Dec 16: E-Stories
Day659 Kyiv Nikopol CombatSit Donetsk Melitopol BehindLines InRussia Hungary Allies EU US-NATO BUL Argentina McGonigal China A&P KyivIndie MacKay UKDef Scherba Brink Kallas
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian shelling of Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast injures 2. Russian artillery attacks against Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on Dec. 15 injured an 83-year-old woman and her 16-year-old granddaughter, Governor Serhii Lysak reported.
Russian missile attack kills elderly woman in Kherson Oblast. As a result of the attack, a house and neighboring buildings were destroyed in the town of Myroliubivka, about 32 kilometers away northwest of the city of Kherson. The body of an elderly woman was found among the rubble of the house.
Hungary blocks 50-billion-euro EU aid for Ukraine. Hungary has obstructed the European Union's endorsement of a financial assistance package for Ukraine consisting of 50 billion euros ($55 billion), following EU leaders' formal approval to commence accession negotiations with Ukraine, marking a significant milestone for Kyiv in its efforts to strengthen support from its allies.
Combat Situation Update
On 15 December, 82 combat clashes were recorded at the front during the day. The Russian forces also conducted 17 attacks from multiple-launch missile systems, launched 2 missiles and 11 airstrikes, reports the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 15 December.
Rocket Forces hit four clusters of personnel, weapons and military equipment, as well as two ammunition storage points of the enemy."
On the Lyman front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled five attacks east of Terniv, Yampolivka, Donetsk Oblast, as well as Makiivka, Luhansk Oblast.
On the Bakhmut front, Ukrainian soldiers repelled 15 Russian attacks in the vicinity of Bohdanivka, Ivanove, Klischiivka and Andriivka, Donetsk Oblast.
On the Avdiivka front, the Russians unsuccessfully tried to break through the Ukrainian defences. Ukraine’s forces repelled 17 attacks east of Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka and 12 more east of Stepove, south of Sieverne and Pervomaiske, Donetsk Oblast.
On the Marinka front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to restrain the Russians in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Mariinka and Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast.
An explosion has been heard in temporarily occupied Sevastopol. Mikhail Razvozhayev, the self-proclaimed "governor" of Sevastopol, said it was a downed drone, reports Krym.Realii; Krymskii Veter; Razvozhayev on Telegram.
According to Krym.Realii, there were multiple rocket-propelled bomb launches in the city centre of Sevastopol, and then there was a loud explosion audible from the vicinity of the entrance to the main bay.
So-called "governor" Razvozhayev reported that Russian air defence had shot down one drone and "no damage to infrastructure was recorded".
On the eastern outskirts of Mariupol, the Ukrainian Defence Forces destroyed an army-level rear command post at roughly midnight. The fuel and lubricants depots and the parking lot of military and transport vehicles were hit by a single point attack. The enemy air defence did not respond.
In Melitopol, Ukrainian partisans carried out a successful sabotage and blew up a railway train that was carrying ammunition and fuel from Crimea to Melitopol and Dniprorudne every day.
Oil depot was struck in Donetsk on December 15.
Military intelligence: Putin exaggerates Russian numbers in Ukraine. There are around 450,000 Russian troops deployed in Ukraine, rather than 617,000 as Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed, the spokesperson of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), Andrii Yusov, said on Dec. 15.
German intelligence says that Russia creating a plan to capture Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Zaporizhya by 2026 and wants to use fake "peace talks" to give more time for Western aid to deteriorate.
Belarus launches sudden readiness check of air defenses. Belarus started a sudden readiness check of its air defense forces, involving anti-aircraft missile units and radio engineering troops, the country's defense ministry announced on Dec. 15.
Behind the Lines
Kyiv protesters demand higher city budget expenditures for military. Activists held demonstrations at the Kyiv city administration on Dec. 14, asking for a higher budget for military needs instead of repairs and infrastructure in the city.
Border Guard Service: Truck traffic across Slovak border partially resumes. Trucks were able to pass through the Uzhhorod-Vysne Nemecke border crossing as of Dec. 14, albeit at a slower pace of around 3-4 per hour. As of 6 a.m. local time, the border guard service said that 24 trucks have been cleared by Slovak border controls and another 28 were registered for departure from Ukraine.
A joint investigation by the DFRLab and BBC Verify has uncovered a covert Russian influence operation on TikTok targeting former Ukrainian defense minister Oleksii Reznikov and accusing him of corruption. Publishing videos in at least seven languages, the campaign accused Reznikov of purchasing luxury mansions and cars, implying that he and the Ukrainian government more broadly were profiting from the war. TikTok described it as the largest information operation ever uncovered on the platform and attributed it to a Russia-based covert operation.
Donetsk resident charged over allegedly fighting for Russia in Mariupol, elsewhere. A Donetsk resident was charged with treason over voluntarily fighting for Russian forces, namely in Mariupol and Volnovakha in Donetsk Oblast, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported on Dec. 14.
AP: A ballistic missile fired from Yemen struck a Liberian-flagged cargo ship Friday in the Red Sea near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, an assault that apparently sought to target a vessel struck earlier, a U.S. defense official said.
The official identified the vessel as the MSC Palatium III and said it remained unclear if anyone was hurt. The missile apparently was aimed at the Al Jasrah, which was set on fire by a projectile earlier Friday, the official said. Another missile launched in the salvo missed both ships.
The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters. MSC, the vessel’s operator, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen did not immediately acknowledge either attack.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia ends the year with the highest key rate since 2014. But then, as in the spring of 2022, the Central Bank quickly reduced the rate, but now there is no question of this. On the contrary, the Central Bank is trying its best to convince the market that this time high rates will remain for a long time.
“At the last meetings we raised the rate by tangible steps and will be ready to do it again if we do not see signs of a sustainable slowdown in inflation and a cooling of inflation expectations,” she warned< a i=2>Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina at the end of October after the Central Bank raised the key rate from 13% to 15%.
Julia Davis: Meanwhile in Russia—pundits on Vladimir Solovyov's show assert that Russia's victory means nothing less than the destruction of Ukraine. They also explain why Republicans are blocking additional funding to Ukraine.
Looking for spare parts: The Association of Air Transport Operators (AEVT), which includes the largest Russian airlines, proposed that the Federal Air Transport Agency include Indonesia, Ethiopia, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia and Pakistan in the list of countries from which aircraft components can be purchased. RBC reports.
The State Duma proposed strengthening the patriotic education of Russian schoolchildren and students through tourist tours to cities of military glory, including in the occupied territories of Ukraine.
In particular, deputies from the tourism committee recommended the Ministry of Education to include “patriotic tourism” in educational programs on history in schools, colleges and technical schools. According to parliamentarians, this will ensure “continuity of generations” and will allow “preserving the self-identity of the people and the state.”
Allied Support
The World Bank allocates an additional $1.34 billion to Ukraine. They will be directed to the payment of pensions, salaries and other priority areas, Prime Minister Shmyhal reports.
UK sanctions Russia's Novikombank. The U.K. extended its sanctions list to include Russia's Novikombank, a bank owned by the Russian state conglomerate Rostec, the U.K. government announced on Dec. 15.
The industrial bank, specializing in machinery, high-tech, and oil and gas industry, was "involved in obtaining a benefit from or supporting the government of Russia," the U.K. said.
US Senate to vote on Ukraine aid package next week. The U.S. Senate will reconvene next week to vote on a proposed Ukraine-Israel aid package, delaying the Senate's scheduled holiday recess, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced on Dec. 14.
EU agrees to 12th sanctions package against Russia. European Union countries have agreed to a 12th sanctions package against Russia, moving to ban the import of Russian diamonds among other measures, the European Council announced in a statement on Dec. 14.
'Strong will' to provide funds to Ukraine, Estonian PM says. Arriving at day two of the summit, Estonia’s Kaja Kallas said: “Yesterday we made a historic decision.” She added:
As you know, I wasn’t very optimistic. But we managed to do the decision. And we are happy about this.
What of course we have to work with is the financial support. What I can assure you that Ukraine will not be left without support. There was a strong will of 26 to provide this support, and there were different ways how we can do this. So will work this out. Probably we’ll have another meeting, maybe in January, to reach agreement on this.
A new summit to discuss financial support for Ukraine is planned for early new year, European Council President Charles Michel said on Friday at the end of a two-day meeting of EU leaders, Reuters reports.
"I am confident and optimistic that we will be in a position to fulfil our promise to support Ukraine with financial means," Michel said. He added that 26 member states had agreed so far.
The Bulgarian Parliament overwhelmingly voted in favor of aid to Ukraine amounting to 3.6 billion euros. This is a considerable sum for Bulgaria!
Japan has unveiled new sanctions on Russia, Belarus and organisations in the UAE, Armenia, Syria and Uzkekistan, over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. In total, Japan has now applied export bans on 494 Russian organisations and 27 Belarusian.
The Lithuanian army delivered several million cartridges and several thousand ammunition for portable short-range anti-tank grenade launchers to Ukraine. Also - about a thousand folding beds.
Milei's first act of friendship? According to Pucará Defense, the Argentine Air Force aims to complete the donation to Ukraine of two Mi-171E Multipurpose Helicopters that remained out of service.
The UK has extended its sanctions against the Russian Federation, banning the export of certain dual-use goods as well as the import of Russian diamonds, as per a UK government press release.
"This new package of sanctions [...] bans the export of a range of goods that carry a risk of military or industrial usage, as well as the latest items Ukraine has found on the battlefield, including machine parts and electronics. Given the low levels of UK-Russia trade, these sanctions will ensure we are able to continue depriving Russia of products it could use in its war.
Celebrations in Tblisi. The Georgian people have been fighting a long battle.
Finland to shut border crossings with Russia, day after reopening. U.S. congressmembers are scheduled to leave Washington, D.C. on Dec. 14 for a three-week holiday break, with no deal in sight.
Germany will supply Ukraine with 68.000 additional 155-mm shells to protect against Russia. The budget committee of the German Bundestag has approved a framework agreement on the production of artillery shells.
German drone manufacturer to open R&D center in Ukraine. German drone manufacturer Quantum Systems will open a research and development center in Ukraine, tech news outlet DOU reported on Dec. 14. Quantum Systems is the company behind advanced Vector reconnaissance drones, 152 of which have already been provided to Ukraine.
Australia announces $126 million expansion of training program for Ukrainian troops. The program, called Operation Kudu, is managed by the Australian Defense Forces and entails the deployment of Australian servicemen to multinational training missions in the U.K. for Ukrainian soldiers.
If you haven’t seen Servant of the People, it’s funny. This is Zelensky playing President Vasiliy Goloborodko. He gets a special call from Chancellor Angela Merkel. It is so appropriate given yesterday’s landmark EU Council decision, and Merkel historic reluctance to afford Ukraine EU accession or anything else for that matter. She was bent on appeasing Russia the whole time, and making sure Germany profitted from it.
Argentina is considering the possibility of donating two Mi-171E helicopters purchased in Russia to Ukraine, reports Pucara Defensa; Militarnyi. According to Pucara Defensa, the relevant agreements were reached during the visit of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Buenos Aires on 10 December. "Negotiations are currently underway on the terms of compensation to the Argentinian side for the transfer of helicopters to Ukraine."
Prince Harry has landed a significant blow in his battle with the British tabloid press, after winning a substantial part of his phone-hacking case and damages against the Daily Mirror.
In a judgment that will have profound implications for the British media landscape, a high court judge has ruled that there was “extensive” phone hacking by Mirror Group Newspapers from 2006 to 2011, “even to some extent” during the Leveson inquiry into media standards.
Kaja Kallas: Four pitfalls of Russian war policy
The Estonian Prime Minister warns in a guest article for the RND: “Russia is preparing for a long war against Ukraine.” So the EU needs a plan “for a long fight.” This includes preventing disinformation from the Kremlin that literally reaches “our pockets, cell phones and apps.”
“Russia is preparing for a long war against Ukraine. A quick victory is out of the question, so we must have a plan for a long fight. Uncertain times harbor many pitfalls.
There is the trap of hope: the false expectation of a quick solution. It is only human that we want this war to end quickly. When I am asked questions about Ukraine's counteroffensive, I always remind you that it has been going on since February 24, 2022. There is also hope for negotiations. This is the hope that our acceptance of a successful land grab in the 21st century would satisfy Russia's appetite. The desire to negotiate comes from those who want to stabilize relations with Russia at all costs.
“Resistance doesn’t provoke Russia – weakness does”
Then there is the trap of fear: the threats from the Russian leadership and the images of nuclear explosions on Russian state television are intended to frighten the free world and our people. By stoking fears, the Russian leadership wants to change the perception of the war in the transatlantic community.
This leads us into the trap of self-deterrence caused by fear of escalation. Because of this fear, some argue that helping Ukraine defend itself against aggression amounts to escalation. My answer to that: Defense is not a provocation. Resistance does not provoke Russia – weakness does.
Targeted disinformation campaigns on Telegram, Tiktok and Co.
Finally, there is the trap of disinformation. On the one hand, there is the conventional war against Ukraine. On the other hand, there is the Kremlin's shadow war, in which disinformation and data warfare represent another important front. The Kremlin's disinformation campaign reaches an enormous audience through social media - it's literally in our pockets, phones and apps.
Russia's campaign aims to discourage democratic leaders and societies from supporting Ukraine, provoke domestic political divisions and influence democratic votes - including the decisions we make at our polling stations. Since the invasion, the number of subscribers to Kremlin-backed accounts has more than tripled on Telegram, more than doubled on Tiktok and increased by almost 90 percent on YouTube, while Facebook has the largest audience for Kremlin-affiliated accounts.
“At its core, this is a battle of wills.”
We need to think about how we can stop bots and trolls from spreading disinformation. Online platforms have a special responsibility here. For this purpose, the European Union has passed the Digital Services Act. According to this, Meta, X and Tiktok are obliged to prevent illegal and harmful online activities and the spread of disinformation. However, there are other platforms, such as Telegram, that require increased attention.
At its core, this is a battle of wills. In this fight we should not fear our own strength. The latest trap of Russian disinformation is to make us believe that supporting Ukraine is a lost cause, that we will be the first to tire. We can prove otherwise!”
Warning: the video contains graphic content. In Zakarpattia Oblast in western Ukraine, one of the deputies detonated three grenades during a meeting in the building of the Keretsk village council. Until the explosions, people present at the meeting weren't aware of what's happening. At least 2 people were killed and 26.