Apr 9: E-Stories Sunday
Day 410: Bakhmut 500kg Belarus Crimea An124 RUtravel UA3Dprinters UN 2.4Tln ROC Iftar UA/NATO $1.2Bln GeorgiaReform Derbilov A&P Braw ISW Horvath Estonia Lula RUsanctions CEPA RUsanctions
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
For all those celebrating the holidays in this period, my warm cheers.
Stories we’re following…
Russian forces used ground- and air-fired missiles, rocket launchers and weaponised drones to bombard the provinces of Ukraine it has illegally annexed but doesn’t fully control, causing casualties, building damage and power outages on Friday.
Air Force: Increased Russian use of gliding bombs highlights need for F-16 jets. Air Force Spokesperson Yurii Ihnat stated that Russian forces are using high-explosive 500 kilogram bombs that have been modified with wings and elementary guidance systems to enable Russian planes to strike from beyond the range of Ukraine's air defenses.
3 killed, 17 injured as Russia attacks 9 Ukrainian regions over past 24 hours. Russian troops carried out attacks against nine Ukrainian oblasts over the past 24 hours, Ukraine's Defense Ministry media center reported on April 7. Three civilians were killed, and 17 more were wounded as of 9 a.m.
UK Defense Ministry: Russian troops 'have regained some momentum' in Bakhmut. Russian forces have recently "regained some momentum" in the battle for Ukraine's eastern city of Bakhmut after a delay in their advance since late March, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on April 7.
Ukrainian forces are working to strengthen defensive lines and positions along the border with Belarus and Russia, the defence ministry has said. Lt Gen Serhiy Nayev, commander of the joint forces of Ukraine’s armed forces, posted to Facebook:
The expansion of the system of engineering barriers in the areas bordering Belarus and Russia is ongoing. Anti-tank minefields are being created in tank accessible areas and probable paths of pushing the enemy deep into our territory which are roads, forest lanes, bridges, power lines, etc.
The Independent: Russia digging trenches in Crimea
Eleven Russian An-124 Ruslan, heavy transport aircraft, have been spotted at the Belarusian airport in Homiel since March 25, potentially delivering rockets for S-300/400 SAMs, the Belarusian Hajun monitoring group reported.
Slovak defense minister: Russian technicians possibly sabotaged Ukraine-bound MiGs. Russian technicians, who were present at the Slovak air base in Sliač until last year, may have deliberately damaged Slovak MiG-29 jet fighters that Bratislava recently supplied to Ukraine. “They were able to fly, but that doesn’t mean they were also capable of combat,” Slovak Defense Minister Jaroslav Naď said.
ISW: Former Russian proxy commander and prominent critical milblogger Igor Girkin revealed on April 7 that a volunteer battalion that he previously actively promoted is essentially a sham.
Russian media: Members of Russian government not allowed to travel abroad, Kremlin officials not impacted. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin reportedly banned government officials from leaving Russia without special permission.
RT France has been put into liquidation by a French court, the organisation’s former president said. The French arm of Russia’s RT broadcaster’s accounts were frozen over Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia lost elections to three United Nations bodies this week. Associated Press reports that the votes in the 54-member UN economic and social council (Ecosoc) follow approval of six non-binding resolutions against Russia by the 193-member UN general assembly.
In the Ecosoc votes, Russia was overwhelmingly defeated by Romania for a seat on the commission on the status of women. It lost to Estonia to be a member of the executive board of the UN children’s agency, Unicef. And it was defeated by Armenia and the Czech Republic in secret ballot votes for membership on the commission on crime prevention and criminal justice.
Russia’s Finance Ministry reports first quarter budget deficit of 2.4 trillion rubles. According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance, Russia’s federal budget for January–March saw a deficit of 2.4 trillion rubles ($29.5 billion). Legally, the 2023 budget is allowed a deficit of 2.93 trillion rubles ($35.9 billion). The Ministry of Finance says these indicators are primarily related to reduced oil and gas revenues, which the ministry says are down 45 percent compared to the same period last year.
After months of relative stability, the Russian ruble continued to weaken rapidly against major currencies on Friday, a trend that analysts say has been spurred by increased imports and a surge in foreign capital outflows. This week the Russian currency slumped to its lowest level since last April. On Friday it was trading above 83 rubles to the dollar, and more than 91 rubles against the euro, according to data published by the Moscow Stock Exchange.
Russia’s crypto mining capacity second only to U.S. Russia’s total capacity involved in mining has reached 1 GW. By contrast, the U.S. has 3–4 GW in capacities dedicated to mining. The top 10 global crypto producers include the Gulf States (700 MW), Canada (400 MW), Malaysia (300 MW), Argentina (135 MW), Iceland (120 MW), Paraguay (100–125 MW), Kazakhstan (100 MW), and Ireland (90 MW).
National Resistance Center: Russia increases repression in occupied parts of Ukraine's south for refusing to obtain Russian citizenship. Moscow-installed proxies in the occupied territories of southern Ukraine have increasingly forced civilians to obtain Russin passports, resorting to violence against those who refuse to do it, the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center reported on April 7.
Zelensky honors Muslim tradition by participating in first 'official' iftar. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on April 7 that Ukraine was beginning a new tradition of hosting official iftar meals during Ramadan.
Ukraine uses 3D printers to create munitions amid critical shortage of artillery shells, The Washington Post says Even despite a critical shortage of ammunition, the Ukrainians still fire around 7,700 shells per day, according to the Washington Post.
Ukraine says Russia refuses all-for-all Muslim POW exchange for Ramadan. Russian authorities rebuffed Ukraine's proposition to exchange all Muslim prisoners of war from both sides at the beginning of the Ramadan month on March 22, Daria Zarivna, a communication adviser to the head of the President's Office, told Voice of America.
Ukraine, Poland to jointly repair T-64 tanks. Ukraine's state-owned defense conglomerate Ukroboronprom announced on April 8 that it would launch joint maintenance of Soviet-era T-64 tanks with a unit of state arms producer Polish Armaments Group (PGZ).
Financial Times: US, Germany, Hungary oppose offering Ukraine 'road map' to NATO membership. The United States, Germany, and Hungary oppose the efforts by some other NATO allies to offer Ukraine a "road map" for membership at the alliance's July summit in Vilnius, the Financial Times reported, citing officials involved in the talks.
Financial Times: UK firm has exported $1.2 billion of electronics to Russia despite sanctions. British firm Mykines Corporation reportedly exported $1.2 billion worth of technical equipment, including high-end microchips, telecom equipment, and servers, to Russia since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, potentially violating sanctions on export, the Financial Times reported.
The U.S. government has charged an Estonian national with conspiracy related to the receipt of U.S.-made electronics by Russia's government and military that endangered citizens in Ukraine and the United States. The U.S. Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of New York unsealed an 18-count indictment against Andrei Shevlyakov on April 5, according to a press release issued by the office.
“For more than a decade, the defendant has been acquiring sensitive electronics from U.S. manufacturers on behalf of the Russian government, in defiance of U.S. export controls,” said U.S. Attorney Breon Peace.
Brazil says Ukraine should cede Crimea to Russia to end war, Kyiv says no. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva suggested that Ukraine should be open to the idea of giving up Crimea in exchange for peace with Russia. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, “Ukraine does not give up its territories.”
Ukrainian sculptor and musician Anton Derbilov died in battle in the Luhansk region. The death of a warrior with the call sign "Patrick" was reported by the 5th Separate Brigade of the National Guard, where he served since February 2022. In civilian life, Anton Derbilov, together with his wife Ekaterina, founded the Sirko Toys family studio and created thousands of unique models of tin soldiers.
Making a miniature army of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, he sought to tell the world the history of Ukraine and assert the glory of the Ukrainian Cossacks. But when the enemy invaded Ukrainian land, the artist left the production of military historical miniatures and took up real weapons.
On April 6, Anton died in the battles for the village of Kreminna, falling under mortar fire. The Hero has three daughters.
Russian Economic Prospects 'Foggy' as Sanctions Cut Deep
By AFP, The Moscow Times, April 6, 2023
"The sanctions imposed against the Russian economy in the medium term could really have a negative impact," Putin said at a televised meeting.
It was a major change of tone after Putin earlier said the worst was over, praising the benefits of "economic sovereignty" and insisting that the West's sanctions strategy has backfired.
What exactly is Putin's message? "Mr. Putin's observation is quite simply realistic," Arnaud Dubien, director of the Franco-Russian Observatory think tank in Moscow, said. "You're only safe in Russia under my charge, there's no way back," she said, referring to his possible thinking.
More than a year into Moscow's offensive in Ukraine, the Russian economy finds itself ever more dependent on energy exports to Asia and slipping further behind in many high-value sectors. An exodus of hundreds of thousands of Russians and the Kremlin's mobilization drive have led to labor force shortages. [continue reading]
Reform and Resistance: Georgia’s Path to EU Candidacy
By Sasha Stone, Sandro Kevkhishvili, Alexander Kupatadze, Tamar Oniani, Gigi Gigiadze, Gia Gvilava, Shota Gvineria and Olesya Vartanyan, CEPA, April 6, 2023
In June 2022, the European Union (EU) granted candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova, but not to Georgia. Instead, the Commission outlined 12 recommendations that must be addressed as a prerequisite for candidacy status.
Despite some progress, the Georgian government has not implemented reforms addressing the most significant problems highlighted by the Commission, and the recently proposed “foreign agents” law seemed a serious step in the wrong direction. Permanently or even indefinitely shelving Georgia’s EU candidacy would represent a strategic failure for the EU, effectively ceding ground to Russia and weakening European soft power. Whether Georgia makes progress over the next six months will be a crucial test of both sides’ credibility.
Key recommendations for the EU:
Clearly define what meaningful progress is required to meet these recommendations, particularly with regards to de-oligarchization and depolarization which will take a deeper level of political reforms to fully address.
Clarify that setbacks, such as the recently proposed “foreign agents” law, will negatively affect the prospects for EU candidacy.
Provide updates on a more regular basis regarding which of the conditions have been met, which remain unfulfilled or have seen negative developments, and the justification behind this assessment.
More strongly communicate the EU’s commitment to move forward with Georgia.
Put in place mechanisms to move forward with Georgia’s candidacy status when these conditions are met, while also committing not to add any new conditions outside the remit of the outlined recommendations.
Read The Telegraph story here.