Aug 10: E-Stories
Day 533: Unilever Pokrovsk UASitRep RUSitRep Moscow ZagorskOptics Occupation RUinflation Iran Biden Italy OTD2014 Allies Karin France A&P CEPA UKDef ISW MariupolGrozny Niland Soldatov
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
A group of activists went to Borodyanka in Ukraine, that experienced some of the most vicious bombing by Russia in the beginning of Russia’s full scale invasion, to send a message to Unilever’s CEO: Get out of Russia NOW.
Stories we’re following…
Update: Russian attack on Pokrovsk kills 7, injures 88. The number of people wounded in the Russian Aug. 7 strike against Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, has increased to 88, Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said on national television.
Official: 78 Ukrainian first responders killed by Russia's full-scale war. Since the beginning of the all-out war, 78 Ukrainian first responders were killed in Russian attacks while doing their job, the State Emergency Service's spokesman Oleksandr Khorunzhyi said on Aug. 8.
Russian soldiers have bombarded a kindergarten in the city of Kherson, injuring an elderly man, the Kherson Oblast Military Administration reports.
Ukraine Situation Report- August 9-General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
In the Kupyansk and Bakhmut directions, the Armed Forces of Ukraine repulsed the attacks of Russian forces, in particular, in the areas of Sinkovka and Ivanovka in the Kharkiv region, as well as Kleshchievka and Druzhba (Donetsk region);
In the Maryinka direction, the defense forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to hold back Russian troops in the area of Maryinka, Donetsk region;
The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions;
Aviation of the Ukrainian army inflicted 10 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment of the Russian troops.
Bihus found at least two instances of Russian artillery targeting emergency civilian water intakes set up after the Kakhovka Dam sabotage to restore water supply to local homes, incl. a case where they filmed a damaged pumping unit and traces of recent explosion in nearby trees.
Russian military affiliated channels report that heavy battles are currently ongoing for Pryyutne, a few kms west of Staromlynivka, and 100 km from Mariupol. The AFU has been sitting on the outskirts close to a week but is now reportedly actively attacking.
Ukrainian forces strike: Russia alleges shelling in Bryansk Oblast. Alexander Bogomaz, the Governor of Bryansk Oblast in Russia, claimed that the town of Bila Berezka had been shelled on the evening of Aug. 9. Another big fire in Russia, this time in Kurchatov in the Kursk region. Explosions in occupied Nova Kakhovka at a Russian base and a major fire near the city of Kursk in Russia.
Moscow mayor claims more drones shot down over city. Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin claimed that Russian air defense successfully targeted and eliminated two drones near the city's periphery on the night of Aug. 9.
Russian emergency services say an explosion at an optical plant in the city of Sergiyev Posad, about 50 kilometers outside Moscow, on August 9, killing one and injuring 45 people. Some are still under the rubble. Baza identified the site as the Zagorsk Optical and Mechanical Plant, which is part of Shvabe Holding. It produces missile protection for Ka-52 attack helicopters. sights, thermal imagers, laser rangefinders, and other similar products.. TASS said the blast happened in a storage area with explosive equipment, and that evacuations were under way. Others are reporting that it happened in the boiler room. An unexplained fire damaged the same Zagorsk plant in June 2022.
Reuters: Russia faces challenges in exporting its grain. Moscow is facing challenges in exporting its grain products, namely the lack of ships, rising insurance costs, and the unwillingness of Western companies to deal with Russia, Reuters reported on Aug. 8.
Behind the lines: ISW reports that “Russian occupation authorities continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of rehabilitation schemes.
Russian occupation authorities continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of rehabilitation schemes. A Telegram channel affiliated with the Kherson Oblast occupation administration reported on August 7 that 40 children from the Skadovsk raion of Kherson Oblast are undergoing a 21-day long “rehabilitation course” at the Raduga social rehabilitation center in Nalchik, Kabardino-Balkarian Republic.[63] Even if the children return to Kherson Oblast following the trip, the circumstances of their removal from an active war zone were likely sufficiently coercive to mean that they or their guardians could not have given full consent.”
National Resistance Center: New Wagner camp under construction near Ukraine's border. The construction of another camp for Wagner Group fighters has begun in Zyabrovka airfield in Belarus, Ukraine's National Resistance Center reported on Aug. 8.
Poland will send 2,000 troops to the Belarus border to support the border guard. It cited deputy interior minister Maciej Wąsik.
Interfax in Russia is reporting that Russian security forces have detained a man accused of sabotaging a gas pipeline in Crimea at the behest of Ukrainian secret services. It quotes the FSB saying the Russian citizen, born in 1980, “gave confessions about cooperation with the special services of Ukraine for the preparation and commission of sabotage and terrorist acts.”
Russia is facing its worst inflation uptick due to the falling value of the ruble since the start of the war. Officials are returning to command-and-control economic management in an attempt to keep prices down. Retailers told the authorities that as early as September, food prices, on which Russians spend on average every third ruble of their income, could go up. So far, prices are kept at the expense of commodity stocks that were purchased before the inflationary surge, but in the fall the situation may change, the Izvestia source notes. As a result of the meeting, it was decided to expand the practice of limiting the margin, which is set by retail chains, the press service of the Ministry of Industry and Trade reported on Tuesday evening.
Iran claims to have obtained the technology to develop a supersonic cruise missile, which is still in the testing stage, as reported on Wednesday by the semi-official Iranian news agency Tasnim. In April, the media reported that China, Russia and Iran were holding secret talks on supplying the Islamic Republic with a key chemical compound used to propel ballistic missiles. The media also claimed Russia signed a secret agreement with Iran to return enriched uranium.
Karin Kneissl: “I was forced to leave Austria, wasn’t allowed to work in France. Had to flee from Europe… People helped me to get to Russia… I speak 8 languages, you know. Now I learn Russian.” (Have fun! And I hope you took some other people with you.)
Ukraine thwarts Russian hack on military information system. Ukrainian special forces successfully thwarted a Russian effort to hack the military's combat information systems, the Ukrainian security service (SBU) announced on Aug. 8.
Over 110 investigations into military enlistment offices opened by Investigation Bureau since February 2022. The State Bureau of Investigation has announced that 112 cases regarding abuses by military enlistment offices have been brought to investigation since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022.
Reuters reports that the US has issued new Belarus-related sanctions on Wednesday, citing the Treasury department’s website. The sanctions target eight individuals, five entities and one aircraft, the website showed. The department also issued two general licenses related to Belarus. These follow new sanctions by the UK government yesterday on various states and entities that are aiding Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Reuters reports that prosecutors have arrested an official of the German military procurement agency whom they suspect of passing secret information to Russian intelligence, the federal prosecutor’s office said on Thursday. The man, a German national that the prosecutor’s office identified only as Thomas H., approached Russia’s consulate in Bonn and embassy in Berlin on his own initiative and offered his cooperation, it said. On one occasion, the man passed information obtained during the course of his work to a Russian intelligence service, it said.
August 9 protests in Belarus: “After brutal torture and rape, the Belarusian opposition left the Motherland. Many who escaped imprisonment gathered in Lithuania, but did not lose hope of returning. Three years of hope and despair. Do not lose patience and determination, Belarusian brothers.”—Linas Linkevicius, former Minister of Defence and Foreign Affairs, Lithuania.
Pentagon announces Biden has cleared F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots. Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh confirmed on Aug. 8 that U.S. President Joe Biden "has given the green light" to allow and support the training of Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets.
The former Supreme Commander of NATO's combined forces in Europe Philip Breedlove believes that the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets is slowing down because some countries are afraid of provoking Russia
Italy suspends 'golden visas' for Russians, Belarusians. Italy has suspended the Investor Visa program for Russian and Belarusian citizens, the country's Business Ministry announced on its website. The Italian government made the decision over a year after the European Commission recommended this measure.
More on those secondhand Leopard tanks: Freddy Versluys, CEO of the private defence company OIP Land Systems, told the Guardian that he sold 49 tanks to another European government, which he could not name due to a confidentiality clause. He said he also could not disclose the price. Versluys added it could be up to six months before they were on the battlefield in Ukraine. A source with direct knowledge of the deal said that the tanks were bought by a “major German defence player”.
Dutch PM vows to look into ways to strengthen Ukraine's air defense in a phone call with Zelensky. In a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky on Aug. 8, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said the Netherlands is "looking into what else we can do to strengthen Ukrainian air defenses" to protect civilians from Russian attacks.
PEN Ukraine: 25,000 English-language books to be donated to Ukrainian libraries. The writers' association PEN Ukraine reported on Aug. 8 that 25,000 English-language books will be donated to libraries across Ukraine, including those located near the front line or in recently-liberated territories.
Reuters: A former rebel leader and politician in Niger has launched a movement opposing the junta that took power in a coup, a first sign of internal resistance to army rule. Rhissa Ag Boula said in a statement that his new Council of Resistance for the Republic aimed to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.
China's consumer sector fell into deflation and factory-gate prices extended declines in July. Anxiety is rising that China is entering an era of much slower economic growth akin to the period of Japan's "lost decades".
Secret Trump memo laid out plan to overturn election
Federal prosecutors are portraying the memo, dated 6 December 2020 and written by Kenneth Chesebro, as a crucial link in how the Trump team’s efforts to keep him in power evolved into a criminal conspiracy, according to a New York Times report.
Chesebro, identified as “co-conspirator 5” in the federal indictment of Trump, reportedly argued that the plan would focus attention on claims of voter fraud and “buy the Trump campaign more time to win litigation that would deprive Biden of electoral votes and/or add to Trump’s column”. He wrote in the memo:
I recognize that what I suggest is a bold, controversial strategy, and that there are many reasons why it might not end up being executed on Jan. 6. But as long as it is one possible option, to preserve it as a possibility it is important that the Trump-Pence electors cast their electoral votes on Dec. 14.
The document, described by prosecutors as the “fraudulent elector memo”, provides new details about how the plan originated and was discussed behind the scenes. The memo show the plan was a criminal plot to engineer “a fake controversy that would derail the proper certification of Biden as president-elect”, prosecutors said.
A federal judge presiding over former President Donald Trump's trial on charges of trying to overturn the 2020 election has ordered his attorneys and federal prosecutors to appear in court on Friday for a hearing to help determine how evidence can be used and shared in the case.
Russia suspected as 'hostile actors' behind mass voter electoral register attack—ITV
The Russian state could be behind a mass hack in which tens of millions of voters could have had their personal information stolen.
Electoral registers - which contain details such as people's home addresses and phone numbers - were accessed for over a year by "hostile actors" who hacked the Electoral Commission's servers.
The Electoral Commission said it was “not able to know conclusively” what information was stolen but most of it is already publicly available and insisted the threat to British elections is low because of their paper format.
UK security service GCHQ was called in to mitigate the "complex cyberattack" and its former boss believes Russia should be the lead suspect.
Sir David Omand, a former director of GCHQ between 1996 and 1997, said Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime would be "first on my list of suspects" because of its track record on attempting to interfere with elections.
OTD 2014- The Little Green Men
Borogan & Soldatov, Retribution From the Skies Above Moskva City—Cepa
Let’s start with drones. All three ministries are directly involved in the Russian national unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) program. In April, Putin chaired a conference on the program. Among the participants were Maksut Shadayev, minister of digital development, Maksim Reshetnikov, minister of economic development, and Vasily Osmakov, first deputy minister of trade and industry. They sat alongside the head of the FSB and the deputy minister of defense and discussed government-guaranteed, long-term demand for drones, at least up to 2030. It is no secret that the Kremlin hopes to use these products against Ukraine.
Those three ministries are key actors in the Russian import substitution program. At first glance, this program has nothing to do with the military, at least officially. It is designed to help the economy survive the sanctions. But taking a closer look, it becomes clear that this program helps companies to substitute for sanctioned foreign microchips — and some of those chips end up in the missiles hitting Ukrainian cities.
Telecommunications development, which is supervised by the digital development ministry, has become a tool of subjugation and occupation since it’s responsible for the deployment of Russian operators’ networks in the occupied territories. Russian networks by law must have censorship and surveillance equipment installed, and this means that once deployed in Ukraine, its civilians fall under the gaze of Russian Big Brother. The ministry’s administrative staff will no doubt tell themselves that they are just implementing regulations, and following instructions and laws. All very legal.
Now they are scared because the war has come to their workplace. That may be seen as a success in Kyiv, but they will not be deserting their posts en masse.
Unfortunately, totalitarian regimes like Putin’s don’t work that way. Government employees in the Tower of Ministries may be terrified by the attacks, but the plain truth is that retribution delivered by Ukrainian explosive drones remains less likely than retribution from the FSB. [continue]
Grozny-Mariupol: cities correlated via Russian violence
Mariupol and Grozny will signed an agreement to become "sister cities" - Chechnya prime minister during his visit to so-called "DPR".
Russia leveled Grozny with earth in 1995. Mariupol - in 2022. Now the two cities will be called "sisters". Seeing this made my physically ill.
Programming note…
Ambassador Laurent Bili discusses France’s support for Ukraine against Russia’s full-scale invasion.
French Ambassador to the United States Laurent Bili sits down with Catherine Sendak to discuss the country’s role in fostering transatlantic cooperation and continued support for Ukraine. This discussion is part of CEPA’s “State of the Alliance,” a series bringing together thought leaders from Europe and North America to deliberate on the most pressing challenges facing allies and partners.