Aug 11: E-Stories
Day 533: Viazovska RUattacks ZNPP UAattacks Crimea UASitRep RUSitRep Occupation RUoccupation US CND Wagner UAHeritage Ecuador A&P UKDef Halushka NatResCentre Stanovaya KyivIndie BBC Duda MacKay
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Timofiy Mylovanov: “Ukrainian mathematician Maryna Viazovska has won the Fields Medal, a Nobel Prize for mathematics. She is the second woman ever to receive the medal. Maryna solved a 400-year-old sphere packing problem. Today she is teaching at a math summer school at the university KSE.
Her series of lectures covers the sphere packing puzzle for which she was warded the prize. The school is backed by XTX, and organized by the newly established International Centre for Mathematics in Ukraine. The participants are both in Warsaw through online connection and Kyiv. Ukrainian participants come from all over Ukraine from Lviv to Kharkiv, from Kyiv to Chernivtsi.”
Stories we’re following…
Over the past day, Russian troops shelled the territories of 10 Ukrainian oblasts, including Sumy and Kherson, the Situation Center of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported. In total, 131 communities and 88 infrastructure facilities were attacked.
Massive Russian drone attack destroys oil depot in Rivne Oblast. Russian forces hit Rivne Oblast, Ukraine, with a "massive" drone attack on Aug.10 that destroyed an oil depot in the Dubno district, Oblast Governor Vitaliy Koval reported via Telegram.
Russian missile strike against Zaporizhzhia kills 1, injures 11. At least one person died and 11 others were injured in a Russian missile strike against Zaporizhzhia on Aug. 10, local officials reported. The target of the Russian strikes (2 missiles) was the Reykartz Hotel.
The hotel also hosted a children’s camp. Many reporters stated they had stayed there along with UN International Atomic Energy Agency personnel, including agency chief, Rafaele Grossi. Ria Pizza in Kramatorsk and Druzhba hotel in Pokrovsk were hit not long ago. My friend who is a war reporter called me and said that there are now fewer places where reporters and international agency workers can stay to document what the Russians are doing to Ukraine.
Russian fired missiles on a residential quarter in Zaporizhye on August 9, killing at least 3 people, They were aiming at the Orthodox Church. Secretary of the Zaporizhye City Council Anatoly Kurtev just confirmed. According to preliminary information, two people died while there are also wounded. Kurtev said the church had been destroyed and about 15 high-rise buildings had been damaged. The authorities received requests from residents of at least 400 apartments to repair smashed windows and damaged balconies.
Noel Reports: Svitlana and Kristina, 19 and 21 years old, singing in Zaporizhye. An hour later, they were killed by a Russian missile.
The Ukrainian authorities are starting the evacuation of 37 settlements in the Kupiansk district in Kharkiv Oblast due to increased Russian attacks. The mandatory evacuation will include settlements close to the combat zone, Dvorichna and Petropavlivka, partly from the territories of Kindrashivska, Kurylivka and Kupiansk hromadas (a hromada is an administrative unit designating a town, village or several villages and their adjacent territories – ed.).
Ukrainian forces have recaptured the heights over Bakhmut and are successfully encircling Russian troops in the city, a defence minister in Kyiv has said. Hanna Malyar also warned of a “nightmare” situation further north after 12,000 civilians in the Kharkiv region were ordered to evacuate.
Polish president Duda: “Ukraine does not have enough weapons to change the balance in the war and gain the upper hand. And we know this because right now they are not in a position to launch a decisive counter-offensive against Russian troops. In short, they need more help,” Duda said. At the same time, he expressed the opinion that in qualitative terms, "Ukraine today has a much more modern military potential than Russia."
Times Radio interviewed Oz Katerji
Main power line fails at Russian-occupied Zaporizhye nuclear plant. Energoatom reported on Aug. 10 that the Russian-occupied ZNPP lost power from the main 750 kilovolt (kV) power line overnight. The plant was then connected to the 330 kV backup line instead. The risk of this backup power line failing puts the largest nuclear plant in Europe on the verge of a blackout. Number 4 reactor had been moved from a “hot” to a “cold” shutdown because of signs of a steam leak.
Interfax in Russia reports that in a statement the company who own the Zagorsk optical and mechanical plant in Sergiev Posad said it had suffered “significant damage”. Russian media reports that 12 people are considered missing as a result of an explosion. The explosion at the factory was not reported by the main Russian TV channels until late in their broadcasts. Monique: Ukraine has begun to strike industries that are directly involved in providing weaponry for Russia’s war effort. If Ukraine’s allies won’t provide air cover and long-range missiles to knock out Russian positions in Crimea and other areas of southern Ukraine, then it must take the war into Russia this way. Actually, Ukraine has every right to defend itself as it sees fit.
More than 26,000 prisoners in Russian prisons are involved in forced labor in 1,700 commercial organizations. Also, several thousand convicts from colonies-settlements are employed in these companies, the Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) reported. The prison department stressed that the practice of involving prisoners in forced labor is expanding and is becoming "an effective way to eliminate the shortage of labor resources."
11 drones intercepted over Sevastopol, Russia claims. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that air defense units destroyed 11 drones traveling toward the city of Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea on the night of Aug. 10. More drones shot down over Moscow. Two attack drones were intercepted en route to Moscow at 4 a.m. local time on Aug. 10, Mayor Sergey Sobyanin claimed via Telegram.
A fire reportedly broke out at the JSC Mozyr Oil Refinery, the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Belarus reported. A week ago, the Ukrainian SBU already warned for a large-scale provocation at this exact location. On August 6, SBU said it had obtained intelligence that testifies to the preparation of a large-scale provocation by the Russians "under a foreign flag" at the the Mozyr Oil Refinery.
Ukraine has announced temporary corridors for merchant ships going to and from Ukrainian ports, the Ukrainian Navy reports on their Facebook-page. They add that there is a military threat and mine danger from the Russian Federation throughout all routes. The specified routes will primarily be used for the departure of civilian vessels from the ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa and Yuzhnyi.
Behind the Lines: Russians have now taken possession of civilian companies and homes in the occupied territories, reports Hanna Malyar. In one case, a supermarket has been transformed into a prison, the area around it is fenced off with barbed wire. In Tokmak, the Russians have sequestered homes, and use them as detention centres. In Vasylivka, the occupiers took over a student dorm and use it as interrogation rooms.
Behind the Lines: Wounded Russian soldiers overwhelm health clinics in occupied territories, the National Resistance Center reported on Aug. 9. "At the same time, these hospitals provide virtually no services to the civilian population," the Center said. According to the Center's report, occupying Russian forces use district hospitals to treat their wounded soldiers until they make a partial or complete recovery. Only then are the soldiers transferred to facilities in Russian-occupied Crimea or in Russia. The Center said that only a small number of civilian residents are allowed to access treatment at these hospitals, and only as "cover" for the military use of the facilities.
Behind the Lines: The Russian occupiers plan to train future FSB officers and police officers in the seized universities of Bohdan Khmelnytsky State Pedagogical University and Dmytro Motornyi Tavria State Agrotechnological University. In these premises, the occupiers created a pseudo-university called MSU (rus. MGU), which, despite its posh name and free “education”, failed to recruit a sufficient number of students. Starting from the next academic year, the occupiers will train employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and have also introduced a speciality “special faculty of information protection”, which is a forge of personnel for the FSB, and offer exchange programmes to Russia.
Peace Talks: FM Kuleba said that Ukraine can only start negotiating with Russia after a full withdrawal from Ukraine, but not with Putin, Il Corriere della sera reports. "Putin has committed too many serious crimes. We will never see Putin and Zelenskyy at the same table."
Russia’s Ministry of Industry and Trade has proposed subsidizing companies tied to the defence industry which are in bankruptcy in order to maintain uninterrupted production in the conditions of the war against Ukraine. The corresponding government decree appeared on the legal information disclosure website, Kommersant drew attention. Through businesses, the Russian government will buy out the companies involved in Russia’s military production industries. Russia has increased financial support for defense industry enterprises, but state funding is not always used for the intended purpose.
Investors from countries that Russia considers “friendly” staged a sell-off of shares in Russian companies in July, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation said in its monthly Financial Markets Risk Review. According to the regulator, in a month "friendly" non-residents got rid of Russian securities worth 10.4 billion rubles. The volume of their net sales almost tripled compared with June and became a record since the beginning of the war. As a result, foreigners from "friendly" countries dumped four times more shares than all other categories of bidders combined, follows from the statistics of the Central Bank.
Solovyev wondering why the ruble is collapsing. Why’s he worried so much about the exchange rate? Will he be travelling to his sequestered Italian villa on Lake Como any time soon?
Visa-free travel between Russia and India has now been activated, Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov reports in an interview with Russia-24 TV channel. He noted that Russia has already launched a visa-free group exchange with China and Iran.
On August 9, St. Petersburg hosted the 27th meeting of the Russian-Chinese subcommission on nuclear issues. The parties discussed the progress of the implementation of current projects, as well as a promising agenda for cooperation in the field of the use of atomic energy for peaceful purposes, as per the official statement.
Minister: Ukraine will need at least $42 billion in foreign financial aid in 2024. Ukraine will need at least $42 billion in foreign financial aid in 2024 due to high defense and security expenditures, Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) in an interview on Aug. 9.
Ukraine designates Bacardi as 'international sponsor of war'. Ukraine's National Corruption Prevention Agency (NACP) added the world's largest private alcohol company Bacardi Limited to the "international sponsors of war" list on Aug. 10. The Bermudian company continues to do business in Russia during its all-out war against Ukraine.
President Biden intends to submit a supplemental funding request of at least $25 billion to Congress according to Bloomberg. The request will include ~$12 billion for disaster relief and $13 billion for defense funds, including assistance for Ukraine.
Canada slaps new sanctions against Belarus on three-year anniversary of 2020 elections. Canada announced new sanctions against Belarus on Aug. 9, targeting nine individuals and seven entities over their complicity in the regime's domestic oppression and support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Biden signs order limiting US investments in Chinese technology. U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order restricting investments in certain national security technologies in "countries of concern," including China, the White House announced on Aug. 9.
China facing deflation and other economic issues. According to official statistics released Wednesday, consumer prices had fallen by 0.3 percent over the last year after being stagnant for months. China is also facing enormous unemployment problems. The unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds hit a record 21 percent in June — though some experts believe it is actually even higher. It has set its aim at 5% growth, but that figure is in comparison to 2022 when it was still grappling with Covid. Economists have also tracked a huge decrease in foreign direct investment in China, likely both a result of covid-19 restrictions and economic gloom in the country but also the trade war initiated by the Trump administration against Beijing.
BBC News-Ecuador politician murder: Prison gangs in terror reign. Fernando Villavicencio, a candidate in the upcoming presidential election, was gunned down as he left the rally in the capital, Quito. "Here, we pay for democracy with our lives." Five years ago, the words Fernando Villavicencio shouted into a microphone at a campaign rally, just moments before he died in a hail of bullets, could have been dismissed as an exaggeration, a rhetorical flourish. How did Ecuador become a nation where democratically elected politicians are gunned down? The answer is gangs - and geography. [continue]
ECOWAS announced it has ordered the deployment of its standby forces to restore democracy in Niger, in a meeting of the society's committee in Abuja, Nigeria. The meeting was also attended by representatives of Mali, which supports the military junta in Niger. Earlier the junta leaders threatened to kill Mohamed Bazum, the current president of Niger, in the event of a military intervention.
The Russian Federation can use the “Wagnerians” to support an information op to put pressure on the EU—National Resistance Centre
According to information from the Belarusian resistance, a new camp for mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC is being built on the border with Ukraine in the village of Zyabrovka in Belarus, which already hosts 1000 Wagnerites.
In the future, the plan is to use them to simulate subversive activities on the border with the Chernihiv region.
It is also highly likely that the Wagner forces could undertake activities to support Russian and Belarusian information operations aimed at increasing pressure on European countries. The aim of this campaign is to force European countries to reduce their support for Ukraine by increasing fears of a military threat from Wagner forces. Accompanied by a robust information operation and narratives stoking fear, Wagner forces will seem ready to attack the European Union.
Poland wants to deploy 10.000 troops on the border with Belarus, Polish Defense Minister Blaszczak said. A total of 4000 of these will be directly placed at the border while another 6000 will be in reserve, improving their skills in garrisons in the east.
The Polish authorities are well aware of the information operations regarding Wagner’s presence in Belarus. In all likelihood, the Polish authorities are making a show of force to dissuade Russia on the chance it could undertake subversive operations by sending Wagner forces inside the EU, and as a way of displaying strength and determination for Poland’s domestic audience. Duda has called an election for October 11.
Tatiana Stanovaya, Putin’s Age of Chaos—Foreign Affairs
These events were unprecedented in contemporary Russia. And yet they do not seem to have ruffled the status quo; people continue their lives as if nothing had happened. To be sure, generals are now daring to complain more openly about the top brass. But the overall situation in the army remains stable, and to date the Russian government and military have not reshuffled or arrested any army personnel.
Don’t be fooled: this ostensible resilience to bad news and the seeming indifference to ongoing events are deceptive. It is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to sweep unwelcome developments under the carpet. The war has begun to change Russia, and profound internal shifts are likely underway—in Putin’s regime, in the elites’ perception of Putin, and in the public’s attitude toward the war. Indeed, the militarization of Russian life is empowering ultranationalist hard-liners in the elite, eclipsing an old guard of ideologues that the Russian public has begun to view as increasingly out of touch with the realities of the war. The perception of Putin’s weakening has further revealed the regime’s deep flaws: the habitual inclination of the authorities to underestimate domestic political risks, ignore long-term developments in favor of addressing immediate challenges, and refuse responsibility for the growing number of incidents on Russian territory linked to the war. [continue]
Russia’s attack on Ukrainian cultural heritage
Launched in February last year, Russia’s war against Ukraine has taken a toll on Ukraine’s culture. Russia has razed to the ground many museums and churches, destroying priceless works of art. So far, Ukraine’s Ministry of Culture has documented over 1,600 cultural facilities damaged or destroyed by Russian forces, but the actual number may be even higher.