Aug 19: Saturday Stories
Day541: Zapo DonetskEnergy UAdrone UASitRep RUSitRep Mishustin RUdone India RUoil Lukashenka Denmark Slovakia Sweden SpiesUK USSKJP WarDaries Arctic A&P United24 UKDef Davis AP Guriev Philips Moody
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
For the Russian propagandists still touting the narrative that Russia is fighting against NATO, they’re going to have to come up with something better. United24 spells out why it’s never been about the West.
Stories we’re following…
Russian forces launched four missile, 53 air strikes and 40 multiple launch rocket system attacks across 136 settlements yesterday, the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said in its morning briefing, There were 33 combat engagements, the general staff said.
Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia damages homes, educational facilities. Russian forces hit the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia on Aug. 18, damaging three apartment buildings and two educational facilities, reported acting mayor Anatolii Kurtiev.
Limited power across several regions after damage to a thermal power plant in Donetsk oblast The thermal power plant in the Donetsk oblast was operating today at a reduced capacity due to shelling that damaged the electricity line, said Ukraine’s energy ministry. Russian shelling disconnected 110 kV overhead lines twice, leading to limited electricity production at one of the region’s thermal power plant.
Russian state media reporting a huge fire at Novorossiysk’ oil terminal, which is located about 172 km from Crimea. Novorossisk is Russia’s Black Sea oil export terminal. It exports 30 percent of Russia’s oil. Its harbor is lined with big oil tanks.
Behind the Lines- National Resistance Center: Russia deports another 450 Ukrainian children. Russia has deported another 450 children from areas of Ukraine under Russian occupation, the National Resistance Center reported on Aug. 17.
Behind the Lines- National Resistance Center: Russia plans to passportize all teenagers in Luhansk region by October 1. Russia plans to carry out the forced distribution of Russian passports to all teenagers aged 14-18 living in the Luhansk region, the National Resistance Center reported on Aug. 18.
Up to 20,000 people are mobilised monthly in Russia - Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.
Drones on Moscow: Overnight the Ukrainian forces managed to bypass all air defense once again and a drone reached Moscow. Russia’s defence ministry said its air force downed a Ukrainian drone over the capital at about 04:00 (0100 GMT) on Friday. The expo centre damaged by the drone is on the Krasnopresnenskaya embankment of the Moskva River, 100 metres (328 feet) from Moscow-City. 2,000 people were evacuated from the Moscow International Business Centre and from the VTB Arena Plaza Shopping Centre, reports RIA Novosti, and airport officials closed all its airports. The roof of an Expocenter is partially damaged.
The GUR reports that it struck high Russian officials during a meeting in Enerhodar. The so-called head of the city department, Colonel of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation Pavel Valerievich Chesanov and his deputies received numerous injuries.
Hours before the strike on Moscow, Russia thwarted a Ukrainian marine drone attack on its warships in the Black Sea, the latest in a string of assaults on its fleet, AFP reports. Russia’s defence ministry said the drone was destroyed late on Thursday night by navy patrol ships, 237 km (147 miles) southwest of Sevastopol.
Southern Command: Russia disperses ships in fear of Ukrainian strikes. Russia has dispersed its naval forces in the Black Sea between the southeastern coast of Crimea and Novorossiysk in fear of Ukrainian surface drone strikes, Southern Command spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk said on Aug. 18.
The Ukrainian artillery units have hit and destroyed Russian large ammunitions depot near Klyuchove. This is one of the cities on the way to Melitopol.
Michael MacKay: The Armed Forces of Ukraine lead an offensive in the Tokmak direction in Zaporizhzhya region. The most forward obstacle is Russian positions at Robotyne. Instead of assaulting Robotyne, Ukrainian forces are broadening the front by attacking weaker Russian units on the flanks.
What’s all the fuss about Robotyne? In the Zaporizhye region, it's on the main road to occupied town of Tokmak - a major transport hub for Russia's forces. And it takes Ukraine closer to the Azov Sea coast.
Young Russians should consider factories as a place of employment, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said during a visit to the UEC-Kuznetsov aircraft and space engine building plant in Samara. “I want to appeal to the youth. Guys, come to domestic high-tech enterprises, design engines, technologies, rockets, new aircraft, cars. Heavy engineering is developing, transport engineering is developing, ”said the head of the Cabinet ( quoted by TASS). Mishustin stressed that "we have something to do in the country", and added that he was pleasantly surprised by the "huge number" of young people at Kuznetsov.
Julia Davis: “Vladimir Solovyov and his guests tried to convince everyday Russians that their rightful place is not with the West, but with North Korea and Iran. They compared Trump to the faltering ruble and pined for civil war in the US.”
Monique: I’ve watched almost all of Julia’s clips on YouTube, but this one is actually shocking to me for the gaslighting that is so in your face. Please watch till the end as they talk about how they were humanitarian in Syria.
Russia is making steady progress toward its goal of mass producing a type of Iranian attack drone that could travel more than 1,000 miles and target Ukrainian reports the Washington Post, citing documents about the plan.
Moscow is working on its own version of the Shahed-136, despite delays and sanctions that impact components needed from other countries, according to the documents.
A retired official of Russia’s Federal Security Service was put in charge of security for the program. The passports of highly skilled employees were seized so they could not leave the country. In correspondence and other documents, engineers used coded language: Drones were “boats,” their explosives were “bumpers,” and Iran — the country covertly providing technical assistance — was “Ireland” or “Belarus.”
This was Russia’s billion-dollar weapons deal with Iran coming to life in November, 500 miles east of Moscow in the Tatarstan region. Its aim is to domestically build 6,000 drones by summer 2025 — enough to reverse the Russian army’s chronic shortages of unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, on the front line.
Monique: Please read EuroFile’s republished article about the Alabuga plant and how young teenagers and adults are being used in the manufacture of Russian drones. You can read the original investigation by Protekt as well, although the EuroFile post takes from various articles published about the plant. The Washington Post provides insight from the documents it has received:
A detailed inventory, based on data provided to the Russians by Tehran, shows that over 90 percent of the drone system’s computer chips and electrical components are manufactured in the West, primarily in the United States. Only four of the 130 electronic components needed to build the drone are made in Russia, according to the document.
The flight-control unit, used to pilot the drone, comprises 21 separate electronic components manufactured by the Dallas-based company Texas Instruments. At least 13 electronic components manufactured by the Massachusetts-based company Analog Devices are present in all of the drone’s major circuit boards, including an accelerometer critical for the craft’s operation that allows the UAV to navigate along a preprogrammed route if the GPS signal is lost.
Reuters: India considers importing wheat from Russia at discount. India is in talks with Moscow to import Russian wheat at discount prices in an attempt to push down food inflation ahead of the upcoming elections next year, Reuters reported on Aug. 17, citing unnamed sources.
FT: Russia has found a simple and effective way to circumvent the oil "price ceiling" Russia overestimates the cost of oil transportation and related services, which allows it to sell its oil at a price above the limit set by the G7 countries, according to the Financial Times. Thanks to this scheme, Russia, according to the publication, was able to earn from May to July an additional $800 million. The revenue of the Russian shadow fleet, which carries 40% of the oil, during this period amounted to another $350 million. The authors of the research suggest that similar practices are used in Russia's oil trade with other countries, including China.
August 17: Exactly 25 years ago, on August 17, 1998, the Russian government announced it was unable to pay its domestic debt, sending the country’s economy into a tailspin. In the months that followed, numerous banks collapsed and millions of people fell back into poverty.
Comedy Hour: Lukashenko said that Putin had asked "to cover him if anything happens" a few days before the start of the special operation.
"In the early days of the SWO, I made a statement, if you remember, that we are not getting involved in this conflict, there's not much we can do to help, Russia can deal with anyone as it is, but we're not going to allow shooting Russians in the back. This had to do with Putin's "you have my back please" request. He was probably afraid of a stab in the back from the West," Lukashenka said in an interview with Ukrainian journalist Diana Panchenko.
Lukashenko admits Russian troops invaded Ukraine through Belarus. Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko admitted that Russian forces had invaded Ukraine from the territory of Belarus in February 2022 in an interview with a pro-Kremlin presenter published on Aug. 17. While Lukashenko claimed that "not a single Belarusian was involved," he said that some Russian troops entered Ukraine after the completion of "large-scale" training exercises in Belarus.
The US gave Denmark and the Netherlands official assurances that it will expedite approval of transfer requests for F-16s to go to Ukraine when the pilots are trained, an official said to Reuters. A coalition of 11 countries is due to start training Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16 jets this month in Denmark. Denmark’s acting defence minister, Troels Poulsen, said in July that it hoped to see “results” from the training in early 2024.
“I am writing to express the United States’ full support for both the transfer of F-16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine and for the training of Ukrainian pilots by qualified F-16 instructors,” Blinken said in the letter.
Slovakia's top general visits Ukraine's southern forces command. General Daniel Zmeko, chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic, paid a visit to the Tavria group of troops fighting in Ukraine's south, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on Aug. 17.
Swedish parliament approves $300 million in military aid for Ukraine. The Swedish parliament has approved the transfer of 3.25 billion Swedish kronor (almost $300 million) in military aid to Ukraine, including munitions, spare parts, and vehicles, the parliament announced on its website on Aug. 17.
A great interview with Sergei Guriev about Russia’s economic outlook and the war.
Ukraine may receive remaining Czech Soviet-made helicopter gunships. Ukraine may receive Soviet-made Mi-24/35 helicopter gunships from Czechia's stocks as its military is decommissioning them in favor of newer US models, the Czech News Agency reported, citing defense minister.
Ukraine designates AliExpress owner as 'international sponsor of war.' Ukraine's National Corruption Prevention Agency added Chinese Alibaba Group Holding Limited, the owner of the online shopping portal AliExpress, to its list of international sponsors of war on Aug. 17.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has said the special international tribunal for the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine should prosecute about 20 representatives of the Russian political and military leadership, says Anton Korynevych, Ambassador at Large of Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry, in an interview with Ukrinform. Korynevych believes that this number will include Russia's Security Council permanent members, who made the decision on aggression against Ukraine, as well as those who took steps to implement this decision, including commanders of branches of the military, the Russian National Guard and the Russian Armed Forces.
"The crime of aggression is an elitist crime, only those persons holding office or actually having an opportunity to give orders to wage an aggressive war can commit this crime. So, the tribunal will probably decide [who is responsible for the crimes – ed.]... It may be as many as 20 people, including the high-ranking Russian political and military leadership."
A follow up on the news of Russian spies caught in the UK: Russia deploys spies all over Europe including the UK where three Bulgarian nationals were arrested, to gather information for them, Chris Phillips, former Head of the National Counter Terrorism Security Office
The leaders of Japan and South Korea will join President Biden at Camp David today. The meeting is a diplomatic milestone for the countries, which have a bitter history.
The authorities in Georgia are investigating online threats against the grand jurors who voted this week to indict Donald Trump and 18 others.
Spain and England are set to face off for the Women’s Football World Cup final match on Sunday in Sidney, Australia. The Welsh Guards Band is playing the unofficial anthem, Sweet Caroline at Changing of the Guard. I won’t be rooting for either side—my team was Australia that unfornately were beaten by England’s Lionesses.
An organization in Ukraine is helping former soldiers who lost their vision in combat against Russia to reclaim a sense of autonomy.
Along a bustling city street, former soldier Denys Abdulin, 34, takes his first independent steps since a mine exploded behind him more than a year ago. His goal is completing a 600-meter route with the help of a white mobility cane and a trainer walking ahead of him with a bracelet of small metal bells, Associated Press reports.
Over several weeks, he and other men who lost their vision in combat relearn how to prepare their own meals, to take public transportation and to use cellphones. The camp also features programs for wives and fiancees.
No statistics currently exist for how many service members have lost their sight due to severe wounds sustained in the war, according to Olesia Perepechenko, executive director of Modern Sight, the non-governmental organisation that puts on the camp. But demand for the program is growing as the war nears its year and a half point.
The War Diaries Project: "I was very hungry while sitting in the basement. Now I want to become a chef," Yegor from Mariupol wrote in his diary. During the war, children try to "confess" on paper, in notes, through video or audio recordings. They talk about their fears, experiences, and plans for the future. The project War Diaries: Unheard Voices of Ukrainian Children collected 14 stories of children from different regions of Ukraine who wrote about their emotions in the first days of the great invasion and, in some cases, still do so today.
Oliver Moody, Stasi files threaten to expose Russian ties of the Finnish elite—The Times
In early 1990, months after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Finnish security services were handed a list of Finns who had supposedly collaborated with communist East Germany’s spy agency during the Cold War.
Its contents have been sealed off from the public ever since. In a country that was trapped for nearly half a century by geopolitics between the West and the USSR, and forced to make uncomfortable compromises with the Soviets to preserve its hard-won independence, there has traditionally been little appetite for digging too deeply into this sort of business.
Lately, though, there has been a sea change. Now that Finland is in Nato and the last vestiges of its neutrality have been buried for good, a growing number of senior politicians argue that the time has come for a reckoning with the files from the East German secret police, known as the Stasi.
Helmut Müller-Enbergs, a German expert on the Stasi’s foreign intelligence division and former head of counter-espionage for the state of Berlin, argues that Russia’s spy agencies are now likely to be targeting Finland with much the same tactics once deployed by the KGB and its “little brothers” from the socialist German Democratic Republic (GDR).
These files, he told an audience on a recent visit to Finland, will contain vital clues on how to counter Russian espionage in the years ahead. More than 30 years after the disintegration of the USSR, the Stasi files are at the centre of a broader debate about whether Finland should pursue its own “lustration” akin to efforts in former Warsaw Pact states to turn over the stones of communist dominion. [continue]
Programming note
Alexander Gray warns NATO allies to invest in Arctic defence weapons as Russia makes a play for its northern flank. I’d also like to draw attention to the work by Prof Anne-Marie Brady, one of the world’s authorities on Russia, Arctic security and China especially.