Aug 27 Buonasera Mag- Saturday Ed
Day 185: Zaporizhzhia, RU forces, Lithuania, NATO, Canada, Belarus, Medvedev, Iran drones, UNESCO, France, Poland, Draghi. Arts & Posts: Hill, Tokariuk, Ben-Ghiat, Wolf, Ignatius, Trump #IntelGate
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russia has blocked an agreement at the United Nations that was aimed at bolstering the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) because Moscow objected to a clause about control over the Zaporizhzhia power plant in Ukraine.
Ukraine suspects Moscow intends to divert power from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed by Russian troops in 2014.
UK intelligence: Russian offensive stalled due to poor performance, fierce Ukrainian resistance. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's claim that the offensive was deliberately stalled to prevent civilian casualties is "misinformation," the British Defense Ministry said.
SW: For the first time since Aug. 18, Russian forces did not make any territorial gains. The Institute for the Study of War also reported that Russian forces in the occupied areas “remain unlikely” to conduct sham referendums on Sept. 11. The Russian forces have intensified their attacks on Donetsk.
Russia received hundreds of Iranian drones. It is unclear whether Russia has begun using the drones in Ukraine, the Associated Press reported citing Western intelligence officials, "but the drones appear to be operational and ready to use."
Lithuania announces plans to buy 37 kamikaze drones for Ukraine. Crowd-funding of drones for Ukraine once again pays off. A similar crowdfunding campaign helped Lithuania facilitate the transfer of Turkey's Bayraktar TB-2 drone to Ukraine.
NATO sounds the alarm about Russia's Arctic policy: “The importance of the high north is increasing for NATO and for Canada because we see a significant Russian military buildup with new bases, new weapons system".
Belarus' Lukashenko announced the readiness of Belarusian aircraft to carry nuclear warheads and called German Chancellor Scholz & French President Macron 'kids'.
Dmitry Medvedev on why Putin should still talk with Macron: “France knows how to make medical diagnoses. President Macron said that NATO has brain death. He is a good doctor, it’s hard for me to disagree with him".
Russia received hundreds of Iranian drones. It is unclear whether Russia has begun using the drones in Ukraine, the Associated Press reported citing Western intelligence officials, "but the drones appear to be operational and ready to use."
Ukraine appeals to UNESCO: 'Russia using education as a tool of oppression.' Oleh Nikolenko, a spokesman for Ukraine's Foreign Ministry, said on Aug. 26 that Russia threatens parents in the occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts with putting children into orphanages if they do not sign them up for Russian-seized schools.
On Monday morning, Scholz will set out some of the ideas promulgated in his Zeitenwende speech to the Bundestag following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which signaled a historic shift in German defense policy — in particular, what it means for the European Union, according to a government official.
French energy firm TotalEnergies says it is divesting its stake in a Russian gas field that was reported this week to be providing fuel that ends up in Russian fighter jets.
Ukraine has shipped the first million tonnes of agricultural products. Since Feb. 24, Ukraine has shipped one million tonnes of foodstuffs from its three Black Sea ports under the UN-backed grain deal, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during his evening address on Aug. 26.
Russian authorities have resurrected the Soviet-era newspaper Naddnepryanskaya Pravda, which now claims to have a print run of 250,000.
The Polish Union of Journalists is calling for an indictment for war crimes for the leading Russian media propagandists Margarita Simonyan, Vladimir Solovyov, Dmitry Kiselev, and Olga Skabeeva. These crimes are within the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court in The Hague, but there are now also intensive discussions in many international fora about creating a special court for the crime of aggression.
The Draghi government is set to anticipate the release of its gas strategy, which is being drawn up by Ecological Transition Minister Roberto Cingolani, early next week. The plan will feature a two-tiered set of measures, to be applied depending on the level of scarcity, bot doesn’t contemplate all-out rationing.
Only 3% of Viktor Orban's Fidesz party supporters believe that Russia started the war in Ukraine. 12% believe that Ukraine is to blame, and 49% think it's the USA.
Medvedev on French La Chaîne Info
Former Russian president Medvedev, said in a French television interview on Friday that Russia was prepared to hold talks with Zelenskiy subject to certain conditions, but warned Moscow would not stop its assault until its goals had been achieved.
“Renouncing [Ukraine’s] participation in the North Atlantic alliance is now vital, but it is already insufficient in order to establish peace,” Medvedev told LCI television in quotes reported by Russian news agencies.
He also stated that the invasion of Ukraine is designed to prevent a Third World War: WWIII could have started if Ukraine had been allowed to join NATO, paving the way for a supposed Western military operation against Russia.
Medvedev also argued that Russia’s “special operation” in Ukraine represents the “most modest option” available to Moscow, saying that Russian troops are targeting only Ukraine’s military and avoiding the wider destruction that would accompany a more aggressive offensive. “[Ukraine’s] infrastructure would have been completely destroyed, its decision-making centers, its state authorities, and so on. We didn’t go that route,” claimed Medvedev, ignoring the catastrophic and often indiscriminate damage Russian troops have inflicted on Ukrainian population centers since February 2022.
Medvedev also emphasized that Russia currently has no grounds for using nuclear weapons, repeating Moscow’s position that the only justification for resorting to this option would be another country’s first strike or “other actions that threaten the existence of the Russian state itself.”
My comment: while making these bellicose and false claims, he makes no reference to the destruction and death caused by Russian forces and leadership in Ukraine, and against the Ukrainians.
Fiona Hill, The World Putin Wants- Foreign Affairs
He laid out this mission in a 5,000-word treatise, published in July 2021, entitled, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.” In it, Putin insisted that Belarusians, Russians, and Ukrainians are all descendants of the Rus, an ancient people who settled the lands between the Black and Baltic Seas. He asserted that they are bound together by a common territory and language and the Orthodox Christian faith. In his version of history, Ukraine has never been sovereign, except for a few historical interludes when it tried—and failed—to become an independent state.
Austria’s Kneissl still batting for Russia
Yaroslav Trofimov: A former foreign minister of Austria hopefully posts a Russian meme showing the EU as impoverished peasants who will come beg Putin for favors in the cold February of 2023.
Toomas H Ilves: This former foreign minister is one reason why European counter-intelligence doesn't trust their colleagues in her country enough to share information. One reason, there are many others.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat, Always the Victim: A Century of Strongman Scams- Lucid
The idea that the strongman is a victim is one of the more durable scams of authoritarianism. The August FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago, which was prompted by his storage of highly classified state documents in his private residence, has given new life to Trump's version of the con. It’s designed to vindicate his assertions that his enemies (codified as the "Deep State,") are out to get him.
Mark L Wolf, A better way to prosecute Putin- NBC
In Kara-Murza’s address to the Arizona Legislature, he discussed two approaches that might catalyze an end to Putin’s rule and the invasion of Ukraine. The first is the need to get accurate information to the Russian people about the atrocities being committed in their name, something he has been striving to do with some success, even after being jailed upon returning to Russia because he spoke honestly about the war crimes and other offenses the Kremlin is committing in Ukraine. In addition, Kara-Murza condemned the invasion as a “war of aggression that Putin’s regime has unleashed against Ukraine,” noting that “‘war of aggression’ [is] a legal term from the Nuremberg Statute which I am using deliberately.”
David Ignatius, Opinion Beware the emerging alliance between Russia and Iran- WaPo
For Russia, struggling to maintain momentum in Ukraine after six months of brutal conflict, the new Iranian assistance could be a game-changer, the intelligence officials warn. “This is not just a tactical alliance,” explained one official. With China and India refusing to sell weapons to Russia, Iran could become an essential pipeline for weapons and money.
ISW Thread on Afghanistan, China & Russia
Afghanistan’s economic weakness provides China with the ideal opening to utilize its Belt and Road Initiative to establish influence over the country, notes The Study of War researcher Peter Mills in this Fox News examination of the consequences of the U.S. military withdrawal.
[The Belt and Road approach] has helped China establish a widespread and deeply-enmeshed influence in various areas around the world, including countries on the other side of the planet, but any such projects remain in the early stages, according to Mills.
Despite its ambition, "we're still not really seeing China put forth substantive investment," Mills said, noting that there is "a lot of talk" but not much movement on several project ideas, including mining in the country or establishing a power plant in northern Afghanistan.
While the situation could change in the near future, ISW has yet to observe large numbers of Chinese engineers, construction workers, or equipment – all the things that you would expect to see if China were to start a mining project or build major infrastructure, Mills added.
What Trump had in his closet
Who else saw what was in his closet?
