Aug 8 Buonasera Mag
Day 166: Zaporizhzhia NPP, Amnesty, Podolyak, Russian assassins, Wagner, British loopholes, World Bank, Blinken, Sweden. Articles: NYT OpEd, Matthews, Adveeda, ITA cybersecurity, WSJ-Russia-China
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russia plans to freeze the war in Ukraine for six months to be able to accumulate more troops and equipment, as well as to wait for the West to get tired of Ukraine - Mykhailo Podolyak, counselor to the Head of Ukraine's President's Office
Energoatom: Russia shells Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, damages monitoring sensors. Russia shelled three radiation monitoring sensors around the site of the plant's dry storage facility for spent nuclear fuel, stated Ukraine's state nuclear energy company Energoatom.
Ukraine’s atomic energy agency Energoatom is quoting Dmytro Lubinets, the country’s human rights ombudsman, on its official Telegram channel. It says: According to the information of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, the territory of the Zaporizhzhia NPP is currently mined, and individual employees of the station are subject to torture and enforced disappearance, and they receive threats. This poses a threat to the lives of employees and prevents the normal operation of the facility.
Amnesty International apologizes for 'distress and anger' its report about Ukraine caused. In an email to Reuters, the human rights organization said it regrets "the pain caused" by its report accusing Ukraine of endangering citizens, but "fully stands" by its findings.
Podolyak: Negotiations with Russia possible only after it suffers several defeats. Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the President's Office, told Le Figaro that Russia is unable to seize more Ukrainian territories, so it inflicts damage on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure.
UK Intelligence: Russia’s poor performance likely resulted in dismissal of 6 commanders since Feb. 24. The U.K. Defense Ministry said on Aug. 7 in its intelligence update that the commanders of the Eastern and Western military districts of Russia had been dismissed.
Security Service detains Russians planning to assassinate Reznikov, Budanov. SBU reported on Aug. 8 that the alleged assassins linked to Russian special services planned to murder Defense Minister Reznikov and Budanov, head of the Defense Ministry's Intelligence Directorate. The suspects, one a resident of the eastern Luhansk region held by Russia-backed separatists and the other a resident of Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, were promised up to $150,000 (£124,000) by Russian handlers for the murder of each of their targets, the SBU said.
Wagner Group recruits over 1,000 Russian prisoners to fight in Ukraine. Recruiters have already visited at least 17 prisons in 10 regions in Russia to hire prisoners and deploy them to the front lines, according to Russian media.
The Russian-installed head of the occupied part of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region signed a decree on Monday providing for a referendum on joining Russia.
Putin allies use loophole in British law to bypass sanctions. Businessmen Arkady and Boris Rotenberg, close allies of Putin, have created a company that is not legally required to disclose its beneficiaries, BBC and Finance Uncovered reported.
Russia may be pushing Turkey to allow it to buy stakes in Turkish oil refineries and terminals This would allow Russia to circumvent the EU oil embargo, as Turkey would indirectly help Russia conceal the origin of oil that it exports to global markets.
World Bank announces additional $4.5 bn in Ukraine aid. The US will provide an additional $4.5bn (£3.7bn) to Ukraine’s government, bringing its total budgetary support since Russia’s February invasion to $8.5bn (£7bn), the US Agency for International Development has announced.
The US secretary of state, Blinken, said if Russia were allowed to bully Ukraine, to invade and take territory without being opposed, then it would be “open season” around the world.
Sweden joins a British-led program to train Ukrainian military personnel in the UK. It will be coordinating with Britain, the Netherlands and Canada on military training for Ukraine. Sweden is reportedly going to send up to 120 military instructors to train Ukrainian forces.
Finnish PM: 'It’s unfair that Russians can travel to EU despite brutal war in Ukraine.' Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said she believes issuing tourist visas to Russians should be restricted following the country's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The Times view on Amnesty International’s Ukraine report: Putin’s Propagandists
As news reached Britain in 1945 of the death camps in Nazi-occupied Europe, Vera Brittain, the famed pacifist author, maintained that these horrors were being publicised “partly, at least, in order to divert attention from the havoc produced in German cities by allied obliteration bombing”.
Matthews, Sanctions are working – whatever Putin says
The Spectator—Don’t believe Vladimir Putin’s hype. The Russian economy is not OK. With western sanctions jeopardising up to 40 per cent of the country’s GDP, Putin’s assurances of an economic pivot to the East are a sham. And his weaponising of gas supplies to Europe is the financial equivalent of strapping on a suicide vest.
That, roughly, is the message of a major new study published last week by the Yale School of Management about the impact of sanctions on Russia.
Maria Avdeeva reports…
Decode39, Cybersecurity, EU funds and Russia. An interview with Italy’s cyber czar
Our interview with the director of the National Cybersecurity Agency one year after its birth. From the cloud to foreign direct investments, Italy has raised its cyber defences and allies (as well as enemies) have noticed. Russian hackers? The campaign is not over.
Remembering Belarus…
WSJ, China, Russia and the West’s Crisis of Disbelief
Historical analogies are often lazy, and I cringe when I hear analysts liken the war in Ukraine and the West’s uncertain response to World War II and Munich. Yet as I watch the hesitant Western military effort—with the U.S., Britain, Poland and the Baltic states in the lead, Germany and France lagging, and the rest of Europe somewhere in between—I hear at least a rhyme.