Dec 13: E-Stories
Day658 Olympics Kyiv RUattacks CyberAttacks WhiteAngels CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies Zelensky US EU NOR SWE DEN FIN A&Ps Avdeeva IWS UKDef Kenyon Davis Hill Politico CDSReport Schmitt MacKay
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Boycott the Olympics.
Stories we’re following…
Russia attacks Odesa, injuring 2. Russian forces launched a drone attack in Odesa during the evening on Dec. 12, injuring 2 civilians, the Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine reported on Telegram.
CDS Up-date: According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 125 towns and villages and 32 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons.
A Russian missile attack overnight targeting the Ukrainian capital damaged a children’s hospital, with Kyiv’s mayor reporting at least 51 people injured in the “enemy attack.” Ukraine’s air defence systems downed all 10 ballistic missiles targeting the capital at about 3 a.m, it said on Telegram.
Zelensky stresses US aid importance in address to Senate. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered his address to the U.S. Senate on Dec. 12, emphasizing the crucial role of Washington's support.
"A friendly, frank meeting in the U.S. Senate, which is an important affirmation of Ukraine's support in the fight for independence, freedom and democracy," Zelensky wrote on social media. "(I) told senators about the current security and economic situation in Ukraine, the importance of maintaining vital American support."
US speaker Mike Johnson has reasserted his hardline stance on the border issues that are holding up an agreement on US aid for Ukraine. Republicans senators left the meeting with Zelensky unmoved from their position that border security policy be paired with the aid to Ukraine, the Associated Press reports.
“The border is an absolute catastrophe,” he said and made clear that issue would be the priority for House Republicans. “These are the conditions of the American people,” he added “We are resolute on that”.
Oleksiy Danilov, who coordinates Ukraine’s war cabinet, has spoken to BBC News before the meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Joe Biden. He said:
If it happens so that we receive a gift before Christmas, we will be happy with that. But if it will happen a bit later, then it shouldn’t be made into a tragedy …
Will Putin destroy us before humanity’s eyes? Will he be killing our children, our women, our elderly men? And will the whole world watch with their eyes closed? Then the question should be, in what world do we live?
In a joint press conference with Zelenskiy, Biden said: “Russian loyalists in Moscow celebrated when Republicans voted to block Ukraine’s aid last week. The host of a Kremlin-run show said: ‘Well-done Republicans, that’s good for us.’”
Maria Adveeva: How do people choose places to live in Kyiv these days? Opting for a high floor, proximity to energy infrastructure, or a house in the path of Russian missiles and drones is seen as a bad choice. Yet, all precautions don’t guarantee that one morning you won’t wake up to this.
Prosecutor's Office: Russian attacks on Kupiansk district kill 2, injure 2. Russian forces struck Kupiansk and the village of Podoly nearby, killing two people and wounding another two, the Prosecutor General's Office reported on Dec. 9.
8 injured, 1 killed in Russian missile strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The number of people injured in a Russian missile attack against Dnipropetrovsk Oblast's Pavlohrad district on Dec. 8 has risen to eight, Governor Serhii Lysak reported.
Death toll in Russian strike on Donetsk Oblast rises to 5. Forensic experts identified the body of the fifth victim of Russia's Nov. 29 missile strike on Novohrodivka in Donetsk Oblast, the National Police reported on Dec. 8.
Ambassador: Russia holds 500 Ukrainian medical workers captive. Russia holds 500 Ukrainian medical workers in detention, Ukraine's representative in the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said on Dec. 8, calling it a violation of the Geneva Conventions.
Ukraine’s first lady, Olena Zelenska, has warned that Ukrainians are in “mortal danger” of being left to die if western countries do not continue their financial support, in an interview with the BBC.
We really need the help. In simple words, we cannot get tired of this situation, because if we do, we die. And if the world gets tired, they will simply let us die.
It hurts us greatly to see the signs that the passionate willingness to help may fade. It is a matter of life for us. Therefore, it hurts to see that.
Massive cyberattack reported on Ukrainian bank, phone operator. Massive cyberattacks hit the largest Ukrainian telecommunications company, Kyivstar, and one of the country's largest banks, Monobank, on Dec. 12.
Listen please. This is the sound many Ukrainians hear every evening.
A coalition conference led by Germany and France was held in Berlin, which intends to strengthen air defense in Ukraine.
Dec 13: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his critical priority was to strengthen Ukrainian air defence.
“Today we talked and will talk about such specific things that can save thousands and thousands of Ukrainian lives, as well as increasing pressure on the aggressor,” Zelenskiy told a joint news conference with Norwegian prime minister Jonas Gahr Stoere and other Nordic leaders in Oslo, as he called for more support for Kyiv in its war with Russia.
Combat Situation Update
Russian forces in southern Ukraine have “advanced considerably” around the village of Novopokrovka in the Zaporizhzhia region, Moscow’s occupational authorities have said. “Our units have advanced significantly forward north-east of Novopokrovka,” the Moscow-installed head of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia region, Yevgeny Balitsky, wrote on Telegram.
CDS Up-date: In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) "Khortytsia" on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 Russian attacks in the area of Synkivka and northwest of Petropavlivka.
On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 enemy attacks in the areas of Spirne and Vesele.
On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 14 enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka and Pivnichne.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on the achieved positions.
In the operational zone of the "Odesa" OSG, on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River and to conduct counter-battery warfare and inflict damage on the enemy's rear areas.
General conclusion:
Russian forces are concentrating efforts to the north and west of Bakhmut.
The Russian military command did not allocate a sufficient number of electronic warfare (EW) complexes along the front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast to counteract Ukrainian drones.
Ukraine has hit one of the Russian Artemis oil refinery, in Makiivka.
Scholz: Germany's 2nd Patriot to be deployed in Ukraine by this year's end. An additional Patriot air defense system pledged by Berlin several months ago will be deployed in Ukraine and operational by the end of 2023, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Dec. 13, RBC Ukraine reported.
Behind the Lines
CDS Up-date: The majority of multi-story buildings in the self-proclaimed "Luhansk People's Republic" lack heating, resulting in documented cases of fatalities in the region. The conflict between the "Luhansk gas" enterprise, owned by the self-proclaimed LPR, and the occupying administration, which reportedly neglects payment for consumed natural gas, is cited as the cause of the crisis, the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported.
White Angels: Salvation on white ambulances. Policemen from different units rescued people where no one else could reach, which is why they were called "white angels". How did ordinary people become real superheroes?
Cyber units of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence attacked the tax system of Russia and managed to destroy the entire database and its backup copies. The intelligence adds that Russia will not be able to resuscitate its tax system fully, reports the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.
"During the special operation, military spies managed to break into one of the well-protected key central servers of the Federal Taxation Service (FTS of the Russian Federation), and then into more than 2,300 of its regional servers throughout Russia, as well as on the territory of temporarily occupied Crimea.
As a result of the cyberattack, all servers were infected with malware...
The Russians have been unsuccessfully trying to restore the work of the Russian tax authorities for the fourth day in a row. The experts say the paralysis in the work of the Federal Taxation Service of the Russian Federation will last at least a month. At the same time, resuscitation of the tax system of the aggressor state in full is impossible."
RFE/RL: Russian intelligence may receive data from Ukrainian surveillance cameras. A Schemes investigation found that footage from surveillance cameras with Russian software goes directly to servers in Moscow with ties to the FSB.
Prosecutors: Ukrainian spy who coordinated Russian attacks in Odesa identified. According to the prosecutors, the individual began spying for Russia in October and was tasked with taking pictures of the locations of Ukrainian troops, as well as defense and energy infrastructure in Odesa, which he then sent to his Russian contacts.
Hackers impersonated Ukrainian agencies in emails to Polish officials. Government employees in Poland and Ukraine received emails with subject lines related to "debts" and "legal claims," according to an investigation carried out by the Computer Emergency Response Team of Ukraine.
European Parliament members urge Duda, EU leaders to take action on Polish border blockade. A group of European Parliament members called on Poland’s President Andrzej Duda and EU leaders “to act decisively" to end the blockade of the Polish-Ukrainian border.
Finnish court orders Russian neo-Nazi fighter to remain in custody. Media outlet YLE reported. The decision came just three days after the Finnish Supreme Court ruled that Petrovsky cannot be extradited to Ukraine to stand trial because conditions in Ukrainian prisons do not meet standards set by the European Convention on Human Rights. The court released him but he was immediately re-arrested by the Finnish Border Guard.
Report: Russia has laundered $2.5 billion of African gold since February 2022. The Kremlin has laundered $2.5 billion of African gold since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to a report by an international group of researchers published on Dec. 12.
Tymofiy Milonavov: Russia increasing capabilities
The West has a blind spot and needs to realize Russia's transformation. It's no longer just a nation with unlimited numbers of bodies for cannon fodder; it's now adept with advanced drones, from Shaheds to Lancets, and AI-driven tech for warfare.
I hope Zelensky during his visit to the US will be able to explain this to the Washington establishment. The world must see beyond just supporting Ukraine. Russia is honing high tech skills in the Ukraine conflict, outpacing NATO in both human and technological warfare.
If Russia isn't quickly checked, it will grow stronger, gaining an unprecedented bargaining edge over NATO. If Russia's technological development persist, future talks won't just be about Ukraine's borders but about limiting NATO's presence in Eastern Europe.
Russia now mass-produces Lancet attack drones, along with Orlans and Mavics, in gigafactories far from the frontline. Soon, Shaheds will join the lineup. These drones are resistant to electronic suppression. By contrast, Russia successfully surpasses their Western counterparts.
At this moment, Russia has no incentive to stop and negotiate. It will continue to produce drones and destroy western equipment in Ukraine, until there is not much left.
The issue is not any more about providing Ukraine with a good western weapons in large quantities, but about developing and strengthening Western capabilities in drone, robotic, and AI warfare. NATO is lagging behind and people are not seeing this.
There is an arrogant assumption that Russia will never be a match to NATO so there is nothing to worry about. It is not true as the history has shown time and again. Russia now has the opportunity to innovate, together with China and Iran, and test on the battlefield in Ukraine.
NATO doesn't exploit this opportunity. Russian is significantly improving its defense industrial base. NATO doesn't. NATO is hoping that its existing military advantage in technology and training will last. But hope is not a strategy. Instead, NATO must innovate and test.
NATO should also be serious about constraining the technological development of Russian defense sector. This means sabotaging and bombing factories, enforcing the sanctions, especially on technological goods, in earnest, and disrupting all technological supply chains.
But politicians in the West and perhaps some commanders don't appreciate the newly emerging technological capabilities of Russia. This may be a serious if not fatal mistake. The war in Ukraine should be understood in its broader significance and become a priority for NATO.
Meanwhile in Russia
Reuters: US intelligence reports Russia has lost 90% of original pre-invasion force in Ukraine. Russia has lost 315,000 troops in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion, representing nearly 90% of the military personnel it had in February 2022, Reuters reported on Dec. 12, citing a declassified U.S. intelligence report.
Russian cities cancel New Year celebrations to save money for war. Various officials have pledged to scale back traditional holiday festivities and fireworks displays in order to purchase military equipment to supply Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. (Me: boohoo)
Russia is recruiting foreign fighters detained in a recent sweep on the Finnish border. There is evidence of cases in which foreigners were put into a military camp on the border with Ukraine, days after they were picked up for breaching immigration laws.
US, South Korea, Japan pledge to increase cooperation, pressure on North Korea. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that the three countries planned to increase their trilateral cooperation to create a united front against the spectrum of North Korean hostile actions towards its neighbors in the region and the larger world. In particular, the officials said that North Korea was using cyber activities to fund its nuclear program.
Allied Support
US imposes sweeping sanctions targeting Russia over its war in Ukraine. The US has imposed sanctions on hundreds of people and entities, including in China and Turkey, as it targets Russia’s sanctions evasion. The treasury and state departments targeted more than 250 individuals and entities, Reuters reports.
“We will continue to use the tools at our disposal to promote accountability for Russia’s crimes in Ukraine and those who finance and support Russia’s war machine,” the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said.
The US DoD officially confirmed a new aid package to Ukraine worth up to $200 million, to be provided from DoD inventories.
White House: Costs of not supporting Ukraine too high to pay.
"If you think the cost of supporting Ukraine is high now, think about how high it’s going to be in national treasure and in American blood if we have to start acting on our Article Five commitments," U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said.
US House passes bill banning import of uranium from Russia. The U.S. House of Representatives voted on Dec. 11 to pass a bill banning the import of Russian uranium. A majority of uranium used by the U.S. is purchased from abroad. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that in 2022, 12% of the total amount of uranium used by nuclear power plants in the U.S. was purchased from Russia, making it the third largest supplier.
President Zelensky addressed the Defence College on Dec 11:
EU diplomats are discussing technical proposals to raise emergency funding for Ukraine outside of the bloc’s shared budget, as Hungary vowed it would not yield to pressure to drop its veto on a support package critical for Kyiv, the Financial Times reported this morning.
EU leaders are gathering today at a summit, where Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán plans tod block Brussels’ bid to provide a critical €50bn financial aid lifeline to Ukraine and approve formal talks on the country joining the EU.
EU officials are working on possible solutions to overturn Hungary’s block on the package, which require unanimity, including the release of bloc funds earmarked for Budapest but currently frozen on rule of law concerns.
Diplomats have also begun private talks on a potential financial package between the other 26 members, people briefed on the discussions told the Financial Times. This would provide Kyiv with emergency funding for at least a year.
Denmark’s government will present a new support package for Ukraine worth 1 billion euros ($1.08 billion) to parliament on Thursday, prime minister Mette Frederiksen said on Wednesday at a press conference in Oslo with Nordic leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Oslo.
Nordic leaders highlighted this is a “crucial point” in the war as they announced how they would be sending new support packages to Ukraine as they pledged continued support for “years” ahead.
Jonas Gahr Støre, the Norwegian prime minister, said the countries had discussed how they could “confirm, maintain and increase our support to Ukraine at this very critical moment of Ukraine’s fight for its own independence and freedom.” He pledged to continue their support “for the long run”, adding: “President Zelenskiy, we support your peace formula.”
Petteri Orpo, the Finnish prime minister, urged more European countries to take industrial production of armament seriously, as his country announced it would be doubling its own production. “Times have changed”, he said, urging Europe to adapt.
Denmark is spearheading the reconstruction of war-torn Mykolaiv Oblast, investing in local businesses, and aiming to rebuild the commercial landscape to benefit both nations economically.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the SPD party conference on Saturday reiterates Germany’s support, which must be increased, for Ukraine.
Germany hands over shells, drones, other equipment in latest delivery to Ukraine. The delivered items included 11 reconnaissance drones, six border protection vehicles, eight off-road Zetros trucks, 100,000 first aid kits and other medical materials, 33 GMG automatic grenade launchers, and additional 155mm artillery shells.
German drone manufacturer joins Diia City to produce drones in Ukraine. Quantum Systems hopes its residency in Diia City will help it establish drone production facilities in Ukraine and launch a research and development center.
EU ambassador: Moldova can join EU without Transnistria. “We wouldn't see it (as) fair if (Moldova) is taken hostage by the solution to this quite complex problem," said the EU's ambassador to Moldova, Janis Mazeiks.
Bulgaria's defense committee backs air defenses, F-16 training for Ukraine. The Bulgarian parliament's defense committee approved on Dec. 7 the provision of older, faulty air defenses to Ukraine, as well as assistance with F-16 training, the Bulgarian National Radio reported.
UK sanctions 17 members of Belarusian judiciary over role in politically-motivated cases. The U.K. announced sanctions on Dec. 8 against 17 members of the Belarusian judiciary, including judges, prosecutors, and an investigator, for their involvement in politically-motivated cases. The sanctioned individuals had been involved in cases against "political activists, independent journalists, and human rights defenders."
Tusk says Orban government 'openly' supports Russian positions. "(Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor) Orban does not hide it," Donald Tusk added, saying, "his relationship with Moscow is organic."
Zelensky signs 4 laws required for EU accession. However, the law on reforming the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) signed by Zelensky failed to fully repeal the so-called Lozovyi's amendments, which are thought to help those suspected or accused of corruption to avoid responsibility.
Zelensky held important meetings with the presidents of Paraguay, Uruguay and Ecuador, while he was in Argentina to witness the swearing-in of Argentina’s new president, Javier Milei. Zelenskiy also said he had spoken on the phone with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, updating him on frontline developments and thanking him for France’s military aid.
We’ll Be at Each Others’ Throats: Fiona Hill on What Happens If Putin Wins—Politico
It was nearly two years ago that Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and in recent months, the fighting appears to have ground to a stalemate. Aid from the United States has helped Ukraine get this far — but now Americans are asking, how long should they continue to support Ukraine in its war against Russia? At this point, just what are the stakes for the United States?
Since the war began, I’ve turned to Fiona Hill periodically for insight into what’s driving Russian President Vladimir Putin, and where America’s interests lie. She’s a keen observer not just of Russia and its leader, but also of American politics, having served in the White House as a top adviser to both Democrats and Republicans, including President Donald Trump. Since she left the Trump administration (and after a star turn testifying in his first impeachment), she’s become a highly sought-out voice on global affairs as well as the domestic roots of authoritarianism in countries around the world.
When we spoke this week, she made clear that the decision of whether Ukraine wins or loses is now on us — almost entirely. As Congress debates how much more money to authorize for Ukraine’s assistance amid growing Republican opposition, she says that what we are really debating is our own future. Do we want to live in the kind of world that will result if Ukraine loses?
Hill is clear about her answer. A world in which Putin chalks up a win in Ukraine is one where the U.S.’s standing in the world is diminished, where Iran and North Korea are emboldened, where China dominates the Indo-Pacific, where the Middle East becomes more unstable and where nuclear proliferation takes off, among allies as well as enemies.
“Ukraine has become a battlefield now for America and America’s own future — whether we see it or not — for our own defensive posture and preparedness, for our reputation and our leadership,” she told me. “For Putin, Ukraine is a proxy war against the United States, to remove the United States from the world stage.”