Aug 19 Buonasera Mag
Day 177: ZNPP, overnight UA strikes, UN, Erdogan, Prytula Foundation, Macron call, FSB, Montecarlo Donetsk-N Korea. Articles & posts: Trickett, Burrows, Dave Troy, Kenyon
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russia has warned it may shut down the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and it also rejects proposal for demilitarized zone around the ZNPP.
The UN secretary general Guterres has asked that the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP station not be cut off from Ukraine’s grid after Ukrainian reports that Moscow is planning to do so.
Macron’s call with Putin statement: Macron “once again underlined his concern at the risks posed by the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant” and argued for the IAEA experts to attend the plant “as soon as possible”. Putin, the Élysée says, supported this idea. The statement continued:
The two presidents will talk to each other again in the coming days on this subject, after discussions between the technical teams and before the deployment of the mission.
Scientists with the Ukrainian Hydrometeorology Institute simulated the radiation spread of a nuclear disaster at the plant.
During the night:
The Serhiy Prytula Foundation bought a satellite from the Finnish manufacturer ICEYE, which will “allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to receive radar satellite imagery on critical locations with a high revisit frequency. Serhiy Prytula is a Ukrainian comedian, politician, and volunteer. His foundation raised $20 million back in June and the money raised was used to buy 4 Bayraktar drones.
ISW reported on Aug. 17 that Russian military leaders are likely on “high alert” following recent strikes in Crimea, resulting in a potential restructuring of its forces in the region.
While Ukraine’s foreign ministry has the number of Russian casualties at about 44,300, Mediazona, an independent news organisation in Russia, has delved into the background of some of these deaths. Looking into these deaths, Mediazona found that the disproportionate majority of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine came from poor and minority regions of Russia.
Zelensky: Negotiations with Kremlin possible only if Russian troops leave Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky made the statement after a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Ukraine’s economy could contract 35-40% by the end of the year, economy minister Yulia Svyrydenko said on Friday.
Russia’s heavy losses in Ukraine have forced it to send conscripts and convicts to the front lines. A new center in occupied Ukraine is training Russian military and civilian drone operators for combat roles against Ukrainian forces.
Russia’s state communications watchdog Roskomnadzor said on Friday that it was taking punitive measures against a string of foreign IT companies, including TikTok, Telegram, Zoom, Discord and Pinterest.
New FSB proposal would apply ‘foreign agent’ designation to anyone who informs foreigners of Russian troop movements. (That means you too!)
Pro-Kremlin lawmakers live lavishly in France, Monte Carlo. Vadym Stolar and Ihor Abramovych, lawmakers from Ukraine's pro-Kremlin Opposition Platform-For Life party, live in France's Cote d'Azur, according to online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda.
North Korea and the Russian-occupied Donetsk will develop “equally beneficial bilateral cooperation”, its self-appointed leader has said in a letter to Kim Jong-un, according to state media.
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg says the alliance's peacekeeping troops are ready to step in if tensions between Kosovo and Serbia rise as the two Balkan neighbors prepare for further European Union-facilitated talks to normalize relations.
On the lighter side of life, Starbucks is no longer Starbucks in Russia but ‘Stars Cafè’.
Trickett, The Russian Economy: Failing To Plan, Planning to Fail—The Moscow Times
Macroeconomic and industrial policy may not make for gripping reading, but they are the stuff great powers are made of. Bullets and bandages require factories, shipping, and balance sheets. Western sanctions were never designed to deliver a quick knockout blow. Instead, it’s best to think of them as a means of short-circuiting the capacity of the Russian state to juggle the demands of a war of conquest with the worsening economic fallout.
Sabbagh & Harding, Ukraine aiming to create chaos within Russian forces, Zelenskiy adviser says—The Guardian
Ukraine is engaged in a counteroffensive aimed at creating “chaos within Russian forces” by striking at the invaders’ supply lines deep into occupied territories, according to a key adviser to the president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Mykhailo Podolyak told the Guardian there could be more attacks in the “next two or three months” similar to Tuesday’s mysterious strikes on a railway junction and an airbase in Crimea, as well as last week’s hit on Russian warplanes at the peninsula’s Saky aerodrome.
Thread by Emma Burrows- Intelligence News
A Western intelligence official just told reporters attack on Saky airfield in Crimea by Ukraine 'put more than half of Russia's Black Sea Fleet naval aviation combat jets out of use. The Russian system is busy seeking to allocate blame for the debacle.'
'The real story is about (Russia's) Black Sea Fleet. They've lost their flagship Moskva, they lost Snake Island, they lost half of their naval aviation package and their military headquarters was struck.'
'What we are seeing now is (Russia's) Black Sea Fleet taking a very defensive position, trying to avoid getting in the line of fire. This is a proud fleet with a long history. The credibility of that entity has been diminished.'
On recent explosions in Russia/Crimea/Russian-occupied territory: 'I think we can assume attacks by Ukrainians behind enemy lines.' Targets such as Belgorod (in Russia) 'are legitimate targets which don’t risk Russian territorial integrity.'
'I don’t see [explosions/attacks behind Russian lines] diminishing. I think we’ve seen an uptick of those events.' Western intelligence official puts attacks by Ukraine down to a 'combination of incredibly brave people and new capabilities.'
Suggests Zaporizhzhia NPP is being used by Russia & Ukraine in a battle for the 'information environment.' Says infrastructure there is built to 'cope with a civilian airliner flying into it...direct fire is not our concern.'
'The issue we are concerned about [at Zaporizhzhia power plant] is the water cooling of nuclear reactors. If the grid power supply is disrupted, it pushes them to back up generators. If they fail...we are in a more serious situation.'
Right now 'there are diesel generators & a workforce [at Zaporizhzhia] to mitigate risk.' Says ZPP provides 20% of Ukraine's electricity. 'This is hybrid warfare...If this were connected to Crimean grid it would be a sign of Russification'
Russians are starting to 'run out of ammunition.' 'We have a large range of evidence to suggest munitions are being depleted...inc munitions coming out of deep storage.'
Falling Russian munition stocks 'ultimately will start to impair Russia's ability to launch offensives.' Says Russia has merged BTGS & is having a 'terrible time trying to reconstitute its forces...this is not a good way to improve combat effectiveness'.
War in Ukraine is now in 'different stage.' Conflict is not at the 'high point' when there was constant shelling in Donbas. This is 'partly because both sides have become more conscious that this is a marathon, not a sprint.'
It will be important to see if a vote on incorporating Russian-occupied Kherson region of Ukraine will be held on 11th Sept at same time as Russian regional elections. 'Even if it is absorbed into Russia, the Ukrainians will still attack them'.
Meduza, As war against Ukraine stalls, Kremlin officials mull delaying ‘referendums’ in occupied territories
Russia’s war against Ukraine appears to have reached a deadlock. Be that as it may, two of Meduza’s sources close to the Kremlin say that the Putin administration still hasn’t abandoned the idea of holding pseudo-referendums in the occupied territories of Ukraine this fall. However, since Moscow’s original plans hinged on its troops and proxies in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic capturing the entire Donetsk region before September, Kremlin officials are now mulling other options. These include holding the referendums as planned, but only annexing the Donetsk territories under Russian control, or putting off the referendums until this winter — at the risk of confounding supporters of the war.
Irene Kenyon, Amnesty International—Lost Integrity and Unethical Lies—Into the Void
Amnesty International was supposed to be an organization that stands up for human rights globally. The NGO claims it has more than 10 million supporters worldwide and its stated mission of the organization is to campaign for "a world in which every person enjoys all of the human rights enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other international human rights instruments."
Sabine Adler, "You can also throw cotton balls"—Zeit Online (a must read)
Be it the annexation of Crimea or NATO membership: Germany has failed when it comes to Ukraine policy, says author and Eastern Europe expert Sabine Adler in an interview. She means above all Merkel, Schröder and Steinmeier. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also considers them unsuitable as mediators in the Ukraine war.
Call for an investigation into Russian interference in Italy
This is an interesting development. Minister of Foreign Affairs, Luigi di Maio, has proposed to form a commission to investigate the relationships between Russians and Italian politicians. As Jacopo says in the tweet, they may not end up forming the commission, but Di Maio knows better than anyone about these relationships.
Russia ramping up its propaganda on Italian accounts
Russia is currently ramping up its propaganda in an effort to influence the Italian election. This video presents the narrative that the Theatre in Mariupol has been rebuilt by the Russians.
This narrative is the continuation of a Russian trope that was introduced in a faux documentary aired on an Italian political chat show- Piazzapulita (La7). The documentary was entitled: ‘The Seige’. Italians claimed that the documentary was the work of an Italian war journalist, but we simply don’t know where the footage came from.
The documentary introduced the narrative that Mariupol is now Russian, and Russians have saved the inhabitants of Mariupol. Russia will rebuild Mariupol. This video post seeks to validate that false claim.
On Telegram chats and elsewhere, these kinds are pòsts are in abundance. They are circulated to counter the reality of Russian war crimes and acts of genocide.