Apr 29: E-Stories
InUkraine SitRep BehindLines Russia-China Europe Canada Zabrisky NK Rosenberg HungaryPanyi Spain Gold AfDTikTok ISW Zongyuan Wadephul
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
Last night, Russia launched 100 drones and decoys at Ukraine. Mobile fire groups shot down 37 Shaheds and neutralized 47 decoy drones without serious damage. The attack targeted Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipro, and Kyiv regions.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast's eastern villages evacuating families as Russian troops close in. The evacuation order, issued by Governor Serhii Lysak on April 25, concerns the villages of Kolona Mezhova, Novopigorodne, Raipole, and Sukhareva Balka in the Mezhova community.
Zarina Zabrisky reporting from Kherson: In this video, Andriy, a volunteer I know, is hunted by a drone and injured. Soon after, he has to hide in a water hatch from artillery.
Zelensky slams Putin's 3-day truce proposal as 'manipulation,' reiterates calls for 30-day unconditional ceasefire. "We value human lives, not parades. That’s why we believe — and the world believes — that there is no reason to wait until May 8," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
Drones reportedly strike Russian plant producing parts for missiles, radars. "Unidentified" drones targeted the Kremniy-El plant, a major facility specializing in microelectronics for Russia’s military-industrial complex, said Andrii Kovalenko, an official at Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council.
Yet another delusion from Russia: the Kremlin is reportedly discussing a plan to "take Odesa through a referendum." Putin's aide Patrushev claims the city was founded by Catherine the Great and “belongs” to Russia.
Yanukovich trial: Putin's personal bodyguard, ex-Russian army commander helped Yanukovych flee Ukraine in 2014, prosecutor says. On April 28, the Prosecutor General's Office announced that Viktor Yanukovych was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison for inciting desertion and organizing illegal border crossings.
Spain's power grid has made significant progress incorporating renewable energy sources, but the combination of this energy mix with recent outage data suggests the system faces stability challenges due to its dependence on intermittent power generation.
Combat Situation
Units of the 28th Mechanized Brigade and supporting units crushed a combined Russian assault near Toretsk. Destroying lots of Russian equipment including quad bikes, and assault personnel.
Ukrainian drones struck a chemical explosives plant in Dzerzhinsk, Russia overnight — a site that has been targeted multiple times already.
A major fire is raging at an oil depot in Novorossiysk. Before the blaze, Russian channels reported a missile threat, mentioning a "long-range Neptune." Locals also reported hearing three explosions.
Behind the Lines
From the Atlantic interview with Trump: "Not necessarily on Zelensky’s side, but on Ukraine’s side, yes... It doesn’t have to be weapons. It can be weapons with sanctions, with banking, many other forms of support."
Russia's military building up at Finland's border over potential NATO clash, WSJ reports. These efforts include expanding military bases near the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, around 160 kilometers (100 miles) east of Finland, the planned site for a new headquarters that could potentially command tens of thousands of troops, the Wall Street Journal wrote.
Paris Match: Pressure on Russia will intensify over the next 8–10 days as part of efforts to achieve peace, says French President Macron. The next two weeks will be crucial for attempts to secure a ceasefire.
Over 95% of drones used at front line made in Ukraine, defense ministry says. "We have made a breakthrough in the unmanned systems sector," Deputy Defense Minister Valerii Churkin said.
The U.S. is pressuring Greece to hand over its Patriot air defense systems — previously stationed in Saudi Arabia — to Ukraine, Kathimerini reports.
ABC News: Transfer of Abrams tanks from Australia to Ukraine stalled due to US resistance, media reports. The U.S. has not granted the necessary formal permission to allow the transfer of Australia's retired tanks to another country, Australian defense officials told the ABC.
The author of the legendary phrase about the Russian warship made the first symbolic kick ahead of the match between Shakhtar and Dynamo. Marine Roman Hrybov defended Snake Island with his comrades during the first days of the full-scale invasion. It was he who said the words that united millions of Ukrainians and became a symbol of resistance: "Russian warship, go f@ck yourself."
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Russian state media releases alleged footage of North Korean troops in Russia for the first time. The Russian state news agency TASS published a video on April 28 that purports to show North Korean troops who fought alongside Russian forces in Kursk Oblast training in Russia.
Steve Rosenberg for the BBC: It doesn’t sound like Russia’s ready to end the war. One Russian paper today: “A ceasefire doesn’t mean we abandon our objectives anytime soon…it’s possible N.Korean soldiers will play a part in routing Ukraine's army.” Plus, Lavrov’s (long) list of conditions.
North Korean TV is already talking about the "liberation" of Russia’s Kursk region from "neo-Nazis." Meanwhile, Russian media report that North Korea may deploy its troops to occupied Ukrainian territories to fight against Ukrainian forces. Another (unanswered) escalation?
Zongyuan Zoe Liu, How China Armed Itself for the Trade War
Xi’s political career has been distinguished by two throughlines: resisting foreign coercion and mastering domestic power struggles. His instincts were forged during the Cultural Revolution, in the 1960s and 1970s, when his family fell from grace and he was sent to toil in rural Shaanxi. Xi’s core political message—captured in the concept of chi-ku, or “eating bitterness”—calls on Chinese citizens, especially youth, to endure hardship in service of national rejuvenation. His invocation of the CCP’s historic mission to overcome China’s “hundred years of humiliation” is not mere rhetorical flourish. It is the scaffolding of his legitimacy. (continue reading)
Trump Tariff War: the direct effects of which are layoffs at ports and affiliated personnel.
In the EU…
Spanish grid operator just offered the first (but tentative) blackout timeline:
Ukraine's allies will 'increase pressure on Russia' in coming days, Macron says. "In the next eight to ten days, we will increase pressure on Russia. I remain cautious (of a ceasefire) because part of the equation depends on Moscow," French President Emmanuel Macron said.
Meloni: "Italy stands with Ukraine in its fight for freedom. We support Trump's efforts and Zelensky's openness to an unconditional ceasefire, showing Ukraine's desire for peace. But Putin’s 3-day ceasefire is insufficient. Real peace needs solid security guarantees, inspired by Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, even outside NATO."
Germany's incoming diplomacy chief pledges continued support for Ukraine.
"I think it must be clear for everybody... especially for (Russian President) Vladimir Putin, that we will stand with Ukraine. We will support Ukraine and... offer Ukraine the opportunity to be on level with Russia," German Foreign Minister-designate Johann Wadephul said.
Mo: While Merz’s commitment to Ukraine is without doubt, Wadephul’s is not. He’s had a long history of friendly relations with Russia. Let’s see how he moves.
Britain and the EU are set to sign a formal declaration committing to “free and open trade” in defiance of Donald Trump’s tariff agenda. A leaked draft seen by POLITICO promises a “new strategic partnership” between London and Brussels.
Hungary is leaving the ICC. Péter Szijjártó: Parliament voted to quit the "politicized" International Criminal Court, claiming it lost impartiality and trust.
The EU may move forward with Moldova’s accession separately from Ukraine, as Hungary continues to block Ukraine’s path to membership, says Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos
The EU Court has ordered Malta to end its “golden passport” scheme, ruling it violates EU law by offering citizenship—and thus EU access—in exchange for investment.
Speaking of gold: have you ever wondered which countries are the largest gold producers? Mali, Ghana, and South Africa catch the eye.
In other news…
Canada elects Carney: In a stunning turn-around Mark Carney, chef of the Liberal Party of Canada, has won the national election. The votes are still being tallied but it looks like a minority government at the time of this writing: LPC 168 seats (49%), CPC 144 (42%), BQ 23, NDP 7. Carney would have to get 172 seats to form a majority government, and at the time of this writing, the major news outlets in Canada are declaring a minority government for Carney and the Liberals.
Incredibly, Canada's Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre is now projected to lose his seat in Carleton, Ontario. Should he lose his seat, a Conservative member of parliament will resign, and a by-election will be called in a safe constituency. Jagmeet Singh is stepping down as the leader of the left-leaning New Democratic Party after his party saw a decline in its seat count. The NDP has now lost party status.
What tipped it in Carney’s direction? Two factors in my view: 1. He was a more credible candidate than Poilievre due to his extensive past experience as governor of the Bank of Canada and England; 2. The Trump admin’s application of tariffs, and the continuous reference to Canada as the ‘51st State’ were perceived by Canadians as real threats to their sovereignty and economy as well as a betrayal. Canadians consider themselves to be America’s closest ally.
Poilievre used his platform as head of the opposition from 2018 to mirror Trump and his politics, including the MAGA cap in blue, which his MPs donned during the COVID pandemic. He supported the Truckers’ Convoy, which paralysed Ottawa and Toronto, paid for by American malign actors. Yet, he managed to gather 28% of the total eligible vote, which goes to show how effective Trump’s tactics actually are in influencing potential voters.
What is most disturbing is that the terrain is being prepared for successionist designs in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Pundits have said that Carney will have to listen to the ‘needs of the West’.
Scabolz Panyi, How the Far Right and the Far Left Went Viral on German TikTok
Research shows that almost 40% of Germans aged 14-29 use it daily, making it the third most popular network after Instagram and Facebook. Two parties achieved remarkable success in recent elections with this demographic: the established far-right AfD (21%) and the left-wing Die Linke (25%), both of which are among the most visible political entities on TikTok.
The German AfD (Alternative for Germany) and its leader, Alice Weidel, have long been among the most successful accounts on TikTok. Weidel has almost a million followers, while the party’s Bundestag account has over half a million. As analysis by Die Zeit journalists revealed, the AfD’s campaign primarily focused on migration and fear. Examining more than 600 clips referencing AfD on TikTok, the journalists discovered that much of the campaign centered around Alice Weidel, who personally appeared in nearly half of the videos studied. Migration was the main theme (featured in one in four videos), frequently presented in association with crime and insecurity. The videos also attacked the Greens and Minister Robert Habeck, as well as the CDU and its candidate, Friedrich Merz.
The Die Zeit journalists noted that AfD’s strategy relies on quantity: the party floods the platform with simple videos containing populist messages in the hopes that some will go viral. This is confirmed by research from Belltower, the Amadeu Antonio Foundation, and the Else-Frenkel-Brunswik-Institut from mid-January 2025, which found that the AfD and its supporters could produce up to 2,000 original posts daily.
Short and useful news.