Apr 30: E-Stories
InUkraine SitRep BehindLines Russia-China Europe Victoriia Murom Witkoff Zelensky UAchildrenKidnap NeptuneStrike RULabourShort JackMa Georgia MerzGovt ITA/TUR GEC Finland Modi Amazon ScottLucas USEco
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
Russian drone attack injures at least 38 in Kharkiv. "There have been 16 strikes on Kharkiv," Mayor Ihor Terekhov wrote on Telegram. "A high-rise apartment block was hit as well as private residences, a medical facility, and civil infrastructure."
WaPo: She tried to expose Russia’s brutal detention centre
For most of the 757 Ukrainian bodies exchanged for Russian dead on Feb. 14, the Russian authorities had provided their counterparts in Kyiv with names of the deceased, nearly all male soldiers, and the dates they were killed. The final entry on the list handed to prosecutors said only “unidentified male.”
A DNA test confirmed that the body belonged to Viktoriia Roshchyna, a 27-year-old Ukrainian journalist who had disappeared into the Russian prison system after being detained while reporting in the occupied territories in August 2023. Roshchyna, the first Ukrainian journalist to die in Russian captivity, was reported dead in a curt note dated Oct. 2 and addressed by Russian authorities to her father, Volodomyr Roshchyn. But without any details on the cause of death, her father clung to hopes she might still be alive.
When forensic experts opened the bag, they found a female body. Her head was shaved, her neck bruised. There was a tag with her last name attached to one shin, and burn marks on her feet, according to officials familiar with an ongoing investigation by the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office. Medical examiners later found a broken rib and possible traces of electric shock. Some of her organs, including her brain, had been removed, officials said.
Bloomberg reports that peace talks on Ukraine hit a dead end: Putin demands control of Zaporizhzhia and. He rejected a ceasefire along the front line, insists on full control of occupied regions, and wants recognition of all annexed territories, not just occupied Crimea.
U.S. envoy Witkoff says Putin sees a rare chance to “recalibrate” relations with the U.S. for the first time in decades. Talks on Ukraine continue, with both sides inching closer to direct negotiations — but peace, says Secretary of State Marco Rubio, will require tough compromises.
Mo: The real estate developer, Steve Witkoff, has been to Moscow over four times in less than 100 days from our public knowledge. It seems Witkoff and the Trump Administration seeking to maintain open lines for future business arrangements rather than a peace initiative.
Going it alone, without the presence of European authorities, means anything agreed on remains with the authorities involved—in this case, Witkoff, his delegation, and the Trump administration. There is no indication that any of the so-called ‘talks’ with the Kremlin have produced a modicum of path to peace.
President Zelensky’s up-date on talks with the US: “We are also preparing for talks with the United States on new sanctions steps – we are identifying precisely those pressure points of Russia that will most effectively push Moscow toward diplomacy. They must take clear steps to end the war, and we insist that an unconditional and full ceasefire must become the first step. Russia has to make that move. Right now, they’re worried about whether they can hold their military parade – and rightly so. But what they really should be worried about is that this war is still ongoing. They must end the war.”
Deputy prime minister and economy minister Yulia Svyrydenko will be in Washington later to sign the minerals deal with the US, the final draft of which the Ukrainian government “has yet to approve”, the source said.
The agreement provides for a “50/50” joint fund between Kyiv and Washington. Ukrainian officials hope that signing the deal promoted by U.S. President Donald Trump will help to firm up softening American support for Kyiv in the war triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion more than three years ago, Reuters added.
Combat Situation
Russia intensifies offensive operations in 3 regions, pushes toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine's military says. Russian forces have recently intensified offensive operations in three Ukrainian oblasts – Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson – Ukraine's Southern Defense Forces spokesperson, Vladyslav Voloshyn, said on April 29 during Ukraine's state-run telethon.
Reuters: Over 600 DPRK soldiers have died fighting for Russia in Kursk region, Reuters reports. More than 15,000 troops are deployed on Russia's side, with nearly 4,700 injured. In return, Russia provided NK with satellites, drones, and anti-aircraft missiles.
'5 explosions' — Ukrainian drones strike Russian military plant in Murom, source claims. The facility, known locally as the city's "powder factory," produces ignition components for ammunition used by Russia's Armed Forces, Interior Ministry, and Federal Security Service (FSB), according to Russia's National Defense magazine.
Behind the Lines
Follow-up: Yermak warns against easing Russian aviation sanctions, says line between civilian and military use is 'blurred'. The article follows Russia's formal request that the U.S. lift sanctions on its state airline Aeroflot.
ISW: Russia is once again preparing to escalate the forced removal and deportation of Ukrainian children during the upcoming summer months. A Russian official stated that about 53,000 children from occupied Ukraine will “spend their summer holidays” in children’s camps throughout occupied Ukraine and the Russian Federation. The Yale Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) previously identified 43 such facilities, including 41 pre-existing summer camps in occupied Ukraine and Russia.
Such summer camps, whether in occupied Ukraine or in Russia, are re-education camps that aim to indoctrinate Ukrainian children through academic instruction, military training, and military-patriotic education.
International law notably differentiates between “forcible transfer/removal” and “deportation,” with “forcible transfer/removal” referring to occasions when the occupying power (in this case Russia) forcibly moves people within internationally-recognized national boundaries (in this case internationally-recognized Ukrainian territory), whereas “deportation” refers to the forced removal of individuals from outside of national boundaries. Russian occupation authorities are both removing and deporting Ukrainian children to these summer camps, as ISW has previously assessed. Both of these actions can rise to the level of a violation of international law.
ISW: Russia is reportedly expanding its military infrastructure along its border with Finland and stockpiling new tanks, likely in preparation for future aggression against NATO. The Wall Street Journal broke the story on April 27.
"In 2021, before the invasion, Russia made about 40 of its main battle tanks, the T-90M, according to Western intelligence estimates. Now it is producing nearly 300 a year. A senior Finnish military official said almost none are being sent to the front line in Ukraine, but are staying on Russian soil for later use."
Russian authorities are also preparing to update Russia's National Security Strategy, likely to reflect Russian President Vladimir Putin's greater territorial ambitions in Europe and ongoing efforts to justify future aggression against NATO.
NATO: preparations are underway NATO’s Spring iteration of NEPTUNE STRIKE - a complex demonstration of integrated high-end maritime strike capabilities, executed through a series of dynamic activities and demonstrations across the Alliance’s Joint Operational Areas. NEPTUNE STRIKE participants will include multiple aircraft carrier and amphibious strike groups in support of NATO’s deterrence and defence efforts.
EU Integration: Ukraine and Hungary begin consultations to unblock EU accession talks — media. Kyiv and Budapest agreed on regular meetings to resolve Hungary’s objections. Talks will continue until all 11 disputed issues are settled.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Bloomberg: Russia's seaborne oil exports rise for the 2nd week, hitting 3.26M bpd (+1%). Key factor: 18 previously sanctioned tankers return. Weekly exports now at 23.72M barrels, with $1.33B in revenue. Asia dominates demand, while unclear destinations suggest possible rerouting.
Labour shortage: In 2024, the personnel shortage in Russia reached 7.6% of the total number of employed people - this is 2.2 million people out of 27.2 million. This level was an anti-record for the entire period of observations since 2008, the project " If to be precise " reports with reference to Rosstat data. This figure was twice as high as in 2020 (3.7%), and significantly exceeded the level of 2022 (5.4%).
The labour shortage is already affecting the agricultural sector. The Astrakhan Region, Russia's main vegetable producer, has experienced a labor shortage in agriculture due to the introduction of quotas on hiring migrants.
Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) ordered its agents in Europe in early 2025 to urgently collect detailed information on influential critics of the Russian government. According to the Dossier Center , these are people who shape public opinion - politicians, journalists, bloggers, representatives of the cultural environment and other public figures who adhere to an anti-Kremlin position.
May Day preparations: The Chinese military will be parading alongside their Russian counterparts for the May Day parade.
CNN: ‘Don’t come here’: Warning from the frontlines to Chinese nationals thinking of fighting for Russia
A Chinese man fighting for the Russian Army claims his superiors locked him in a dark steel-barred pit, with barely enough room to stand, for 21 days. His offense, he said, was a dispute with his commander over lifesaving protective gear.
Michael, not his real name, said he joined Russia’s fight against Ukraine to “have a taste for military life abroad” but after a brutal year on the frontlines is now convinced enlisting in Vladimir Putin’s army was “a mistake.”
His experience in the pit, where the 29-year-old said he could barely lift his head, killed his desire to fight for Moscow and he wants to send a message home to other Chinese nationals contemplating joining Russia’s fight.
“I have to speak out some truths and warn those irrational Chinese – don’t come over here,” he said.
The Guardian: The Chinese regime enlisted Jack Ma, the billionaire co-founder of Alibaba, in an intimidation campaign to press a businessman to help in the purge of a top official, documents seen by the Guardian suggest.
The businessman, who can be named only as “H” for fear of reprisals against his family still in China, faced a series of threats from the Chinese state, in an attempt to get him to return home from France, where he was living. They included a barrage of phone calls, the arrest of his sister, and the issuing of a red notice, an international alert, through Interpol.
CSIS: Space Threat Assessment 2025
Rather than entirely new developments, the past year mostly witnessed a continuation of the worrisome trends discussed in prior reports, notably widespread jamming and spoofing of GPS signals in and around conflict zones, including near and in Russia and throughout the Middle East. Chinese and Russian satellites in both low Earth orbit and geostationary Earth orbit continue to display more and more advanced maneuvering capabilities, demonstrating operator proficiency and tactics, techniques, and procedures that can be used for space warfighting and alarming U.S. and allied officials. No information publicly surfaced revealing how close Russia might be to launching a nuclear anti-satellite capability, though the United States and its international partners remain concerned that Russia could decide to deploy such a weapon.
Combatting Information Warfare: On April 16, 2025, the U.S. State Department shut down its Global Engagement Center — a unit tasked with countering foreign misinformation, including Russian propaganda. The Agency did need an overhaul in order to face the challenges the new geopolitical context, but Trump shut it down to further his own agenda citing ‘censorship’.
The Kyiv Independent interviewed James Rubin, a former diplomat who led the Global Engagement Center in 2022-2024, about how deeply the Russian propaganda influences U.S. politics and why the center's closure "disarms" the country in the information war.
In the EU…
Europe, Kyiv worry Trump prepares to exit Ukraine peace efforts, FT reports. European and Ukrainian officials are concerned that president Trump is about to use minor progress in peace talks as an excuse to leave the process, the Financial Times (FT) reported on April 28, citing undisclosed sources.
Mo: My sources confirm this information. In the view interview with Keith Kellogg, the special envoy to Ukraine reveals that the Russians are not winning the war, and that negotiations with Ukraine on a peace plan are maturing, but that Russia must step up.
Considering Russia’s tactics and overall strategy, the Russians have no desire to reach a ceasefire any time soon. They used the same tactics during the Cold War, and afterwards, so this is simply theatre.
France calls UN Security Council meeting over Russian attacks on civilians in Ukraine. "At today's Security Council meeting, we urge members to express their strong support for Ukraine's steps toward peace, clearly condemn Russia's escalated terror against civilians, and take a principled stance on the need to put more pressure on Moscow," Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said.
Ukraine’s aid will be strengthened under Merz. Ukraine's MFA Sybiiha spoke with Germany's future foreign minister.
"I informed Johann Wadephul about the battlefield situation and Ukraine's peace efforts. I appreciate his consistent personal stance in support of our shared principles and his confirmation that the next German government will maintain and enhance support for Ukraine," said Ukraine's Foreign Minister.
Swedish police said they have apprehended a suspect after a shooting in which three people were killed in the city of Uppsala on Tuesday, Reuters reported.
Georgia: Georgian officials raid homes of people linked to funding sources supporting pro-EU protesters. The searches were carried out in Tbilisi as part of an investigation launched under the charge of ‘sabotage’, a case that was initiated in March following a request by a pro-government group.
The list of the targeted organisations and individuals included Nanuka’s Foundation and its founder, journalist Nanuka Zhorzholiani; Prosperity Georgia and its representative Lasha Arveladze; Foundation For Each Other 24/7 and its founder Guga Khelaia; Shame Movement and its representative Mariam Bajelidze; and the Tbilisi Human Rights House and a member of its board Aleko Tskitishvili.
German government confirmed today, as the Social Democrats (SPD) members voted on the coalition agreement with the conservative CDU/CSU.
Speaking at the summit of centre-right EPP congress in Valencia yesterday, Merz appeared very confident about the outcome of the vote as he promised “more German leadership than we have seen in the last years.”
In a wide-ranging speech, he promised to “invest a lot of energy into moving Europe forward,” saying that “the challenges we are faced with, surpass our ability to deal with them alone on a national level.”
“This … is … the hour of Europe, or more precisely, the European Union,” he declared.
Italy and Turkey: A preliminary agreement between leading UAV producer & Turkish aerospace company BAYKAR and Italian aerospace company Leonardo was signed in Italy by Baykar Chairman Selçuk Bayraktar and Leonardo CEO Roberto Cingolani.
Disturbing for its implications: Teresa Fallon reports that China to lift sanctions on EU lawmakers to unlock trade deal. Looks like the comprehensive Agreement on Investment CAI might be coming out of the deep freeze. EU willing to leave values on the shelf in dash for economic deal & deeper cooperation with China.
In other news…
AFP: PM Narendra Modi has given India's military "operational freedom" to respond to a deadly attack in Kashmir last week, a senior government source told AFP on Tuesday, after New Delhi blamed it on arch-rival Pakistan.
Bloomberg: US Economy Contracts for First Time Since 2022 on Imports Surge.
Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product decreased an annualized 0.3% in the first quarter, well below average growth of about 3% in the prior two years, according to the government’s initial estimate published Wednesday. Net exports subtracted nearly 5 percentage points from GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed.
Consumer spending — which accounts for two-thirds of GDP — advanced at a 1.8% pace, the weakest since mid-2023. Business outlays for equipment, a bright spot in the report, increased an annualized 22.5%.
Trump will signed an executive order on auto tariffs yesterday as he tries to cushion the impact of his tariffs on US carmakers. The Trump administration wants to provide companies looking to relocate to the US full expensing of factories and equipment purchases and make it retroactive to 20 January, treasury secretary Scott Bessent said.
The White House completely lost it over Amazon announcing that they will put a “tariff price” next to every item they sell, depicting how much of the price of that good is the result of Trump’s tariffs.
Karoline Leavitt says “This is a hostile and political act by Amazon. Why did Amazon do this… It’s not a surprise because Amazon has partnered with a Chinese propaganda arm.”
Layla Mashkoor, Meta’s news blackout in Canada creates a troubling precedent
During Canada’s short-lived thirty-five-day election cycle, candidates took their campaigns to cities, towns, and online platforms to win over voters. One distinguishing feature of Canada’s information ecosystem is the absence of news content on Facebook and Instagram, following Meta’s decision to block it in response to the Canadian Online News Act. This is particularly noteworthy as Facebook was reported to be the platform most used by Canadians.
Exacerbating the issue was Meta’s January 2025 decision to end its fact-checking programs, which played an important role in maintaining protective safeguards against information manipulation—safeguards that are even more necessary in the face of proliferating AI-enabled deceptions.
Canadian Meta users were left to navigate an uncertain landscape, one without adequate protections but rife with potential risks and deliberate harms. This creates a concerning precedent, suggesting that platform resistance may create information vulnerabilities that can be exploited during critical democratic processes.
As the tactics of information manipulation evolve, democratic societies must foster adaptable, evidence-based responses that protect electoral integrity and preserve the principles of open, free discourse. This requires ongoing innovation in both policy and technology to stay ahead of emerging threats while upholding the values of democracy. —
@laylamashkoor is a deputy managing editor at the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab.