Aug 5: Saturday Stories
Day 526: Olenegorsky RUattacks UASitRep RUSitRep Fedosia Kazak Wagner BSGI POLspies TrumpIndictment Niger A&P BelHajun KyivIndie Smith Sumlenny Kassymbekova Speck Lucas VOA UKDef Davis NoelReports
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian forces attacked 9 oblasts over the past day, killing at least two people and injuring at least 14 others, local officials reported early on Aug. 4. Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv oblasts came under attack.
The Russians attacked Sumy Oblast 27 times over the past day, with 165 explosions recorded there, reported by the Sumy Oblast Military Administration
Evening Up-date: Explosion in the area of the Crimean bridge, - Russian media
"Local residents indicate that they heard a loud explosion in the area of the village of Yakovenkovo. It is reported that, perhaps, the scene of the incident is near the Crimean bridge," the occupiers' media write.
Ukrainians stike an oil storage facility in Fedosia, Crimea: "There is a large oil storage facility in Feodosia, which, in particular, supplies fuel to Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Therefore, we should continue to expect explosions there," said Cpt. Nataliya Humenyuk, spokeswoman for the operational command 'South' reported.
Russians are reporting that a number of unidentified naval drones attacked ports of the Black Sea at night, including the Russian Naval Base in the Novorossiysk port where a large military ship “Olenegorskiy Gornyak” was damaged. The ship is a "Ropucha class" assault ship of the Black Sea fleet.
“Tonight, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with the use of two unmanned sea boats, attempted an attack on the Novorossiysk naval base of the Russian Armed Forces,” the ministry said on Telegram.
Footage of the actual moment a Ukrainian naval drone reached the Russian Project 775 war/landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyk confirming it wasn't destroyed on its approach contrary to the claims of the Russian Ministry of Defense. Videos abound showing the ship being towed away. The Ukrainian SBU reports that the naval drone carried a payload of 450kg TNT and the operation was carried out with help of the Ukrainian Navy.
The Black Sea port of Novorossiysk hosts the terminus of a pipeline that carries most Kazakh oil exports through Russia. The Russian ship has been used to transport troops and military hardware into occupied Ukrainian ports, was said by officials in Kyiv to be sufficiently damaged to have been put out of combat action.
Official- evening up-date: Official: Ukrainian forces break through Russian first line of defense in south.
"In some places" on the southern front line, the Ukrainian military has broken through the Russian first line of defense, moving to the "intermediate one," reported the deputy defense minister. "And there they are faced with concrete engineering fortifications on the dominant heights created by the enemy. This, of course, complicates the movement of our troops and the combat actions," Maliar said on national television.
Evening up-date: The Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south in some places broke through the first line of the enemy defense and entered the intermediate line, reports the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Hanna Maliar.
"And there they are faced with the fact that the enemy has actually built engineering fortifications on the main, key commanding heights," –– said Maliar.
ISW: the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least 3 areas of the front on 3 August and reportedly advanced on some fronts.
They advanced on the Kupiansk-Svatove line, in the vicinity of Kreminna and in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, on the Bakhmut front, and in the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Limited attacks in the vicinity of the village of Robotyne.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area on 3 August and made advances in certain areas.
WaPo reports that Ukraine’s Defence Forces have deployed the 10th Operational Corps reserves to advance in the vicinity of the village of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Some people believe the battle around Robotyne is the nearest and most realistic way for Ukraine to break through the Russian defence line, while officials characterise it as having great "strategic value".
Zelenskyy Official: The frontline. The battles are tough, the occupiers are trying their best to stop our guys. The assaults are very fierce. Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Maryinka, Avdiivka directions. Southern directions. It is difficult everywhere. But no matter what the enemy does, it is the Ukrainian force that dominates. And I am grateful to everyone on the frontline for this!
Russian citizens from the Bilhorod region have started complaining that a group of Chechen Akhmat forces started evicting Russian citizens from their houses and are settling in their homes.
ISW reports that "the Kremlin is attempting to establish favourable conditions to attract additional volunteers to serve in the Russian Armed Forces". ISW noted that Putin signed a decree on mandatory state-provided life and health insurance for those who serve as volunteers and mobilised while participating in Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The ISW’s report also noted that the Russian Defence Ministry is not providing equipment to Russian territorial defence units operating on Russia's western international border.
The majority of contract soldiers in the Russian Federation are trying to avoid going to the front line in Ukraine, reports Andriy Yusov on the air of Channel 24. "even contract soldiers are trying in every way to avoid moving to the front line and directly participating in assault operations. Another thing is that they are not asked about it," Yusov said. According to him, the whining of these people that everything is bad, that the commanders are inept, that Russian President Vladimir Putin is leading everyone in the wrong direction, of course, has little effect on the overall decisions and plans of the leadership.
Iran’s foreign minister Amir Abdollahian will visit Japan on Sunday and meet his Japanese counterpart and Japan’s prime minister Fumio Kishida, Reuters reports, citing broadcaster TBS. Japan will tell Iran to stop weapon supplies to Russia at Abdollahian’s Tokyo visit, TBS said, citing multiple unnamed government officials.
The Russian invaders are forcing Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant workers in the temporarily occupied city of Enerhodar to obtain Russian passports, reports the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces. The General Staff reported that the Russian occupation forces were conducting regular searches of local residents in the city, both on the streets and in their homes. They are checking passports and phones. If a citizen's passport turns out to be Ukrainian, the document is destroyed and they are forced to obtain a Russian one. In addition, the occupiers are forcing people to change other documents, such as driving licences and papers for movable and immovable property.
Journalists have obtained evidence that Russia has been attacking Ukraine using Kh-55 cruise missiles which were officially handed over by Kyiv to Moscow as part of an agreement between the Cabinet of Ministers and the Russian government in 1999 in exchange for paying off debts for Russian gas. Skhemy revealed that at least a dozen missiles from the list were used by the Russian Federation to attack Ukrainian cities – some of them were shot down by Ukrainian air defence forces, and some hit residential buildings.
In July 2023, Putin classified more of his decrees than he had during his presidency to date, Mediazona reports. The serial numbers of Putin’s decrees suggest that in July, 62% of his decrees were classified. Mediazona pointed out that secret decrees are often connected to awarding soldiers who take part in combat actions, including posthumously.
Putin signs a law on a windfal tax of 10% on excess profits for large companies, published on a government website on Friday. Reuters notes the law, passed by parliament last month, is aimed at raising 300bn roubles (£2.4bn / $3.11bn) and will ease the strain on the national budget as Russia continues to wage its full-scale invasion of Ukraine
Reuters: Internet users in Kazakhstan see ads calling to join the Russian army. Advertisements offering an immediate payment of over $5,000 for joining the Russian army have began popping up on the screens of Kazakh internet users amid the escalating Ukrainian conflict.They promise a one-off payment of 495,000 Russian roubles ($5,300) to those who sign a contract with the Russian military, along with a monthly salary of at least 190,000 roubles ($2,000) and undisclosed extra benefits. The ads lead to a website that offers potential recruits a chance to join the Russian army in the Sakhalin region in Russia's Far East.
FT: Russian local authorities have begun distributing machine guns to civilian forces in the south-west of the country for the first time since the Ukraine war began. Tass, the Russian state’s news agency, on Wednesday reported territorial self-defence forces in the Belgorod region that borders Ukraine had received the equipment, which also included machine guns and off-road vehicles.
Polish pilots are ready to use their weapons without hesitation in case of emergencies on the border with Belarus. This was stated by Polish Army General Marek Sokolowski, – TVP Info reports.
"The helicopters are armed and ready to fight. There are very experienced pilots here, there are pilots who have used onboard weapons and missiles with me in Afghanistan and Iraq", – Sokolowski says.
White House: Russia seeks to buy more munitions from North Korea. Russia seeks to buy more munitions from North Korea for the war in Ukraine as Moscow grows increasingly dependent on foreign supplies, the Associated Press (AP) reported on Aug. 3, citing U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby.
On Thursday, the Bulgarian government approved a draft agreement between the Bulgarian Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Ukrainian Defence Ministry for the free provision of armoured transport equipment. The decision of the Bulgarian government authorises the country's Minister of Internal Affairs, Kalin Stoyanov, to negotiate with the Ukrainian side for the conclusion of the agreement, "subject to its subsequent ratification."
Businessman charged with bribing Supreme Court head in Ukraine. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) reported on Aug. 3 that Ukrainian businessman Kostyantyn Zhevago had been charged with bribing Vsevolod Knyazev, former head of the Supreme Court. The Ukrainian authorities are forging ahead with a number of arrests in ministries and other government bodies. The clean up began in June 2022.
Poland has detained another suspected member of a Russian spy network, bringing the total number of people detained as part of an investigation to 16, interior minister Mariusz Kaminski said on Friday. “(The internal security agency) detained another, already sixteenth person suspected of participating in a Russian spy network,” Reuters reports Kaminski wrote on social media. “Belarusian Mikhail A. took part in reconnaissance of military facilities and ports. He also carried out propaganda activities for Russia. He was taken into custody.”
Niger coup d'état update. The President of Nigeria submitted a proposal to the Nigerian senate for military intervention in Niger. He noted that the decision to deploy military force is part of the conclusions reached at a meeting held on Sunday in Abuja, Nigeria's capital.
“Following the unfortunate political situation in the Republic of Niger, which led to the overthrow of its president, ECOWAS under my leadership fully condemned the coup and decided to seek the return of a democratically elected government. In an effort to restore peace, ECOWAS convened and adopted a communiqué: closure and monitoring of all land borders with Niger Republic, resumption of border exercises, suspension of electricity supply to Niger Republic, military capacity building and deployment of personnel for military intervention to compel the military junta in Niger to comply demands, if they remain disobedient ," the letter says.
Scott Lucas’s roundup
I don’t agree with Scott’s assessment on what will happen with Crimea but we can disagree.
EU urges G20 to help persuade Putin to reopen Ukraine grain export route—The Guardian
The EU’s foreign policy chief has written to G20 ministers urging them to help Brussels persuade Vladimir Putin to reopen the main export route for Ukraine grain to countries in Africa and the Middle East.
In a letter, Josep Borrell warned that Russia’s decision to walk out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) last month was risking the lives of children and others in war-torn countries and conflict zones.
He urged the international community to speak on the issue “with a clear and unified voice,” adding: “We owe it to the people most in need.”
So far this year, Ukraine has supplied 80% of the wheat procured by the UN World Food Programme (WFP) to support humanitarian operations in the most food-insecure countries such as Afghanistan, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.
“With the termination of the BSGI, all this is now at risk,” wrote Borrell, adding that WFP will now have to source its grain elsewhere with higher prices and with a longer lead time.
The two-page letter was addressed to the foreign ministers of the G20 countries. The EU hopes the letter can leverage the influence of those countries that maintain communication channels with the Kremlin, including Turkey, to try to persuade Putin to return to talks.
“If the international community speaks with a clear and unified voice, Russia might reconsider and resume its participation in this vital initiative. I would like, therefore, to ask for your support in urging Russia to return to negotiations, as well as to refrain from targeting Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure.
“The world has a shared interest in responsible stewardship of global food security. We owe it to the people most in need,” he said.
‘Uncertainty and despair’: War taking heavy toll on mental health of Ukrainians—Kyiv Indie
Viktoriia Borodai can not recall the last time she experienced "real joy."
She has lived in "uncertainty and despair" ever since Russia's all-out war forced her to flee Kramatorsk, her hometown in Donetsk Oblast, last March.
Seeking shelter in different towns across Ukraine and watching how Russian troops bombard her beloved hometown emotionally drained Borodai so badly that she now struggles to get out of bed in the morning.
She also cries a lot when watching the news or thinking about her life before the war.
"I feel how strongly the war has affected my mental health. I don't know how everyone else is doing, but I don't feel well," Borodai told the Kyiv Independent.
"It is difficult for me psychologically. In recent months, I have been thinking of turning to a psychiatrist or taking antidepressants," she says.
Borodai is not the only one who struggles: Russia's all-out invasion left millions of Ukrainians displaced. Many have lost their loved ones or faced violence while living under Russian occupation.
The World Health Organization (WHO) says that 22% of people who have "experienced war or other conflicts in the previous 10 years will have depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, bipolar disorder or schizophrenia."
As for Ukraine, WHO expects that roughly 9.6 million people "may have a mental health condition."
In June last year, Health Minister Viktor Liashko forecasted that around 15 million Ukrainians would need psychological support in the future, and up to 4 million would require prescribed medical treatment.
"Even those who were able to withstand the first months of the war will suffer mental exhaustion because getting used to being in a constant war can also have a negative impact on mental health," Liashko said. [continue]
ICYM Jack Smith’s statements Aug 2, 2023
Special Counsel Jack Smith speaks on his indictment of former President Donald Trump related to the 2020 election investigation.
"The attack on our nation's capital on January 6th, 2021 was an unprecedented assault on the seat of American democracy."
Julia Davis is monitoring the Russian reaction to Trump’s latest indictment:
Donald Trump’s most ardent supporters in Russia appear to be shaken to their core over his latest felony indictment for attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 U.S. election.
During his morning show Full Contact, decorated state TV propagandist Vladimir Solovyov was aghast about the charges. “I’ve never seen or heard of anything like it in my entire life! In America, they are currently attempting to destroy Trump—and to do it unbelievably fast!,” he said. “This sort of a thing never happened in American history!”
Solovyov’s guest, Russian pundit Dmitry Evstafiev, wholeheartedly agreed, concluding that the prospect of future negotiations between Moscow and the U.S. government have now been crushed—and even going so far as to suggest that the indictment could lead to all-out war with the U.S.
Evstafiev complained about pro-Western elements in Russia, and suggested without proof that certain groups in the country are considering staging another coup at a time when the Kremlin is vulnerable.
“All of our liberal pro-Western groups have livened up! They say that something should be done, there should be a coup and then they offer us something,” he said. “Who will offer it, these people, who are trying to forcefully put their own former president in prison, with violation of all norms and procedures? Do you really think that people who don’t abide by their own written and unwritten rules will honor them towards you? Have you totally lost your minds?”
Best endorsement ever.
Always appreciate Julia Davis