EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
What a momentous day! Congrats to all our friends in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia!
The State Emergency Service showed a video of the consequences of the Russian attack on the Odesa region.
Stories we’re following…
Zelensky: 'There will be a response' to Russian overnight attacks on Kyiv. "Russia has proven once again that it is a heinous country that fires missiles at night, trying to hit residential areas, kindergartens, and energy facilities during the winter," said President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Media: Polish border crossing unblocked, transit resumes. With the blockage cleared, trucks may resume transit through the border "without any difficulties," Polish police said. Local Polish authorities added that there is still a long line, and it may take as long as 32 hours to cross the border.
A big attack overnight Wednesday. Russia launched 42 Shahed drones mainly directed for Odesa. In total, 41 were shot down. Also 6 S-300 missiles were launched of which the impact is still being determined.
Combat Situation Update
ISW: The return of the Kremlin’s notion of a “partitioned Ukraine”is likely an organized effort to mislead the international community into rejecting key components of Ukraine’s sovereignty: its territorial integrity as defined in 1991 and its right to self-determination.
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev misrepresented US Pres. Biden’s response to a media question about whether the US policy is to win the war or help Ukraine to defend itself during a joint press conference with UKR Pres. Zelensky on Dec. 12.
CDS Up-date: In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) "Khortytsia," on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 8 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Ivanivka.
On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 enemy attacks in the Makiyivka area.
On the Bakhmut direction, the Defense Forces units repelled 4 enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 37 enemy attacks in the areas east of Novokalynove.
General conclusion:
The resources deployed by the Russian Armed Forces for the offensive in Ukraine and the incurred losses by their invading force grouping do not align with the attained outcomes.
Russia's current offensive operations do not have a direct operational military objective but solely pursue internal Russian political goals.
Russian ground forces have lost over a quarter of their military equipment reserves prior to the invasion, reducing the complexity and scale of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine (U.S. intelligence assessment).
Fundamentally, Synkivka retains crucial significance for securing access to the proximate approaches to Kupyansk from the north, and the adversary has failed to achieve even tactical success in this direction.
Noel Reports: "The Armed Forces of Ukraine are building additional defensive structures on the northern border," Commander of the United Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Gen. Serhiy Naev said.
Behind the Lines
CDS Up-date: In [Russia-occupied] Luhansk, Russian occupation authorities have begun installing facial recognition surveillance cameras. Similar systems are deployed in major cities in Russia, enabling the FSB to maintain total control over the population. The system allows identification of individuals and most likely will be used for identifying deserters and exerting control over the population.
This is Bakhmut. This is what happens when the Russians move in.
On the morning of December 13, hearings began at the European Court of Human Rights in a case where Ukraine accuses Russia of systemic human rights violations in the occupied Crimea. This intergovernmental case is based on applications filed in March 2014, August 2015, and August 2018.
Kyivstar CEO: Hackers used compromised employee account to carry out attack. Russian hackers broke through Kyivstar's cyber security through the compromised account of one of the company's employees, Kyivstar CEO Oleksandr Komarov said on air on Dec. 13.
The passage of trucks from Ukraine to Slovakia has been partially resumed, the Ukrainian State Border Service reports. "As of 06:00 at the Uzhhorod checkpoint, 28 trucks were registered for departure from Ukraine. 24 of them have already passed all types of control on the Slovak side."
Arriving at the EU Council summit in Brussels, Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán told that there had been many negotiations and Hungary's position was clear. "When it comes to EU membership, the prerequisites for Ukraine have not been met, there is no reason to negotiate."
European Council President Charles Michel, French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz met with Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán before the start of the EU leaders' summit. Orban made clear he will 'not budge' on the Ukrainian issue.
Austria blocked the 12th package of EU sanctions against Russia. Vienna is seeking the removal of Raiffeisen Bank International from the Ukrainian blacklist of “war sponsors” in exchange for signing new sanctions, the agency reported Reuters with links to sources. The agency notes that this gesture confirms Austria's refusal to withdraw the business of the Raiffeisen banking group from Russia. Previously, Hungary had already obtained from Ukraine an exclusion from the blacklist of the Hungarian OTP bank.
Me: Austria and Hungary love blocking everything. Tells you a whole lot on which side their bread is buttered. Austria is officially neutral in terms of their relationship to EU members vis-a-vis the war in Ukraine, but it has long-standing ties to Russia historically.
The European Greens have spoken out against Viktor Orbán’s position on Ukraine, calling for an end to unanimity voting on EU foreign policy decisions. European Green co-presidents Thomas Waitz and Mélanie Vogel said:
This case, where a single leader can act as a Trojan horse for Putin, and block the whole process of helping Ukraine, shows once again that the need for unanimity among European member states on foreign policy issues prevents the EU from taking the right decisions.”
The European Green Party is in favour of ending the risk of national vetoes on foreign policy, by replacing the unanimity rule by a qualified majority voting rule.
This will be one of the proposals in the Green Election Manifesto, our political platform for the next European elections.
Meanwhile in Russia
Noel Repots: A summary of Putin's quotes during a press moment on national Russian television.
Odesa is a Russian city, everyone knows about it, but they made up historical nonsense, and after the collapse of the USSR we came to terms with it.
The conflict with Ukraine is a tragedy and like a civil war between brothers. The southeast of Ukraine has always been pro-Russian, because these are historical Russian territories.
Russia, after the collapse of the USSR, came to terms with the departure of its original territories, but attached importance to the pro-Russian sentiments of southeastern Ukraine.
He furthermore said that Russia was forced to start hostilities and that after 2014, it became clear for Russia that normal relations with Ukraine would be impossible.
This was supposed to be the good Russian: The founder of Yandex, co-founder of the Dutch company Yandex NV, Arkady Volozh, appealed to the European Union Court with a request to lift Western sanctions against him. The businessman’s lawyers justified this by the fact that he condemned the war in Ukraine and is no longer related to the Russian Yandex.
Volozh took an “extremely bold step” by condemning the government’s “barbaric” war against Ukraine” and now lives under the “constant threat of retaliation” from Russia, lawyer William July said at the court hearing, as quoted by Bloomberg .
The Russian authorities are dramatically expanding the powers of the Central Bank, which is tasked with maintaining the exchange rate of the ruble until the presidential elections scheduled for spring. On Thursday, the State Duma adopted in the second, main readinga bill, which will allow the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to exclude any participant from trading, including foreign exchange market, as well as intervene in transactions at the clearing level.
South Korea sees signs North Korea is sending workers to Russia. The South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS) said that North Korea is allegedly sending workers to Russia, the Yonhap news agency reported on Dec. 12.
Hello Canada? Anyone listening?
Allied Support
President Zelensky addressed the EUCO on Dec 14. The European Council will be making a decision on the timetable of Ukraine’s accession negotiation as a future membership of Ukraine. The European Council summit brings together heads of state and government from 27 countries, plus the European Council and European Commission presidents. The high representative for foreign affairs and the Council’s secretary-general also attend, and the European parliament president joins as a guest.
In my address to the European Council, I stressed that this day will go down in our history. Today is the day when determination will either be in Brussels or Moscow. People in Europe won’t understand if Putin’s satisfied smile becomes the reward for the meeting in Brussels.
EU leaders have now started their discussions on enlargement and membership negotiation recommendations for Ukraine and Moldova and candidate status for Georgia. Sources say the leaders have already moved to a discussion on enlargement having achieved “broad agreement” among all 27 on the budget, or known as the Multiannual Financial Framework.
Asked about the prospect of a unanimous decision on continued support for Ukraine, European parliament president Roberta Metsola said she trusts Zelensky’s ability to persuade and the ability of other prime ministers to come around.
It is extremely important for Ukraine to continue to receive its financial help, in order for it to continue to defend itself in order to fight for our values.
But there is also our moral responsibility. And that responsibility means that we need to be able to take the next political step. I am realistic, I am but I’m not pessimistic.
Hungary is not the only member state questioning ‘fast-tracking’ Ukraine while leaving countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina behind.
Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Croatia, Italy, Greece, Hungary, Slovenia and Slovakia have noted in a summit of European affairs ministers earlier this week that “it is important that there is a balanced approach and the same standards and criteria are applied to all candidate countries”.
Me: we tend to focus on Hungary only when it comes to their anti-Ukrainian stance; however, Hungary can do so because it has the backing of other members that remain in the background. I brought this out in an E-Stories post a while ago. I’m sorry to see Italy as a signatory to this note.
The historic moment when Charles Michelannounces the EU will open accession talks with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia on European Union membership. I can’t begin to tell you the emotion in seeing this and thinking of how long these countries have been waiting for this day.
European leaders have revealed they have adopted the 12th round of sanctions against Russian individuals, public bodies and corporations involved in supporting the war in Ukraine. Details have not been released but the European Commission’s recommended package included proposals to choke off the commercial revenues earned from the Russian diamond trade and against individuals such as the son of Dimitry Medvedev.
US House passes bill banning import of uranium from Russia. The U.S. House of Representatives voted on Dec. 11 to pass a bill banning the import of Russian uranium. A majority of uranium used by the U.S. is purchased from abroad. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that in 2022, 12% of the total amount of uranium used by nuclear power plants in the U.S. was purchased from Russia, making it the third largest supplier.
Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson did not support a proposal to extend the work of both houses of the US Congress for a week to approve additional funding for Ukraine before Christmas.
Congress gridlocked one day before holiday break without Ukraine deal. U.S. congressmembers are scheduled to leave Washington, D.C. on Dec. 14 for a three-week holiday break, with no deal in sight.
180.000 projectiles are currently in the process of being transferred to Ukraine, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell told reporters in Brussels.
Estonia provides Ukraine with a new military aid package worth €80 million. It includes Javelin anti-tank missiles, machine guns, ammunition for light weaponry, various vehicles and vessels and diving equipment.
The Swedish Government approved a winter aid package to Ukraine intended for civil infrastructure worth €124 million, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson confirmed
FT: EU to propose plan to redirect 15 billion euros in projected profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. The Group of Seven (G7) nations said on Oct. 12 that it would hold frozen Russian assets in their jurisdictions, estimated to be around $280 billion, until Russia pays for the reparations and reconstruction of Ukraine.
Media: Austria posing obstacle to EU's 12th Russian sanctions package. Austria currently has reservations about the 12th package of EU sanctions against Russia, preventing the package from being officially approved, EU officials reportedly told the Austrian Press Agency on Dec. 13.
Germany delivers Patriot missile defense system, ammunition to Ukraine. Germany has handed over a Patriot air defense system, Patriot missiles, and more ammunition to Ukraine, the German government announced on Dec. 14.
“Enlargement is not a theoretical issue. Enlargement is a merit based, legally detailed process, which has preconditions. We have set up seven preconditions and even by the evaluation of the Commission, three out of the seven is not fulfilled. So there is no reason to negotiate membership of Ukraine.
He added in “my estimation” there were even more conditions Ukraine had not met, but “even three is enough to say that if you haven’t fulfilled the preconditions, there is no chance to start to negotiate.”
One the €50bn Ukraine fund, he is clear the EU can either continue with existing funds or find it outside the EU-wide budget - either way that means money from 26, not 27 member states.
“The money [for Ukraine] is already in the budget. So [there is] no extra decision to give it [the money] in the short term in longer term, long term and a bigger sum of money.
“My position is that we should give it outside but we are not under the pressure of the time because the bridging solution is already in the budget,” he added.
Me: Notice the wording of the statement and the hypocrisy. Notice that he isn’t speaking for Hungary—he’s speaking for himself.
The House voted Thursday to pass a critical defense policy bill known as the National Defense Authorization Act, which sets the policy agenda and authorizes funding for the Department of Defense annually.
The final negotiated version of the NDAA for fiscal year 2024 authorizes $886 billion in national defense funding, an increase of $28 billion over last year.
The sweeping legislation authorizes a 5.2% pay raise for members of the military – the largest raise for service members in more than two decades – as part of a wide range of provisions related to service member pay and benefits, housing and childcare.
Me: generally, the international community considers a state to be serious about its defence (deterrence) if they are prepared to spend on their military posture. The less you spend, the less you are able to defend yourself in the event of war. The increase in defence spending is a clear signal to Russia and to China. It also addresses years of neglect for the military personnel. There will be changes to the US defence strategy as the war in Ukraine has brought back the need for conventional forces as well as the use of new technologies in warfare.
Programming notes…
Kyiv Independent: Mariana Mamonova was pregnant the entire time she was in Russian captivity. They finally released her in her 9th month of pregnancy.
This series is superb. It’s not easy watching considering the horrific experiences these Ukrainians have had to live through. The least we can do is bear witness to their stories.
