Dec 1: E-Stories
Day645 Donetsk Kharkiv CombatSit Robotyne BehindLines Saki ChinaTunnel InRussia LGBTQ OCSE Lavrov NATO EU US Jamala LNG Allies Kissinger Disinfo A&P Matviichuk ISW UKDef Lautman TimesRad UADef
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
I’ve been doing a lot of reading on the Soviet and then Russian verve for signing treaties and accords and then never honouring them: they use them as strategic tools. In the disarmament talks or arms limitations talks with the Americans, they had already planned out how to approach the Americans, what to promise, and then how to get around the accord. There was never an intent to abide by the accord. Never. The accords are used to disarm the adversary, or buy time. The talks themselves were performative political theatre. That’s it. Here are some other examples:
Stories we’re following…
Russian shelling hit the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk overnight. Firefighters worked all night to extinguish the burning wreckage of a building in Pokrovsk, Donetsk region,, which is near the frontline in Donetsk. The list of victims included at least 10 people, including two boys aged 13 and one aged 16. Five people are being searched for under the rubble. An apartment building and at least nine houses were damaged in the attack, as well as a police station, cars, and garages, Klymenko said.
A body was found in the ruins of a damaged residential building in Novohrodivka. Emergency services said they are still searching for four other people under the rubble.
Russian attacks have been widespread, using a variety of armaments, including eight S-300 missiles, wounding at least 15, regional authorities said on Nov. 30.
Missile warnings blanket Ukraine as Russia ramps up targeting of energy infrastructure. Ukraine’s air force on Nov. 30 issued aerial threat warnings for the Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv oblasts as Russia doubles down on aerial strikes aimed at crippling the country’s energy infrastructure.
Governor: All families evacuated from 'dangerous areas' of Kharkiv Oblast. The remaining two families with children living in and around the town of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast have been located and evacuated, Kharkiv's Regional Governor announced on Nov. 29.
Zelensky visits south of Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky visited civilians and military personnel in Odesa, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts in the south of Ukraine, his official website said on Nov. 29.
There is a huge fire in Rostov-on-Don, the pavilions of the Temernik market are burning on an area of one thousand square meters.
Combat Situation Update
Zelensky, Umerov visit military command post in Kupiansk. President Volodymyr Zelensky and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov visited a military command post in Kharkiv Oblast's Kupiansk amid Russia's ongoing offensive against the northeastern city, the Presidential Office reported on Nov. 30.
ISW: Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on Nov. 29 and reportedly advanced. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced SW of Krynky and established a foothold in a nearby forest area.
Russian milbloggers claimed that battles are ongoing near Krynky and that Russian aviation and artillery units are heavily striking the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River.
Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to transfer new assault groups to the left bank and that 300 to 400 Ukrainian personnel are operating near Krynky.
Russian forces counterattacked in western Zaporizhia on November 29 and reportedly advanced. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces captured several unspecified Ukrainian positions near Robotyne and also captured unspecified Ukrainian strongholds near Verbove.
Reports that Ukraine attacked Saki air base in occupied Crimea, specifically the 43rd Aviation Regiment. Preliminary reports suggest over 30 Russian servicemen were killed.
Ukraine used Patriot air defence missiles to destroy three Russian Mi-8 helicopters, an Su-34 bomber and an Su-35 bomber, Ukrainian air force spokesperson Col Yuriy Ignat has told a local news outlet. The “brilliant operation” took place in May, Ignat said. It was reported in Russia media at the time.
Ukrainian drones or missiles blew up a warehouse for Shahed drones in Bryansk, Russia, on Wednesday night. Social media footage showed an explosion claimed to be in the area.
Russian media claims that the Ukrainian SBU blew up a part of the railway track between Russia and China. The explosion happened last night on the Baikal-Amur highway, near in the Severomuysky Tunnel located in Buryatia. It is the main railway connection between Russia and China. Noel Reports adds that the footage shows a burning freight train carrying fuel and ferrous metal near the Severomuysky Tunnel.
Behind the Lines
Stoltenberg: Ukraine's ability to implement reforms during war is impressive. “(Ukraine has) made concrete changes, not least in the fight against (corruption)," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, adding that these steps help the country "to move closer to NATO membership."
Me: I can’t emphasize enough how difficult it must be to fight a war, protect a nation, keep your allies on board, and root out corrupt entities in your state all at the same time. The issue of corruption of Western institutions is something we all should have dealt with years ago. The Ukrainians are fighting for their existence at the moment, but I’m certain they will eradicate the state of Russian influence as it seeks victory.
Blinken leaves OSCE meeting in North Macedonia before Lavrov arrives. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken left the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) meeting in Skopje before the arrival of his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on Nov. 30.
A number of officials appear to have walked out of a session of the OSCE ministers’ meeting while Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov spoke. Lavrov accused the west of killing the OSCE. "In fact, Moldova is destined to be the next victim in the hybrid war against Russia unleashed by the West." - Lavrov at the OSCE meeting, which doesn’t bode well for Moldova.
Rt. Hon Ben Wallace: “As Lavrov settles in to the OSCE annual Ministerial Council today it is worth reminding Russia that they are signatories to the following:”
“Each Participating State has an equal right to Security. We (the signatories) reaffirm the inherent right of each and every participating state to be free to choose or change its security arrangements including treaties of alliance.”
Which they signed, including Lavrov and Putin on numerous occasions including: 1975 Helsinki; 1999 Istanbul Summit: Charter for European Security; 2010 Astana Summit; 1994 Budapest Summit declaration.
Polish PM supports return of permit system for Ukrainian truckers. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told reporters on Nov. 29 that he supported the reinstatement of a permit system for Ukrainian truckers entering the European Union, Polish media wrote. The Polish media Polskie Radio 24 also cited other comments from Morawiecki, in which he said that the Polish government would apply for the system to be put back in place at the upcoming meeting of the EU Transport Council on Dec. 4.
Media: Ukrainian group, SBU hack Russian Labor Ministry database. A Ukrainian hacker group working with the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) hacked into the website of Russia's Labor Ministry and obtained sensitive data concerning the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainska Pravda reported on Nov. 29, citing an unnamed security service source.
According to Russian media, several Russian tv-providers broadcasting in occupied Crimea were hacked and showed a speech from Zelensky.
Media: SBU searches Ternopil Oblast monastery over pro-Russian propaganda. The SBU has been conducting searches on Nov. 30 in the Pochaiv Monastery over suspected dissemination of pro-Russian ideology, UP reported, citing a law enforcement source.
New Voice Ukraine: The Speaker of Finland’s Parliament addressed the Council in Ukrainian: "Ukrainians have not only earned the respect of the entire civilized world by their heroic struggle, but have also given us the courage to act."
Russia charges Crimean singer Jamala in absentia for allegedly spreading 'false information' about Russian army. Jamala was put on a federal wanted list in mid-October and arrested in absentia by a Russian court earlier in November, but at the time, it was unclear for what specifically she was wanted.
Ukrainian companies produce approximately 50,000 FPV drones every month, Russians produce six times more, says Maksym Sheremet, founder of DroneSpace. The issue is a lack of engineers, capable of collecting everything by hand.
Computer parts with $1.8 million worth of precious metals found at military unit. Unaccounted-for computer parts containing precious metals worth $1.8 million were found at a military unit in Zhytomyr Oblast, the Defense Ministry reported on Nov. 30.
Finland announced a complete border closure with Russia - CNBC. The decision comes after Finland repeatedly accused Moscow of purposefully allowing migrants to cross its eastern border to sow instability in the country
Meanwhile in Russia
Iran has confirmed that it will buy Su-35 and Mi-28 from Russia. Previously, there were unofficial reports that Iran and Russia agreed on the licensed production of Russian Ka-52 and Mi-28 attack helicopters in Iran.
Like we didn’t know: "Hungary will never supply weapons to Ukraine," Minister of Foreign Affairs of Hungary Péter Szijjártó said. According to him, Budapest wants peace in the region. "The more weapons will be delivered, the longer the war will take," he emphasized.
Bloomberg: Putin’s daughter leads Russia’s Africa initiatives. Katerina Tikhonova, Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s second daughter, is leading Moscow’s efforts to expand its influence in Africa, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 29. Russia competes with the U.S., China, and EU for influence on the booming continent which has a soaring population expected to pass 2 billion within the next decade.
A mathematician by training, Tikhonova helms the Innopraktika Center, a technology organization in Russia. Dozens of African officials have been invited to Moscow next month to meet with investors and Russian IT specialists providing digital services targeted at improving governance. Moscow has traditionally enjoyed strong ties with the global south, a legacy stemming from the Soviet Union’s ideology-driven support for the African continent.
National Resistance Center: Russia relocated 100,000 Central Asian migrants to Ukraine. Russia is trying to alter the demographics in occupied regions of Ukraine by relocating 100,000 migrants from Central Asia, a Ukrainian government agency claimed on Nov. 29. The Center for National Resistance says Moscow plans to mobilize them in exchange for Russian citizenship. According to RFE/RL, hundreds of Central Asian workers have been hired by Russian companies to work in Russia-occupied Ukrainian territory.
Today, the Russian Supreme Court is expected to recognise the LGBT community as an “international extremist movement” following a motion filed by the Justice Ministry earlier this month. The very identity of millions of people will be categorised as a crime against the state. Those same people will face punitive legislation. The persecution of LGBT people in Russia is on a par with the terror the world’s most repressive regimes unleash against their people. Russians are now being persecuted simply for who they are, as was the case in the totalitarian dictatorships of the 20th century.
A new low for Italians: Solovyov invited pro-Russian propagandist, Italian ‘political scientist, Francesco Teti, on his prime time on Russian state TV. They talked about why Donetsk and Luhansk should be considered Russian and then went on to threaten Italians and the Italian press. Notice how Teti smiles and nods smugly.
Italy has churned out quite a few pro-Kremlin TV personalities: it’s part of the Russian propaganda campaign. Italian authorities have done nothing to curb their appearances (including representatives from the Russian Ministry of Defence’s media arm, Zvedva TV, or the Foreign Ministry) because we live in a democratic society that must respect the plurality of voices, as per the Intelligence Oversight Committee’s (COPASIR) findings. They are fully aware of the danger they pose to democracy in Italy and prefer to call Italian TV executives for briefings.
EU reshipping over 20% of Russian LNG imports to other parts of the world. Europe is reshipping 20% of its imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) to other parts of the world, helping Russia maximize its fossil fuel revenues, the Financial Times reported on Nov. 29.
Fico: Slovakia should prepare for normalization of relations with Russia. Slovakia should prepare for "the end of the war in Ukraine and for the standardization of Slovak-Russian relations," Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Nov. 30.
Allied Support
Kuleba meets with Stoltenberg, discusses Euro-Atlantic defense industry. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg agree that Euro-Atlantic defense industries need to work together as one system to increase arms supplies, Kuleba said on a visit to the NATO Headquarters in Brussels on Nov. 29.
Media: European arms industry calls for 'orders, not just targets.' The European defense industry is calling for more firm "orders, not just targets," Reuters reported on Nov. 30, citing the European Aerospace, Security, and Defence Industries lobby group ASD.
Poll: Only 5% of Ukrainians oppose joining EU, NATO. In total, 78% of Ukrainians would vote to join the EU if a referendum were held now and 77% are in favor of joining NATO, according to a poll released by the Rating Sociology Group on Nov. 29.
EU Council president, Charles Michel, called today for a defence union, underscoring the need to both continue supporting Ukraine and ensuring Europe’s own security. Speaking at a defence conference, Michel said “the time has come to create a real union of defence coupled with a true defence single market”. He also called for more effective coordination of European defence spending, as well as a greater role for the European Defence Agency and ramping up financing for the defence industry.
Commitment to Ukraine needs to be 'rock solid', EU Commission chief says.
EU Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, underlined the importance of sustained aid to Ukraine.
“The strategic environment around us has fundamentally changed,” she said. “This creates a new kind of responsibility for Europe. I call it strategic responsibility. It is a responsibility, first of all, to support Ukraine in this war, for as long as it takes.” The commission president added:
This will not be easy – but it is exactly when our commitment needs to be rock solid.
Russia is now reinforcing its positions. Trying to re-take the initiative. And this means that the situation on the battlefield remains very challenging. But this is not an argument against support. On the contrary, it is an argument for more support.
Because let’s not forget … Currently, Putin does not even control all the territories he has already annexed. Ukraine has driven Russia out of half the territories captured after February 2022. Ukraine has even pushed the Russian fleet in the Black Sea back and is able to deliver grain again through this maritime corridor. Finland has become a NATO member, with a long border with Russia. Sweden soon will be. Ukraine is on its way to EU membership. And the Kremlin has deprived itself of access to Western economies and innovation systems and made itself dependent on China.
We have achieved a lot together. And all these are good arguments for sustained support to Ukraine.
At the same time, we must also look at Ukraine’s security in the medium and long term. Ukraine must have the capabilities to deter further attacks by Russia. And this is why the EU’s future security commitments to Ukraine are so vital.
The French authorities are close to agreeing and concluding a bilateral agreement with Ukraine on security guarantees for our state. Arrangements may be made early next year.
Telegraph: UK Foreign Secretary urges allies to ramp up arms production for Ukraine. U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron urged NATO members to increase weapons production to boost Ukraine in its fight against Russia, The Telegraph reported on Nov. 29. The 31 allied countries should use their combined economic strength to outlast Moscow, Cameron said at a private session during a NATO meeting in Brussels, according to the news outlet.
Minister: Microsoft to provide free cloud services to Ukrainian government for another year. So far, Microsoft has provided Ukraine with $540 million in free services, technical support, equipment, and grants, Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.
Graphic showing how a significant portion of Ukraine funding is actually spent in the US, including key battleground states. Billions of dollars to US businesses, increasing or maintaining jobs for in various sectors.
Henry Kissinger died at the age of 100 on Nov 30. Kissinger once said that “if history teaches anything, it is that there can be no peace without equilibrium and no justice without restraint,” a view he championed as a foreign policy advisor from the ‘realist’ school. His thinking was rooted in 19th century Europe: the post-Napoleonic order we call ‘The Concert of Europe’, headed by figures such as Metternich and Castlereagh, who had established a period of prolonged peace.
As a guide to U.S. foreign policy, Kissinger believed the U.S. had to protect its own ‘vital interests’. To this end, the U.S. needed to be the balancing force between global spheres of influence and power. So the U.S. opened the door to China in the hopes of bringing it into the Western fold, eventually. China was supposed to serve as a counter ‘balance’ against Russian aggression. The Chinese got access to the WTO and the World Bank, university programmes, and sensitive U.S. military installations. By stealing technology and intelligence related to technology, they were able to bridge the gap in their own armaments industries. I won’t even get into the pharmacology industry. The realists also put American ideals and Soviet Imperialism (Communist regime) at the same level. Western democracies were no better than the Soviet system in other words.
The issue I have with the ‘realist’ and ‘neo-realist’ school (today) is that they don’t take into account that there are states that wish to expand without limits to their power. These states don’t fit into the model of ‘balance of power’ politics of the 19th century. They also believe, as Kissinger did, that there is no room for moral values in foreign policy, (“if they put Jews into gas chambers in the Soviet Union, it is not an American concern. Maybe a humanitarian concern.”) or other intangibles such as ideology, culture, emotions, and economics because these factors cannot be measured. They don’t see how honour, prestige, or religion could influence the decision-making process of global leaders.
It is said that before his death, Kissinger had changed his mind about Ukraine: "A peace process should link Ukraine to Nato, however expressed…. The alternative of neutrality is no longer meaningful, especially after Finland and Sweden joined Nato."
Are they really ‘peace’ movements?
After 1956, Soviet strategic aims were to weaken the U.S. and the support coming from its allies. In order to do so it set out to shape our perceptions of Soviet intentions. They wanted us to think they were not a threat, not expansionist in nature, and that they had ‘liberalised’ their regime. They purposefully penetrated the intelligentsia, movements, associations, the press and a myriad of other areas where ‘opinion-shapers’ worked. One of these was the peace movement.
While the majority of the participants in the peace movement were well-intentioned and good-hearted, many figures at the top of the movement were working as agents of influence for the Soviets. Especially in the 1960s, the aim of these agents of influence was to slow down the American capacity to defend itself by calling for disarmament at peace rallies and through their publications. The Soviets had no intention of disarming—the opposite was true—but they got everyone to think that they were and that the U.S. should. It was an operation of subversion and deception.
Hence Olga’s post. Investigation is necessary into the promoters of the ‘peace’ movements that have recently swept across the EU and the US. All the signs are there that the ‘protests’ are inorganic, as they recall the same tactics and messaging the KGB and their proxies used back in the 50s, 60s and 70s. The organisers may be disabusing the good-will of innocent people.
Honouring Euromaidan SOS
At that time, there were lawyers among us, but there was no advocate. So, the second post was an appeal to the lawyers who were willing to help for free. And it worked. We launched hotlines to help those who were beaten on the night of November 30, 2013.
Even in my wildest dreams, I couldn’t imagine that we’d be working 24/7 for several months and that hundreds and hundreds of beaten, arrested, tortured, and accused in fabricated criminal cases would be served by us every day. The relatives of the killed people followed them.
Several thousand people across the country joined us, and owing to them, Euromaidan SOS became a single window for all persecuted protesters in different regions.
This is a wonderful life-affirming story about the fact that freedom appears exactly where it is denied. Also, it is about the fact that when legal mechanisms do not work, you can still rely on people.
This photo is from our first press conference, when in response to the intimidation of the authorities, we went out in public to show: that is who we are, this is our name, and we are not afraid. We are always in touch whatever can happen.
Euromaidan SOS volunteers and all the people who helped and supported us, I thank you from the bottom of my heart and congratulate you on our anniversary.