Dec 16- Seva Samokhvalov: internal Russian power-plays

Thread as published on December 1, 2022

Who is Vsevolod Samokhvalov…

Vsevolod Samokhvalov is an Adjunct Professor at the College of Europe/University of Liege, and the Free University of Brussels. Vsevolod has worked as policy analyst and journalist in the Black Sea region, Balkans, London and Brussels.

He is also the author of “Russian-European Relations in the Balkans and Black Sea Region”, Springer International Publishing, 2018.

Vsevolod Samokhvalov: internal Russian power-plays

As sinister as they are Russian security services have always checked public opinion by running closed sociological surveys, using quite sophisticated techniques to extract the real mood of people.

A recent public opinion survey shows a tectonic shift in the Russian society - 55% of Russians are against this war. Furthermore, only 25% believe that Russia should continue this war. The rest 20% are undecided which means they would rather see all this "bullsh-t wrapped up".

Source: Meduza

This result is confirmed by the survey of another last respectable semi-independent pollster Levada Centre, which says 57% against the war.

Three take-aways from this change. First, at least one Russian security services (Federal Protective Service - FPS) starts a game of its own. Not only does it report to the President that the situation is bad, but it also leaks it to the media. And Russian intel officers know all well that leaking such an info will only empower anti-war attitudes.

Second, leaking video with an alleged criminal authority Sasha Kurara who spoke against quickly rising Putin associate Evgeniy Prigozhyn suggests that Russian special services are trying to undermine his quest for power. This video has not been purged from Russian internet (you can still find it through the Russian search engine Yandex). This means at least Federal Protective Service and Federal Security Service have decided not to remove it.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

#Russia: Russian bandit Sasha "Kurara" recorded a video from his luxurious prison quarters. He claims: #Prigozhin and him were in prison together & Prigozhin would give him oral sex for fun. Prigozhin had his 'place' & knew his 'place' (in the prison hierarchy), & he is aggrieved

A quick reminder: Federal Protective Service is small, but very important actor. It is responsible for the personal security of President and security of all governing bodies of Russia. Effectively they control the center of Moscow, the Kremlin building and even the President's brass-band.

Third, this significant change comes after a noticeable change in the mood on Russian TV channels. The anchors do not openly challenge the idea of war, but they keep highlighting that extreme difficulty of the situation on the front. At the same time, they silence those speakers who voice radical views - escalation of war, nuclear strike and nationalization of Western assets in Russia. This approach does not challenge Putin's story and there is still a lot of heroic rhetoric.

And yet this script increases the feeling of hopelessness and disempowers those who still support the war. Kremlin ideologues and Russian security service have enough sinister intellectuals who could crack this 'Aesopian language'. But it seems to continue which means that several government TV-channels were allowed or even encouraged to do it.

Business Ukraine mag @Biz_Ukraine_Mag

Video has emerged of mobilised Russians allegedly mutinying and forcing their way off a military base in protest at poor conditions. With morale plummeting among Putin’s troops, the Russian army faces a difficult winter

This means that at least some Kremlin ideologues and some security service officers decided to launch an anti-war campaign. Not because they are pacifists, but because they fear that if the war continues, the military empire of Prigozhyn and Chechen leader Kadyrov would gain even more power.

Apparently, they fear this scenario so much that they are prepared to go beyond bureaucratic politics and raise stakes by stirring social discontent and mobilizing all possible allies (including liberals, criminals, etc). In this context, Putin becomes an observer and the future of Russia will be shaped by the clash of these two forces.

Prune60 @Prune602

@JuliaDavisNews “Vladimir Vladimirovich knows it all” Riiiiiiiiight

Until recently it looked like Prigozhyn's military company and Chechen battalions of Kadyrov had more soldiers to claim the power. But if security services manage to ride on the wave of discontent and lead de-escalation they might have enough legitimacy and soldiers to grab power in the capital and the networks to control the rest of the country.

If they prevail this wouldn't mean that Russia becomes democratic overnight. But de-escalation and a period of internal work would follow.

Let's see how it goes…