Aug 2: E-Stories
Day 523: Moscow Kharkiv UASitRep RUSitRep YellowRibbon blockade RUdom NorKor Akhmetov UAchildren KaraMurza Belarus BRI UBS Croatia Niger/Algeria BEL A&P UKDef ISW DW ChathamHouse Davis ChangeX Michta
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Moscow hit by a second drone at OKO-2 Tower: Russian air defences have shot down “several” drones targeting the Moscow region, mayor Sergei Sobyanin has said, with one hitting a tower that had been struck on Sunday. The damage seems to be minimal but the building has been closed. Reuters has spoken to Moscow residents who were near the site of the drone attack earlier today.
"In this situation, any place can be hit, so it is quite hard to feel 100% safe," said Alexander Gusev, 67. "No one is safe in this situation because we don't know what will hit us and where."
Why is it significant, Gerashchenko explains: “Those who work in Moskva-City towers are the privileged class of government officials and business people. They saw with their own eyes that Russian authorities are incapable of and cannot protect even their social group. There is no air defence, air raid alerts, bomb shelters for them. Russia is unprotected. Everything that is going on in Russia and Moscow is a clear consequence of the full-scale war that Russia wages.”
Stories we’re following…
12 killed, over 100 injured in Russian attacks over past day. Russian forces attacked nine oblasts: Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Sumy, Chernihiv, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts were attacked.
Update: 6 killed, 75 injured in Russian missile strike against Kryvyi Rih. At least six people have been killed, among them a child, in a Russian missile strike against the city of Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the morning of July 31. 4 killed, 17 injured in Russian strikes on Kherson, including. Presidential Office head Andrii Yermak reported on Telegram that Russian strikes on July 31 against Kherson have killed four people and wounded 17 others, among them a 16-year-old girl.
Kharkiv’s mayor Ihor Terekhov said last night in the city as “very difficult”. Earlier he said that drones destroyed two floors of a dormitory, and Reuters reports he confirmed on Ukrainian television that the dormitory was not in use.
What happened to a Ukrainian school in Kharkiv after Russian missile strikes on July 31. Russian strikes have destroyed 180 schools and Ukraine and rendered 1300 too damaged to use.
Good News: Almost all thermal power stations damaged by Russia repaired. Almost 100% of thermal power stations damaged by Russian attacks late in 2022 and early in 2023 have been repaired, Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov announced on July 31.
The Ukrainian forces missile strikes in Russian occupied territory:
Russian installed authorities in Donetsk report that the train station in Donetsk has been hit;
in Rybal'che, occupied Kherson region, a warehouse was hit by Ukrainian grenades dropped from drones.
A huge blast occurred at the arsenal (в/ч 63876-Р/military unit 63876-R) belonging to the 758th Logistics Center of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sakharnaya Golovka north of Sevastopol, Crimea, several minutes ago.
Russian sources say Storm Shadows are being used. Local channels write it was also loud in Cape Fiolent. A bay to the south of Sevastopol.
The Russian MoD claims that Ukrainian naval drones attacked corvette/patrol ships Serhiy Kotov and Vasily Bykov in the southwestern part of the Black Sea. All naval 3 drones are reportedly destroyed.
Due to the attack of Ukrainian naval drones on the ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, Russian sailors suffered , according to the Ukrainian publication Babel, citing a source in the security and defense services. According to him, the Russian sailors of one of the ships requested the evacuation of the victims. Ka-29 helicopters were involved in the evacuation, which were ordered to deliver the victims to the Black Sea Higher Naval School in Sevastopol. Babel published what is allegedly an intercepted conversation between helicopter crews and Russian coastal aviation services.
The Resistance: In Sevastopol, the pro-Ukrainian Yellow Ribbon resistance is very active. They hung yellow ribbons on several places to remind the local occupying administration that Crimea was and is Ukrainian sovereign land. The Yellow Ribbon resistance operates with so much courage, given what could happen to them if they are caught. Interfax reports that a resident of Krasnodar in Russia has received a 12-year prison sentence after being found guilty of passing information to the security service of Ukraine.
Armed Forces of Ukraine continue their offensive in Melitopol, Berdiansk directions. During the day, 30 combat engagements took place between the Defense Forces of Ukraine and Russian troops. This is stated in the report by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on July 31.
The Russian forces are trying to conduct storms on the Kupiansk, Lyman and Svatove fronts in the east of Ukraine. The Defence Forces of Ukraine are under dense artillery fire by the Russians on all flanks, Hanna Maliar, Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine, reported on the national 24/7 newscast.
“It must be said that for two days in a row the number of Russian attacks has been increasing on the Bakhmut front as well, and the Ukrainian forces are under dense artillery fire on these fronts basically all the time."
Noel Reports: Russian channels are now reporting that the intensity of fighting and HIMARS/Artillery/MLRS strikes in the Orikhiv direction has increased. For the first time, the Swedish supplied 'Archer' is mentioned by Russians.
Endless Russian assaults near Kreminna test Ukraine’s defenses. For Ukrainian troops near Kreminna, the task is to hold on to positions as long as possible while hoping their comrades deliver results on other axes where the Ukrainian counteroffensive is ongoing
Southern Command: Russian logistics severely impacted by attacks on Crimean bridges. Since the strike on the Crimean Chonchar Bridges, Russia has to rely on a long detour through Russian-occupied areas of mainland Ukraine to supply its troops.
Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate, stated that the attacks on the Kerch bridge will continue until Crimea is de-occupied and the structure itself is not dismantled.
"Russia repeatedly stated that this illegal structure has 'maximum protection and nothing threatens it', but there have already been two incidents leading to destruction," he added.
Putin signed a law on increasing the fine for failure to appear at the military enlistment office on the agenda without a good reason. The minimum fine will be 10 thousand rubles, the maximum - 30 thousand. Now Article 21.5 of the Code of Administrative Offenses - "Failure to fulfill military registration obligations" - provides for fines from 500 to 1000 rubles.
Russians produce dozens of Kalibr missiles per month - DIU. Russians produce dozens of Kalibr cruise missiles per month. Representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Andriy Yusov said this on the air of the telethon "United News".
The Polish Ministry of Defense confirmed that 2 Belarusian helicopters (Mi-8 and a Mi-24) violated the country's airspace during exercises over the village of Grudki. Belarus had previously informed Poland about the training. This is meant to test the reactions of the Polish forces and to gather intelligence.
Poland has informed NATO of the incident and has called for the Belarusian chargé d’affaires to the Polish foreign ministry to “explain the incident,” according to the statement. “As a reminder, Russia and Belarus have recently stepped up hybrid actions against Poland,” the defense ministry stressed.
On Wagner’s presence in Belarus and Poland’s warning that the Wagner soldiers could be used to attack Poland or the Suwalki Gap, US Ambassador to UN said, "Any attack of the Wagner group will be considered an attack by the Russian Federation".
Julia Davis: “Propagandist on Vladimir Solovyov's channel reveals the next conspiracy theory that will be disseminated by the Russians: claiming that Americans are helping Ukraine only to snatch the children and corpses for transplants.”
“You have come to the war to die.” This is the inspirational words of the Archpriest to the Russian soldiers at the front.
The Russian authorities intend to attract migrants from North Korea to the country in order to solve the problem of staff shortages. Alexander Kalinin, a member of the regional branch of United Russia, told Vedomosti about this. In Russia, there is a shortage of line personnel - employees who perform basic functions in trade and industry, Kalinin notes. In this regard, according to him, it would be advisable to attract additional migration flows to the country.
Russian court seizes assets of Ukraine's oligarch Akhmetov. A court in Moscow ruled to seize the assets of the Russian subsidiary of the Metinvest company controlled by Ukraine's richest man Rinat Akhmetov, Russian newspaper Kommersant reported on July 31. According to the Investigative Committee of Russia, Akhmetov has allegedly used the money from one of Metinvest Eurasia’s accounts to finance the Ukrainian forces, including the Azov Regiment.
Britain’s ambassador to Ukraine, Melinda Simmons, has characterised Russia’s alleged mass abduction of children from Ukraine as a deliberate strategy to sever ties between Ukraine and the “next generation that will defend the country”.
Russian opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza on Monday lost an appeal against his 25-year jail sentence, the RIA state news agency reported. Kara-Murza, who holds Russian and British citizenship, was jailed for 25 years in April in trumped up charges. Britain added six new designations to its Russia sanctions list, an update to the government website showed on Monday, targeting judges and officials involved in the trial of Kara-Murza. (Video: Steve Rosenberg, BBC)
Western military products worth billions of dollars flow into Russia despite sanctions. Western military goods worth billions of dollars continue to flow into Russia despite international sanctions, the Russian independent outlet Vertska reported on July 31.
The Swiss bank UBS decided to abandon a significant part of the Russian clients Credit Suisse absorbed and, close their accounts. According to NZZ am Sonntag, UBS plans to shed 50-75% of Credit Suisse's foreign client base, considering the risks of working with them too high. The majority of clients, doubtful from the bank's point of view, are Russians. UBS has always been cautious in dealing with Russian business. After gaining access to Credit Suisse's client files, UBS began to scrutinize them. It is not yet clear which Russian clients will be involved in this initiative. It is expected that Russian offshore companies, which Credit Suisse served from Switzerland, will be affected first of all.
Czechia freezes assets of Russian oligarch with ties to Putin. The Czech government has blocked the bank accounts and frozen the assets of Russian oligarch Vladimir Yevtushenkov, Radio Prague reported on July 30, citing Czech Television.
Forbes: A trio of civilian cargo ships—one each from Israel and Greece plus one with Turkish-Georgian registration—ran the Russian blockade in the Black Sea on Sunday and anchored at one of Ukraine’s grain ports on the Danube Delta. Twenty-two days after Moscow canceled a deal with Kyiv—which had allowed Ukraine safely to export tens of millions of tons of grain—and then threatened to halt maritime traffic to Ukrainian ports, the world has called the Russians’ bluff.
“Reports of three civilian ships sailing to Ukraine unhindered may suggest that Russia is either unwilling or unable to enforce such searches at this time,” the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. noted.
Up-date: the number of ships that broke the blockade are now 6 as per the Kyiv Independent.
The US concluded agreements with Bulgaria and South Korea on the supply of 155-mm ammunition to Ukraine and is negotiating with Japan. It includes deliveries in the short term and plans to increase production in the US over the next two years.
Croatia stepping up: Croatia allocates 1 million euros for demining in Ukraine. Croatia allocated one million euros ($1.1 million) for demining of Ukrainian agricultural lands, Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko reported on July 31.
Turkey's Baykar to open service center for drones in Ukraine. Ukraine's Defense Ministry and the Turkish company Baykar signed a contract on July 31 to build a service center for the repair and maintenance of combat drones.
Chinese influence via OCCRP: A leaked document and interviews reveal the Chinese government gave $140,000 to a major newspaper in Solomon Islands to “promote the truth about China’s generosity and its true intentions to help develop” the Pacific Islands country.
Read the full indictment here: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.258149/gov.uscourts.dcd.258149.1.0_1.pdfhttps://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.258149/gov.uscourts.dcd.258149.1.0_1.pdf
Good News: Italy to exit the BRI. On Sunday, Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto signalled the government’s intention to leave China’s Belt and Road Initiative before the deal auto-renews in 2024. He called signing on an “improvised and heinous act” on the part of the government of the time, led by Giuseppe Conte. Italy didn’t benefit from the treaty. Countries that had not signed the BRI got better contracts.
Italian Minister of Defence, Guido Crosetto, on the coup in Niger:
“What happened in Niger, with the coup d’état, is a sign of the hybrid war being fought on the international chessboard.”
A coalition of West African states issued an ultimatum Sunday to Niger’s putschists, threatening military intervention if deposed President Mohamed Bazoum is not returned to power by Aug. 6. Members of the regional bloc, Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) closed their eyes on developments in Mali and Burkina Faso, but not Niger. Alex Vines, head of the Africa program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, told the Financial Times. “But ECOWAS has drawn a line in the sand. Defense planners have been tasked to plan an intervention — it’s not bluff.”
What’s at stake? Amid escalating anti-French rhetoric, the junta announced that it was suspending exports of uranium to France. Niger is the world’s seventh-biggest producer of uranium, possesses Africa’s highest-grade uranium ores, and is one of the main exporters of uranium to Europe. France is a major importer of Nigerien uranium, which helps power the massive French civil nuclear industry. Orano, a French state-backed nuclear energy company, has major stakes in three uranium mines in Niger, though only one is in operation.
In the following video Burkina Faso’s president, Ibrahim Traoré, talks about how the people of Burkina Faso are aligned with Russia and share ‘a common history’—anti-imperialist, and anti-nazism. He sees the West as imperialist. Russia’s influence in the coup belt is extensive and its aim is to capture its resources, mainly gold, uranium, diamonds, zinc and other metals.
Another country that is aligned with Russia is Algeria. Reuters reports that the chief of staff of Algeria’s military met Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu on Tuesday. Shoigu said Moscow was ready to help improve Algeria's combat readiness.
A cursory glance at Kremlin-aligned Telegram chats opens a world that is full of propaganda and hate. Russian secret services, and their affiliated entities spend significant resources on carrying out information warfare in Africa and South America, among other areas of the globe. The Chinese and Iranians also carry out important operations in this regard.
If only the people in the coup belt countries in North Africa could see what derogatory language is used in these Telegram chats to talk about people of colour, they would have another perception of Russia’s so-called beneficence. If only they could see how Russian milbloggers and far right groups derided the Russia-Africa Summit.
Andrew Michta: Ukraine has full agency
As I watch the brutal war unfold in Ukraine, I need to make the following point for those who believe that somehow the US and its allies have full agency when it comes to what happens there-how it ends. True, since the US is the principal source of aid, we have influence.
But in the final analysis it is Ukraine's fight for its sovereignty, for its very survival as a nation. Ukraine is an independent actor with its own interests and priorities. Never forget that it is emphatically NOT (as the Russians have tried to portray it) a US and NATO puppet.
I find it odd to say the list that so many armchair strategists presume to prescribe the end game to Ukrainians or talk about "trading land for peace." I suppose it's easy to draw lines on the map and give away someone else's land. In wonder what if this was their country?
In many a Western capital when it comes to Ukraine there seems to be a disconnect between the rhetoric about norms and values on the one hand, and the extent to which governments are willing (unwilling?) to go to affirm the principles we claim to hold so dear as key to who we are.
Ukraine has reminded us of the critical importance of the principle of national self-determination, for without it there can be no freedom to craft one's political and economic institutions. The price they have paid and continue to pay means that agency is ultimately theirs.
The West may grow weary of supporting Ukraine (Putin is betting on just that), but I doubt that the Ukrainians will give up the fight even if our aid decreases. We can influence the course of this war, but it will be the Ukrainian people who decide when and how it ends.
What are Belarusian views about Russia’s war on Ukraine
The Chatham House Belarus Initiative conducted an opinion poll of 683 respondents between 24 May and 2 June 2023. The target group of this survey was Belarusian people aged 18-35 and living in cities.
Key statistics include:
Belarusian young people are not inclined to support Russia's actions on the territory of Ukraine: only 18 per cent declare support for the war. Young people also do not want to see the Belarusian troops directly involved in the war. Young people tend to believe that Belarus should be neutral in the war and not support either side.
The majority of respondents want the war to end as soon as possible. However, 18 per cent believe that the war should end after Russia achieves its goals, and 15 per cent believe it should end after Ukraine achieves its goals.
41 per cent of Belarusian young people believe that Belarus should remain a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, 47 per cent advocate for neutrality and 12 per cent support joining NATO.
Overall, Belarusian young people more frequently perceive the economic situation in European Union member states and the United States as more favourable than in Russia and Belarus. Additionally, Belarusian young people are more likely to recognize the need for economic reforms.
One-third of Belarusian young people rarely consume news media, and about half cannot name any bloggers or journalists who cover socio-political topics whom they try to follow. Among those who do follow this kind of content, Russian content is more popular.
I hate the ‘X’. I hate everything about it.
For those of you who have accounts on Twitter, here’s a nifty video to show you how you can change the icon from ‘X’ back to Twitter’s previous white bird on blue icon.
Given the state of the world (war in Ukraine, famine, climate catastrophe, political unrest in so many countries), this certainly comes off as a very superficial issue. It is, however, something that disturbs me. When I have some time, I’ll write about it.