Aug 17 Buonasera Mag
Day 175: Ammo depots in Crimea, EU visa ban, Black Sea activity, UA Independence Day, Lviv, RU cyberattack, UA grain, North Korea, Turkey, China. Articles: Ilves, WaPo, Davis, Sweeney, Avdeeva
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
To be verified: huge blast near Russian command post in the center of Melitopol.
Russian base in Nova Kakhovka destroyed by ZSU. 12 Russians killed, lots of wounded. Footage posted to Telegram by the State Border Guard Service showed numerous burnt-out trucks, collapsed buildings, and debris.
Zelensky’s video address: We need to do everything, so Russia is tired of fighting. He called on Ukrainians to continue all efforts to tire Russia out, politically, economically, and militarily, until it can't continue waging its war in Ukraine.
"Our strategy is to destroy the logistics, the supply lines and the ammunition depots and other objects of military infrastructure," Podolyak told The Guardian on Tuesday. "It's creating a chaos within their own forces," he added.
Zelensky: EU visa ban for Russians is the only way to influence Putin. “This is the only way to influence Putin. Because this person has no other fear but the fear for his life. And his life depends on whether he is threatened by his internal population or not. Nothing else is threatening to him," President Zelensky told WaPo.
Russia has appointed a new commander for its Black Sea fleet, according to state media agency RIA Novosti. Vice-Admiral Viktor Sokolov had been presented to a meeting of the fleet’s most senior figures in the Sevastopol in Crimea.
Black Sea activity: The surface vessels of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet continue to pursue an extremely defensive posture, with patrols generally limited to waters within sight of the Crimean coast.
Russian missiles hit two Ukrainian port cities on Wednesday, about 24 hours after an ammunition depot and another Russian military airfield were apparently attacked in occupied Ukrainian Crimea. The strikes allegedly hit a recreation center and several other buildings in Odesa, and the Petro Mohyla Black Sea National University in Mykolayiv.
Ukraine to prepare for possible attacks on Independence Day. According to Yuriy Ihnat, the spokesman for Ukraine's Air Force Command, intelligence data shows that Russia is building up military capacity in the Belarusian territory.
A record breaking number of Russians are crossing the Crimea bridge into Russia 38,297 cars transited along this route yesterday alone, as Ukraine warns that more strikes on Crimea's infrastructure and military installations loom.
At least one Ukrainian official is suggesting the Crimean bridge could be destroyed soon because, as one key presidential advisor in Kyiv, Mykhailo Podolyak, tweeted Wednesday, "this bridge is an illegal object, permission for the construction of which was not given by Ukraine. It harms the peninsula's ecology and therefore must be dismantled. Not important how—voluntary or not."
Russian cyberhackers launch a major three hour attack on Ukraine's state nuclear power company Energoatom website. Telegram was Russia's mobilization tool against Energoatom. A channel called "Popular Cyberarmy" launched 7.25 million bots against the website. No major damage occurred.
Lukashenko approves draft agreement on military-technical cooperation program with Russia until 2025. "The program of military-technical cooperation between Belarus and Russia until 2025 provides for the implementation of a number of measures, including joint research and development work to create new and modernize existing types of weapons and military equipment, as well as dual-use products," - explained in the press service.
Five more ships of grain are expected to depart Ukraine's Chornomorsk port soon, Reuters reports from Kyiv, which would add to the 24 ships that have left "Ukrainian ports so far during the 17 days of the grain corridor operation" brokered by the United Nations, Ukraine, Russia, and Turkey.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Turkey has stepped in to scoop up Russian business while Ankara's NATO allies decidedly do not take the same path, according to a new analysis from the Financial Times.
Mayor of Lviv Andriy Sadovyi: “It’s likely that we’re in for a difficult winter. It’s logical - there can’t be anything simple in a country that fights for its independence. But we have to be prepared for everything.” He added that the city’s authorities have worked on an action plan for any emergencies “that may arise as a result of an enemy attack.”
More than 40% of Ukraine's education facilities cannot open in September because of Russia's invasion and the damage it's brought, according to the Kyiv Independent.
The leaders of Ukraine, Turkey and the UN are set to meet to review the grain export deal in Lviv on Thursday. UN sec-general Guterres, president Zelenskiy and president Erdoğan will also discuss “the need for a political solution to this conflict” and the situation at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
North Korea and the Russian-backed separatist Donetsk will develop “equally beneficial bilateral cooperation”, Pushilin said in a letter to Kim Jong Un, North Korean state media reported on Wednesday.
In a joint press conference with Serbian Presdie Vučić, Stoltenberg said: “The seizure of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by Russian forces poses a serious threat to the safety and the security of this facility, raises the risks of a nuclear accident or incident, and endangers the population of Ukraine, of neighbouring countries, and of the international community.”
Inna Sovsun: Olaf Scholz states that they provided Ukraine weapons, which was available. But why are 100 Marders, 188 Leopard-1 & about 300 Leopard 2A4S owned/stored in Rheinmetall's warehouses & you do not give an export license which will allow the company to sell it to Ukraine?
The Net Freedoms Project reported August 15 that Russian authorities have opened nine criminal cases and 51 misdemeanor investigations against independent candidates and perceived rivals ahead of the September regional elections.
Chinese troops will travel to Russia to take part in joint military exercises led by Russia, China’s defence ministry has said. Last month, Moscow announced plans to hold “Vostok” [East] exercises from 30 August to 5 September, saying that some foreign forces would also participate. China said the exercises would include forces from India, Belarus, Mongolia and Tajikistan.
Putin's number one propagandist Solovyev says it's time to nuke and send Russian troops to any country that bans Russians.
A growing number of Wall Street banks are willing to trade Russian bonds that were once viewed as untouchable as reported by Bloomberg. JPMorgan, BofA are among banks moving Bback into Russian bond trading.
Diana Manasir, daughter of Jordanian-born, Russian billionaire Ziyad Manasir, has shared several photos of herself on Instagram over the summer, in which she can be seen visiting Mayfair, Belgravia, Regent’s Park and the Mandarin Oriental Spa in Knightsbridge.
Estonia began removing a monument commemorating Soviet soldiers during World War II. “We will not afford Russia the opportunity to use the past to disturb the peace in Estonia,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said. Russians rallied around it in recent weeks, protesting the plans to remove it. The T-34 tank was located in Narva and had its barrel symbolically pointing west.
Lithuania is moving to limit visas issued to Russians, allowing only humanitarian visas, and Finland will cut the number of visas issued to Russians at 10% of the current amount.
Former President Ilves of Estonia —a little thread on visas, Germany and its role in Europe:
Germany’s behavior since even before the Ukraine war has been to do as little as possible, promise as little as possible and delay what it’s promised as long as possible.
On the tourist visa issue, with little logic — dissidents don’t need a tourist visa to get to Europe. EU gives out visas on humanitarian grounds — Scholz has rejected the ban.
This is especially true given that Scholz knows full well the Russians already renounced the EU-RU Visa Facilitation Agreement on April 4. But still, no matter, ever the faux humanitarian, moralische Supermacht.
How to make sense of this behavior? Rather than subscribe to paranoid Molotov-Ribbentrop theories (though Schröder’s and the Ostausschuss’ slimy record might make you believe in them)
Rather, I think Germany is trying to position itself as an “honest broker” — to show Russia it’s not a “crazy Russopohobic East European” or a “war-mongering Ami”, in the hope that Russia will take it seriously and give Germany future benefits.
Perhaps as a ploy for more gas this might work, but Germany has, thanks to its both long term and short term self-interest, mercantile duplicity, posturing and dithering lost any possibility of being taken seriously by the rest of Europe.
Every since Kohl favored Russia over the Zwischenländer who suffered most from Germany in WW2 (first and foremost Poland and Ukraine), Germany’s policy has been to accomodate — and gain from — Russia first, deal with others later.
But now, 18(25) years since the EU and NATO enlarged, Germany is no longer the center of Europe. Its warnings of "moral hazard" regarding Greece have redounded. Now it's the hazard. The Franco/German motor has turned out to be as credible as VW’s Diesel exhaust numbers.
Nothing will deter Germany’s self-appointed, self-interested quest to be that broker. But it will broker with Russia alone. The rest of us will not play along. Just a lonesome Pas de Deux.
Khurshhudyan, Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion—WaPo
On a sunny October morning, the nation’s top intelligence, military and diplomatic leaders filed into the Oval Office for an urgent meeting with President Biden. They arrived bearing a highly classified intelligence analysis, compiled from newly obtained satellite images, intercepted communications and human sources, that amounted to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war plans for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Olga Tokariuk Thread: debate about the WaPo article
A big debate is unfolding in Ukraine over the comments by president Zelensky for this piece. There's criticism of his decision to keep reassuring Ukrainians the invasion will not happen until the last moment. People are asking if more preparation would have saved lives.
While it is understandable that the economic fallout from panic would have been huge, questions are asked re Zelensky's pre-war communication. Why did he tell Ukrainians in mid-January they will go on barbecues in May? He must have known by then it certainly won't happen.
More criticism is related to why territorial defense units were not formed quickly before the invasion, defence budget not upped, infrastructure, hospitals weren't prepared. Why no evacuation was advised, some ask - but this is tricky: how and where do you evacuate millions?
I wouldn't want to be in Zelensky's shoes in these times, nobody would. How do you know what decision turns out to be right or wrong? History will judge him and it's too early to jump to conclusions.
What can be said with confidence though is that the period of Ukrainians' 90% support of Zelensky, that followed the Russian invasion, is nearing the end. People start asking questions and express criticism. Ukraine is a democracy, after all. And it doesn't mean it's not united.
Davis, Putin World Declares ‘Our Agent Trump’ Is Irreversibly Screwed—The Daily Beast
Concerns are swirling within the Kremlin and splashing onto the screens of Russia’s tightly controlled state media. Moscow’s grueling invasion of Ukraine and Washington’s potential designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism are at the top of the list—but the upcoming U.S. elections are likewise causing some heart palpitations.
John Sweeney, War Diary Day 175 Trouble for the Kremlin
John Sweeney has been reporting from Kyiv and various locations throughout Ukraine since almost Day 1 of Russia’s full-scale assault on Ukraine. His vlog is entitled, “War Diary”, and he has since published a book, “Killer in the Kremlin”, which I’m getting through now and can reccomend whole-heartedly. Olga and I will be talking to John very soon on Kremlin File.
Pokalchuk, Opinion What Amnesty got wrong in Ukraine and why I had to resign
On Aug. 4, Amnesty International issued a report that accused the Ukrainian army of violating the laws of war by placing military bases close to civilian infrastructure. The report triggered a wave of public outrage worldwide and across Ukraine. For me, the report’s deepest flaw was how it contradicted its main objective: Far from protecting civilians, it further endangered them by giving Russia a justification to continue its indiscriminate attacks. That’s why I resigned as head of Amnesty International’s Ukrainian office. Many of my colleagues followed.
Maria Avdeeva reports…
NYT, Six Weeks of ‘Hell’: Inside Russia’s Brutal Ukraine Detentions
It was a particularly dangerous time for a military-age man in Russian-occupied northern Ukraine, where Russian troops were losing ground before a ferocious Ukrainian counterattack this past spring. That was when soldiers from the occupying forces seized a young auto mechanic while he was walking in his home village with his wife and a neighbor, blindfolded him, bound his hands and shoved him into a bus.