Aug 22 Buonasera Mag
Day 180: Zelensky, UA Independence Day preps, RU spies, US more weapons, UA economy, Germany, Dugina. Arts & posts: Walker, Aslund, Vetrov, Kenyon, Lucas
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Russia has now ordered its staff at Zaporizhzhia NPP to take indefinite leave. Ukraine is warning of a major false flag attack.
The Kyiv Independent: Authorities in Nikopol warn residents of Russian 'provocation' near Enerhodar. Yevhen Yevtushenko, head of the Nikopol military administration, told residents who live near the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to "leave the streets and avoid mass gatherings."
Stories we’re following…
Zelenskiy has warned Ukrainians to be vigilant in the coming week as they prepare to celebrate their independence day on Wednesday. “We must all be aware that this week Russia could try to do something particularly ugly, something particularly vicious,” Zelenskiy said. Authorities in Kyiv have banned large public events ahead of Ukraine‘s Independence Day on Wednesday.
No negotiations possible if Russia tries Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol. Zelensky also said that if “absurd and disgusting trial” of Ukrainian soldiers takes place in Mariupol it will eliminate the possibility of talks with Russia.
Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s permanent representative to the UN in Geneva, told the Financial Times that there would be no direct talks between Putin and Zelensky, and has ruled out a diplomatic solution to end the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s SBU has detained two Russian informants in Donetsk who gave the RU occupying forces the exact location coordinates of personnel & equipment of the UA Armed Forces, including the combat positions of the HIMARS reactive artillery systems. They transmitted the received intelligence through one of the officials of the so-called "people's militia of the DNR".
The Ukrainian forces have struck at the the Antonivsky Bridge, over the Dnipro River in Kherson region. The Russians had recently repaired it. It happened at the very moment when a convoy of Russian vehicles with ammunition was moving along it, – adviser to the head of the Kherson military administration Serhii Khlan.
Russian artillery fire pounded Nikopol overnight, according to Ukrainian officials.
Ukraine’s cities update air raid sirens with chemical, radiation hazards alerts. The Center for Countering Disinformation said that some municipalities have set up chemical hazard signals through Ukraine's Air Alert app for air raid alerts.
Government employees in Kyiv have been told to work from home this week, over fears that the centre will be targeted with Russian missiles.
Sensing Russia’s momentum has completely stalled, the United States is rushing into Ukraine another $775 million in advanced missiles, armored vehicles, and artillery to help Kyiv’s counteroffensive to retake territory, according to a senior defense official.
Kyiv School of Economics: Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused direct losses worth $113 billion since Feb. 24. the team is actively collecting satellite images to analyze the destruction caused by the Russian military and using those in the “Russia will pay” project to assess needs for future recovery.
Russia lacks volunteers to set up new units. Ukraine's Defense Ministry's Intelligence Directorate said that in one Russian region the formation of a tank battalion, which started in early July, has been put on hold after only 30 people signed contracts to serve in the battalion out of the 180 needed.
Russia has deployed hypersonic Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles three times over the course of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu has said.
Germany must prepare for Russia to cut gas supplies further and faces a difficult time ahead, the country’s economy minister, Robert Habeck, said.
German chancellor Scholz received support for his interest in Canadian liquid natural gas to help replace Russian gas imports from Ukrainian’s Naftogaz. The prospect of LNG deliveries to Europe from Canada is something that Naftogaz has also been working on itself.
Serbia will cut Russian oil and gas imports from November 1.
The vessel, the Panama-flagged Navi Star carrying 33,000 tonnes of grain, arrived in Ireland after leaving southern Ukraine’s main port of Odessa two weeks ago.
Dugina investigation- solved!
On Sunday, the National Republican Army in Russia claimed that they were responsible for Dugina’s assassination. The Kyiv Independent reports:
The National Republican Army, an unknown Russian group claims responsibility for the car bomb killing Dugina, former Russian lawmaker Ilya Ponomaryov said. He claimed that the group had authorized him to issue the statement. "We... (are outlawing) the initiators of the war and those who rob and oppress the peoples of Russia," the group allegedly said. "We declare President Putin a usurper of power and a war criminal who amended the Constitution, unleashed a fratricidal war between Slavic peoples, and sent Russian soldiers to certain and senseless death."
You can read their manifesto in full and in English below.
It’s not over yet. Hold on. Now the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB) would have us believe that they have skillfully solved the case: a former Ukrainian army GRU officer from the Azov Regiment planted the bomb and has escaped to Estonia!
They even have pictures…of the woman…maybe she’s real, maybe she’s not. There’s a video as well that shows the moment when Vovk and her daughter arrive in Russia, move into the house where, according to the FSB, Daria lived, and also the moment when Vovk leaves Russia on the border with Estonia.
They worked so quickly- like Flash Gordon fast: they managed to find the alleged assassin in less than 2 days. Yet, as Alex Kokcharov reminds us, the FSB are sill searching for killers of politician Nemtsov for 2,733, of civic activist Estemirova for 4,786, and of journalist Politkovskaya for 5,798 days.
There’s another twist. Tass has reported that, “the perpetrator of the murder of Dugina, a Ukrainian citizen, Natalia Vovk (Shmara), could enter Russia on forged documents”. The Azov Regiment has been deemed a terrorist group in Russia. The news is now circulating widely on all pro-Kremlin social media channels.
This means that the FSB will most likely plant a body of a woman somewhere in Russia, saying this is ‘Natalia the bomber’, and then hold a presser.
Margarita Simonyan has tweeted that she suspects Estonia would not extradite Vovk (visas!), and adds that Russia should “send people to admire the spires in Tallinn”, which is likely a reference to the two Russian nationals -Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov – accused of poisoning the Skripals on UK soil in March 2018. The Russians have not contacted the Estonian authorities asking for information on Vovk.
In the meantime, the Russian forces are still inside the Zapohrizhia NPP, and pose a nuclear threat to Ukraine and Europe.
Shaun Walker, Six months of hell in Ukraine: how Putin’s crazy war reached deadlock- The Guardian
This week Kyiv will celebrate independence day, and mark half a year of fighting, with a display of wrecked Russian tanks on its main street. The Russian president’s hopes of a swift victory have come to nothing. Peace talks have stalled. Where do we go from here?
Thread Anders Aslund
Let us sort out the most obvious points half a year after Russia attacked Ukraine:
1. Russia has lost this war.
2. Putin has not figured out as yet how he is to explain his embarrassment. Is it possible? I doubt it.
3. Ukraine has not recovered the 20% of its land that Russia seized. As @MaxBoot suggests, it might benefit from just wearing the Russians out and persuade them to go home.
4. To me, the Russian version of 1917 appears more likely: The Russian soldiers shoot their cruel officers.
5. Putin has all reasons to offer concessions and the West MUST not give in. The West should just tell the Russians to go home from the whole of Ukraine.
6. The US must give Ukraine all the arms it needs to defeat Russia: Long-distance missiles & airplanes.
7. Putin will not use nukes, because then he would kill himself. Just forget that theoretical option! Give Ukraine all the arms you have asap! Ukraine fights for all of us.
Irene Kenyon, Russia: Additional Economic Measures—Into the Void
Economic pain. No matter what messaging the Kremlin is disseminating, the Russian economy has been significantly impacted by the western sanctions imposed after Putin’s invasion. A recent Yale study reveals that the Russian economy is actually being catastrophically crippled not just by sanctions, but by western companies derisking and withdrawing from the country of their own volition.
Russian elite vaca in Greece
Vadym Vetro has posted this video of Dmitry Peskov’s wife wooping it up in a Greek restaurant in Ephesus, Turkey. Clearly, sanctions aren’t affecting her vacation plans or mood: she’s happy as ever.
Edward Lucas, China’s Europe Game- CEPA
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is patient and powerful. But that does not make it invincible. The lesson of its activities in central and eastern Europe (CEE) is that it succeeds mainly because of western weakness, rather than because of its own genius.
This is fantastic, reliable reporting !! Bella...