Apr 7: E-Stories
Day 408: Bakhmut Zvanika RUSitRep BEL Grechuskin UADrones OilCo NATO Patrushev China Bychkov MiG29 VDL Macron Allies SexToys HUN Georgia SaudiaArabia Taiwan A&P Avdeeva Landsbergis ChinaAmb Pichler
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russia launches multi-weapon attack against 8 oblasts over past 24 hours. Four people were killed and 14 were injured from Russian attacks across eight oblasts over the past 24 hours, the Defense Ministry reported via the Military Media Center on April 5.
Pavlo Kyrylenko, governor of Donetsk, writes that in Bakhumt, “two civilians were killed and two wounded – the damage to a kindergarten, two private houses and three high-rise buildings was added to the total destruction in the city.” He also reported that “There was a massive shelling of Zvanivka in the Lysychansk direction – a school, a cultural centre, a shop and more than 20 private houses were damaged.”
Ukraine gives Russia two options: Leave Crimea peacefully or be ready for battle. Ukraine has not changed its plans for the return of territory occupied by Russia, including Crimea.
“Ukraine will choose the way to bring Crimea back, using political and military means,” Tamila Tasheva, the Ukrainian president’s envoy on Crimea, told POLITICO.
“To minimize Ukrainian military losses, minimize threats to civilians who live in occupied territories, as well as the destruction of civilian infrastructure, Ukraine plans to give Russia a choice on how to leave Crimea. If they don’t agree to leave voluntarily, Ukraine will continue to liberate its land by military means,” Tasheva added. [continue reading]
Kremlin likely struggling to increase number of soldiers. Russia is struggling to attract more military manpower and provide them with sufficient training, unnamed western officials told CNN on April 5.
Military spokesperson denies reports of Russia's ammunition shortage in eastern Ukraine. Russian troops have not experienced ammunition deficits in Ukraine's east despite Wagner Group's statements about the lack of projectiles on the front line, Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for Ukraine's Eastern Mil Command, said on April 5.
Russia plans to redeploy part of its military from Belarus to eastern Ukraine. According to the border service, about 2,000 troops will leave Belarus, which Russia plans to recruit in the future to strengthen its group in the east of Ukraine.
Politico: Russia is trying to rebound from last year’s coordinated mass expulsion of Russian intelligence officers operating under diplomatic guise in Europe. And there’s now growing evidence that Russia’s foreign intelligence service (SVR) and its military intelligence agency (GRU) are aggressively trying to rebuild their human espionage networks — particularly with an eye toward military aid going to Ukraine.
Interfax: Putin signed a decree on the release of Colonel General Nikolai Grechushkin from the post of Deputy Minister of the Russian Federation for Civil Defense, Emergency Situations and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters. Earlier, on March 29, Putin signed a decree on the release of Colonel-General of the Internal Service Alexander Chupriyan from the same post.
Ukraine's 'Drone Army' procures 3,200 drones in first 9 months. Ukraine's "Drone Army" acquired 3,200 drones for the military in the first nine months of the initiative, Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov reported.
Kyiv’s Energy Minister Galushchenko said “it would be fair” for Western oil and gas companies that made bumper profits during the energy price crisis last year to donate some of those profits toward Ukraine’s reconstruction. “They get this money because we are fighting,” Galushchenko said. He raised the idea with EU ministers at last week’s Energy Council. BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Total and Shell made $200 billion in profits in 2022.
NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg officially invited Ukrainian President Zelensky to the NATO summit in Vilnius on Wednesday.
The plan for the EU to jointly buy ammunition for Ukraine is still stalled, after ambassadors who met Wednesday to discuss the issue were unable to make significant progress on whether arms contracts will go exclusively to EU companies or be open to outside manufacturers.
Stoltenberg: China's provision of lethal aid to Russia would be 'historic mistake.’ NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg cautioned China against supplying Russia with lethal weaponry, saying the move would be a "historic mistake with profound implications," Euronews reported on April 5.
The U.S. is sending anti-drone missiles as part of an experimental platform to help Ukraine down the Iranian-built drones that have devastated its energy infrastructure, according to representatives of government contracting company SAIC. On Tuesday, the U.S. announced a large package of military aid to Ukraine focused on air defense, including what it called “10 mobile c-UAS laser-guided rocket systems.”
Ex-head of Antonov company charged with negligence in case of Mriya aircraft destruction. The former director of Antonov State Enterprise, Serhii Bychkov, was charged with official negligence leading to the destruction of the world's largest cargo aircraft AN-225 Mriya, Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported on April 5.
Duda: Poland to provide Ukraine with at least 14 MiG-29 fighter jets. Polish President Andrzej Duda said that his country has already transferred four MiG-29 jet fighters to Ukraine, has prepared to transfer four more, and is preparing six more that “can be transferred quite soon,” bringing the total number pledged to Kyiv to 14.
Poland and Ukraine sign joint memorandum on reconstruction and munitions production. The document was signed during Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky's April 5 visit to Warsaw, where he met with both President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
President Macron and EU Commission chief von der Leyen met Xi Jinping on Thursday, as they seek to convince Beijing to play a more constructive role to help end Russia’s illegal and brutal war against Ukraine. President Macron and EU Comm chief von der Leyen first met with Xi separately and then they had their trilateral meeting and press conference.
Macron said he and Xi had agreed that nuclear weapons should be excluded from the conflict in Ukraine. Macron, at a joint news conference in Bejing, said Europe’s security architecture was not possible as long as Ukraine is occupied. China is ready to work with France to “push hard” for peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, according to a French diplomat source who spoke after the meeting.
Macron met told Xi “I know I can count on you to bring back Russia to reason.” Reuters quotes the French president saying:
The Russian aggression in Ukraine has dealt a blow to stability. I know I can count on you to bring back Russia to reason and everyone back to the negotiating table.
The Chinese representative to the #EU said that China does not support the Russian invasion of Ukraine, does not provide military assistance to Moscow and does not recognize the annexation of Ukrainian territories, including Crimea and Donbas. This was stated in an interview with The New York Times by Fu Cong, China's Permanent Representative to the EU.
According to him, Beijing has not condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine because it "understands" Russia's arguments about a "defensive war against NATO expansion" and believes that "the underlying causes are more complicated" than Western leaders say.
At the same time, Fu Cong said that China does not recognize Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territories, including Crimea and Donbas.
The EU Commission president, von der Leyen, said she has warned Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, that any arms shipments to Russia would “significantly harm” relations with the EU. Von der Leyen, who is in Beijing, said she encouraged Xi to reach out to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. China is willing to enhance strategic mutual trust with the EU, President Xi said.
The EU Comm sending Moldova €50m in financial support. Chișinău received the first €10mln on Wednesday, and will get the rest in May. Moldova, which was granted EU candidate status last June, has been strongly affected by Russia’s war in Ukraine, welcoming hundreds of thousands of refugees while dealing with Kremlin-linked attempts to destabilize its government.
The Bulgarian authorities close their ports to all Russian ships, regardless of the flag under which they sail, according to PortSEurope. The decision comes into force on April 8 and is linked to the EU directive on the implementation of sanctions.
Latvia reinstates mandatory military service. The Latvian parliament has officially passed the National Defence Service Law mandating men between the ages of 18 and 27 to serve in the military, media outlet Delfi reported on April 5.
Czechia to send $30 million worth of military aid to Ukraine. The Czech Republic will provide Ukraine with $30 million worth of military equipment that is currently in storage and “not needed” for the country's defense. All military hardware currently sent to Ukraine can be replaced, Czech defense minister Jana Černochová told media on April 5.
Ukrainian activists say they hacked the online shopping account of a Russian military volunteer who has been buying drones for Moscow’s forces — and splashed the cash on sex toys. The group Kiber Sprotyv (Cyber Resistance) said they targeted the AliExpress account of Mikhail Luchin. “He is a war criminal, volunteer, blogger and now dildo owner,” the hackers said in a statement, publishing screenshots of them using Luchin’s account with AliExpress, a Chinese-run online store. The Ukrainians claimed they bought $25,000 worth of sex toys through Luchin’s account.
A high-level meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden, European Council President Charles Michel and Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen is tentatively scheduled for October, two EU officials told Politico.
The EU Commission and Parliament won’t pay Twitter to get their hundreds of official EU accounts verified under the paid “Twitter Blue” program, according to the institutions’ press services. In the U.S., the White House has previously said it would not opt for the new blue-check program.
Mike Pence will not appeal a federal court ruling ordering him to testify in a special counsel probe into efforts by Donald Trump and his allies to subvert the 2020 election. Pence is poised to recount for the first time under oath his direct conversations with Trump leading up to January 6, 2021, when Trump pressured him unsuccessfully to block the 2020 election’s result and may have been acting corruptly, according to sources who have explained the judge’s ruling.
The U.S. sanctioned 4 Georgian judges, who are the members of so-called clan, for their involvement in corruption. They are the ones (along other actors) who have helped Oligarch Ivanishvili capture state. There are many more of his cronies to sanction for undermining democracy.
Bloomberg: Saudi Arabia is leading efforts to formally bring Syrian President Assad back into the Arab inner circle as early as next month, in what would be a win for Iran and Russia and in defiance of US warnings.
Prospects for a BIA between Brussels and Taiwan recently suffered a significant setback when EU diplomats told Taiwanese officials that an agreement is unnecessary. At an event held at the European Parliament on March 8, 2023, Taiwan’s Vice Foreign Minister Roy Chun Lee stated that a “bilateral investment agreement is top of our agenda, and has been for many years.” The BIA has been rejected by EU officials, who reiterated that there is no economic rationale for such an agreement.
It would be “very hard” to lift Russia’s suspension from UEFA until the war in Ukraine ends, the president of the European football governing body has said. Aleksander Čeferin, at a news conference in Lisbon, said:
My personal opinion is: that, until the war stops, it will be very hard for us to change anything.
China’s model is based on domination, not negotiation. Subscribers to Pax Sinica receive China’s aid without burdensome human rights requirements, but eventually fall into traps that ensure the house always wins. Pax Cynica, no less.
Beijing has decided that now is the time to project its power globally. The so-called peace proposal for Ukraine, mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is just the beginning. We cannot now expect to change China’s course by persuasion.
We should remember that attempts to contain Russia by offering economic partnership failed. Putin was in fact emboldened by our flexibility, not persuaded. Similar tactics would also embolden China. Let's not make the same mistake twice.
The lure of Pax Sinica can be diminished if we strengthen the rules-based order that already exists and ensure that it remains the fairest and most reliable proposition for most of the world’s countries.
Preaching de-risking while marching ahead with business-as-usual is not an option. Surely we have learnt that increasing dependencies on totalitarian states weakens us as we discard the principles that made us strong.
We must get serious. De-risking is a much-needed quick fix but we must also be ready for what might follow. We are woefully unprepared for the possibility that Xi’s trajectory might ultimately leave us no choice but to decouple.
Defending all of Ukraine is absolutely the best way to show any potential allies of China that we will always defend the rules-based order that enables stability and therefore prosperity.
To maintain the rules-based order we will have to consider reshaping international political, trade and financial institutions. Where reshaping is not an option, we must consider creating new structures.
Finally, we must be very clear that there will be severe consequences if China tries to violate the rules-based international order. This cannot be empty talk. We must be well prepared for where all of this might take us.
Creating awareness for international disinformation campaigns on a wide scale, so that everybody understands the basics. Speaking of basics, media literacy and information literacy education cannot be limited to schools.
We need to update our education system to create greater resilience against disinformation, propaganda, and fake news. In some cases, textbooks are even the source of Russian propaganda that needs to be evaluated.
"One of the main problems is the lack of education around certain topics that are widely affected by disinformation. We need to address this issue because people who are not educated in a particular area are more vulnerable to falling for disinformation and propaganda.
This includes topics such as Eastern European affairs, authoritarian regimes, as well as how the European Union and its institutions work.
We need a multi-layered approach that involves different decision-makers and encompasses a shared mission.