the quasi-Russian satellite state status Georgia is headed towards.
Chinese officials separately met with US, Russian counterparts at Western Pacific Naval Symposium. Senior Chinese military officials separately met U.S. and Russian naval counterparts at the Western Pacific Naval Symposium in Qingdao, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian said during a press briefing on April 25.
Bloomberg: Qatar to host meeting on Ukrainian peace plan. The final list of countries attending the Qatar meeting has not been finalized but Russia has not been invited and China's participation remains unclear, Bloomberg said.
Two British men have been charged with helping Russian intelligence after a suspected arson attack on a business linked to Ukraine. Prosecutors announced Friday that Dylan Earl, aged 20, and Jake Reeves, 22, had been charged with national security offenses after a blaze at a warehouse in east London in March.
Reeves meanwhile faces charges of agreeing “to accept a material benefit from a foreign intelligence service,” as well as arson.
Three other defendants — Nii Mensah, Dmitrijus Paulauska and Paul English — all face arson but not espionage charges, while Paulauska is accused of having “information about terrorist acts.”
The British defence secretary, Grant Shapps, has said that “the allegations of Russian malign activity in the UK are deeply concerning. Anyone found guilty of assisting a foreign intelligence service will be held to account,” he added.
Meanwhile in Russia
New owners of companies bought from expatriates who are leaving the country have begun to consider reselling them as they cannot cope with KPIs (key performance indicators). This was reported by lawyers and consultants at the XIV Bond Congress of Cbonds, writes RBC.
According to Kesarev Consulting partner Vitaly Zhigulin, maintaining performance indicators was one of the conditions for the government to approve the deal to buy out a business from foreigners. A number of new owners quickly realized that they could not meet this requirement and were looking for options for resale, the expert noted.
It is being reported security services were looking for the director of the museum, Anton Belov, and several other employees.
Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister, has said Russia is ready to expand military cooperation with Iran, Reuters reported citing the RIA state news agency.
As promised, here are the interiors of Ivanov’s home. Why he was arrested is still up in the air, even if we know that officially he’s been charged with corruption.
SIM cards have begun to be blocked en masse for Russians: about 300 thousand subscribers are cut off from communications per week at the request of Roskomnadzor, a source in a large telecom operator told Kommersant. “All this is happening as part of the fight against the gray market of SIM cards, which began last year. Now the process of interaction with Roskomnadzor has been set up, everything is on stream,” explained the source of the publication.
German defense minister: Russia already produces surplus military equipment. Russia is already producing more arms and military equipment than it needs for its war against Ukraine, and is filling its weapons warehouses, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, as reported by the German television channel n-tv on April 25.
The Dutch auction house Troostwijk Auctions is going to auction the superyacht Royal Romance of the pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedtsyuk. It was chained in Croatia in 2022. Money raised will go to Ukraine.
Russia vetoes UN vote on nuclear weapons in space. Speaking on April 24, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., described Russia's veto as "baffling."
On Thursday, Lukashenka announced that drones from Poland were swarming into Belarus. As Hanna Liubakova pointed out, we may think that is ridiculous, but the Belarusian population has been cut off from Western media sources, and they may believe this to be true. It’s clearly a scare tactic. Lukashenka is also now threatening the families of dissidents abroad.
Lukashenko on Thursday warned potential enemies of his nation "that if they set foot on the Belarusian soil, they will get an instant response with all kinds of weapons," including nuclear ones.
Allied Support
European Parliament condemns Putin's election as illegitimate. The European Parliament overwhelmingly adopted a resolution condemning Russian President Vladimir Putin's March presidential election as illegitimate, Ukrinform reported on April 25.
In a resolution adopted on Thursday, Parliament denounces the illegitimate presidential election in Russia and the Russian occupied territories of Ukraine.
Following the so-called presidential election held by Russia on 15-17 March 2024, MEPs urge EU member states and the international community not to recognise the outcome as legitimate, as it was held in the illegally occupied territories of Ukraine, and within Russia, it was neither free nor fair.
This farcical performance by the Russian authorities had the single goal of creating the appearance of electoral legitimacy for Vladimir Putin, his policy of relentless domestic repression and, most of all, for the war of aggression against Ukraine, say MEPs. Parliament deplores that the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, chose to deviate from the EU and congratulate Vladimir Putin on his sham re-election.
EU must actively support Russian civil society and democratic opposition
Parliament calls upon member states to limit relations with Putin to matters necessary for regional peace as well as humanitarian and human rights purposes, for example prisoner exchanges, the return of children deported from Ukraine or calling for the release of political prisoners.
It reiterates that the EU should stand in full solidarity with Russian civil society and should sanction perpetrators of human rights violations. MEPs call on the EU and member states to continue to actively support independent Russian civil society organisations, independent media outlets and human rights defenders and to actively engage with and offer support to the Russian democratic opposition.
The resolution was adopted with 493 votes in favour, 11 against and 18 abstentions.
El Pais: Spain will supply a small batch of Patriot missiles to Ukraine but refused to deliver a Patriot battery. Furthermore Spain is preparing a new arms package which will be sent befoe the 30rd of June. It includes 10 of the 19 Leopard 2 A4 battle tanks that are being refurbished at this moment, and will be added to the 10 delivered last year.
UK prime minister Rishi Sunak said the UK and Germany will provide “unwavering support” for Ukraine “for as long as it takes”, as he visited Berlin to deepen defence and security ties between the two allies. Sunak said “every country has got different things that it can bring to the table” after German chancellor Olaf Scholz said his decision not to deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv “will not change”.
I’ll be posting about Macron’s speech in a post once I’ve listened to it. I couldn’t resist posting this picture.
Greece won't send Patriots to Ukraine. Greece will not supply Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems or S-300 missiles, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on April 25.
Let me explain it a little more in detail: Greece has supported Ukraine in various ways, with defense material. But we have said from the first moment that we cannot dispose of weapons systems which are critical to our deterrent capability. We have surplus material with which we can support Ukraine, we have done so and I think it is the right choice. And, to the extent that we can find such material, we will continue to do so. However, the air defense systems, to which you referred, are critical systems for the protection of the Greek airspace and will not be granted to Ukraine," Prime Minister Mitsotakis said.
Denmark announces additional $633 million in military support to Ukraine. The Danish parliament agreed to add 4.4 billion Danish kroner ($633 million) in military support to the country's Ukraine Fund in 2024, the Danish Foreign Ministry announced on April 25.
NATO Sec General, Jens Stoltenberg takes to the skies: You’ll remember an E-Stories post about Czechia’s PM, Petr Pavel, who did the same about a month ago. I find it quite interesting that so many leaders who have come from a military background were part of the air force.
Reuters: Next round of EU sanctions on Russia to target shadow fleet, ships transporting North Korean equipment. EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said earlier in April that the bloc is preparing its 14th round of sanctions against Russia, which should be adopted in spring.
Italy to cooperate with UNESCO in rebuilding Odesa, cathedral damaged by Russian attacks. The historic cathedral was partially destroyed by Russian missile strikes on the city in July 2023, which also killed one person and injured at least 18 others.
Blinken tells CNN the US has seen evidence of China attempting to influence upcoming US elections
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US has seen evidence of Chinese attempts to “influence and arguably interfere” with the upcoming US elections, despite an earlier commitment from leader Xi Jinping not to do so.
Blinken made the comments to CNN’s Kylie Atwood in an interview Friday at the close of a three-day trip to China, where the top American diplomat spent hours meeting with top Chinese officials including Xi, as the two countries navigated a raft of contentious issues from US tech controls to Beijing’s support for Moscow.
The question and statement below took place at the US Supreme Court on Thursday, which is hearing oral arguments for Trump’s defence while he was in office, claiming he had “immunity” regarding accusations of election subversion. Special councel, Jack Smith, says that “A bedrock principle of our constitutional order is that no person is above the law – including the president.”
“Well,” said one reporter to another as they left the supreme court chamber, sometime after noon on Thursday. “Looks like we’re getting a king.”
The implications that the SCOTUS would approve of the statements above are that the president could kill someone he deemed corrupt, putting aside the judiciary, or rather, the president becomes the judicial arm of the nation in competition with the actual judicial branch. Let’s just throw out the judiciary altogether and let the president decide on who is innocent and who is guilty. Exaggerated, yes, but you get my point.
If the court decides that this argument is well-founded, a new king will be incoronated, and well, the U.S. president would be at par with Putin in the Kremlin.
Washington Post main points on the SCOTUS oral arguments:
The judges' remarks focused more on the future than the past as it contemplated the ruling ahead. The historic stakes of the case and the potential for precedent that will stand the test of time, for conservative justices, seemed a way to set aside the facts of the Trump indictment and the abuse of power it alleges and focus instead on the implication of a court ruling on cases that have yet to be charged — but theoretically could be.
The justices appeared likely to reject Trump’s absolute immunity claim, but several justices did suggest the case may have to be sent back for more legal wrangling before it could go to trial. Such a ruling would be a victory for Trump as it would almost certainly delay the trial until after the election.
ISPI: The comparative costs of of container transport via the Red Sea or the Pacific: Shanghai-Genoa route or Shanghai-Los Angeles route. The costs of Houthi attacks.
Transporting a container from Shanghai to Genoa now costs more than 2.5 times more than a few months ago.
The Houthis continue to threaten the world's commercial shipping, so much so that even last week the traffic of container ships, bulk carriers, tankers and LNG carriers to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was down by almost 70% compared to November.
China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, has warned the US that the recent improvements in the two countries’ relations were being jeopardised by “disruptions” that could take them back to a “downward spiral” leading to rivalry, confrontation and even conflict. Blinken stressed the duty of both nations to manage responsibly what he called their “most consequential relationship”.
The US is now threatening sanctions against Chinese companies for supplying the Russian defence industry, and is considering tariffs in the face of what Washington says is the over-capacity of Chinese manufacturing. The Biden administration has also tightened export controls on advanced computer chips.
While Blinken was on the way to China, Congress passed legislation that would ban the social media platform TikTok within a year in the US – if its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, does not sell its stake – as well as provide billions of dollars in aid for the Indo-Pacific that would largely benefit Taiwan.
“China’s legitimate development rights have been unreasonably suppressed and our core interests are facing challenges,” Wang said. “Should China and the United States keep to the right direction of moving forward with stability or return to a downward spiral?
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez last evening announced he may resign from government, citing right-wing attacks on his family. Sánchez’s bombshell announcement came hours after a judge in Madrid launched a preliminary investigation into the PM’s wife, Begoña Gómez, over accusations that she had misused her government connections for her private business interests.
“I need time to reflect,” Sánchez wrote in a four-page letter posted on his X account. “I urgently need to answer a question that I keep asking myself: Is it worth it for me to remain [in office] in spite of the right and far-right’s mudslinging?”