Apr 28: E-Stories
Day 429: Mykolaiv StPete NATO BlackSea BEL Sukhoi Trotsenko PACE UN TUR G7 Bitik Lula Italy RussiaSpies Res332 Zelensky-Xi A&Ps ISW Mohov Maldeikis Boccia KyivIndieSeries Brexit Lautman PuglieseM
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Please read Kenneth R. Rosen’s article to be republished on EuroFile on April 30, 2023.
Stories we’re following…
Update: 7 killed, 33 wounded in Russian attack on Mykolaiv Oblast. Russian forces attacked multiple locations in Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv Oblast in the early hours on April 27. At least 23 people were injured and one person was killed in the attack, according to Mykolaiv Oblast Governor Vitaly Kim.
Zelensky posted a video and comment about the attack:
The country-invader never ceases to prove that the main goal of this war is terror and the destruction of Ukrainians and everything Ukrainian.
At night, Russia shelled Mykolaiv with four Kalibr missiles launched from the Black Sea. High-precision weapons were aimed at private houses, a historic building and a high-rise building.
An explosion occurred in the suburbs of St Petersburg, Russia, Pavlovska, on the territory of an abandoned thermal power plant on the evening of 26 April, creating a six-metre-wide crater, as reported by Fontanka. The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation confirmed the explosion of an "unidentified device" and opened a criminal case on the illegal acquisition and storage of explosives. Explosions were also reported in Crimea and Rostov-on-Don late Wednesday night.
Ukraine in possession of almost all NATO-promised vehicles. NATO military commander General Christopher Cavoli said on April 26 that nearly all the combat vehicles promised to Ukraine by NATO allies have been delivered. NATO allies and partners have provided more than 98% of the combat vehicles promised to Ukraine. This means more than 1,550 armoured vehicles, 230 tanks and other equipment, including large quantities of ammunition," Stoltenberg said.
ISW: Upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive continues to cause ‘anxiety’ in Russia. Comments made by Russian officials, including Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, highlight a “pervasive anxiety” over a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest report on April 26.
Reuters has examined the satellite imagery of Russia’s “vast network of fortifications, sweeping down from western Russia through eastern Ukraine and on to Crimea” and built in readiness for Ukraine’s expected counteroffensive. It has concluded that Russia is most heavily defended in the southern Zaporizhzhia region and the gateway to the Crimean Peninsula.
Russia initiates large-scale resettlement to Ukraine's occupied territories. Russia has initiated large-scale resettlement of its Russians and the country's minorities to Ukraine's occupied territories while continuing to forcibly deport local populations, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported on April 26.
In recent months, Russian troops have withdrawn their military equipment, which was located near the village of Medvedivka, Dzhankoi District, in the north of temporarily occupied Crimea, and dug trenches there. Journalists analysed satellite images and came to the conclusion that the armoured vehicles and artillery that were in this area in October 2022 and January 2023 are no longer present in the image taken on 25 April. While they’ve relocated their military equipment, they are working on equipping shelters in temporarily occupied Crimea in case of "[air raid] threats", as reported by the National Resistance Center.
Russia's flotilla in the Black Sea consists of 14 vessels, but the number of missile carriers has been reduced, as reported by Operational Command Pivden (South), to replenish their supplies after several days of duty.
Fears are growing in Ukraine that Moscow is pushing its close ally Belarus to take direct part in fighting, as Belarusian men are called to attend military training, AP reports. “Russian troops are already in Belarus, and I see the country gradually being turned into a military barracks,” Ruslan, an engineer who was recently summoned for military training in the Belarus capital of Minsk, told AP.
More than 200 freshly dug graves bearing the Wagner insignia have been located at a cemetery in Russia’s third-largest city of Novosibirsk, the Siberia-based news site Tayga.info reported Tuesday. Tayga.info said many of the names displayed on the graves have not been previously seen in official lists of Russia’s war dead. Some of the names on tombstones in Novosibirsk match those of convicted felons with long jail terms, according to Tayga.info.
Russian State Duma Defense Committee head proposes enlisting civilian volunteers to defend state borders. Andrey Kartapolov, the head of the Russian State Duma’s Defense Committee, said Wednesday, “[u]nfortunately, it’s not possible for the perimeter of our entire country to be guarded by USSR border troops, as was done in the Soviet Union,” Kartapolov told the news site Ura.ru. “[...] But involving the local population on a volunteer basis is, in my view, fully feasible.”
The fire in Moscow was on Kutuzovsky Street, near the financial district.
Putin signed a decree Tuesday authorizing temporary control over foreign companies’ Russia-based assets. Putin’s decree lists the Russian divisions of the German energy giant Uniper and Finland’s Fortum whose shares had already been taken over by Moscow.
Russia’s oil export revenues fell by nearly a third between January and March this year compared to the last quarter of 2022, the Financial Times reported Wednesday, citing a recent study by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE). Russia’s total revenue from the sale of crude oil and refined oil products in the first three months of 2023 amounted to about $38.8 billion — a $15.7 billion drop compared to the period between October and December last year, according to FT.
U.S. intelligence holds that Russia will be able to fund the war in Ukraine for at least another year, even under the heavy and increasing weight of unprecedented sanctions, according to leaked U.S. military documents.
“Moscow is relying on increased corporate taxes, its sovereign wealth fund, increased imports and businesses adaptability to help mitigate economic pressures,” reads part of the assessment, which is labeled top secret, the highest level of classification. — Adam Taylor
The Guardian published the images shared by the German air force of the Russian aircraft intercepted over the Baltic Sea. Two Sukhoi Su-27 fighter aircraft and one Ilyushin Il-20 aircraft were identified by German and British forces, the German air force has said, adding several images of the aircraft mid-flight on Twitter.
Russia’s envoy to the UN in Geneva said no real progress had been achieved in resolving issues raised by Moscow over the Black Sea grain deal, which is due to expire next month.
Putin spoke to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lon Thursday to mark the inauguration of Turkey’s first nuclear power reactor, built by Russia. The Akkuyu nuclear power plant in Turkey’s southern Mersin province has been built by Russia’s state nuclear energy company Rosatom. Erdoğan discussed the grain deal in with Putin.
A hub to repair Leopard 2 tanks that Ukraine is receiving from European allies will start operating in May. The latest development in a long-running theme about tank supplies was confirmed by Poland’s deputy prime minister and defence minister Mariusz Błaszczak at a joint press conference with Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki according to Ukrainian news website Ukrinform.
The Committee of the EU Parliament approved the extension for another year of the abolition of customs duties for Ukraine, as per European Pravda.
G7 countries are pushing to agree to ban sales of Russian diamonds when the group’s leaders meet for a summit next month. Preparations are well on track to announce more details at the summit in Japan starting on May 19, a European government official involved in the negotiations. This comes amid growing hopes that new technology will enable authorities to track the gems around the world.
The parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has voted that the forced detention and deportation of children from Russian occupied territories of Ukraine is “genocide”, at a session on Thursday. A resolution on “deportations and forcible transfers of Ukrainian children and other civilians to Russian Federation or to Ukrainian territories temporarily occupied: create conditions for their safe return, stop these crimes and punish the perpetrators” passed with 87 votes in favour, meaning an overwhelming majority. One representative voted against and another abstained.
Russian Ambassador to Poland Sergey Andreev told RIA Novosti that the Polish authorities had seized money from the accounts of the Russian diplomatic mission and trade office, as reported in European Pravda.
"We have received a message from the prosecutor's office that funds from the accounts of the embassy and trade mission in Santander Bank have been transferred to the accounts of the prosecutor's office," the ambassador said.
The Czech government has made the head of the Russian Orthodox Church the first person on its national sanctions list due to his support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said on April 26. Patriarch Kirill, 76, was listed by his civil name, Vladimir Mikhailovich Gundyayev, on the sanctions roster, which is posted on the Foreign Ministry's website. The sanctions mean he is barred from entry into the Czech Republic and banned from any financial transactions with Czechs.
Russian, Belarusian, Chinese intelligence try to recruit Lithuanian citizens. The annual report of Lithuania's State Security Department revealed that Russian, Belarusian, and Chinese intelligence agencies tried to recruit Lithuanian citizens, LRT wrote on April 26. According to the report, "not a single attempt" was successful. Additionally, five Russian intelligence officers "working under diplomatic cover" were expelled from the country, LRT wrote.
CDS Daily Brief: The US House of Representatives will consider Ukraine Victory Resolution – H.Res.332 in the House, S.Res.172 in the Senate: restoring its internationally recognised 1991 borders, NATO membership, Ukraine’s reconstruction, Russian reparations, and bringing Russian leadership to justice.
Italy has said it aims to play a major role in the reconstruction of Ukraine and urged EU bodies to back the rebuilding of a country battered by over a year of war with Russia. Prime minister Giorgia Meloni and president Sergio Mattarella met with Ukrainian prime minister Denys Shymhal on Wednesday. Foreign minister Antonio Tajani said Italy would help Kyiv join the EU and insisted Russia should share the burden of the reconstruction. “Any resolution of the conflict will have to ensure that Russia pays for the damage it has caused,” he said.
Ukrainian PM Denys Shmyhal has stated that Ukraine and Italy are considering joint production of air defence systems to protect infrastructure from Russian drone attacks, during the visit to the Rheinmetall Italia S.p.A. technology group in Italy, reported by European Pravda.
A Ukrainian reporter, Bogdan Bitik, working as a fixer for Italy’s daily newspaper Repubblica has been shot dead by snipers in Kherson, while his Italian colleague, Corrado Zunino was wounded, the newspaper said Wednesday.
Lula: 'there is no use in saying who is right or wrong over Ukraine'. Lula criticised the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Wednesday, but said there was “no use now in saying who is right” in the conflict.
“No one can doubt that Brazilians condemn Russia’s territorial violation of Ukraine. The mistake happened and the war started,” he said during an official visit to Spain.
“No one in the world is talking about peace except for me, it is like being alone screaming in the desert.”
Spanish King Felipe VI told Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva during his visit to Spain that lasting peace for Ukraine "must be based on respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity," El Mundo reported on April 26.
Matteo Pugliese: “Investigation into French soldiers who sympathize with Putin's Russia. The same could be done for some Italian soldiers…” Read here.
Dozens of Russian diplomats in Northern Europe may be undercover spies. Journalists from news agencies in several Northern European countries are sounding the alarm. Article by the Finnish news outlet Yle, as reported by European Pravda. The project also involved Norwegian NRK, Swedish SVT, and Danish DR news agencies in cooperation with the Dossier Centre (an organisation engaged in tracking the criminal activity of various people associated with the Kremlin – ed.) founded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, an exiled Russian businessman and opposition activist.
PoliticoEU: Foreign interference and espionage have increased to levels not seen in decades, Belgium’s General Intelligence and Security Service warned in a report for 2022, the first time it had published such an analysis.
“At the time of writing, we observe that espionage and foreign interference activities have reached levels that had not been seen since the Cold War,” the service said. “The feeling of latent instability and the impression of an irreversible Belgian societal degradation provide ideal conditions for ill-intentioned people to expand their playground and exploit this situation.”
NYT: Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, BfV, on Wednesday classified the youth wing of a prominent far right nationalist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), as an extremist group that threatens the constitution, dealing another blow to an organization that has come under increasing scrutiny over concerns of radicalization. The decision comes just a year after intelligence officials decided to put the entire party, called Alternative for Germany, under surveillance. [continue reading]
The Pentagon Leaker: In court papers filed late Wednesday, DoJ lawyers said releasing 21-year-old Jack Teixeira from jail while he awaits trial would be a grave threat to US national security. Investigators are still trying to determine whether he kept any physical or digital copies of classified information, including files that haven’t already surfaced publicly, they wrote.
Ukraine is working with the US FBI and American companies to collect evidence of war crimes by Russians, such as geolocation and cellphone information, Reuters reports, citing senior officials.
Read the Yahoo News article here.
Americans and other foreign nationals have been struggling to escape the fighting in Sudan, cramming into crowded port terminals, squeezing onto filthy buses and begging strangers for a ride to an airport in a desperate bid to reach safety. 16,000 US nationals are still in Sudan, while Britain, France and Germany have sent airplanes to Sudan to help evacuate their citizens, and other countries, such as India, have organized convoys to Port Sudan on the Red Sea.
In recent months across Iran, about 300 suspected gas attacks have hit more than 100 girls schools, according to Amnesty International. The attacks began in November, and appear to have picked up again over the past couple of weeks as schools reopened, sparking widespread panic and confusion. “The parents are really scared, and a lot of them won’t send their kids to school anymore,” one teacher told The Post in a telephone interview.
Read the Washington Post article here.
Zelensky talks with Xi
President Zelensky held a “long and meaningful” phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Wednesday.
“I had a long and meaningful phone call with...President Xi Jinping,” he wrote on Twitter. I believe that this call, as well as the appointment of Ukraine’s ambassador to China, will give a powerful impetus to the development of our bilateral relations.”
President Xi said that “talks and negotiation” were the “only way out” of the war, CCTV reported according to Agence France-Presse. He reassured Zelensky that China would not add “fuel to the fire” of the war in Ukraine and insisted the time was ripe to “resolve the crisis politically.”
China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying after Xi’s phone call with Zelensky: the most interesting statement is China claiming “as a responsible major country, China would not sit idly by, nor would it add oil to the fire, still less exploit the situation for self gains”.
“On the Ukraine crisis, China always stands on the side of peace. Its core stance is to facilitate talks for peace.
“China did not create the Ukraine crisis, nor is it a party to the crisis. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a responsible major country, China would not sit idly by, nor would it add oil to the fire, still less exploit the situation for self gains.
“Everything China does is aboveboard. Dialogue and negotiation are the only viable way forward.
“With rational thinking and voices now on the rise, it is important to seize the opportunity and build up favorable conditions for the political settlement of the crisis.
The American Reaction: John Kirby, White House security spokesman, told reporters that the US has welcomed the phone call between Zelensky and Xi:
“Now, whether that’s going to lead to some sort of meaningful peace movement or plan or proposal, I just don’t think we know that right now. We have long said we want this war to end,” he said, adding that it could end “immediately” if Russia would pull its troops out of Ukraine.
“If there’s going to be a negotiated peace, it’s got to (be) when president Zelensky is ready for it … where he can do it from a position of strength. We certainly would welcome any effort to arrive at a just peace, as long as that peace could be just, could be sustainable, and could be credible.”
“And in our view, it’s not going to be sustainable or credible unless the Ukrainians and president Zelensky personally is invested in it and supportive of it.”
Brexit red tape to send UK food prices soaring even higher
Britain’s food inflation is already at a 45-year high and businesses worry new red tape will make matters worse.
By Stephan Boccia, Politico, April 24, 2023
A new system of border checks on goods arriving from Europe is expected to force rocketing U.K. food prices even higher as businesses grapple with hundreds of millions of pounds in extra fees.
British business groups last week got sight of the U.K. government’s long-awaited post-Brexit border plans, via a series of consultations. One person in attendance said the proposals will “substantially increase food costs” for consumers from January.
That could spell trouble in a country which imports nearly 30 percent of all its food from the EU, according to 2020 figures from the British Retail Consortium, and where the annual rate of food and drink inflation just hit 19.2 percent — its highest level in 45 years.
Government officials told business reps at one consultation that firms will be hit with £400 million in extra costs as a result of long-deferred new checks at the U.K. border for goods entering from the EU.
Programming note…
The Kyiv Independent Series “True History” episode 2 is out: “Russia’s centuries-long quest to conquer Ukraine”