Aug 17: E-Stories
Day : GrainAttack Urozhaine Bakhmut RUSitRep CrimeaBridge Zidko EU Komi RUjournos BelarusChina Iran ruble NorKor Olympics Trump Linkedin NATO A&P UKDef DeepState EconomistPOWs Trickett VSquare Kenyon
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
The Russian occupation forces have called for “early elections” in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. These are illegal.
Stories we’re following…
Associated Press: Russia resumed its targeting of grain infrastructure in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region, local officials said on Wednesday, using drones in overnight strikes on storage facilities and ports along the Danube River that Kyiv has increasingly used for grain transport to Europe after Moscow broke off a key wartime export deal through the Black Sea. Odesa governor Oleh Kiper said the primary targets of Russia’s overnight drone bombardment were port terminals and grain silos, including at the ports in the Danube delta. Air defenses managed to intercept 13 drones, according to Kiper.
Ukraine said the first cargo ship to use new Black Sea shipping lanes had exited a southern port despite threats from Russia that its navy could target vessels leaving the country. Ukraine’s infrastructure minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said in a statement:
Ukraine proposed this route in its appeal to the International Maritime Organisation (IMO).
The corridor will be primarily used to evacuate ships that were in the Ukrainian ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdenny at the time of the full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation.
Latvian Railways proposes exporting Ukrainian grain via Baltic ports. Ukraine could export up to 1 million tons of grain per year through Latvia's ports on the Baltic Sea, Rinalds Plavnieks, the CEO of state-owned Latvian Railways, said on Aug. 15.
The Ukrainian forces have liberated Urozhaine, Hanna Malyar, Deputy Defence Minister of Ukraine reports on Telegram.
"Urozhaine has been liberated. Our defenders are consolidating their positions. The offensive continues."
Andrii Kovalov, Spokesman for the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, said Ukraine’s Defence Forces were continuing to conduct offensive operations on the Bakhmut, Melitopol and Berdiansk fronts. Kovalov said that Ukrainian soldiers are using artillery to fire on detected Russian targets and are carrying out counter-battery operations.
Commander Syrskyi on the situation near Kupyansk:
"Due to the complication of the situation in the Kupyansk direction, most of the day I worked in the units that lead the defense on the approaches to the city. The enemy is trying to break through the defenses of our troops every day, in different directions, with assault squads consisting mainly of prisoners, with the aim of blocking and later capturing Kupiansk. A number of important decisions were made.”
If necessary, everyone will go to war, because it is the duty of every man to defend his country," said Chernev, deputy head of the Defence Committee. The MP stressed that if Ukraine faces a real threat of losing its statehood, everyone will go to war. We currently have the resources to deter the Russians in the east and south of Ukraine.
"It all depends on how long this war will last and how many resources will be used by the Russian Federation. The fourth stage of mobilisation implies that all men go to war, and currently the second stage of mobilisation is underway in Ukraine," he said.
NATO calls Ukraine's statement about giving up part of its territories in exchange for joining the Alliance a "mistake", Radio Liberty reports. Earlier on Wednesday, NATO Secretary General Stefan Jenssen clarified that his statement "was part of a larger discussion on possible future scenarios in Ukraine". "I should not have said that. It was a mistake," he added.
Russia tries to conduct cross-border raid in Chernihiv Oblast. Ukrainian forces prevented two Russian sabotage groups from crossing the state border into Chernihiv Oblast, the Joint Forces Commander Serhii Naiev reported on Aug. 15.
The video released today by Ukrainian intelligence of the July 17, 2023 Crimean bridge attack clearly shows that no defenses of Russia are being activated. The bridge appears essentially at the mercy of other attacks.
Vasyl Malyuk, the head of the agency, told CNN the drone, called “Sea Baby”, was developed internally and that two were packed with 850kg warheads when they exploded and damaged the road and rail bridge on 17 July. Two people were killed in the attack.
Defense Ministry: Russian forces in east regroup, decrease frequency of attacks. The number of Russian attacks along the eastern front line has decreased as Russia seeks to regroup and restore its forces, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said on Aug. 15.
National Resistance Center: Russia preparing provocation at Kursk nuclear power station. Russia is preparing to stage a provocation at its Kursk Nuclear Power Plant involving the evacuation of some of the local population, Ukraine's National Resistance Center reported on Aug. 15.
Reuters reports that the Lithuanian government has decided to close two of the country’s six border crossing points with Belarus due to “geopolitical circumstances”, weeks after Russian Wagner Group mercenaries took refuge in the country.
Russia may partially reinstate capital controls to stem a slump in the ruble, reports Bloomberg. “Capital restrictions will also damage nascent supply chains that Russia is trying to build to avoid sanctions,” an expert warns in the story.
The Russian Central Bank is considering introducing an obligation for exporters to sell all earnings in foreign currency to save the ruble—an obligation that Putin initially introduced at 80%, but was later revoked.
Total hypocrisy: "Healthy people are afraid to come to Europe because of perversions," says Sergey Naryshkin, head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service. Naryshkin's wife Tatyana is not listening to her husband, and drives around Paris in a Mercedes from the Russian embassy.
Politico: General Sergei Surovikin has been removed from his leadership role in Moscow’s war on Ukraine and is under house arrest, according to reports circulating among Russian military bloggers and media. The VChK-OGPU blog, which is considered close to Russia’s security forces, reported late Sunday that Surovikin is now “under a kind of house arrest” where he can’t leave the apartment he is being kept in, but has been permitted visitors, including several of his subordinates.
Wagner's recruitment attempts recorded in Latvia. Latvia's State Security Service found direct and indirect invitations to join the Russian mercenary group Wagner on the internet, media outlet Delfi reported on Aug. 15.
According to the Financial Times, the US asked Iran to stop supplying drones to the Russian Federation in exchange for easing sanctions, as part of discussions on a broader "unwritten agreement" between Washington and Tehran to de-escalate tensions, Financial Times
Elisa Ferreira, the EC’s commissioner for cohesion and reforms said:
“The decision to cancel the originally envisaged cooperation with Russia and Belarus through our Interreg programmes is the result of the brutal war of Russia against Ukraine.
“I am glad that the funds we had initially planned for this cooperation will now benefit the EU’s programmes with Ukraine and Moldova. This will help strengthen collaboration between EU regions and local stakeholders with Ukrainian and Moldovan partners.”
Denis Sharonov, the former agriculture and consumer market manager of Russia’s Komi Republic, fled to the U.S. and requested political asylum after he “started getting signals” that it would be dangerous for him to remain in Russia, the TV network RTVI reported on Tuesday, citing the minister himself.
A new investigation published by the independent outlet The Insider examines a series of poisoning attacks targeting Russian journalists and activists in Europe.
In October 2022, Elena Kostyuchenko, a journalist for Novaya Gazeta and Meduza, was poisoned in Munich, and Irina Babloyan, who works for Ekho Moskvy, was poisoned in Tbilisi. In May 2023, Natalia Arno, the president of the Free Russian Foundation, showed symptoms of poisoning.
While The Insider doesn’t usually publish materials about poisoning attacks until the perpetrators are identified, its journalists decided to make the information it has public, with the victims’ permission, in order to warn Russian activists who leave the country of the threat they might face abroad. [continue]
On Monday, Lukashenka appointed KGB officer, Mihail Hlushakou, to head the National Historical Archives. The former director was fired 1 year ago for political reasons. On Wednesday, the KGB detained at least 7 archive employees, including deputy directors and heads of departments
Male migrants who have received a Russian passport do not always voluntarily register with the military, so it is necessary to synchronize both processes. This idea was put forward by the head of the Council under the President of the Russian Federation for the development of civil society and human rights (HRC) Valery Fadeev, who is quoted by TASS. Fadeev recalled that, in accordance with Russian law, every foreign citizen who has received Russian citizenship is required to register with the military within two weeks after registration at the place of residence. This requirement applies to all men, including those with health problems, and not just those who are liable for military service.
China has ramped up its purchases of oil from Iran, replacing barrels from Russia that are becoming more expensive and above the price ceiling set by the West. In August, China imports 1.5 million barrels per day from Iran, a record volume in at least the last 10 years, Bloomberg reports citing Kpler data. The new prices for oil from Russia are less and less popular with its key buyers, including not only China, but also India. Since mid-May, oil exports from Russia to Asia have fallen by 25%, and their volumes - 2.6 million barrels per day as of the end of July - have become the lowest since the beginning of January.
The US said that Russia would be violating UN resolutions if it reaches an arms deal with North Korea, after the two countries’ leaders called for greater cooperation. Patel highlighted that Russia was relying on some of the world’s most ostracised nations, North Korea and Iran, to support its “war of aggression” against Ukraine, AFP reports. He added:
Our information indicates that Russia is seeking to increase this type of military cooperation with the DPRK [the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea].
Kira Rudik, a Ukrainian MP and the leader of the liberal Golos party, said Ukraine will boycott the Olympic Games if Russia and Belarus participate in the competition. Rudik also rejected the “myth” that “sport is out of politics”, saying the Russia has killed 340 athletes and coaches. These claims have not been independently verified. This comes as a Russian missile destroyed a sports facility in Dnipro on Monday.
Minister: Sweden preparing new defense aid package for Ukraine. The Swedish government has proposed a new military aid package for Ukraine worth 3.4 billion Swedish Krona ($314 million), Defense Minister Pål Jonson said on Aug. 15, cited by national broadcaster SVT. The package reportedly includes ammunition and spare parts for Stridsfordon 90 combat vehicles and Archer artillery systems, as well as trucks and demining equipment.
North Macedonia joins G7 declaration on Ukraine’s security guarantees. North Macedonia has become the 15th country to formally join the G7 security guarantees declaration, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on Telegram on Aug.15.
Yermak: Russian missiles used for Aug. 15 attack have 30 foreign components. The Kh-101 cruise missiles that Russia used in the morning attack on Ukraine contain about 30 foreign-made chips, Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak said on Aug. 15. The missiles were manufactured by Russia in April this year, he added.
Western official suggests Ukraine could exchange territory for NATO membership. Stian Jenssen, the NATO secretary general's chief of staff, has proposed that Ukraine cede part of its territory to Russia in exchange for NATO membership in order to end the war, the Norwegian newspaper VG reported on Aug. 15.
Monique: I read the VG article, and it is the only publication that put out the information. Other outlets commented on Jenssen’s statements in the VG article. There is no indication from any sources at NATO that this is their position—NATO has stated publicly that it is Ukraine that will decide what the terms of negotiation will be. Just a reminder as well that there are over 30 NATO member states.
The Chinese government, facing an expected seventh consecutive monthly increase in youth unemployment, has suspended release of the information. That decision could exacerbate the concerns expressed by investors and executives who say ever-tightening government control of information is making it harder to do business in China.
China’s youth unemployment rate has doubled in the last four years, a period of economic volatility that began with the “zero Covid” measures imposed by Beijing that left companies wary of hiring, interrupted education for many students and made it hard to get the internships that had often led to job offers.
The Georgia Indictments and Trump’s reaction
Trump now faces 91 felony counts and the possibility of standing trial in four separate cases before next year’s elections. He has denounced the indictment, saying on social media that he would release an “irrefutable” report that he asserted would prove his claims of election fraud in Georgia.
“The official Republican Party apparatus, which had been distancing itself from Trump, rallied behind him after his first indictment,” said my colleague Jonathan Swan, who covers Donald Trump for The Times. But, he added, with the Georgia case, other defendants may feel less secure sticking by him — not least because presidents cannot dismiss state charges. In Georgia, Trump cannot pardon himself or anyone else in Georgia because a specific Commission has this duty.
How Russian prisoners of war see Putin’s invasion—The Economist
Andrey was in prison for murder in Russia’s Ivanovo region, north-east of Moscow, when army recruiters came by and offered him a good salary and a record wiped clean in exchange for six months’ service. Two weeks after arriving at the front he stepped on a mine, lost his foot and was saved by Ukrainian troops. “If I had known the consequences of joining, I would not have done it,” he says dryly. Now he is reading a crime thriller in a prisoner-of-war camp near Lviv, hoping he will be exchanged soon.
Andrey’s chances are good. After Russian soldiers are captured, they move through a series of detention centres before arriving at this pow camp. Visitors are asked not to reveal its exact location. Arrival here means that being exchanged is the probable next step, unless interrogation by Ukraine’s intelligence services implicates the pow in a war crime. Some prisoners ask the Ukrainian authorities to delay their exchange until after their military contracts have expired so that they are not compelled to fight again. A few ask not to be returned at all; but then they have to remain in custody until the war is over, unless they volunteer to fight in the anti-Putin Russian militia that Ukraine sponsors.
According to Mr Yatsenko, the types of prisoners passing through the camp have varied. When the 2022 invasion began, the arrivals were mostly soldiers from Donetsk and Luhansk, the two territories of Ukraine which came under Russian control in 2014. In the second wave there were a lot of mercenaries from the Wagner group. Now he says, roughly one-third of the pows are jailbirds like Andrey, who were recruited into so-called Storm-Z penal military units, a third are men who have been mobilised, and a third are regular soldiers.
In the Lviv camp many of the Russian pows look far older than their years. Many of those recruited from prison have been ill and weak and “it is very difficult to believe they can have been useful except as artillery meat,” says Mr Yatsenko. The Russian army began recruiting in prisons early in the year as its relations with the Wagner group deteriorated. But he says that it seems that Wagner had already taken the fittest prisoners. He says most Russian PoWs spend on average “months” in Ukraine, but many Ukrainians coming back from Russia have been there for more than a year. Up to a third of the Ukrainians who return have been registered as missing because Russia shares no information with Ukraine about its prisoners. [continue]