Apr 30: Sunday Stories
Day 431: Uman Zelensky UASitRep Bakhmut China-Arctic Sevastopol RUdomestic Reznikov EU SouthKorea A&Ps Funimori UKDef CDS Lévy ISW AnneMarieBrady Pavel Pugliese Davis Sumlenny Eckel Sandu Matviiychuk
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Rescuers continue search for missing children under rubble of building destroyed by Russian missile in Uman. First responders are still searching for missing children thought to be caught under the rubble of an apartment building heavily damaged by a Russian missile early on April 28 in the central city of Uman, according to a CNN team on the scene.
Zelensky: ‘We can stop terror and save people only with weapons.’ “Today, our Air Force managed to shoot down most of the Russian missiles – 21 out of 23. If not for this, the terrorist state would have managed to claim many more lives,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his video address.
Three days of mourning have been announced in Cherkasy Oblast after a Russian missile hit a multi-storey residential building in Uman on the morning of 28 April. 23 people were killed: 22 were pulled out from under the rubble, one more person died in the hospital. Among those killed were six children: three boys (1.5, 16 and 17 years old) and three girls (8, 11 and 14 years old).
Bernard-Henri Lèvy: “It happened shortly after a devastating assault on the central Ukrainian town of Uman, resulting in the deaths of at least 23 civilians, including four children. "Uman is not only a brilliant city of Ukraine. It is the town where Rabbi Nahman of Braslav is buried. And it is, for this, a holy place for Jewish thought. What Putin and Russians just did is a crime, plus a profanation, plus a slap on the face of all Jews around the world.”
Sevastopol Up-date: Ukrainian intelligence, GRU, reports that more than 10 tanks with oil products were destroyed as a result of the explosion.
CDS Daily Brief: Russian military command is increasing its efforts in Bakhmut, aiming to capture the city by May 9th for propaganda effect. They are transferring reserves to the area. The tactics of Russian missile strikes on targets in Ukraine have also changed, with energy infrastructure no longer being the primary focus. Missiles are now launched at different altitudes, with multiple changes in flight trajectory and careful consideration of the terrain relief on the routes to targets to complicate the work of Ukraine's air defense systems.
The enemy forces of the Western Military district have switched to the defense in the Kupyansk direction. There were combat clashes with Ukrainian Defence Forces reconnaissance groups near Novoselivske, Vilshany, and Krokhmalne.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to strike at the enemy rear objects and troop concentrations on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, north of Korsunka, southwest of Rybalske, at the Russian observation post in the village of Kozachi Lagery.
Russian occupying authorities in southern Ukraine said on Saturday that Ukrainian forces were subjecting the city of Novaya Kakhovka to “intense artillery fire” that had cut off electricity. It lies upstream on the Dnipro River from Kherson, the regional capital from which Russia withdrew last November.
Five Russian villages on the border with Ukraine were without power as a result of Ukrainian shelling, the governor of Russia's southwestern Belgorod region that borders Ukraine said Saturday.
CDS Daily Brief: Ukraine has demanded that Russia open humanitarian corridors for residents of temporarily occupied territories who wish to leave for the territory controlled by Ukraine.
Oleksandr Prokudin, Head of Kherson Oblast Military Administration, has said that the authorities have been preparing to evacuate the population from the oblast in case of a massive Russian attack. “I cannot let the people of Kherson suffer. Therefore, I requested that the evacuation routes for civilians in case of a major attack on the oblast be worked out in advance.”
Le Monde: France approves Framatome's involvement in Russia-led construction of nuclear reactors in Hungary. The French government has reportedly cleared ways for Framatome, a state-backed nuclear power operator subsidiary, to participate in a construction project in Hungary led by Russia's state-owned Rosatom.
Russia will lodge an official diplomatic protest over what it says is the illegal seizure by the Polish authorities of its embassy school in Warsaw, Moscow’s ambassador to Poland told Russian state news agencies on Saturday. Sergei Andreyev, the ambassador, said the move was a violation of the Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations, but Poland said it was within its rights to take back the building.
Russia’s Coast Guard cooperation with China is a big step, Arctic security expert says. “Letting China in would be a big step in practical cooperation. It has a security element to it,” says Senior Researcher Andreas Østhagen with the Fridtjof Nansen Institute. China has been very visible in Murmansk this week. On Monday, a groundbreaking memorandum on extensive cooperation in Artic waters was signed with FSB Coast Guard. The Chinese Coast Guard was then invited to observe the long-planned “Arctic Patrol 2023” maritime security exercise. [continue reading]
Anne-Marie Brady, foremost expert on Russo-China Arctic policy, said that, “it is a sign that the Russian government is being forced to make concessions it would not normally want to make, due to its need for China's support in Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine.”
A fuel tank was ablaze in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol in what appeared to be a drone strike, the governor said on Saturday, Mikhail Razvozhayev, the so-called "governor of Sevastopol", reported on Telegram.
National Resistance Center: Russia plans to forcibly relocate children from Russian-occupied Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast. Russia is planning to forcibly relocate children from the Russian-occupied city of Horlivka, located near the city of Donetsk, occupied by Russia since 2014, the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center reported on April 28.
As per RIA Novosti, Putin has signed a law to tighten the penalty for high treason to life imprisonment on Friday. This means that espionage, giving out state-secret information to foreigners, siding with the enemy or providing financial, logistical, advisory or other assistance in activities against Russia may be punishable by life imprisonment. In addition, Putin signed a decree to increase criminal liability for sabotage and terrorism.
Law enforcement authorities raided the homes of a prominent Russian anti-torture NGO’s lawyers in the city of Nizhny Novgorod early Friday. The Committee Against Torture, which changed its name to The Crew Against Torture (CAT) in June 2022, said criminal investigators arrived at the homes of its lawyers at 7:00 a.m. local time. CAT was founded in 2000 by Nizhny Novgorod-based rights activists to monitor cases of torture and press authorities to investigate mistreatment by security forces. The organization also offers legal and medical support to victims of torture.
A UN committee said on Friday it was deeply concerned about human rights violations by Russian forces and private military companies in Ukraine, including enforced disappearances, torture, rape and extrajudicial executions, Reuters reports. In its findings on Russia, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination called on the Russian authorities to investigate allegations of human rights violations committed during the invasion of Ukraine.
The Georgian delegation did not take part in the adoption of the resolution of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), which recognizes the forced transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia as genocide, as it was unable to attend the vote.
Two new advisory bodies will help make Ukraine‘s defence ministry more efficient and transparent, defence minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Friday. The Office for the Support of Changes and the Public Anti-Corruption Council were set up earlier this month following allegations that the ministry bought food for troops at inflated prices, Reuters reports.
Ukraine will receive another US$1.25 billion through the World Bank from the US Agency for International Development (USAID) to fund Ukraine’s healthcare, emergency services and education, Bridget Brink, US Ambassador to Ukraine, on Twitter, as reported by European Pravda. Ukraine has received over 2,900 generators through USAID since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine as well as funds to cover the cost of repair teams, clothing and other humanitarian goods
German minister: Ukrainian soldiers start training on Leopard 1 tanks. Over 100 Ukrainian service personnel have started training on Leopard 1 battle tanks this week, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told Spanish publication La Vanguardia.
From Julia Davis’s Russian Media Monitor
The EU Commission and Poland have reached an agreement on the import ban of five agricultural products from Ukraine. "It is mainly about grain and corn," RMF FM quotes Mateusz Morawiecki, Polish Prime Minister. The EU is set to ban imports of wheat, corn, rapeseed, sunflower and sunflower oil to individual countries. However, the sources of "European Pravda" claim that the negotiations are ongoing and the list of goods may be different in the end.
Zelensky calls for removal of restrictions on Ukrainian food exports. President Volodymyr Zelensky called for the removal of what he termed the "destructive" impact of bans of Ukrainian food products by five EU members during a phone call with European Council President Charles Michel.
According to CDS, Ukraine currently has 12 million tons of grain intended for export. Still, due to export blockades by some European countries and the instability of the "grain corridor," Ukraine may not be able to export this production before the new harvest.
Someone leaving Crimea?
South Korea’s president, Yoon Suk-yeol, has said it is necessary to ensure Russia’s invasion of Ukraine does not succeed and that Seoul is considering its options when it comes to providing lethal aid to Kyiv. Yoon said the Russian invasion was a violation of international law and the rights of Ukrainians.
CDS Daily Brief: Ukraine handed over to the Committee of the Red Cross a list with the names of 19,000 Ukrainian children taken to Russia. Ukraine expects ICRC to directly visit children and that Ukraine is awaiting their visit to Russia and other states. Currently, Ukraine is working independently to return the children deported by Russia, and international partners are showing a willingness to help, but the results are weak, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a joint press conference with the presidents of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, and Slovakia, Zuzana Čaputová, in Kyiv.
Vladimir Saldo, who has governed southern Ukraine’s Kherson region since April 2022 after it fell under Russian control, is reportedly listed as the owner of the UK agriculture commodities firm Grainholding Ltd. Company documents show Saldo, 66, as co-owner of half of Grainholding’s $1.2-million capital, with an unnamed Ukrainian national holding the other half.
Does this company make money? We don’t know,” said Labour party MP Margaret Hodge, criticizing the British corporate oversight system. And have they frozen this asset? We don’t know that either. This system is a mess from start to finish,” Hodge was quoted as saying.
First, a new sanctions regime against those who destabilize our country. This strong stance sends a clear message that the EU stands with Moldova in our fight for peace, stability, and democracy – and against criminals.
Second, an EU civilian mission led by Romania's Cosmin Dinescu to help us build resilience against hybrid threats.
I thank Romania once again for its strong engagement for Moldova's – and Europe's – stability.
Third, the EU has agreed to allocate an additional €40 million from the European Peace Facility to support Moldova's defense capabilities.
This vital investment will help ensure our shared safety in Europe.
Ulrich Speck’s view on China’s objectives & strategy
For Xi, the war in Ukraine is first and foremost an opportunity to advance his geopolitical agenda. His goals:
1) Weaken Russia in order to turn it into a dependent junior partner -- but make sure that Russia is not becoming too weak, as China needs Russia as a partner in its fight against Western dominance / liberal order.
2) Split Europe from the US by playing nice towards Europeans, playing with the existing anti-Americanism in Europe, deepening European dependency on the Chinese market and presenting China as an (almost) like-minded geopolitical partner.
3) Weaken the US by isolating it from Europe; prevent the emergence of a strong West determined to stand in the way of China’s rise to becoming the leading power at least in Eurasia if not globally.
Making peace in Ukraine or defending its sovereignty is nowhere on the list. It’s debatable whether Chinese interests as defined by Xi are helped more by an ongoing and even escalating war in Ukraine or by a ceasefire. A tactical not a strategic question for Beijing.
What’s clear by contrast is that Xi’s broader geopolitical agenda can be advanced if he responds to calls from Europeans to play the peacemaker (or to pretend to play the peacemaker). He takes the opportunity provided to him by some European leaders on a silver platter.
Monique: Full disclosure: I’m a hawk on China and Russia. I believe Xi is pretending to play peace-maker; both he and Putin, and their leadership circles, believe in a ‘multipolar’ world, which means subverting and destroying American power globally. They’ve been working on this goal for years, and their joint protocols and economic and diplomatic outreach to various African and South American countires tells us they are ready to challenge American and European powers. My hope is that European leaders won’t fall for Xi’s new diplomatic ‘stance’.
From Julia Davis’s Russian Media Monitor
Putin’s War on Ukrainian Memory
By Richard Ovenden, The Atlantic, April 23, 2023
Librarians and archivists in Ukraine today are fighting to retain control of the country’s institutional repositories of memory. The bodies of knowledge for which they are responsible are under attack from Russian forces. According to the Ukrainian Library Association, three national and state libraries, including the National Scientific Medical Library of Ukraine, as well as some 25 university libraries, have been severely damaged or destroyed. The most shocking statistics relate to public libraries: 47 have been completely destroyed beyond repair; another 158 are badly damaged and in need of repair; and a further 276 have received less serious damage.
The toll of ruination includes several buildings of the Karazin University Library in Kharkiv, which held more than 3 million volumes, including many early printed books and manuscripts, as well as important Ukrainian archival collections. In March 2022, a missile exploded in the Rare Book Library, destroying or damaging more than 60,000 precious volumes, and leaving the University Library staff with a daunting task to rescue books damaged by fire, water, and shrapnel. The Ukrainian poet Serhiy Zhadan is among those who have pledged funds to help rebuild the library.
The destruction of libraries was inevitable given such frequent and heavy bombardment of Ukrainian towns and cities, but some evidence suggests that Russian forces not only targeted universities, but homed in on their libraries—and deliberately so. The day after the Tarnovsky House and Library for Youth in Chernihiv, northern Ukraine, was hit by Russian ordnance in March last year, the governor, Vyacheslav Chaus, went to inspect the damage and caustically remarked on his Telegram channel, “A stadium and a library. Such strategic objects.” His sarcasm missed the point: The destruction of knowledge and erasure of memory has always been a war aim for those who seek to impose their own version of history on the next generation. [continue reading]
Tucker’s Russian Talking Points
Long-time Kremlin watcher and information warfare expert, Julia Davis, is interviewed in this clip from CNN about Carlson’s parroting of Russian talking points, and how the Russian state-controlled media propaganda shows often featured clips from Carlson’s show on Fox.
Even if Carlson’s next steps are unknown for now, I’m sure he won’t disappear into the night. He may not get a job in legacy media (too much of a liability) but I can’t see him retiring from public view any time soon. He’s become the clarion for extremist views, and a vector for the ‘multipolar’ worldview advanced by Putin and Xi.