Apr 7: E-Stories

NATO75 Kherson Kharkiv Zapo CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies EU-CEE A&P UKDef ISW NoelReport CDS Avdeeva Occupied Razom4UA Tagesschau Chalupa Finley FT Kokcharov Kapparov Dermenzhi VOA Walton

Catching up…

EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.

On April 4th NATO celebrated its 75th Anniversary. The Alliance started with 12 members in 1949 and now includes 32, with the latest inclusion of Finland (2023) and Sweden (2024). The video below was produced by UK Defence.

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Stories we’re following…

A Russian airstrike on Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia has killed four people and injured 26 others, according to local governor. A series of blasts had been reported in the city of Zaporizhzhia on Friday. Reuters reported earlier in the day that Ukraine’s air force shot down all 13 drones used in Russia’s overnight attack on the southern regions of Zaporizhzhia, Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk, though nothing had been said about the missiles.

Syrskyi: Chasiv Yar remains under Ukraine's control, heavy battles east of city. Fierce battles are taking place east of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast as Russian forces are attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said on April 6.

Kharkiv was attacked by Shahed drones on April 4, where 6 people died, including 3 rescuers. 10 people are known to be injured, including a rescuer. Residential buildings at various addresses were damaged, and fires broke out. The rescuers, who arrived on call to one of the addresses, were repeatedly hit by drones. Also, three units of DSNS equipment were damaged.

Up-date: Kharkiv rescuers Vladyslav Loginov, Serhiy Baydalinov, and Volodymyr Matyushenko. Killed by Russian Shahed drones while they were only trying to save people. Another rescuer is seriously injured.

State Emergency Service: Russian double-tap attacks have killed 91 first responders, injured 348. Most recently, Russian forces used such a tactic in a drone attack against Kharkiv overnight on April 4, killing three State Emergency Service employees: 52-year-old Vladyslav Lohinov, 32-year-old Serhii Baidalinov, and 41-year-old Volodymyr Matiushenko.

Zelensky: Russia used over 4,000 missiles, Shahed drones, guided aerial bombs against Ukraine in March. Russian forces launched over 400 missiles of various types, 600 Shahed drones, and 3,000 guided aerial bombs, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on April 3.

Some villages in occupied Kherson Oblast 'no longer exist,' official says. The situation in Oleshky in occupied Kherson Oblast is deteriorating under Russian occupation, and some villages "no longer exist," Tetiana Hasanenko, the exiled head of Oleshky's military administration, told Radio Svoboda on April 3.

Journalists were attacked yesterday by a Russian air strike in Kherson, which is being hit very hard. Many people have pointed out that it is a double-tap strike, hitting emergency workers as they save those hit by the first one. We’ve seen strikes before against hotels or cafés frequented by them in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia.

Ukraine announces mandatory evacuation for children from 52 settlements in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian authorities mandated the evacuation of children from two communities, including 52 settlements, in Sumy Oblast, the Reintegration Ministry announced on April 5.

Last year, E-Stories featured the documentary, Occupied, by Dmytro Bahnenko and his family, who managed to escape from the Russian occupation of Kherson. which was the story of a family’s escape from Kherson. In the documentary we meet a Ukrainian priest who was active in the resistance movement in the area, providing medicines, and other humanitarian aid to his flock. He was illegally arrested and subjected to torture by the Russians.

Energoatom: Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant 'on verge of blackout' after recent Russian attack. An external overhead line that supplies power from Ukraine's energy grid to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in the city of Enerhodar was disconnected on April 4 after Russian attacks, the state nuclear energy agency Energoatom said.

Noel Report: A new Ukrainian line of defense in the Zaporizhzhia region, seen through the eyes of a Russian reconnaissance drone. An anti-tank ditch and dragon's teeth are visible. Also a large crater in front of the dragon's teeth can be seen, presumably a KAB guided bomb intended to destroy it.

Ukraine's military intelligence hints drone attacks on military facilities in Russia to continue, 'range will increase.' Andrii Yusov, a spokesman for Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), hinted on April 4 that drone strikes on military facilities inside Russia will continue and "their range will increase."

Edward Christie: The Financial Times reports that Russia has made thousands of attempts to interfere with European rail networks in a campaign to destabilise the EU and sabotage critical infrastructure, the Czech Republic’s transport minister has said. This is pre-war activity, which is designed to:

• cause dysfunction today, and trial the ability to cause dysfunction tomorrow, which would be advantageous to Russia if it were to attack EU/NATO nations;

• cause disconnections between EU/NATO nations to make civilian and ultimately military cross-border connections harder;

• cause disconnections between Central European nations and Ukraine, so as to isolate and disconnect Ukraine from civilian and ultimately military exchanges with Central Europe and ultimately all of Europe;

• disrupt, intimidate, and demoralise enemy nations today -- harming their economies and signalling that more harm could come.

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Combat Situation Update

Bloomberg: US warns allies about China's provision of geospatial intelligence to Russia. The U.S. is cautioning its allies about China's increased backing of Russia, which includes supplying geospatial intelligence to aid Moscow in its war against Ukraine.

US Treasury Secretary warns China of 'significant consequences' if its companies support Russia’s war. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Beijing of "significant consequences" if Chinese companies provide support for Russia’s war against Ukraine during her meetings with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.

Military: Russian use of prohibited chemical weapons has become 'systemic'. Ukrainian forces recorded 371 cases of usage of munition containing prohibited chemicals over the past month, which is 90 cases more than during the previous one.

Military intelligence: Ukraine denies Russia's potential offensive on Kharkiv, calls it 'psychological operation'. Rumors of a potential Russian offensive on Kharkiv are part of a Russian "psychological operation," Andrii Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence, said on April 3.

Michael MacKay: Yesterday, the Russian forces fired mortars and artillery at more than 20 villages on this front including Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, Semenivka, Netaylove, Heorhiyivka, Paraskoviyivka, Kostyantynivka and Vuhledar in Donetsk region.

• In the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 2 assaults by the Russian invaders on Staromayors'ke in Donetsk region and Robotyne in Zaporizhzhya region.

ISW: Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated that Ukraine does not have enough materiel to contest the battlefield initiative.

• Zelensky stated during an interview aired on April 6 that Ukrainian forces currently do not have enough ammunition to initiate and sustain future counteroffensive operations and reiterated that Ukrainian forces are currently using drones to partially compensate for artillery ammunition shortages across the theater.

• Zelensky stressed that Ukraine must conduct countermeasures to deprive Russian forces of the ability to prepare and conduct significant offensive efforts and not only rely on defensive operations.

• Zelensky stated that striking Russian force concentrations is one such countermeasure but that Ukrainian forces lack long-range weapons to strike Russian force concentrations and other targets necessary to undermine Russian operations.

• Up to three thousand former Wagner Group mercenaries may join the Chechen special forces unit Akhmat.

General Staff: Enlistment offices to summon men aged 25 to provide personal data, undergo medical checks. Military enlistment offices will begin calling up citizens from the military register who have reached the age of 25 to provide personal data, undergo medical checks, and fill out relevant documents, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Force said.

Ukrainian officials claimed on Friday that the drone strike targeting the Morozovsk airbase in Russia had killed or injured 20 members of personnel.

The officials, speaking on anonymity to the AP because they were not authorised to publicly discuss the operation, had also said the attack destroyed at least six military aircrafts and badly damaged eight others. However, Russian defence officials claimed they intercepted more than 40 Ukrainian drones and only a power substation was damaged.

RBC: According to sources within the GUR, Ukrainian drone attacks likely caused serious damage to at least 3 Tu-95MS strategic bombers at the Engels-2 airfield, resulting in the death of seven Russian servicemen, including potential bomber pilots. Another target, the military airfield in Yeisk, also suffered damage, with at least four Russian servicemen killed and two Su-25 aircraft completely destroyed. Additionally, an airfield in Kursk was reportedly damaged, but further details about the extent of the damage are still forthcoming, RBC reports. We are awaiting visual confirmation of the information released.

President Zelensky on the importance of drones: Ukrainian drones destroy the occupiers. They protect the lives of our soldiers on the front lines. And they help Ukraine decrease Russiaʼs war potential. In the sky and at sea, our drones have demonstrated that Ukrainian strength can defeat Russian evil.

Ukrainian forces also hit a substation in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzia region near Tokmak. (photo below) During the night on April 5, in the area of Azov, Rostov region, a pipeline that pumped oil products from a local oil depot was blown up, the Ukrainian GUR reports, suggesting their involvement in this operation.

Ten Ukrainian manufacturers will deliver armed drones this year that can fly up to 2,500 kilometers, according to BILD. Approximately 80 Russian military bases including Olenya, where Russia stationed strategic Tupolev bombers, are then within reach.

Media: NATO considers Russian spring offensive unlikely. NATO intelligence data suggests that Russia is unlikely to launch a large-scale offensive in the near future, European Pravda reported on April 4, citing a NATO official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Lukashenko decides to suspend Belarus from European Conventional Armed Forces treaty. Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko agreed to introduce a bill on the suspension of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) to the lower house of the country's parliament, Lukashenko's press service reported on April 5.

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Behind the Lines

Tagesschau, German Companies to rebuild Mariupol for the Russians

The city of Mariupol in Ukraine has been extensively destroyed by Russia, resulting in the deaths and displacement of tens of thousands of civilians. The reconstruction efforts play a central role in Russian propaganda, with German companies reportedly involved in the process. Despite the brutal destruction caused by Russian forces, the Kremlin has initiated the construction of a "new" Mariupol, with Russian residents, funded by the Russian government.

German firms, including Knauf, a leading manufacturer of gypsum products, are implicated in providing materials for the reconstruction. Although Knauf has condemned Russia's aggression and claims to adhere to EU sanctions, its involvement in projects within illegally Russian-occupied territories raises ethical concerns. It is worth noting that company patriarch Nikolaus Knauf was Russian honorary consul for more than two decades.

Additionally, WKB Systems GmbH, a German company, has supplied construction materials to projects associated with WKB Systems GmbH's main shareholder, Russian oligarch Viktor Konstantinowitsch Budarin. Budarin used his German company as a supplier to the construction industry in Russia. Despite EU sanctions targeting various Russian oligarchs, Budarin remains unaffected. (continue)

Minister: Over 36 million tons of goods exported via Black Sea corridor since August 2023. According to Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, Ukraine's corridor has already facilitated shipments of more goods than the Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by Turkey and the U.N. in July 2022.

Ombudsman: 7 more children returned home from Russian-occupied territories. Seven more Ukrainian children, together with their families, were returned home from the Russian-occupied territories in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on April 3.

SBU: Russian information operations seek to discredit Ukraine's top officials, military. Russian intelligence services have launched a "huge number" of disinformation and psychological operations against Ukraine's top government and military officials, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) cybersecurity chief Illia Vitiuk said in an interview with Ukrinform published on April 4.

Alex Finley: “Damage of Russian hack of Microsoft is bigger than originally thought. Affects the USG. As I've been saying: we may not think we are at war with Russia, but Russia certainly thinks it is at war with us.”

7 suspects listed in Ukrainian Railways corruption scandal. Seven people have been listed as suspects in a corruption scheme connected to Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia), the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) reported on April 3.

Ruling party in Georgia will again try to pass 'foreign agents' law withdrawn following protests in 2023. The bill, popularly known in Georgia as the "Russian law" for its resemblance to similar legislation passed there, was introduced previously in early 2023 by the Georgian Dream party.

Romanian Defense Ministry proposes law enabling military intervention to protect Romanians abroad. Romania's Defense Ministry has proposed a draft law that would enable its troops to be deployed to protect Romanian citizens outside of Romania's territory, Romanian newspaper Adevarul reported on April 3.

Bloomberg: Western sanctions curb Turkey's trade with Russia. Turkish machinery exporters, who benefited from the surge in sales to Russia last year, may see their revenues drop by $1 billion in 2024 due to "ambiguous" sanctions, Bloomberg said, citing Kutlu Karavelioglu, the chairperson of the Machinery Exporters' Association.

A Russian ship with sanctioned goods that were supposed to be delivered to the United States was detained in Germany. The cargo ship Atlantic Navigator II, traveling from St. Petersburg under the flag of the Marshall Islands to the United States, was forced to call at the German port of Rostock due to damage to the propeller. During the inspection, customs inspectors found goods on board that were under EU sanctions and prohibited the ship from continuing its journey.

Russian spies at NATO: I have no idea why it took NATO so long to send these spies back to Russia. Now they’re going to have to wead out the NATO representatives that have close ties to Russia. Yes, there are members who have passed intelligence to Russia, and they have not been isolated.

Bloomberg: India set to receive Russian warships despite sanctions. India will receive two Russian-made warships in the next few months as the two countries work around U.S. sanctions that have complicated purchases of Russian arms, unnamed Indian officials told Bloomberg.

US announces new sanctions against shipping company linked to Iranian military. The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said that the move was in part guided by the goal of "disrupting Iran's ability to...support Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine."

South Korea has seized a stateless vessel that allegedly engaged in activities in violation of U.N. sanctions in waters off the country's south coast near Yeosu. The 3000 ton cargo ship DEYI was reportedly en route to Russia from North Korea via China.

Ally of Russia-friendly leader wins Slovakian presidential election. Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico, known for his friendly stance towards Russia and firm opposition to providing military aid to Ukraine, is set to consolidate his hold on power following the victory of his ally in the country's presidential election.

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Meanwhile in Russia

According to NATO estimates, Ukrainian drone strikes disabled at least 10%, possibly more than 15% of Russia's oil refining infrastructure. Depending on the extent of the damage, repairs could take a significant amount of time and require additional costs.

Some of you reading may not remember the early 1980s, when President Reagan applied crippling sanctions to stop the Soviets from gaining access to funding in the international commercial banking sector, and prohibited the sale of technology and other equipment that could aid the Soviets. These measures hit their ability to refine or transport oil and gas. The Yamal Pipeline was severely delayed, and other projects were halted in Soviet Russia.

The strikes against Russian oil refineries have the same objective: deprive the Russians of state income to continue the war. The Russians have approached Kakakhstan to help them in replacing Russian refining capacity, but the Kazakhs have refused.

The Astrakhan gas processing plant in Russia was stopped for 'unscheduled repairs', the timing of which is still unknown. The reason and the details of the outage are not clear, Gazprom refused to comment immediately.

The need for manpower: Our in-house economic analyst, Madi Kapparov, posits that the surge in Russian nationalisation of various companies is more to do with the Kremlin’s need to provide manpower for the armed forces. Most companies are solicited to send a number of their employees to the front. Last summer, a fire broke out in a Wildberries warehouse in St Petersburg because employees opposed being sent to the front. It is normal for Russian authorities to drive up to companies and haul men into vans headed to a recritment centre or directly to army barracks.

Imprisoned rights activist Oleg Orlov is suffering hearing loss due to a cold that has gone untreated, the Memorial Human Rights Group reported on Monday. The 70-year-old, who was convicted of “discrediting” the Russian military and is in the process of appealing his 2.5-year prison sentence, has reportedly been unable to see a doctor because he has to attend court hearings daily.

Spinning more tales and false narratives: Russian investigators claimed to have found pro-Ukraine data on the phone of one of the Moscow terror attack suspects, despite evidence that an offshoot of the Islamic State (IS) was responsible. Russia’s investigative committee said that data from one of the suspects’ phones and that the suspect “had confirmed all this in his statements” and also said they had found photos showing men in camouflage holding the Ukrainian flag in front of destroyed buildings.

The Foreign Ministry, Justice Ministry, and other government departments are “working on the issue” of removing the Taliban from Russia’s list of terrorist organizations, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced on Monday. The final decision will be left up to the country’s top leadership, the ministry said. Russia designated the Taliban as a terrorist organization in 2003.

A dam failure on the Ural River in Orenburg Oblast, Russia, prompted urgent evacuation calls for the city of Orsk's residents, as reported by the Baza Telegram channel on April 5.

“Kazakhstan will be next. There is already a solution": The Cheka-OGPU had at its disposal a voice message that Deputy of the State Duma of the russian federation, Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev, sent to colleagues from the State Duma Committee on Defense. In it, he assures that after Ukraine, russia can attack Kazakhstan and there is already a corresponding “go-ahead.”

US lifts sanctions against former European branch of Russia's VTB Bank. Ost-West Handelsbank has been removed from the list, according to the information on the office's website. The names under which the bank used to operate earlier – VTB Bank Deutschland and VTB Bank Europe – were also struck down.

Medvedev’s latest screed. While Italian vectors for Russian propaganda are screaming like frogs in a box that NATO is the cause of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Medvedev writes that all Ukrainians must be killed, echoeing Solovyev’s statements on Russian national TV.

The latest crazy accusations against Ukraine in the Italian infospace is that NATO put poison in chocolate, which the Ukrainian army distributed to children to make them sick, and that there is an imminent coup in Ukraine that will be carried out by the military. Of course, the chocolate narrative brings us back to American troops which distributed food, including chocolate, to civilians during the Allied occupation.

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Allied Support

Bloomberg: Top Republicans say Ukraine aid vote weeks away, contradicting Johnson's shorter timeline. The comments differed from an assertion from House Speaker Mike Johnson, who said on April 1 that it would be held "right after Easter."

U.S. Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken: "Putin’s desire to conquer the whole country, to wipe it off the map, to make it part of a greater Russia, has not materialized and it won’t. It is not happening, it’s never going to happen," US State Secretary Blinken said. (Me: Fewer words, more action please.)

Zelensky: Ukraine needs 25 Patriot air defense systems to cover the country. President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview for national television on April 6, called on international partners to provide Ukraine with modern air defense systems to defend against Russian attacks.

British Foreign Secretary, David Cameron, makes his case for what needs to happe quickly, and his message to House Speaker, Mike Johnson:

Stoltenberg: Long-term NATO support for Ukraine can show Russia it cannot win the war. NATO's transition to a longer-term commitment to support Ukraine could eventually push Moscow to a peace agreement, where Russia realize "that they cannot win the war," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on April 3 ahead of the NATO meeting in Brussels.

NATO foreign ministers decided to "establish a NATO mission," said Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.

"We decided to create a NATO mission. This does not mean that we are going to war, but it means that now we will be able to use the capabilities of the Alliance for coordination, preparation and planning to support Ukraine in a more coordinated way," he said.

WSJ: Macron privately pushed Biden, Scholz to adopt 'strategic ambiguity' toward Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron held confidential calls with U.S. President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in February to convince them about the need for strategic ambiguity toward Russia, the Wall Street Journal reported on April 3, citing undisclosed official sources.

Estonian President: Ukraine's right to attack military targets in Russia 'entirely legitimate.' During a meeting with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in Tallinn on April 3, Estonian President Alar Karis reaffirmed support for Ukraine's attacks on military targets in Russia, stating that it was "perfectly legitimate for the Ukrainian forces to destroy infrastructure critical to the Russian army."

President of Finland Alexander Stubb and Zelensky signed an agreement on security cooperation and long-term support. This document demonstrates Finland's readiness to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

"Finland will provide long-term military and financial assistance, as well as deepen cooperation with Ukraine in the political, financial, humanitarian, and reform fields. It will help Ukraine rebuild the energy sector, assess environmental damage, strengthen border and critical infrastructure protection, and treat Ukrainian soldiers. I thank Finland for supporting Ukraine and our people! Thank you for your help," Zelenskyi emphasized.

Netherlands allocates $11 million to help Ukraine investigate Russian war crimes. The Netherlands pledged to make available 10 million euros ($10.8 million) to help Ukraine investigate Russian war crimes, Dutch Foreign Minister Bruins Slot said on April 2 at the Restoring Justice for Ukraine Conference.

Austria provides $2.2 million in humanitarian aid for Ukraine. Austria is supporting Ukraine with 2 million euros ($2.2 million) worth of humanitarian aid, Austria's Foreign Ministry reported on April 3.

Japan to ban export of over 160 goods to Russia. The Japanese government announced on April 5 its decision to ban exports of 164 goods to Russia, namely automobile engine oil and optical equipment, the Jiji Press news agency reported.

Ukraine, Finland sign long-term security agreement. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Finnish counterpart, Alexander Stubb, signed in Kyiv a long-term security agreement between the two countries, Zelensky announced on April 3.

Latvian government approves $10 million for Ukraine's reconstruction, defense fund. The Latvian government approved on April 2 around 5.3 million euros (roughly $5.7 million) in support of Ukraine's reconstruction in 2024, as well as 4.3 million euros ($4.6 million) in defense assistance via the European Peace Facility.

The Latvian Prime Minister informed that a new military aid package for Ukraine is planned for April. From the reserves of the National Armed Forces, it is planned to donate material and technical means, including armaments and ammunition worth €22.2 million. This support package will primarily include ammunition, explosives and weapons, as well as transport and personal and support equipment.

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Calder Walton citing the Financial Times: "The warrant against Ott contains significant new information and indicates that Austria — a country with deep ties to Moscow, permissive espionage laws and a political establishment dogged by corruption and scandal in recent years — was at the heart of Marsalek’s own network."

Fugitive Wirecard COO Jan Marsalek used compromised intelligence officials in Vienna to spy on European citizens and plot break-ins and assassinations by elite Russian hit squads. He also obtained a Nato government’s cutting-edge cryptography machine and smuggled stolen senior Austrian civil servants’ phones to Moscow.

They are the most extensive official allegations to date that Marsalek, 44, was not only compromised by Russia, but may have been one of the Kremlin’s most powerful European intelligence assets, using his position as chief operating officer at the top of a Dax-listed company that almost took over Deutsche Bank, to facilitate violent clandestine operations across the continent and in Africa.

Naked photos sent in WhatsApp ‘phishing’ attacks on UK MPs and staff: Politicians, officials and journalists working in the U.K. parliament are being targeted with alluring personalized messages and explicit images in what experts believe is a clear attempt to compromise them.

POLITICO has so far identified six men — four staffers, a political journalist and one senior Labour MP — who all received unsolicited WhatsApp messages from two suspicious mobile numbers between October 2023 and February this year. 

All the messages were sent by one of two mobile phone numbers, by users calling themselves alternatively “Abi” or “Charlie.”

State of Maine representative, Laurel Libby, demanding to know what was so bad about the Nazis, and which laws they violated exactly because as far as she is concerned, they didn’t violate anyone’s rights.

I actually cannot believe that these thoughts and statements are still said today. What’s worse is that no one seems to have objected or pushed back the minute she uttered this garbage. What is wrong with us?

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Kyiv Independent: Season 2 Episode 13 is dedicated to whether Russian crimes in Ukraine amount to genocide. Co-host Masha Lavrova, filling in for Anastasiia, is joined by Danylo Mokryk –a reporter at the War Crimes Investigations unit.

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