Aug 15: E-Stories
Day 537: Odesa Kherson Zaporizhye Bakhmut DniproLeftBank Saponkov ruble occupation RUdomestic ShoiguAfrica US Dutch Typhoons GER POL Greece A&P Niland Sumlenny Symoroz KingPutin PBSHaas
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian forces launch 15 drones and missiles at Odesa at 1:00 am local time, injuring 3. The governor of the region on the Black Sea said falling rocket fragment had resulted in fires breaking out. “Windows in buildings were blown out by the blast wave,” Oleh Kiper wrote on the Telegram messaging app. The drones were aimed at the centre of Odesa, and damaged over 200 buildings.
Overnight on August 13-14, Russia attacked Ukraine. Air defense managed to shoot down all targets, 15/15 Shahed drones and 8/8 Kalibr cruise missiles, and one helicopter (unknown type) was shot down near Bakhmut. The nearby port city of Mykolaiv was also targeted, with air alarms sounding throughout the night.
Ukraine’s general staff said they had “partial success” around the tactically important Robotyne area in the Zaporizhzhia region, a Russian stronghold that Ukraine needs to retake in order to continue pushing south towards Melitopol. “There are liberated territories. The defence forces are working,” Gen Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of Ukraine’s southern forces, said of the southern front.
Up-date early morning Aug 14: Hanna Malyar, Deputy Minister of Defense, said that Ukrainian Forces not only managed to have success near Urozhaine, but also south and southeast of Staromaiors'ke. She is most likely referring to the area east of the Mokri Yaly river. Russian milblogger Romanov commenting on the possible retreat of Russian forces in this limited area to more defensible positions behind the first line of defence.
Hanna Malyar, Deputy defence minister, also talked about the Bakhmut sector of the line of contact:
“In the Bakhmut sector, three square kilometres (1.2 square miles) were liberated last week. In total, 40 square kilometres have been liberated on the southern flank of the Bakhmut sector,” she added.
The Ukrainian forces are fighting along a 1000 km-long line of contact. In some areas they’re counter-attacking, trying to break through Russian lines in the western part of Donetsk Oblast and gain a foothold to the east of the village of Staromayorske, Reuters reported on Aug. 13, citing Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed proxy in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
The Russian forces have failed to regain lost positions in 3 directions. The Russian military has unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions in the Bakhmut, Shakhtarske and Zaporizhzhia directions during the day, Ukraine's General Staff of the Armed Forces reported on Aug. 13.
ISW: Pro-war bloggers see Ukrainian gains as proof of flagging Russian morale.
Pro-war Russian bloggers are complaining of poor Russian morale and personnel failures after Ukrainian troops made gains in Urozhaine, Donetsk Oblast, the ISW wrote in its Aug.13 report.
Criticisms of Russian brigades in Donetsk arose after Ukrainian forces advanced in the area of Urozhaine on Aug. 10. One author claimed that Russian soldiers "prematurely withdrew" because "the unit's personnel were drunk," the ISW reported.
Russian military blogger Roman Saponkov, using an example of a small channel that boasted about Russian success in Urozhaine, explains how Russian informational campaigns try to shut down any author that attempts to tell the truth, and deliberately spread "positive news".
"I'm afraid there are risks that soon we will hear arguments like 'the left bank of the Dnipro is not convenient for defense,' although during the withdrawal from Kherson, it was declared as more advantageous for defense," he adds.
A Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter was shot down by the Ukrainian forces at 5:00 am near Bakhmut as confirmed by the General Staff.
Ukrainian forces hit Yur'ivka close to Mariupol. It is believed to be near Volna, reports the advisor to the installed mayor of Mariupol, Andryushchenko. The target was Russian manpower and equipment, which has been eliminated.
Maria Avdeeva: “Amidst Russia's escalating assault on Kupiansk, mandatory evacuation was announced on August 9. Already 248 people, incl 90 children, evacuated. These intensified attacks seem to align with approaching one-year mark of Russia's major retreat in Kharkiv Oblast.”
InformNapalm: Russia lied about ship inspection in Black Sea. InformNapalm, a Ukrainian open-source intelligence outfit, reported on Aug. 13 that the Russian authorities had lied about a Russian ship firing warning shots in the Black Sea earlier on the same day.
Ukraine has condemned what it called “provocative” Russian actions, a day after a Russian warship fired warning shots at a cargo vessel in the Black Sea. The ministry said in a statement:
The ministry of foreign affairs of Ukraine strongly condemns the provocative actions carried out by the Russian Federation on August 13 in the Black Sea in relation to the Turkish dry cargo vessel ‘Sukru Okan,’ which was en route to the port of Izmail,
The Russian Navy grossly violated the UN Charter, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and other norms of international law. These actions exemplified Russia’s deliberate policy of endangering the freedom of navigation and safety of commercial shipping in the Black Sea.
Why is the emergency meeting of the Bank of Russia board of directors important?
The ruble is losing significant value on exchanges with the dollar and euro. This means that anything the Russian government or citizens buy will cost more. The Russian economy is in inflation mode for various reasons, one of which is because it is producing more in its military industries. In terms of exchange rates, the Bank of Russia intervened at the beginning of the war to uphold the value of the ruble with its reserves. Those reserves may not be as plentiful as before.
Microsoft Suspends Extending Licenses For Companies in Russia. U.S. software giant Microsoft will not renew licenses for Russian companies from September 30, the U.S. company said in a letter sent to Telecom Daily Agency in Russia on August 11. Microsoft stopped sales in Russia in March 2022 after the start of Moscow's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February, but continued to issue licenses for the products that had already been sold. Hundreds of Western companies left Russia after the start of the war.
RFE/RL: Car owners in Crimea urged to stock up on fuel. The network of TPP petrol stations in Simferopol and Alushta has started warning its customers about a possible shortage of petrol. Regular customers of these petrol stations told our correspondent that at the end of last week they received SMS-messages warning about the possible shortage of some brands of petrol and urging them to stock up. Earlier we reported that in Kerch the cost of fuel at petrol stations increased again. In July, the Russian head of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, admitted that there were problems with fuel in the city.
Airlines began to massively delay flights due to aircraft breakdowns. Due to the sanctions, the fleet of foreign airliners in Russia is gradually falling into disrepair due to the inability to receive quality service and purchase the necessary spare parts. One of the airliners that is experiencing acute problems is Red Wings, which stranded holiday makers on Aug 12 and asked for a replacement airplain to pick up its passengers.
Sergej Sumlenny: This is St.Petersburg, Russia: "Stand up, Russia, holy power, your god is always with you! For Motherland! We'll trial warlords, half-humans, half-beasts, for Dasha(Dugina), for Kerch Bridge, for the new Russian Holocaust, worldwide, where god rules, there is no place for nazism".
The Russian Minister of Defence Shoigu will receive nearly 400 billion rubles (about $4 billion) for his African project to replace Wagner, Russian media write. Reportedly, Shoigu's minister's entourage is already preparing various legal loopholes for doing business in Africa.
Mercedes-Benz has disconnected Russian dealers from its software, Izvestia reports. Access to Mercedes' online systems, which are used to perform maintenance and identify problems, has already been terminated. The publication's sources warned that BMW has also restricted access; there is no official confirmation from the company. The lack of official software can increase repair and maintenance times, as well as create problems with updates for new cars, alarms and car key coding, experts explained.
Putin will visit Türkiye in the coming days, Turkish newspaper Milliyet reports. In the run-up to Putin's visit, diplomacy to restart the grain initiative has intensified.
China Defence Minister Li Shangfu will visit Russia and Belarus on a six day trip and will attend the 11th Moscow International Security Conference on August 15. This will be the second visit of Shangfu to Moscow after Russia started a full-fledged war against Ukraine.
Russian occupation collaborators, who frequently travelled to the occupied territories, say that Ukrainians do not welcome them in occupied territories. They don’t stay the night because they say they fear someone will attack them. “How do we become brotherly nations again?” - a voice behind the camera asks them. “It’s not possible,” the Russian volunteers reply. What is surprising is not that Ukrainians don’t want to live under Russian occupation, but that these two thought they were welcomed.
National Resistance Center-Behind the Lines: New forced passportization strategy targets teens. Russian authorities in occupied regions of Ukraine are threatening to withhold high school certificates from students who do not agree to accept Russian passports, the National Resistance Center reported on Aug. 13.
SBU identifies 15 Ukrainians organizing illegal elections in occupied Luhansk. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on Aug. 14 that investigators had established the identities of 15 people directly involved in collaborating with the occupying authorities to organize sham elections in Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast.
Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State: Today we are announcing the next package of security assistance to aid Ukraine as it defends its territory and protects its people. This package, which is valued at $200 million and is being executed from previously authorized Presidential Drawdown Authority, includes air defense munitions, artillery rounds, anti-armor capabilities, and additional mine-clearing equipment.
The Dutch Defense Ministry said it scrambled two F-16s early Monday when two Russian bombers were tracked flying toward Dutch airspace as Russia launched an overnight attacks against Odesa, Ukraine. In a statement, the ministry said:
This doesn’t happen often, but today’s incident demonstrates the importance of rapid deployment. The F-16s are on standby 24 hours a day and can take off within minutes and intercept an unidentified aircraft.
Britain said its Typhoon fighter jets intercepted two Russian maritime patrol bomber aircraft in international airspace north of Scotland on Monday, within Nato’s northern air policing area.
Please note: Russian incursions into NATO airspace occurs every once in a while, especially in the Baltic member state’s airspace.
Ukrainian journalists identify Russian officers involved in July strikes on Odesa. Ukrainian journalists identified Russian commanders allegedly involved in P-800 Onyx missile strikes on Odesa on July 19 and July 23, damaging the city's UNESCO heritage sites. Demchenko Volodymyr Oleksandrovych, 18.01.1966, born in Kharkiv, head of a unit of the armed forces of the Russian Federation or other military formations. call sign "Shaman". In March 2022, he ordered the execution of a severely wounded prisoner of war during the occupation of the village of Vilkhivka in the Kharkiv region.
Christian Lindner, German’s finance minister, said on his country stood “shoulder to shoulder” with Ukraine, as he arrived in Kyiv for his first visit since the start of the war. Lindner said he would hold “very concrete” talks with Ukrainian officials on how the German finance ministry can support Ukraine now and in the future, AFP reports. The surprise visit comes as Germany is under growing pressure from Kyiv to send long-range Taurus cruise missiles to boost its struggling counter-offensive against Russian troops. The German government has so far resisted the pleas, on concerns that the missiles could reach Russian territory and widen the conflict.
Minister: Drone fundraising campaign raises $1 million within hours. "Operation Unity," a state campaign to raise funds for 10,000 drones for Ukrainian forces, has raised over $1 million in the first few hours after launching on Aug. 14, Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced.
Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace has signed a contract with the British-led International Fund for Ukraine (IFU) for the supply of anti-drone systems, or Counter Uncrewed Aerial Systems (C-UAS), to Ukraine. The delivery consists of several CORTEX Typhon systems, which are designed to counter a wide range of air threats either by causing physical damage or otherwise disabling the threat.
Kathimerini reports that the Greek arms production company Hellenic Defense Systems is negotiating to participate in the program for the production of 155-mm shells to support Ukraine and replenish the EU's stockpiles.
Russians who distributed the materials for Wagner were detained in Poland. According to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Mariusz Kaminsky, two Russians were detained who distributed propaganda materials of the "Wagner" group in Krakow and Warsaw. The stickers read "We are here." Join us" and a QR code that leads to a Russian-language recruitment site. The Russians were charged, including espionage, and arrested.
Statement from Oleh Symoroz
We continue the fight against the sponsors of the terrorist country. We launched a powerful promotional campaign against one of the largest taxpayers in Russia, one of the world leaders in the food and household chemicals market - Unilever. We have already turned the attention of all the world's leading mass media to this situation. I am in correspondence with the new CEO of the company, which has the prospect of a positive decision for our country, but so far it indicates more that Mr. Hein Schumacher is trying to sit on "two chairs", and it will not work. After all, the company and he personally are already suffering heavy reputational losses, and this is only the beginning. Unilever's flexible and ambiguous position on exiting the Russian market will cost them dearly. Think better and faster, Mr. Hein!
Western parts in Russian missiles—PBS News Hour
Russia's economy depends on revenues from oil exports and American sanctions have been tuned up to choke its war effort against Ukraine. But there’s one area important to the Kremlin’s military output that has so far avoided scrutiny. It involves Haas Automation, a high tech American manufacturer that may be flouting export controls. Simon Ostrovsky reports with support from the Pulitzer Center.
Larry King interviews Putin in September 2000
Knowing what we know now, this interview is surreal and quite an eye-opener.
The first seconds are Putin perfect. King asks about the nuclear submarine that sunk—the K141 Kursk—on August 12, 2000. The entire crew of 118 died. His reaction was chilling. He just smiled and said, “It sunk.” They continue to touch on many issues, including the up-coming presidential election between Bush and Gore, non-proliferation talks, and his insistence that Russia would ‘accept’ US decision-making in all areas. Putin also gives a history lesson on the war in Chechnya.
King asks about the arrests of media mogul Berezovsky, and Guzinsky and if Putin will “stop the opposition”. “Opposition? On whose side?" responds Putin, and then dismisses claims that these cases pertain to freedom of the press.