Dec 12 Buonasera Mag
Day 292: Luhansk Melitopol Mariupol G7 Iran Skibitsky Iran Turkey Tajik Nikolenko GER 2billion BUL Sweden-A&Ps-Lautman Iacoboni Matviyishyn Zelenska Katerji Johnson Berlinski Qatar Snyder
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Ukraine has claimed to have struck a headquarters used by the paramilitary Wagner group in the occupied territories of the Luhansk region. Serhiy Haidai, the exiled governor of the Luhansk region, told Ukrainian television that a strike in the town of Kadiivka, had led to a “huge number” of deaths among the mercenary group that has been accused of torture and other war crimes.
According to witnesses 10 explosions were heard, in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, although some of those may have been from Russian anti-aircraft systems. Ukrainian officials claimed scores of Russian dead and injured while Russia conceded a handful of casualties.
Reznikov: Ukrainian counteroffensive likely to resume when ground freezes. Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on Dec. 11 that he predicts Ukraine’s military will resume its counteroffensive when the ground freezes, allowing for the easier transfer of equipment.
Russia increases military activity in Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast. Petro Adriushchenko, an advisor to Mariupol’s mayor, said on Dec. 11 that Russia has intensified its military presence in the city.
Biden, Zelensky hold phone call ahead of G7 summit. President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had spoken with U.S. President Joe Biden late on Dec. 11 ahead of the upcoming Group of 7 summit. The two discussed further defense cooperation and Ukraine's energy security, as well as Ukraine's "ten-step peace formula."
Russian forces shell rescuers delivering water in embattled Bakhmut. No casualties were reported following the shelling on Dec. 11, but the State Emergency Service's vehicle was damaged, according to the report.
Russia trying to get ‘hundreds of ballistic missiles’ from Iran, says UK. The UK’s ambassador to the UN, Barbara Woodward, said Russia is attempting to obtain more weapons from Iran, including hundreds of ballistic missiles. Moscow is offering Tehran an “unprecedented level” of military and technical support in return for it supplying weapons for the war in Ukraine, Woodward told reporters.
US warns Russia is ‘expanding its nuclear arsenal’. The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has warned that Russia is expanding and modernising its nuclear arsenal while President Vladimir Putin engages in “deeply irresponsible nuclear sabre-rattling”.
Russia has claimed that the US is not being constructive in talks in Istanbul between the two countries. Diplomats met in Turkey on Friday to discuss a number of areas in their relationship against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, although a US embassy spokesperson said that Ukraine was not discussed. Areas that were tabled to be talked about were visas, embassy staffing levels and the work of their institutions and agencies abroad.
Ukraine’s deputy head of military intelligence has warned that Russia has enough missiles to launch another three to five waves of strikes. Vadym Skibitsky also claimed Russia is using old Ukrainian missiles against Kyiv and outlined the four general directions from which Russia is launching missiles into Ukraine.
Dozens of Tajik migrants work in the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol in Ukraine, after being hired by Russian construction companies pledging high salaries and other benefits. But some of the workers say they want to leave Mariupol and warn others to beware of false promises.
Moscow transportation authorities have removed city bus ads recruiting Central Asian nationals into the Russian military with promises of expedited citizenship, media reported Sunday. The ads had been requested by and strategically placed on buses bound for the Sakharovo migration center, where Mayor Sergei Sobyanin opened a military recruitment site for foreigners in September. Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan authorities have warned their citizens that fighting for the Russian army in Ukraine would subject them to criminal prosecution at home.
Putin could use peace talks with Ukraine as a cover to rearm, recruit troops. Peace talks can "just be a fig leaf for Russian rearmament and further recruitment of soldiers, whether that be from the Wagner Group or trawling prisons in Russia," U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said.
Russia wants to turn Ukraine into a “dependent dictatorship” like Belarus, the wife of jailed Belarusian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Byalyatski said on Saturday upon receiving the prize on his behalf, speaking his words.
ISW: Belarus unlikely to invade Ukraine due to internal dynamics within country. Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko does not intend to enter the war in Ukraine due to the possibility of renewed domestic unrest if his security apparatus is weakened through participation in a costly war in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War said in the latest report.
Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Oleg Nikolenko, said its embassy in Greece has received an anonymous “bloody package” in what Kyiv has described as a “campaign of terror and intimidation”.
Germany to supply Ukraine with 18 howitzers, other military equipment. The German government has announced it is preparing the delivery of 18 RCH-155 self-propelled howitzers, 80 pickup trucks, 90 anti-drone sensors and jammers, two hangar tents, and seven load-handling trucks to Ukraine.
The EU has agreed an extra €2bn for a fund that has been used to supply Ukraine with weapons. EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday signed off the money for the “European Peace Facility”, a fund that has been largely used to reimburse member states for supplying Ukraine with weapons and non-lethal military kit.
Bulgaria will send its first military aid to Ukraine, mainly light weaponry and ammo. The Bulgarian parliament voted on Dec. 9 to approve a list of arms proposed by the country’s interim government.
Sweden to allocate new military aid package for Ukraine, invest in regional security. “Ukraine is a priority for Sweden,” Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonsson said during a joint briefing with Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov in Odesa on Dec. 11.
State energy operator receives loans of 400 million euros to repair grid after Russian attacks. The package includes a 300 million euro loan from EBRD, a 72 million euro grant from the government of the Netherlands, and a 32.5 million euro loan from a German bank.
G7 calls for selection of Constitutional Court judges with crucial role for independent experts. G7 ambassadors commented on a bill on the selection of Ukrainian Constitutional Court judges that is expected to be considered by the Verkhovna Rada next week.
Foreign Ministry: Germans receive fake letters from Ukrainian consulate. The fabricated letters from Ukraine's Consulate General in Dusseldorf invite German citizens to join the International Legion in Ukraine for a financial award, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko reported on Dec. 9. He said that the Ukrainian diplomatic mission never sent such messages.
From former PM Boris Johnson on Ukraine…
Boris Johnson has urged western countries to “look urgently” at what more they can do to support Ukraine in the hopes of ending the war against Russia as soon as next year:
There is no land-for-peace deal to be done, even if Mr Putin were offering it and even if he were to be trusted, which he is not. Since the war can end only one way, the question is how fast we get to the inevitable conclusion.
It’s in everyone’s interest, including Russia’s, that the curtain comes down as soon as possible on Mr Putin’s misadventure. Not in 2025, not in 2024, but in 2023.
The longer Mr Putin continues with his senseless attacks, the longer the global economic haemorrhage will continue as well. Are we really going to wait and let this thing drift until Mr Putin has regained some of his leverage?
It is time to look urgently at what more the west can do to help the Ukrainians achieve their military objectives, or at least to kick the Russians out of all the territories invaded this year.
That’s the only plausible basis on which a conversation about the future could begin.
Claire Berlinski, New Caesars: Hungary Edition, Part II- The Cosmopolitan Globalists
Hungary in the twentieth century and Viktor Orbán
At the dawn of the twentieth century, a dozen distinct ethnic groups lived under the dual monarchy of Austria-Hungary, speaking at least sixteen languages. Germans and Hungarians, together, made up 44 percent of its peoples, and power was concentrated in their hands.
After the 1867 compromise, ethnic Hungarians intensified an often repressive campaign of Magyarization, causing bitter resentment. By 1906, the tempo of nationalist uprisings and terrorism in the Austro-Hungarian empire was quickening. The Archduke Franz Ferdinand was uneasily aware that two ethnic groups could not forever dominate the others.
Alexander Gale, Qatar World Cup Corruption Scandal: European Parliament VP, Eva Kaili, Detained- Greek Reporter
Eva Kaili, a Vice-President of the European Parliament from Greece, has been placed in detention by Belgian authorities; suspected to be involved in a bribe scandal related to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
According to a report by Le Soir, Kaili and at least four others have been detained by agents of the Central Office for the Suppression of Corruption in Brussels. The arrests are believed to have taken place after the individuals accepted bribes from a “Gulf state”.
Pier-Antonio Panzeri was another name brought up in connection with the investigation. He is a former MEP for the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) party. The four individuals originally under investigation are all believed to be Italian citizens.
Greece freezes all assets of European Parliament vice president Eva Kaili after Qatar-linked graft charges. “The charges against the MEPs have already triggered resignations and the suspension of a parliamentary vote on granting Qatari nationals visa-free travel to the bloc, due next week.”
Timothy Snyder, Ivan Ilyin, Putin’s Philosopher of Russian Fascism- New York Books
The Russian looked Satan in the eye, put God on the psychoanalyst’s couch, and understood that his nation could redeem the world. An agonized God told the Russian a story of failure. In the beginning was the Word, purity and perfection, and the Word was God. But then God made a youthful mistake. He created the world to complete himself, but instead soiled himself, and hid in shame. God’s, not Adam’s, was the original sin, the release of the imperfect. Once people were in the world, they apprehended facts and experienced feelings that could not be reassembled to what had been God’s mind. Each individual thought or passion deepened the hold of Satan on the world.
The Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, who was released from US detention in a high-profile prisoner swap last week, has joined the Kremlin-loyal ultranationalist Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), its leader said.