Apr 3: E-Stories
RUattacks Sumy Kharkiv Dnipro CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies NATO A&P Avdeeva Buziashvili CDS ISW Zelensky TASS Davis Seligman Braw 60Minutes InsiderEng Grueskin TimesRadBreedlove
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Our chat with Eto Buziashvili will be available on your preferred podcast platform on Thursday. In the meantime…
Stories we’re following…
Russia attacks 11 communities in Sumy Oblast. Russian forces attacked the Sumy Oblast border 39 times on March 31, targeting 11 communities in the area, the regional military administration reported.
Russian missile strike injures 5 in Kharkiv Oblast. According to preliminary information, a Russian missile strike injured five in Kharkiv Oblast on March 31, local authorities reported.
It is reported that in Dnipro as a result of a Russian missile attack, 13 people were injured of which 5 were teenagers. An educational centre was hit.
Authorities: Russia uses 5 Zircon hypersonic missiles against Kyiv in 2024. Russia has launched against Kyiv five 3M22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missile within the last three months, Kyiv City Military Administration reported on April 1.
"Today in Kharkiv, almost all of the critical energy infrastructure has been destroyed, and private infrastructure has also been destroyed. More than 150.000 Kharkiv residents are left homeless," Mayor Terekhov said.
Maria Avdeeva: Comparing Russian attacks on power stations to Ukrainian strikes on oil depots is like equating aggressor with victim. Key difference: while one is a war crime, the other is Ukraine's right to self-defense. Witness the aftermath of the latest attack on a Ukrainian power station.
USAID provides emergency equipment, over 100 generators to Ukraine. The U.S. has donated emergency equipment, vehicles, and over 100 generators to multiple regions of Ukraine, through USAID.
Combat Situation Update
A Russian flag hoisted over the northern part of Pervomaiske, west of Avdiivka. Given the recent advances of Russians inside and near the settlement, it now looks like the managed to occupy most of it.
CDS Report: Possible operation situation developments:
The likely operational-strategic objectives of the Russian troop grouping in the theater of military operations may include the seizure of the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts within their administrative borders.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces will make efforts to stabilize the front line and ensure an operational pause for 3-4 months to rearm and replenish personnel, aiming for a minimum force strength of 150-200 thousand servicemen.
The enemy command will endeavor to cut off the Nevske-Torske road along the left bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River from north to south in the area of Terny and will attempt to eliminate the southern part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River.
ISW: Russia may focus its potential offensive only in one operational direction. Russia may focus its potential late spring or summer offensive against Ukraine on the western part of Donetsk Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in their April 1 report.
Incredible: 1200 km from the border with Ukraine: drones attacked enterprises in Yelabuga and Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan. A drone hit the special economic zone "Alabuga", where Shahed drones are reportedly assembled. Ukraine uses long range drones with a basic form of artificial intelligence to help them navigate and avoid being jammed to strike Russia's energy sector.
Alabuga is a facility in a Special Economic Zone where young Russians and non-Russian nationals from Africa were recruited to work there under horrific conditions. They were lured to the facility via snazy videos on YouTube which claimed they were going to be doing high level technological training and production.
A Ukrainian drone strike hit the Elaz-Naftoprodukt Refinery.
Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhail Fedorov said that Ukraine has increased production of long range drones by a tenfold, and confirmed Ukraine now has started manufacturing drones that can fly over 1000km.
In Yekaterinburg in Russia, an Uralmashzavod workshop is reportedly on fire. Uralmashzavod is a heavy machine production business in Russia. According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation, firefighters are working at the scene
UK Defense Ministry: Russia enhances Novorossiysk port's defense against Ukrainian attacks. "Recent imagery analysis has identified four barges positioned at the entrance to the Black Sea Fleet facility of Novorossiysk Sea Port. This is an effort to enhance the defenses of the port against attacks from Ukrainian Uncrewed Surface Vessels," the U.K. Defense Ministry reported.
President Zelensky met with NATO officials today and their meeting was focused on Alliance interoperability and prospects for this year. The participants “raised several fundamental questions about Ukraine-NATO relations. In particular, this concerns the summit in Washington and many other aspects of cooperation. Only with Ukraine in the Alliance can we count on real security in Europe.”
Behind the Lines
Budanov warns Russian railway in occupied Ukraine can pose 'a serious problem.’ Moscow has been constructing a railroad between Russia's port city Rostov-on-Don and occupied Crimea, as an alternative to the Crimean Bridge, running via key occupied and strategic ares, such as Donetsk and Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast and Berdiansk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Putin appoints new Black Sea Fleet commander. Russian leader Vladimir Putin appointed Vice Admiral Sergey Pinchuk as the new commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, state news agency RIA Novosti reported on April 2.
Ukraine considering following suit if US bans TikTok. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill in March 2024 requiring Chinese TikTok's parent company ByteDance to sell its stakes in the company within six months or lose access to U.S. markets.
Resistance Movement: In occupied Starobilsk, it is reported that Russian appointed deputy head of the so called “educational organizations” Valery Chaika was killed after his car was blown up. In 2022, Chaika switched sides to Russia.
Meanwhile in Russia
In Dagestan, three Tajiks who allegedly financed the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall have been detained The FSB informed propagandists that the suspects were allegedly planning "a number of crimes of terrorist orientation". According to the Russian law enforcers, the foreigners allegedly supplied weapons and money to terrorists and also planned to organize a terrorist attack in Kaspiysk.
Since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian authorities have begun integrating ideological and military-themed lessons into school curricula. However, their plans for the upcoming academic year are even more drastic.
Children will receive instruction in combat training and learn how to use grenade launchers and automatic weapons, all as part of the required school curriculum. The Russian government has radically revised the list of social sciences, replacing them with militarized or ideological equivalents. Now, instead of economics and law, students will study “traditional values” and the “Russian world.” The independent outlet Hold explained Russia’s new educational model. Meduza shares an abridged version in English.
WSJ: Russia using cryptocurrency to avoid sanctions. Russian smugglers are using the cryptocurrency tether to circumvent Western sanctions and purchase weapons and drone parts, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on April 1.
Russian propagandist Simonyan charged in absentia for promoting genocide. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced on April 1 that Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan had been charged in absentia with promoting genocide and other crimes against Ukraine. Margarita Simonyan is the head of RT, formerly known as Russia Today, a Russian state-owned media outlet seen as one of the key outlets of Russian propaganda worldwide. The SBU also said that Simonyan publicly called for the murder of Ukrainian children in December 2023, among other comments with genocidal intent.
Julia Davis: Head of RT Margarita Simonyan wholeheartedly endorsed torture. She argued that cutting off the ears of suspects is fine and shouldn't be subject to punishment. Simonyan was also fine with Prigozhin's sledgehammer murders. Putin's regime in a nutshell.
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, visited The Hague on April 2, where he held a number of meetings and participated in a conference on ensuring the punishment of Russia for crimes committed in the war against Ukraine.
Russia demands extradition of Ukrainians, including head of SBU, after ISIS-K attributed terrorist attack. Russia's Foreign Ministry called for the arrest and extradition of the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), citing the March 22 terrorist attack that has been claimed by an Afghanistan-based ISIS group, as well as other attacks.
Iran tipped off Russia about the possibility of a major “terrorist operation” on its soil ahead of the concert hall massacre near Moscow last month. Three sources have told Reuters that Iran – a diplomatic ally – shared intelligence with Russia about the upcoming attack.
Bloomberg: Russia plans reduction in diesel exports due to drone attacks. Russia is planning to reduce diesel exports from its Black and Baltic Sea ports in April to the lowest level in five months due to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and the upcoming maintenance season, Bloomberg reported on April 1.
Reminder: Putin signs decree to conscript 150,000 Russians for military service. By law, conscripts mobilized as part of the routine conscription campaign are not allowed to be sent abroad to fight, including in Ukraine.
Allied Support
Greece is preparing to send a large amount of ammunition to Ukraine via the Czech Republic. The ammunition comes from the stocks of the Greek Army and is characterized as "non-operational and usable" and sold for €150 million.
Japan provides Ukraine with $118 million grant for healthcare, reconstruction. Japan provided Ukraine with $118 million in aid as part of two World Bank projects, Ukraine's Finance Ministry reported on April 1.
Germany will support Ukraine with 180,000 rounds of artillery shells by contributing €576 million to the Czech-led initiative to buy ammunition for Ukraine.
During the NATO foreign ministerial meeting in Brussels Wednesday and Thursday, officials are expected to discuss gradually moving the organization — called the Ukraine Defense Contact Group — into the alliance’s control, according to three European officials and a U.S. official with knowledge of the internal deliberations. The goal would be to finalize the move at the NATO leaders’ summit in Washington in July, one of the officials said.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has proposed establishing a $100 billion fund over five years for Ukraine, subject to approval by the alliance's 32 members. The proposal, part of a package to be discussed at a July gathering in Washington, is still under negotiation, with details such as the inclusion of bilateral aid and accounting mechanisms being debated. The plan may undergo changes before final approval. Neither NATO nor the White House National Security Council provided immediate comments on the matter.
US House Speaker Mike Johnson said that he expects to move a package that includes aid for Ukraine when the House returns from recess and expects the package to include some changes such as a loan to Ukraine and the use of frozen Russian assets (REPO act).
France’s top diplomat has said China must speak clearly to Russia over its war in Ukraine. “We expect China to send very clear messages to Russia,” said Emmanuel Macron’s foreign minister, Stéphane Séjourné, after meeting his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing. “We are convinced that there will be no lasting peace if it is not negotiated with the Ukrainians. “There will be no security for Europeans if there is no peace in accordance with international law.”
The Register of Damages for Ukraine opened formally in The Hague on Tuesday, during a conference bringing together senior ministers and officials from Ukraine, the Netherlands and European institutions.
Ukrainians can enter claims for damages to their property as a result of Russia’s invasion via a new mechanism launched on Tuesday, with officials expecting as many as 10 million requests overall. The initial launch focuses on claims of damage or destruction to residential property from the invasion. Between 300,000 and 600,000 claims are expected in this category.
“This is the first material step that is being made,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters during the conference.
“It’s extremely important that we met here today, not just to discuss how we will be bringing Russia to account but also launching a very specific procedure that every Ukrainian who has suffered can benefit from,” he added.
Bill Grueskin: Trump's Truth Social company posted its new financials to the SEC today. The firm generated just $4.1 million (with an M) revenue for all of 2023, while racking up $58 million in net losses. Market cap is > $6 billion.
The Insider and Speigal: Unraveling Havana Syndrome. New evidence links the GRU's assassination Unit 29155 to mysterious attacks on Americans, at home and abroad.
A yearlong investigation by The Insider, in collaboration with 60 Minutes and Der Spiegel, has uncovered evidence suggesting that unexplained anomalous health incidents, also known as Havana Syndrome, may have their origin in the use of directed energy weapons wielded by members of Russian GRU Unit 29155.
Members of the Kremlin’s infamous military intelligence sabotage squad have been placed at the scene of suspected attacks on overseas U.S. government personnel and their family members, leading victims to question what Washington knows about the origins of Havana Syndrome, and what an appropriate Western response might entail.
Tbilisi
He was tall, certainly taller than Joy’s neighbors and the Georgians she’d come to know in eight months of living in Dighomi, an upscale residential community in Tbilisi. He was young and thin and blonde and well-dressed — as if headed to the theater, or perhaps a wedding.
Minutes earlier on October 7, 2021, Joy, an American nurse and the wife of a U.S. Embassy official, had been taking her laundry out of the dryer when she was completely consumed by an acute ringing sound that reminded her of what someone in the movies experiences after a bomb has gone off. “It just pierced my ears, came in my left side, felt like it came through the window, into my left ear,” Joy remembers. “I immediately felt fullness in my head, and just a piercing headache.” She ran out of the laundry room on the second floor of her house and into the bathroom adjoining the master bedroom. Then she vomited.
Joy and her husband, Hunter, a Justice Department attaché in the U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi, had only arrived in Georgia in Feb. 2020, in the midst of the COVID-19 lockdown. Despite the “all-consuming” noise in her head, Joy called Hunter. (Both their names have been changed for this article to protect their identities.) As the spouse of a U.S. official serving abroad, she’d undergone overseas survival training and remembered that if something didn’t feel right, the first thing you do is “get off the X” – leave the location. Joy checked the house’s security camera at the front door to see if anyone was outside.
A black Mercedes crossover was parked just beyond the gate of her property, directly opposite her laundry room. Joy went outside, and that’s when she saw the tall, thin man. She raised her phone to photograph him.
“It was like he locked eyes with me. He knew what I was doing.” Then he got into the Mercedes, and it drove off. Joy took a picture of the car and its license plate as it pulled away. She says she didn’t see the man again until three years later, when she was shown a photograph of Albert Averyanov, a Russian operative attached to Unit 29155, a notorious assassination and sabotage squad of the GRU, Moscow’s military intelligence service.
Thank you!