Aug 13: Sunday Stories
Day 535: Zapo Kharkiv Sumy KryvyiRih KerchBridge Moscow UASitRep RUSitRep KozachiLaheri Berdiansk Belarus EU US Lunisi Lugovoy A&P UKDef ISW PichlerDisinfo Michta Weiss
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
You’ll remember a documentary by the Kyiv Independent about child abductions in Ukrainian occupied territory. Three families managed to get their children back thanks to an organisation—Save Ukraine. I couldn’t stop thinking about Now they’ve brought back five more children from Russian territory. In total, the organisation has returned 150 children—there are thousands still in Russia.
Stories we’re following…
Air Force: 3 Shahed drones shot down overnight in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukraine's Air Force reported on Aug. 12 that three out of five Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight were shot down by air defense in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. One policeman was killed, four police officers were injured. There are also wounded among the civilian population.
Minister: Russian forces hit Orikhiv with guided bomb, killing 1, injuring 12. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko wrote on Aug. 12 that Russian forces struck the city of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with a guided bomb, killing one person and injuring 12 others.
August 12: Russia launches missile strike on Kryvyi Rih. Explosions were reported in Kryvyi Rih on Aug. 12 which Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Serhii Lysak later confirmed were from a Russian missile strike. Russians also launched missile strikes against Zaporizhye, Sumy and Kharkiv.
ISW Situation Report in Ukraine:
The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs is struggling with significant personnel shortages, especially in occupied territories in Ukraine.
Ukrainian counteroffensive operations appear to be forcing the Russian military to laterally redeploy Russian forces defending in western Zaporizhia Oblast, indicating that the Ukrainian effort there may be significantly degrading Russian defenses.
The lack of Russian operational reserves means that the Russian command will have to conduct more lateral redeployments if they wish to reinforce certain sectors of the front in the future.
ISW: Ukrainian forces make significant advances in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid continued counteroffensive. Geolocated footage published on Aug. 11 and analyzed by the Institute for the Study of War confirms that Ukrainian forces reached the northern outskirts of Robotyne, located 10 kilometers south of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
For the first time in this war Ukrainian forces not only successfully crossed the Dnipro River but also the Konka River behind, establishing a permanent bridge head on the south/east side near Kozachi Laheri. All Russian attempts to dislodge Ukrainians failed and the Russian recon unit initially investigating the Ukrainian landing was most likely destroyed.
Noel Reports: Barricades, toblerone pyramids, roadblocks and anti-tank mines in the Melitopol direction. Russian milblogger Alexey Zhivov exposed how Russian defensive positions look like. "The front line of our positions. Next is the Armed Forces of Ukraine," he added.
Russian state media: 20 drones downed over occupied Crimea. Russian state media claimed on Aug. 12 that 20 Ukrainian drones had been shot down overnight in occupied Crimea.
Kaliningrad Oblast Aug 12: Su-30 crashed during celebration of the Russian Air Force Day. The entire crew died due to a malfunction of the air frame.
More explosions on the Kerch Bridge: officials have stopped traffic on the bridge. Mayor Aksyonov reports that two Ukrainian missiles were shot down by air defense. The Russian MoD claims that Kyiv attempted to strike the bridge with an S-200 anti-aircraft guided missile – not two drones. ”The Ukrainian missile was timely detected and intercepted in the air by Russian air defense systems,” the defence ministry said on Telegram. Locals who were near the beach are reporting seeing something hit the bridge.
An explosion has rang out in occupied Berdiansk “in the vicinity of the port” on the afternoon of 12 August, Ivan Fedorov, Mayor of Russian-occupied Melitopol on Telegram.
Chonchar Bridge, Crimea: On August 6, Russian appointed head of the occupied Kherson region Vladimir Saldo said that damage to the Chonhar bridge would be restored within days. On August 12, Saldo comes back to his words, stating that it could take up to 1 or even 2 months due to 'technical difficulties'.
Belarus Up-date: The Polish Foreign Ministry has reacted to the unexpected statement of the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, about his alleged desire to improve relations between the two countries.
"If Belarus wants to have good relations with Poland, then the path to this is very simple. Stop the attacks on our border, release Andrzej Poczobut and other 1,000 people from Belarusian prisons," Deputy Minister Jabłoński said.
"We do not have and have never had hostile intentions towards Belarus. We do not intend to maintain bad relations with Belarus. On the contrary, we would like them to be as kind as possible, but the Belarusian authorities behave as they do, and they are fully responsible for the fact that we have bad relations. Belarus is just a country that is hostile to Poland," the Polish Deputy Foreign Minister added.
Bloomberg: Russian oil breaks price cap, revenue soars in July. Russia's crude oil surpassed the price ceiling set by the Group of Seven (G7), leading to a significant rise in income from oil exports, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 11.
The Russian henchman who is wanted for poisoning Alexander Litvinenko has advanced cancer from the radioactive substance used in the attack. Andrey Lugovoy, who is wanted for murder by British police, has reportedly developed prostate cancer following the hit in 2006. Litvinenko, a former Russian federal security services and KGB officer and outspoken critic of President Vladimir Putin, died in hospital after ingesting Polonium-210, a rare radioactive substance.
The EU has delivered Ukraine 223.800 shells under the first part of a plan to provide a million artillery rounds to aid Ukraine's fight against Russia.
"EU member states have delivered about 223.800 artillery ammunition, long-range self-propelled, high-precision ammunition, as well as mortar ammunition and 2300 missiles of various types," EU spokesman Peter Stano said.
Pentagon: US to further increase 155 mm ammunition production. The U.S. plans to increase its production of 155 mm shells, bringing it to 80,000 per month next year, Pentagon Press Secretary Pat Ryder said on Aug. 10. The statement comes amid Ukraine's growing need for NATO-standard ammunition, which is used with West-provided artillery.
White House considers training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 in US. The White House said on Aug. 11 the United States is “certainly open” to training Ukrainian F-16 pilots on U.S. soil. However, this process might take some time.
Italy will be restoring the Cathedral of the Transformation in Odesa, Ukraine, after it was destroyed by a Russian missile attack.
Greece has become the 14th country to join the G7 declaration of support for Ukraine, which is to serve as a framework document for future security guarantees, President Zelenskyy on Telegram, as reported by European Pravda.
French Doctor Karim Lunisi, 70, has cycled more than 4,000 kilometres from France to Ukraine to raise funds to purchase generators and first-aid kits for Ukrainians. Lunisi has visited Lviv and is heading to Kyiv, reported the Lviv City Council.
In June 2023, Karim Lunisi travelled from France to Ukraine via Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Czechia and Poland.
After the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Lunisi tried to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a volunteer, but he was not accepted due to his age and insufficient knowledge of English.
Lunisi decided to help through charity. The main goal of his bike trip is to raise funds to purchase generators and first-aid kits for the military.
"I came here on behalf of all people who want peace, and with my visit, I want to remind the whole world that the war in Ukraine continues. It is important to inspire people to help your country by your example", Karim Lunisi notes.
Switzerland is roiled by controversy after getting called out by a U.S. government agency for falling for a plot orchestrated by notorious Trump Tower lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya. “Switzerland is fighting for its reputation,” wrote Swiss newspaper of record Neue Zürcher Zeitung. The fallout comes after the U.S. Helsinki Commission wrote to Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggesting that three Swiss nationals—two ex-prosecutors and one former law enforcement official—should be sanctioned by the U.S. “These individuals have abetted Russian nationals sanctioned under the Magnitsky Act,” the letter read. [continue]
The US managed to convince Egypt not to send rockets to Russia but has so far failed to persuade them to arm Ukraine instead. Although Egypt has not rejected the request, Egyptian officials said that they have no plans to accommodate it.
Assassinated Ecuador candidate mourned by family and public. Ecuador is reeling from the murder of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio. He was honored on Friday at a funeral mass and public memorial in Quito, after the attorney general's office charged six suspects in his death. Villavicencio was no stranger to threats and intimidation from powerful figures. Ecuador goes to elections on August 20.
Andrew A. Michta: Pivot to Asia is wrong
I've made this point already, but it's worth repeating: Any US strategy that disconnects the Atlantic theater from the Pacific theater will hurt US credibility and ultimately fail. The argument that we should focus on Asia at the expense of Europe is strategic myopia.
Instead of talking about rebuilding our defense industry and expanding the Joint Force the flavor of the day in DC seems to be "China first" on the premise that any other policy "doesn't reflect reality." My question: Why is securing our national interests somehow unrealistic?
I framed my argument as to why "pivoting to the Pacific" misses the point in this Wall Street Journal piece. I would add that those who advocate that we abandon Europe should be asked what kind of a global end state do they envision as a result of their strategy?
Since 2012 the "pivot to Asia" concept has entered our political lexicon; it now has now a constituency promoting it. But there is not much new in this debate-we have periodically heard arguments that the US is in decline. Time and time again those voices were proven wrong.
The "Asia-first" approach is rooted in the belief that America is in imminent decline. That is simply not true. By any measure, the United States has the resources it needs to counter China and Russia simultaneously. It has alliances that serve as our force multipliers.
So, let's put aside the declinist arguments for "pivots" and "realistic goals," and work instead towards rebuilding America's defenses, re-shoring our industrial base, and most of all affirming yet again that when mobilized around a common goal our democracy will prevail.
Dietmar Pichler: Subtle propaganda works better
In this video, the Russian propagandists demand from other countries to protect the occupation of Ukrainian territories by Russia in accordance with international law. Dietmar Pichler explains why this narrative is so pervasive in the West in the thread below. It is clear that the referenda run by Russia in Ukrainian occupied territory are not legal and as such not recognised by the international community.
The Russian information war many of us refuse to see.
The widespread belief in narratives like "NATO provoked Russia" or "Ukraine attacked Donbas" is a huge success for the Kremlin. Russian propaganda demonizes Ukraine to diminish support for it.
Subtle propaganda is more effective than the sensational stories we encounter on Russian TV. Only a limited audience is receptive to claims of 'Bioweapons in Ukraine' or 'Satanists', but ideas like 'NATO expansion' and 'Western Imperialism' resonate with much larger crowds
Certain "Western Intellectuals," "Scientists," can play a significant role in the spreading of subtle propaganda. These individuals even condemn the Russian invasion (superficially) before they start blaming Ukraine, "the West," Biden, anybody else than the Kremlin.
Similar arguments we can hear from huge parts of the so-called "peace movement." They defend Russia and criticize Ukraine as much as possible without getting easily spotted as pro-Russian propagandists.
What these people have almost always in common is that they never mention the occupation regime.
They never mention looting, rapes, reeducation, Russification, deportation, torture etc. because this contradicts their false narrative of "no fighting - no suffering."Russian narratives about the events in 2014 in Donbas are widespread. Terms like "ethnic conflict" "civil war" were even used by mainstream media. A society that understands the "big picture" about what actually happened in 2014 is important to create resilience against Russian disinformation.
For some reason, many of us refuse to acknowledge reality as long as these individuals, at the very least, superficially condemn the invasion or make statements like "I am against any kind of war" without even mentioning the aggressor.
Propaganda isn't just about what people say; we must also note what they leave out.
The occupation regime, genocidal rhetoric on Russian TV, or, in the case of some left-wingers, their failure to address Kremlin collaboration with the far right and the facist nature of modern Russia.The year 2014 plays a significant role. Since then, Russia has been spreading false narratives about Ukraine to the world, and we not only failed to counter them but also ignored the importance of this matter entirely. Now, this is backfiring significantly.
As mentioned before, I believe that blunt, ridiculous propaganda statements like "Ukrainian satanists" are not only aimed at the domestic audience; they also serve the purpose of diverting our attention from more subtle, intricate propaganda that isn't as easily noticeable.
Russian propaganda is more than just fabricated content, trolls, and "Z" symbols. There are several tailored "storylines" for each target group, and it appears that we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg.