Aug 1: E-Stories
Day 522: Kherson KryvyiRih Kherson Zelensky Grain Chonchar Georgia Lvova-Belova Wagner Moldova US Czech PeaceFormulaJehhah Climate Circassia CroatiA&P UKDef Guterres Battistini Ilves Davis NYTStarLink
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Georgian protesters continue their civil dissent, blocking the buses. About 200 people from Georgian opposition parties and movements are blocking the exit of passengers of the Astoria Grande liner to the pier, blogger Nikolai Levshits reports on his Telegram channel. According to him, the activists did not let the bus that came to pick up the tourists into the port. Five protesters were detained.
Stories we’re following…
Russia launches attack on Kharkiv with S-300 missiles. Russian forces launched strikes on Kharkiv using the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, head of the Kharkiv military garrison Serhii Melnyk reported on Telegram on July 30.
Russian Iskander strike against Kryvyi Rih kills 6, injures 75, including 4 children. Russia launched a missile strike against the city of Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on July 31, killing at least one person and injuring at least 10, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko reported. A residential building, university building and a cross-roads was hit.
Olena Zelenska, has commented on this morning’s strike on Kryvyi Rih, hers and Zelenskyy’s home town, posting:
Kryvyi Rih, multi-storey buildings damaged by Russian shelling. There are wounded and dead. This is how the week begins in a Ukrainian city that just wants a quiet, normal life. Russia wants to take peace and life away. Condolences to the victims and their families. Let’s stay strong.
Suspline also reports that “as a result of morning shelling in Kherson, 3 people killed, 17 more were injured. The Russian army shelled Kramatorsk with rockets at night, and an industrial zone was hit. There were no casualties or injuries.”
A marked increase in Russian shelling of Kherson today. The regional authorities explain the intensity of the shelling by the rotation of Russian troops on the left bank. "Russia has replenished its forces that had previously defeated our Armed Forces. They will destroy these too, but we have to wait a bit!" the statement reads.
Russian air strikes destroyed an estimated 180,000 metric tons of grain crops in the space of nine days this month, the Ukrainian foreign ministry said on Monday, Reuters reports. Russia has conducted air strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure – notably at Odesa – several times after withdrawing from the Black Sea grain deal.
'A good, a powerful day' for Ukraine on frontline, says Zelenskyy: On Sunday, the Ukrainian forces repelled attacks in the northeast and took ground on the Bakhmut front. Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar, said Russian forces were “trying to drive us out” of elevated positions in the north-east occupied by Moscow after its February 2022 invasion but retaken later by Ukrainian troops.
Chonchar Bridge (Crimea): on June 22, Ukrainian missiles hit the Chonchar Bridge, one of a few bridges connecting Crimea to mainland Ukraine. The Russian installed governor, Sergei Asksyonov, reported it on his TG channel, but Russian milbloggers have almost totally ignored reporting on it, confirming that the Kremlin is piloting the news that can or cannot be posted.
Ukrainian forces shell Donetsk. According to the Russian-appointed "authorities" of the city, on the morning of July 30, Donetsk came under artillery fire from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. As a result, two people were killed and five others were injured. Sheling continued on Monday. RIA Novosti reported that the center of Donetsk was under fire, as a result of a missile strike near the Wedding Palace.
Stefania Battistini with the 35 Marines the 35th Brigade who liberated Starvomaioske in southern Ukraine. Melitopol is 75 km away. You can feel how active the front is w/ Luca Nicolosi.
Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s vice-prime minister who also runs the ministry of digital transformation, said Russia lost 87 units of equipment last week, including 33 strongholds, 26 armored combat vehicles and 15 tanks.
Intelligence: Russia has forcibly mobilized up to 60,000 men in occupied territories. Since the beginning of 2022, Russia has forcibly mobilized from 55,000 to 60,000 men in the occupied territories of Ukraine, military intelligence spokesperson Andrii Cherniak said on July 30.
The military registration and enlistment offices of the Volgograd region launched a campaign to recruit women into the army. Residents of the region report calls with a proposal to conclude a contract with the Ministry of Defense, writes IA OBLVESTI.
“They called me from the military commissariat and voiced an offer that either surprised or shocked me. I have nothing to do with the army, the same medicine. My categorical refusal was accepted calmly, ”said a resident of Volzhsky.
FSB announced the arrest of three residents of the Voronezh region for treason. According to authorities, the detainees passed on information about Russian military facilities and transport infrastructure to members of the Ukrainian forces. The names of the detainees are not given, but they note that they are Russian citizens.
Russia is currently incapable of occupying Ukrainian seaports, therefore all strikes launched on them should be considered terrorist attacks, president Zelenskyy said in an interview with a Brazilian publication.
"Is it sane for a person to attack ports? Let’s just discuss this. He [Putin – ed.] cannot occupy these ports. These are not military actions. It is not even about the war. He cannot disembark in our ports. It is impossible. He is not capable of it. We will simply sink all his fleet if he comes too close. He is fully aware of it."
"Therefore, this is not a military target. He launches attacks on Odesa, on its seaports and historical centre…Here we must answer the question 'why?'. It is not because of the grain. [It is – ed.] terrorism, a terrorist act for terrorising the population…"
The Kerch Bridge fitted with anti-drone fencing, which will remain in place indefinitely.
In Russia, the ombudswoman for children Lvova-Belova confirmed in a report that Russia had kidnapped 700,000 children from occupied areas in Ukraine and moved them across the border in 2022 as reported by Forbes Russia. Lvova-Belova is wanted by the ICC in The Hague for war crimes.
About 1,500 pupils of institutions for children left without parental care and orphans arrived in Russia, the report says. 228 children from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and 92 children from the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) were placed in foster families of Russian citizens. From April to October 2022, 380 children from the DPR and LPR left without parental care were placed in Russian foster families from 19 regions of the country.
Saudi Arabia and Turkey have brokered secret talks to return Ukrainian children displaced to Russia after its “special operation” in Ukraine began, the Financial Times reported in mid-July, citing four sources familiar with the process. Billionaire Roman Abramovich is involved in the negotiations, according to two informed sources of the newspaper.
China is imposing restrictions on the export of drones and their components after the US authorities accused Beijing of supplying the Russian army with dual-use goods. From now on, deliveries of long-range civilian drones abroad will be possible only upon obtaining an export license, the Associated Press reports , citing a statement by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.
Julia Davis: “Discussions on state TV reveal the way Russia sees the world, including Africa (a potential prize with vast mineral resources) and Russia's neighbors like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan (sources of cheap migrant labor). There is also plenty of casual racism.”
New audio released by Prigozhin by Kemlin-affiliated Grey Zone:
“As soon as the Motherland needs to create a new group that will be able to protect the interests of our country, we will certainly start recruiting,” Prigozhin announced the end of the recruitment of mercenaries in Russia.”
“Today we are defining our next tasks, whose outline is becoming clearer and clearer. Undoubtedly, these are tasks that will be carried out in the name of the greatness of Russia,” a voice sounding like Prigozhin’s said in the message, published on Grey Zone, a Telegram channel affiliated with Wagner on July 31.
The Times: UK attempt to blacklist Wagner complicated by Putin's reaction to rebellion. The U.K. now faces the issue that blacklisting Wagner would amount to an official arm of the Russian government having the same status as groups such as the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, the Times reported on July 30.
Russian embassy in Moldova shutting down consular duties on Aug 5 “for technical reasons”. This comes after Moldovan president, Maia Sandu, order the reduction of embassy staff from 80 to 25, as a measure to check Russian influence and intelligence operations in Moldova. The Russians have threatened retaliation.
Ukrainians taking down the Soviet symbol in the monument. Toomas Ilves tweeted, “Now for Step 2. Cut the awful hammer, sickle and wheat sheaves into 1 cm cubes and sell them at 10€ apiece with proceeds going buy more drones. Commie crap at least can be good for something.”
Finance Ministry: Ukraine receives $1.25-billion grant from US through the Multi-Donor Trust Fund of the World Bank, the Finance Ministry announced on July 31.
Czechia freezes assets of Russian oligarch with ties to Putin. The Czech government has blocked the bank accounts and frozen the assets of Russian oligarch Vladimir Yevtushenkov, Radio Prague reported on July 30, citing Czech Television.
Ukraine and Croatia have agreed on exporting Ukrainian grain, which became more challenging after Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, during the visit of Gordan Grlić-Radman, Croatian Minister of Foreign Affairs, to Kyiv.
"We have agreed on using Croatian ports on the Danube and the Adriatic Sea for transporting Ukrainian grain. We will now work on establishing the most efficient routes to these ports and make the most of this opportunity," said Dmytro Kuleba, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, during a briefing on Monday.
Military reports that yesterday, three civilian ships (Israelian, Greek and Turkish/Georgian origin) were able to bypass the Russian blockade of the Black Sea and headed for Ukraine. It is reported that the passage was secured by a US P8 anti-ship aircraft.
US and Australia call on Chinese authorities to influence Russia. The United States and Australia condemned Russia's weaponization of food in a joint statement on July 29, calling on world powers such as China to influence Russia's decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
The owner of the IKEA chain of stores and Mega shopping centers has sold its headquarters in Russia. The Swedish Ingka Centers sold the Khimki Business Park office complex, which housed the Russian headquarters of the company, Vedomosti writes.
The United States is poised to cut off assistance to Niger if its democratically elected leader is not restored to office, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this weekend, warning that the military ouster of Bazoum could have painful ramifications for Nigerien citizens. This comes after the head of Niger’s presidential guard declared himself the leader of the West African nation on Friday.
Italy made an "improvised and atrocious" decision when it joined China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) four years ago as it did little to boost exports, Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said in an interview. A study shows China spent $240 billion bailing out 'Belt and Road' countries.
UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres declared on Thursday that “The era of global warming has ended. The era of global boiling has arrived.” He continued,
“Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning,” said the UN chief, warning that the consequences are as clear as they are tragic: “children swept away by monsoon rains, families running from the flames (and) workers collapsing in scorching heat.”
Scientists at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said that new data showed that so far, July has seen the hottest three-week period ever recorded and the three hottest days on record, and the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service described conditions this month as “rather remarkable and unprecedented”. Carlo Buentempo, Director of Copernicus Climate Change Service, said:
“This anomaly is so large with respect to other record-breaking months in our record that we are virtually certain that the month, the month as a whole will become the warmest July on record, the warmest month on record, in all likelihood.”
Guterres added that equally “worrying was the fact that ocean temperatures are at their highest-ever recorded levels for this time of year. This trend has been apparent since the end of April.” He said leaders “must step up for climate action and climate justice”, particularly those from the G20 leading industrial nations, responsible for 80 per cent of global emissions.
Peace Formula conference in Saudi Arabia
‘Peace Formula’ meeting to take place on August 5 and 6 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. President Zelenskyy's Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak said on July 30 that Saudia Arabia will host a Ukraine-organised peace summit in early August to discuss the implementation of Ukraine’s peace initiatives.
An official confirmed that Russia was not invited. Participating nations include Ukraine, the US, Brazil, India, South Africa and several other countries, the Saudi official said. Details are still in the making.
President Zelenskyy’s 10-point peace formula, which was presented in late December 2022, should be “taken as a basis, because the war is taking place on our land”, said Yermak. Kyiv has described the formula as including the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops and a tribunal for those responsible for the aggression.
Last December, Russia rejected Zelenskyy's peace formula, and Moscow has reiterated on several occasions, including in St Petersburg on Sunday, that it would not give up any territory it has conquered. In a press conference on Saturday at the conclusion of the Russia-Africa Summit, Putin said he could not entertain peace negotiations while Russia was “under attack", distorting and distracting from the fact that Russia unleashed a full-scale invasion on Ukraine in February 2022 after years of war in Donbas since 2014.
In a recent interview, I was asked if ‘peace negotiations’ were at all possible. In Jeddah, Ukraine will set out the 10-pt peace formula, and each country is free to adhere to all points or some points. It’s an important diplomatic step which raises awareness for all those in attendance, and underscores Ukraine working within the international legal framework.
Recent developments in Russia point to a country that has no intention of peace. Late on Friday evening, the Russian State Duma passed a series of laws, in which the legal age of conscription was increased from 27 to 30 years old. State Duma representative Kartapov said that the law “was written for a big war, for general mobilisation.”
In addition, the Russia-Africa Summit in St Petersberg was Russia’s opportunity to further entrench Russian forces and business interests in Africa. and most likely, to underwrite contracts for the extraction of resources. Yvegeny Prigozhin was pictured at the Summit shaking hands with African leaders, offering Wagner’s ‘security services’. In the ‘coup belt’—which extends from Senegal in the west to Sudan and Eritrea in the east—the Russian war cartel has gained concessions to mines and oil fields, which serve to fund Russia’s war in Ukraine and operations in North Africa.
Russia has also pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, endangering the food security to over 37 nations across the globe. It’s action amounts to the weaponisation of hunger. Russia shows no signs of returning to the deal, despite the international outcry, and has instead increased missile strikes on grain ports in the Danube estuary and the civilian population.
Furthermore, propaganda on Russian state TV programmes has doubled down on the narrative that Russia must take all of Ukraine, annihilate its population, and extend the war beyond Ukrainian borders. Although this may be catalogued as empty threats, it certainly points to the Kremlin preparing the population for a long war.
For now the Peace Formula Conference will give Ukraine the opportunity to shore up its diplomatic ties with the participant nations, discuss issues surrounding a just and lasting peace and a possible framework, and raise awareness on how to achieve it.
Donald Trump dominating DeSantis and rivals for the G.O.P. presidential nomination, Times/Siena poll for 2024
Donald Trump is leading his nearest challenger, Ron DeSantis, by 37 percentage points nationally among the likely Republican primary electorate, with party voters unconcerned about the former president's escalating legal jeopardy.
Trump held decisive advantages across almost every demographic group and region and in every ideological wing of the party, the survey found. He led by wide margins among men and women, younger and older voters, moderates and conservatives, those who went to college and those who didn’t, and in cities, suburbs and rural areas.
DeSantis performed his weakest among some of the Republican Party’s biggest and most influential constituencies. He earned only 9 percent support among voters at least 65 years old and 13 percent of those without a college degree.
There are still six months to go before the primaries.
In interviews with poll respondents, a recurring theme emerged. They like Mr. DeSantis; they love Mr. Trump.
“DeSantis, I have high hopes. But as long as Trump’s there, Trump’s the man,” said Daniel Brown, 58, a retired technician at a nuclear plant from Bumpass, Va.
“If he wasn’t running against Trump, DeSantis would be my very next choice,” said Stanton Strohmenger, 48, a maintenance technician in Washington Township, Ohio.
Former US President Donald Trump's political action committee is expected to report that it has spent about $40 million in legal fees in the first half of 2023 to defend Trump and his advisers, among others, the Washington Post reported.
Elon Musk’s Unmatched Power in the Stars—NYT
The tech billionaire has become the dominant power in satellite internet technology. The ways he is wielding that influence are raising global alarms.
On March 17, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the leader of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, dialed into a call to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Over the secure line, the two military leaders conferred on air defense systems, real-time battlefield assessments and shared intelligence on Russia’s military losses.
They also talked about Elon Musk.
General Zaluzhnyi raised the topic of Starlink, the satellite internet technology made by Mr. Musk’s rocket company, SpaceX, three people with knowledge of the conversation said. Ukraine’s battlefield decisions depended on the continued use of Starlink for communications, General Zaluzhnyi said, and his country wanted to ensure access and discuss how to cover the cost of the service.
General Zaluzhnyi also asked if the United States had an assessment of Mr. Musk, who has sprawling business interests and murky politics — to which American officials gave no answer.
Mr. Musk, who leads SpaceX, Tesla and Twitter, has become the most dominant player in space as he has steadily amassed power over the strategically significant field of satellite internet. Yet faced with little regulation and oversight, his erratic and personality-driven style has increasingly worried militaries and political leaders around the world, with the tech billionaire sometimes wielding his authority in unpredictable ways.
Today, more than 4,500 Starlink satellites are in the skies, accounting for more than 50 percent of all active satellites. They have already started changing the complexion of the night sky, even before accounting for Mr. Musk’s plans to have as many as 42,000 satellites in orbit in the coming years. [continue]