Aug 18: E-Stories
Day 540: Belarus Mykolaiv UASitRep RUSitRep BlackSea NATO Odesa RUrecruitment Naryshkin RUprop SarkoZ US GER Allies Georgia A&P Lubiakova GeoConfirmed UKDef WarMapper DW Sardarizadeh Vogel FSBLondon
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Three years ago, Belarus civil society took to the streets in hundreds of thousands to protest Lukashenka’s stolen election. Lukashenka doubled down by arresting the protesters, and calling in the Russian OMON forces to quash the Belarusian’s demands for another election. I watch these events closely. All of the activitists and journalists in Belarus that had spoken with Western legacy media and think tanks dedicated to Russo-Belarusian affairs were subsequently arrested.
Hanna Lubiakova recalls those days:
“I cried on the streets of Minsk when I saw the sea of people, hundreds of thousands, marching to show that they were against the regime. Protests took place all over the country. Months later, Lukashenka brutally dispersed rallies. Repression only escalated.”
Stories we’re following…
Reuters reports that US has allowed Denmark and the Netherlands to transfer F-16s to Ukraine.
"I am writing to express the full support of the United States for both the transfer of F-16 fighters to Ukraine and the training of Ukrainian pilots by qualified F-16 instructors," wrote Anthony Blinken in a letter to two officials, a copy of which was seen by Reuters.
Air Force: Ukraine downs 13 kamikaze drones overnight. Ukrainian forces eliminated 13 Shahed-136/131 kamikaze drones launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force reported on Aug. 16. Of the total number, 11 drones have been shot down over Odesa Oblast and two over Mykolaiv Oblast, local officials said.
During the day, 24 combat engagements took place between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Russian troops.
“During the day, the enemy launched four missile strikes, 37 airstrikes, and 27 MLRS attacks on the positions of Ukrainian troops and populated settlements. As a result of the Russian terrorist attacks, civilians were killed and injured. Residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure objects were damaged. Twenty-four combat engagements took place during the day,” the report reads.
ISW: Ukrainian troops advance as Russia cracks down on war images. Ukrainian counteroffensive forces advanced in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts while the Russian government proposed a ban on images of Russian military activity, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its Aug. 16 report.
"Ukrainian troops were successful further to the south from the recently liberated settlement of Urozhaine," Spokesman of the General Staff Andrii Kovalev said. A Russian ka-52 attack helicopter near Robotyne was also destroyed.
Russian milblogger, War Gonzo, reports that the AFU made progress in the gray zone near Robotyne and Verbove. Confirming additional presence we saw earlier in other Russian footage. The AFU also conducted reconnaissance missions in force near Dorozhnyanka, opening up another possible axis of attack
Monique: please note that Robotyne and the area directly south of it feature heavily entrench Russian fortifications.
Fighters with the 3rd Separate Special Purpose Regiment named after Prince Sviatoslav have released footage showing the destruction of three pieces of military equipment of the Russian invaders, including a Zhitel jamming station, a technical support vehicle with personnel, and a tank, according to the regiment's press service announced this on Facebook.
Ukraine has disabled 5 Russian landing crafts since invasion began. Ukrainian forces have already put out of action five large Russian military landing ships since the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine's Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said on a TV channel Freedom on Aug. 15. Pletenchuk added that prior to the full-scale war, Russia was reinforcing its Black Sea Fleet under the guise of exercises, but this option is no longer open.
Politico: Moscow risks sparking a direct war with NATO by intercepting ships in international waters and seeking to impose an economic stranglehold on Ukraine, NATO's former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Ex-U.S. Admiral James Stavridis, is warning. Stavridis slammed the tactic as "tantamount to piracy," with the Kremlin going to greater lengths to undermine trade between Ukraine and the rest of Europe.
"Russia's actions in the international waters of the Black Sea create a real risk of escalating this to a war at sea between NATO and the Russian Federation," said Stavridis. NATO, he went on, "is not going to provide all the weapons and money for Ukraine, only to watch Russia strangle their economy with an illegal blockade."
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg assured that the Alliance's role is to support Ukraine. He assured that "NATO will support Ukraine until it wins the war against Russian aggression." He also rejected the previous words of his colleague Jenssen about territorial concessions to Ukraine in exchange for membership in NATO.
A civilian cargo vessel has left Ukraine’s southern port of Odesa, Kyiv has said, despite warnings from Russia that its navy could target ships using the Black Sea export hubs. The announcement raises the spectre of a standoff with Russian warships, after Moscow pulled out of a key deal last month brokered by the UN and Turkey, which guaranteed safe passage for grain shipments from three Ukrainian ports.
Russia’s government will hold off on stiffening restrictions on the movement of capital and instead prepare recommendations for exporters to coax them into surrendering more of their foreign revenues to help stabilise the rouble. Following a meeting on Wednesday between President Vladimir Putin and top officials, authorities are now crafting informal measures of capital control, according to three people familiar with the discussions.
UK Defense Ministry: Russia deploys domestically-produced drones based on Shaheds. Russia has almost certainly started to deploy home-produced drones based on Iranian Shahed kamikaze drone designs, the U.K. Defense Ministry said in its latest intelligence report on Aug. 16.
Monique: Russian production of drones and other weaponry requires Western tech components. When the Ukrainian units dedicated to studying Russian drones and weapons pull them apart, they find that 70-80% of the components come from Western tech producers—companies like Haas and Texas Instruments to name just two. This problem is being discussed and the Economic Security Committee of Ukraine has sent reports to US and EU authorities mapping out how these parts are able to get to Russia.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed to strengthen relations with Russia so the two countries could continue to “smash the imperialists’ arbitrary practices and hegemony,” according to a state media report. Kim made the promise in a letter to Putin on Tuesday, the anniversary of Korea’s liberation from Japanese colonial rule.
ISW: Wagner insiders say Russian Defense Ministry lied about commander transfer. Insider sources from Russia and Belarus cast doubt on the Russian Defense Ministry's claim that Wagner Group commanders are being transferred to the Redut private military company, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its Aug. 15 report. Redut is a mercenary organization closely affiliated with the Russian Defense Ministry. According to the ISW, the dismissive response of Wagner insiders to the Redut rumors points to "a continued interest in undermining" Russian Defense Ministry affiliates.
National Resistance Center: Russia escalates humanitarian crisis in occupied territories. Russia is deliberately escalating the humanitarian crisis in the occupied parts of Ukraine to make the local population more dependent on the occupation authorities, the National Resistance Center reported on Aug. 16. The report noted rising prices of basic goods, namely food, coupled with the decrease in production and sales at enterprises controlled by Russia.
Media: Russia sentences Ukrainian soldiers to over 20 years in prison. A Russian-controlled court in occupied Donetsk Oblast sentenced three Ukrainian soldiers to more than 20 years in prison, media outlet Hromadske reported on Aug. 16, citing the Russian military prosecutor's office.
Meduza: “if you have not served, you are not a [Russian] citizen.” Over a 100 foreigners, already Russian citizens, were taken directly from the factory where they work to a military enlistment office following a raid by St. Petersburg police.
RFE/RL: A young Tajik migrant says hundreds of Central Asian workers were "forced" to fight in Ukraine alongside the notorious Russian mercenary group Wagner late last year.
The 22-year-old Karim said he arrived in eastern Ukraine in November last year after being hired by a Russian company to dig trenches in Luhansk, a Ukrainian region that has been almost completely occupied by Russian forces since 2014.
"I saw an online job ad that offered about $60 a day to dig trenches in Luhansk. When I called the number in the advertisement, they told me to come to Moscow," Karim said. They were taken to the front.
"They used excavators to dig the trenches. Our job was to put duckboards to cover the bottom of the trenches," said Karim, describing the work the Central Asians performed. The construction of the trenches was completed on November 20, Karim said.
"No one among us agreed to join the war. Then they forced us at gunpoint to board buses. We asked where they were taking us but they said, 'We're going, that’s it,’" he added. [continue]
An new LLC with the name “Wagner Group” has been registered as an “educational” organization in the Belarusian Unified State Register of Legal Entities, the Telegram channel Rotonda reported on Wednesday. The independent Belarusian outlet Zerkalo noted that the organization was registered on August 4 in the country’s Asipovichy District and that its address is in the village of Tsel, where Wagner mercenaries set up a training camp in the days after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aborted rebellion.
The son of the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergey Naryshkin, lives in Budapest and has a residence permit in Hungary, reports the investigative journalist Sergei Yezhov. Naryshkin's son is registered in the center of Budapest on Bécsi ut. The owners of the house are linked to Hungary's pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
According to Direkt36, the wife of the son of the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Svetlana Naryshkina, and his two daughters also asked for a residence permit in this country. Since 2013, it is possible to obtain a residence permit in Hungary by investing in Hungarian bonds through a company authorized by the Hungarian authorities.
General Staff: Russia to stage military propaganda video. Russia is preparing to shoot a propaganda video about an alleged defeat of so-called "Ukrainian saboteurs" in Kherson Oblast to boost flagging morale, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on Aug. 16.
"Amid the decline of the combat spirit of Russian occupation forces, the enemy command succeeds more often in staging their successes," the General Staff said.
Austrian TV used two video fakes in its report about mobilization of Ukrainians. ORF TV channel’s correspondent in Ukraine released a footage showing SBU severely detaining a Russian agent for serving a draft notice
Shayan Sardarizadeh: A look at how we debunked two viral false posts about the wildfires in Maui, Hawaii. Misinformation about Hawaii fires has racked up tens of millions of views online and continues to get traction.
A French intelligence official leaked information about the payments former French president Nikolas Sarkozy received from the Kremlin. In 2018 Sarkozy has probably received €300K to make a conference in Russia where he flattered Putin. In 2019 Tracfin revealed that Sarkozy had signed a consulting contract with a Russian firm for €3 million.
The Ukrainian state-backed initiative “I Want to Live” is now offering to include Russian anti-war political prisoners in future POW exchanges with Russia, “with the possibility of providing asylum in Ukraine and E.U. states”
Finance Ministry: Third of state budget in 2023 used to pay soldiers. Around one-third of the state budget for 2023 so far – almost Hr 520 billion ($14 billion) – has been used for military personnel expenditures, Ukraine's Finance Ministry said on Aug. 16., referencing data from the State Treasury Service.
Monique: Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, I had the chance to speak with Lt Col (Retd) Glen Grant, formerly with the British Army on this issue. At the time, he said that based on his experience, if we were going to war with Russia, we would have to allocate a full year’s budget to fighting the war. These numbers aren’t surprising to me.
The US has sanctioned three entities accused of seeking to facilitate arms deals between North Korea and Russia as Washington tightens its restrictions on support for Moscow’s war in Ukraine. The US treasury department said in a statement that Russia was continuing to use up munitions and lose heavy equipment in Ukraine, forcing it to turn to its small pool of allies, including North Korea, for support.
Germany has delivered two more IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine, the Kyiv Independent reports. The German government announced on Thursday the delivery of another military aid package to Ukraine, including two IRIS-T air defence systems and about 4,500 rounds of 155 mm ammunition.
Baltic countries join G7 declaration on Ukraine's security guarantees. The governments of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia simultaneously joined the Group of Seven's (G7) declaration on security guarantees for Ukraine on Aug. 17.
Romania has confirmed its readiness to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters. "We will host the future regional training center for F-16 pilots, a center that will serve Romanian, allied and Ukrainian pilots equally," Romanian President Klaus Iohannis.
On Wednesday, Ukraine and Romania agree to open new border crossing. The Ukrainian government has approved a draft agreement with Romania to create a new border crossing in Ukraine's western Zakarpattia Oblast.
Finland builds up Europe's largest nuclear emergency stockpile. Finland is building up a reserve of emergency supplies in case of a nuclear emergency in northern or eastern Europe after receiving funding from the European Commission, Finland’s Interior Ministry said on Aug. 16.
Czech Republic sanctions Russian weapons oligarch, family members who reside in Prague. The Czech Republic announced on Aug. 16 that it had sanctioned Russian oligarch Boris Obnosov, the head of one of Russia's key missile manufacturers, as well as his daughter and son-in-law, who live in Prague.
What is an unindicted coconspirator: it’s someone mentioned in an indictment or criminal complaint that hasn’t been charged with a crime but who conspired to facilitate the commission of a crime with the person who was charged. This does not mean they can’t be charged at a later date. Many times they are.
Collins: “I'm told that Rudy Giuliani traveled to mar-a-lago in late April on a mission to make a personal appeal to trump to pay his legal bills… They argued it was in Trump’s best interest to do so but apparently it fell on deaf ears.”
Monique: I was waiting to see how long it would take for the Trump indictments to financially weigh on Agent Orange and the co-cospirators. The cost of these cases goes into the millions. He’s also running a presidential campaign. Will the banks step in with funds or is the Trump brand mud? I can think of a few foreign countries that could help in this process and I hope that the authorities are keeping an eye on this aspect of Trump’s businesses and dealings.
Why is Fulton County, Ga., district attorney, Fani Willis’s ingeneous?
Her case also provides other important complements to the federal matter: Unlike Mr. Smith’s case, which will almost certainly not be broadcast because of federal standards, hers will almost certainly be televised, and should Mr. Trump or another Republican win the White House, Ms. Willis’s case cannot be immediately pardoned away. It offers transparency and accountability insurance. As she said in her news conference on Monday night, “The state’s role in this process is essential to the functioning of our democracy.”
How do they do it?
Ukraine is defending itself, seeking victory, and in the midst of missiles and attacks, cleaning up the corruption that is still present in its institutions, and trying to govern the country. I cannot fathom the guargantuan daily effort it must take for the government, military and civil society to do this and keep their focus.
President Zelenskyy’s morning post gives us an idea of what the government is dealing with on a daily basis: their immediate needs and long-ish term aims:
Daily selector. We are constantly monitoring the supply of equipment and ammunition, as well as the pace of our own production. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defence have been instructed to work with partners to ensure that the next defence packages contain exactly what is needed.
Intelligence reports on the enemy's tactical and strategic plans and the state of its military-industrial complex. Preparing the energy system and air defence for winter.
Elimination of the consequences of Russian shelling of civilian targets, evacuation from the Kupyansk district. Assistance to the victims, construction of new housing in Kherson and Kyiv regions.
Operation of the grain corridor. The first one has gone. We are preparing the next steps.
Russian ‘asset’ used Homes for Ukraine lives in London flat linked to second suspected FSB agent- iNews
A suspected Russian intelligence asset whose family used the UK government’s Homes for Ukraine scheme is living in London at an address linked to another suspected FSB agent, i can reveal.
The Ukrainian businessman is suspected by the FBI of being a foreign agent for Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), according to a secret cache of intelligence documents seen by i.
He was able to travel to London after fleeing Ukraine at the start of the war, and his family then joined him through the official UK refugee scheme.
i can now reveal that he is residing at a luxury London property linked to several members of Ukraine’s pro-Russian Communist party and another alleged FSB agent.
A company registered at the address is owned by a second Ukrainian, who i can reveal is a close relative of a politician who reportedly worked for the FSB while holding a position in Ukraine’s government during the pro-Russian presidency of Viktor Yanukovych.
A cache of leaked documents accused the former minister of being an “active FSB operative”, working with the Russian government.
A UK security source, speaking to i anonymously, said the Communist Party of Ukraine was “fully controlled by Russian intelligence” and therefore the company director’s relative and his links to the FSB “are pretty much guaranteed.” [continue]
Programming note
Russian Hybrid Warfare, Agents of Russian World, Imperial Ambitions & Aggression
Orysia Lutsevych - Deputy Director of the Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House, on Russia’s attempt to destroy Ukraine as an independent country. At stake are the future of global security and the preservation of the core principles of international relations embodied by the United Nations.