Aug 6: Sunday Stories
Day 527: UASitRep RUSitRep Sig MobileCrematoria ZNPP Prigozhin RUdomestic Belarus France Christie Trump Tatars Navalny Huseynova A&P UAArtHistory UKDef NoelReports Time Amanpour MacKay
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russia attacks Kherson overnight, injures 2 civilians. According to the report, Russian troops shelled Kherson seven times over the past day, firing 63 projectiles.
On the Bakhmut front: An “extremely fierce battle is going on”, the deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar, has said, with Ukrainian forces advancing “slowly but confidently” south of the city while securing control of positions north of it. The Ukrainian forces are facing mining and heavy artillery fire.
“The Russians are throwing huge numbers of forces into the Bakhmut area.
For the enemy, the eastern front remains the epicenter of hostilities. There are strategic directions of its offensive.
The enemy believes that by striking in the East, they will be able to turn the tide of the situation at the front. Therefore, the greatest efforts are currently being made precisely in the East.”
Today, the Ukrainian troops are repelling Russian attacks in the Kupyansk, Lymansk and Swativsk directions. The number of enemy shelling has increased. “Russia’s goal is to draw our forces away from the offensive direction and break through our defenses in these directions,” says Maliar.
Russians are targeting Ukrainian forces on the left bank of the Dnipro river. The Ukrainian bridgehead near the Antonivskyi bridge still exists and has even widened to the east.
The Ukrainian forces continue to fight in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. They’re encountering mining and dragon teeth concrete fortifications.
Ukraine has expanded their bridgehead over the Konka river (southeast). AFU units managed to increase their presence eastwards towards Oleshky. Russian milblogger Romanov confirmed the increased Ukrainian presence on the left bank, and at Kozachi Laheri, which is east of Oleshky.
Russia says it has captured a settlement in north-eastern Ukraine: “In the area of Kupiansk, as a result of the competent and professional actions of the military units of the western command, the settlement of Novoselivske was liberated,” the Russian defence ministry said.
On Aug 4 during the night, the SBU hit the SIG, a large oil tanker of the Russian Federation, which was transporting fuel for Russian troops. The Russian tanker was located 60 km from Kerch. According to SBU sources, the special operation took place according to the classic scenario: a naval drone, 450 kg of TNT, an explosion. As a result, one of the most powerful oil tankers of the Russian Federation began a negative navigation near the Crimean bridge.
"We can't navigate without a tugboat. The engine room is completely flooded,” one of the crew of the Sig tanker said in a released audio recording. As a result of the explosion, several members of the tanker's crew were slashed by glass, there were no deaths.
The head of the SBU, Vasily Malyuk, commented on the recent attacks by naval drones on Russian ships.
“Any attack that happens to the ships of the Russian Federation or the Crimean bridge is an absolutely logical and effective step towards the enemy. Moreover, such special operations are carried out in the territorial waters of Ukraine and are completely legal.”
The main significance of the Ukrainian drone attacks is new evidence of Ukraine’s ability and willingness to strike in the Black Sea. Ukraine has carried out at least 10 attacks with drone boats, targeting military ships, the base in Sevastopol and Novorossiysk harbour.
To hide their losses, the Russian occupying forces operate a mobile crematorium continuously in Melitopol'. The bodies of dead militants are brought in flatbed trucks. Local residents complain about the constant corpse stench in the city, especially at night, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report.
As reported by ERR, citing Estonian intelligence updates, due to their inability to break through the Ukrainian defenсe, Russia is attempting to exhaust Ukraine's economy and population through drone and missile strikes. The intelligence report stated that over the past week, Russian forces mainly launched attacks along the lines of Kupiansk-Svatove-Kremenna, in the area of Bakhmut, and along the Donetsk-Avdiivka axis. However, the Russian forces have achieved only minimal success.
The Gray Zone Telegram channel published an audio recording with a comment, allegedly by Prigozhin concerning the Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow:
“Special services must control the security of the state and its inhabitants. Therefore, if the danger comes, and no matter who it comes from, then the threat must be eliminated, ”says a man with a voice similar to Prigozhin.
Christiane Amanpour interviews Russian ambassador to the UK, Andrei Kelin. Amanpour asks why Prigozhin got away with “an armed coup” and still “glad-handing with African leaders in St Petersburg”. Was it a real coup?
Reuters reports that the UN nuclear watchdog has “finally” been granted access to areas of the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine that it first requested a month ago and has found no explosives, the agency said in a statement on Friday.
“International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts have observed no mines or explosives on the rooftops of Unit 3 and Unit 4 reactor buildings and the turbine halls … after having been given access yesterday afternoon,” the IAEA said.
The US authorities are faced with a continuous influx of migrants from Russia, after the authorities' the autumn mobilization and despite promises not to start a new one. Since the beginning 2023 (started October 1, 2022), the US has received 41,465 cases from Russian-speaking asylum seekers, immigration lawyer Tatiana Edwards-Behar reports. In a little more than half a year, the number of requests from immigrants from the Russian Federation doubled the figure for the entire last year, which became a record for 10 years - 19,049 cases.
Putin critic Navalny jailed for 19 more years on 'extremism' charges. A Moscow court sentenced jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny to another 19 years of imprisonment, Russian media reported on Aug. 4. Steve Rosenberg, for BBC News, comments on Navalny’s sentence.
Reuters: Russia doubles 2023 defence spending plan as war costs soar. The data show that in the first half of 2023 alone, Russia spent 12%, or 600 billion roubles, more on defence than the 4.98 trillion roubles ($54 billion) it had originally targeted for 2023. Defence spending in the first six months of 2023 amounted to 5.59 trillion roubles, 37.3% of a total 14.97 trillion roubles spent in the period, the document showed. Russia's budget plan envisages 17.1% of total funds spent on "National Defence". Funding for schools, hospitals and roads was already being squeezed this year in favour of defence and security, but as the share of defence spending grows, other areas could face cuts.
The bill on criminal punishment for evading mobilization will be submitted to the State Duma in the fall of 2023, Andrei Kartapolov, head of the defense committee, told Parliamentary Gazeta. According to the deputy, evaders are proposed to be punished with a fine of up to 500 thousand rubles or imprisonment for up to five years. Putin also signed a law that introduces a ban on travel abroad for a citizen from the moment the summons is handed to him. This applies to both mobilized and conscripts.
Kindergartens, schools and orphanages in the regions published leaflets urging them to look for saboteurs. The 7×7 publication noticed that the leaflets “Reveal the saboteur” appeared on the pages of budgetary organizations on VKontakte on July 31 and August 1. The authors of the announcement urged to inform the security forces about all “suspicious persons” on the railway and “provocative information” in social networks and instant messengers.
The SBU claims that the Russian authorities are preparing a provocation to draw Belarus into the war.
The Ukrainian intelligence service refers to intelligence data, according to which Russia is allegedly preparing a "large-scale provocation" at the Mozyr oil refinery in Belarus.
According to the SBU, employees of the Russian special services and the military under the guise of "Ukrainian saboteurs" are going to sabotage the plant. After that, the Russian authorities will blame Kyiv for what happened in order to try to drag Minsk into the war.
Lithuania will close two of its six border crossings with Belarus amid concerns over the presence of Wagner mercenaries there, the Lithuanian deputy interior minister said on Friday. “We are preparing the decision to shut down two checkpoints,” Arnoldas Abramavicius said, naming the Sumsko and Tvereciaus crossings as those to be closed. Lithuanian and Polish leaders said earlier this week that around 4,000 mercenaries were stationed in Belarus already. Both countries are mulling a joint decision to close the border with Belarus completely.
Denmark’s self-governing Faroe Islands has closed all ports to Russian fishing vessels over spying concerns. Russia has long had a habit of using fishing vessels for spying & sabotage.
France has between 1,000 and 1,500 troops in Niger helping fight al-Qa‘ida and ISIS insurgencies there, and the West worries about yet another west-African country turning to Russia as an ally, causing unrest and allowing terrorist groups to gain ground.
The DGSE, French intelligence services, is under intense political pressure over its assessments on Niger. President Macron said that Bernard Émié, 64, director of France's foreign intelligence agency, should have foreseen the overthrowing of President Bazoum by a junta on July 26. The director of the Directorate-General for External Security (DGSE) said that he had issued a warning earlier this year, and advised to send troops to protect the president in Niamey but declined for fear of seeming “colonialist”.
“We have to move right away with French soldiers, he didn’t want to,” one of the sources was cited as saying. France has around 1,500 troops stationed in the country.
According to sources speaking to Le Canard, Mr Macron also reprimanded Mr Émié for failing to get wind of the 2021 coup d’état in Mali, another former French colony in west Africa.
Monique: Most intelligence agencies take their work seriously, and at times, political leaders don’t take their advice or read the reports they draft. I know this to be the case in Italy, where the Italian intelligence services provide good intel to members of commissions of the government. Italy has also had its fair share of Russian penetration of its intelligence service, as Germany has. It’s an on-going battle. I don’t know enough about French intelligence to say that it also the case there but I’ll keep reading about it to find out.
American machine tools giant Haas Automation faced allegations in March it sold technology to the Russian arms industry via a former distributor. Haas denied the story and said it halted sales when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. But research shows Haas may still be supplying the Russian arms industry indirectly. Special correspondent Simon Ostrovsky reports with support from the Pulitzer Center.
Lithuania has confirmed it will provide Ukraine with NASAMS launchers. The ministry did not specify the number of launchers but said they would also provide Ukraine with counter-drones, some logistics equipment, and more.
Poland asks EU for over $1 billion to increase Ukrainian grain transit. Poland had asked the EU for an investment of 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) so that Warsaw can increase its capacity for transiting Ukrainian grain, the Polish Press Agency (PAP) reported on Aug. 4.
Chris Christie, who is seeking the Republican presidential nomination, made a surprise visit to Ukraine to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he praised for showing “the resolve it takes to survive a war and ultimately win it.” “There are hundreds of millions of people in our country who support you,” Mr. Christie told local officials in Moshchun, a village northwest of Kyiv, during a visit to a memorial overlooking a trench used by Ukrainian soldiers during a battle in March of last year.
Latvia's Office of Citizenship and Migration Affairs will send letters in September to six thousand Russian citizens, requesting them to leave the country. According to LSM, Ingmārs Līdaka, the Chairman of the Seimas Commission on Citizenship, Migration, and Social Cohesion, stated that this concerns those who haven't even attempted to pass the examination for obtaining the status of a permanent EU resident.
Donetsk Oblast enlistment office head charged with corruption, aiding criminals. The State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) announced on Aug. 4 that the head of the Donetsk Oblast military enlistment office had been charged with illegal payments to his subordinates and helping criminals avoid justice.
Crimean Tatar journalists harassed by Russian authorities in the occupied Crimea, @KRYMSOS from @ukraine5am coalition reports. Kulamet Ibraimov, Crimean journalist, was detained for 5 days for trying to cover the court proceedings on Crimean Tatar activists. Upon release, his house was immediately searched by Russian secret services.
Lyudmila Huseynova’s captivity in Izolyatsia, Donetsk
My name is Lyudmila Huseynova. I am 61 years old. I was in russian captivity for more than three years. I was arrested in the occupied territory in the city of Novoazovsk. It happened on Oct 9, 2019. The car just stopped in the street. They jumped out, shoved me into that car.
They took me home, conducted a search, found Ukrainian books, a Ukrainian flag, put a bag over my head and drove on. They took me to Donetsk with a bag over my head. And I did not know at all where they were being taken and what would happen.
When they brought me there, they forced me to undress there. When the bullying began and they threw me into the cell, they allowed me to take off the bag, the girl in the cell said what kind of place it was. "Insulation".
They threatened to give me away for entertainment with the militants. On the second floor of Izolyatsia there was a barracks for people who fought against our Ukraine. They feel satisfied when an older woman is forced to undress. They touch, they pinch, they laugh, they touch or beat with sticks.
Lyudmila returned home as part of the exchange on October 17, 2022. 126 Ukrainian women are in russian captivity, 80 of them are civilians.
Note: Stanislav Aseyev has written about his captivity in Izolyatsia, a prison in Donetsk, in two books: “Isolation” and “The Torture Camp on Paradise Street”. The conditions and treatment of prisoners amount to war crimes. He also provides a picture of the nature of Russian prison culture and the system within which prisoners must survive. Izolyatsia prison camp has been in operation since Donetsk was occupied by Russian forces and their proxies in 2014.
Ukraine’s 10 pt Peace Formula & Diplomacy
The 10pt Peace Formula was presented by president Zelensky in December 2022. He explained at the time that it wasn’t necessary that each country sign onto all 10 points. Ukraine and its allies aim to rally global support for a peace blueprint in talks hosted by Saudi Arabia this weekend, with Western officials increasingly optimistic that China will attend, lending the talks a new weight. Senior officials from 40 countries will be in attendance. Zelenskyy’s 10 pt Peace Formula sets out:
Radiation and Nuclear Safety;
Food Safety; Energy Security;
Release of Prisoners and Deported Persons;
Implementation of the UN Charter and Restoration of Ukraine’s Territorial Integrity and the World Order;
Withdrawal of Russian Troops and Cessation of Hostilities; Restoration of Justice;
Ecological Safety;
Preventing Escalation of War and Repetition of Aggression;
Confirmation of the End of the War.
“One of the main aims of this round of negotiations will be to finally fix a common understanding of what the 10 points are about,” Ihor Zhovkva, Zelenskiy’s chief diplomatic adviser, told Reuters on Thursday. Hopes are that China will accept the invitation to Jeddah:
“Last time they didn’t reject participating out of hand: they said they couldn’t fit it into their schedule,” said a German government official. “This time we all repeated our outreach to Beijing…and we have certain positive signals.”
China has confirmed that it will take part in the meeting on achieving peace in Ukraine, which will be held in Saudi Arabia on 5-6 August. Reuters reports that China is wiling to work with the international community to continue to play a constructive role in promoting a political solution to the crisis in Ukraine, spokesperson Wang Wenbin said in a statement.
The NYT believes that this meeting is the starting point of what is expected to be Ukraine's main diplomatic move in the coming months, aimed at trying to undercut Russia.
Analysts write that Ukrainian and Western officials are trying "to temper expectations for the talks this weekend, stressing that they are not likely to bring the war any closer to an end and that many of the nations that were invited appear unlikely to shift their stances".
In particular, neutral countries such as Indonesia, India, Mexico, Chile and South Africa will be present in Jeddah. They all want to see the end of the war, given the "economic hardships it has caused".
Ukraine’s Peace Formula is essentially the UN Charter put into action. Its items are completely consistent with relevant UNGA resolutions approved by over 140 nations. Supporting the Formula means supporting not only just and lasting peace in Ukraine, but also international law.
Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister
How the Ukraine Counteroffensive Can Still Succeed- Time
he situation in Ukraine still favors Kyiv despite the limited progress made in the counteroffensive so far. Ukrainian forces attempted a limited mechanized penetration of prepared Russian defenses in the south in early to mid-June, but failed to break through the Russian lines. They then switched to slower and more careful operations while disrupting Russian rear areas with long-range precision strikes. Ukraine began the next, reportedly main, phase of its counteroffensive on July 26 with a determined drive to penetrate Russian lines in western Zaporizhia Oblast. It’s far too soon to evaluate the outcome of that effort, which is underway as of the time of this writing, but it is vital to manage expectations. Ukrainian forces are fighting now to break through the first line of long-prepared Russian defenses. Several lines lie behind it, stretching for many miles. Ukrainian progress will very likely alternate periods of notable tactical advances with periods, possibly long periods, of pause and some setbacks. Much as we might hope that the road to the Sea of Azov will simply open for Ukrainian forces the odds are high that fighting will remain hard, casualties high, and frustration will be a constant companion. All of which is normal in war.
But the Ukrainian counteroffensive can succeed in any of several ways. First, the current Ukrainian mechanized breakthrough could succeed, and the Ukrainians could exploit it deeply enough to unhinge part or all of the Russian lines. Second, Russian forces, already suffering serious morale and other systemic problems, could break under the pressure and begin to withdraw in a controlled or uncontrolled fashion. Third, a steady pressure and interdiction campaign supported by major efforts such as the one now underway can generate gaps in the Russian lines that Ukrainian forces can exploit at first locally, but then for deeper penetrations. The first and second possibilities are relatively unlikely but possible. [continue]