Dec 17: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Maria Avdeeva: Huge thank you to all who helped launch Ukraine's EU accession talks from Kramatorsk. Russia's aggression fuels our determination, while Europe stands beside us.
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks against Dnipropetrovsk Oblast injure 3. Russian artillery and drone attacks against Dnipropetrovsk Oblast's Nikopol district on Dec. 16 injured three men, Governor Serhii Lysak reported.
The Russian invaders again attacked Ukraine on the night of 15-16 December, using 31 Shahed-136/131 UAVs, reports the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Assets and personnel of the Ukrainian Air Force destroyed 30 attack drones.
Russian attack on Kherson injures 3. Russian forces attacked Kherson overnight, injuring three people, Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported on Dec. 16. A total of 107 towns and villages and 30 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons.
Russian drones over Kyiv downed, no casualties reported. Russia’s Dec. 16 attack, the sixth aerial assault on Kyiv since the beginning of December, was successfully thwarted with no casualties or major damage, according to Kyiv City Military Administration head Serhiy Popko.
FT: Western nations are now actively exploring ways to seize Russian central bank assets to fund Ukraine. US officials said that 'there is a route to seizing the assets consistent with international law'.
This week, Ukraine was hit by a 48-hour cyber attack that the UK says was likely “one of the highest-impact disruptive cyber attacks on Ukrainian networks since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion”.
National Resistance Centre of Ukraine situation report from Mariupol under Russian occupation:
The occupying power of the temporarily captured city of Mariupol continues to destroy the city.
Two years after the beginning of the occupation, a significant number of surviving houses in the city are still not connected to the heating system. Therefore, people there are doomed to the cold, and their homes are gradually being destroyed.
There is also a disaster in the city with the removal of garbage, because the occupiers looted communal equipment, and the “gifts” from the bosses are not enough, because the purpose of these “transfers of equipment” has a propaganda purpose.
In the temporarily occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia region, the Russians continue to loot industrial facilities. Scrap is removed from factories and sent to the Russian Federation through the port in Berdyansk. The robbery was carried out by “contractors” under the supervision of Russian soldiers.
Zelensky: Ukraine downs 104 of 112 Shahed drones launched by Russia this week.
"Every destroyed (Shahed) means saved lives and saved infrastructure. I thank all the soldiers of our mobile fire groups, pilots, engineers of the Air Force, and air defense troops. Well done!" President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
Combat Situation Update
Russia says it has thwarted a series of Ukrainian drone attacks, with Russian anti-aircraft units destroying 32 Ukrainian drones over the Crimean peninsula and six in the Kursk region, which borders Ukraine.
Up-date Dec 16: General Staff: over the past 24 hours, missile troops hit 4 areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment and 2 ammunition depots of the enemy. Me: in yesterday’s E-Stories, the infrastruture in two areas were struck by the Ukrainian forces—this has increased to 4, as per reporting of the General Staff.
Military: Russia committing more reserves in attempt to capture Kupiansk. Russia is ramping up efforts to capture Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, moving reserves of assault battalions to the area to compensate for heavy losses, Volodymyr Fito, the head of the Army's public relations service, said on air on Dec. 16.
CDS Report: In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG)
"Khortytsia" on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 15 Russian attacks in the area of Synkivka.
On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled one enemy attack east of Terny.
On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 11 enemy attacks near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on the achieved positions.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian defense forces continue to hold back the enemy, which persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 23 enemy attacks east of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, and 22 more attacks south of Severne, Pervomaiske and Nevelske.
CDS Report—What to look for in the coming days:
The Russian command is planning to cross the Oskil River and seize a bridgehead on the right bank near Kamyanka under the cover of the TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" heavy flamethrower systems, and is actively taking preparatory measures.
On the Lyman sector, the Russian command is evidently not rushing to advance towards the "Khortytsia" OSG bridgehead located on the left bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River.
The Russian command maintains the continuity of the offensive on the Bakhmut sector by sequentially activating its advanced units in different sectors of the offensive within one operational direction.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhnyi is planning a new counteroffensive. Ukraine is likely to gather resources for new operations in 2024, Welt writes.
Behind the Lines
In Crimea, Russian military personnel who participated in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine are being trained to teach at educational institutions for children. Currently, they are undergoing education at the Crimea Republican Institute of Postgraduate Pedagogical Education controlled by the Russian Federation, Krym Realii reports.
The city of Vulhedar in eastern Ukraine.
Zaporizhizhia Region under Russian occupation: In total, the region needs 1,300 specialists, because most of the locals left the region and refused to cooperate with an enemy. At the same time, most of the enemy’s civilian hospitals were converted to meet the needs of their army.
Therefore, the occupiers are forced to bring people from the Russian Federation to treat the wounded occupiers. Russian doctors are also involved in the “medical examinations” that the occupiers need to legalize the deportation of the population.
Noel Reports: A warehouse hosting lubricants and fuel is reportedly on fire in Budonivskyi District in occupied Donetsk. The smoke can be seen from far away.
Ukraine’s interior ministry has placed the head of Russia’s Orthodox church on a wanted list. Ukraine’s security services accuse him of abetting the conflict. Reuters reports that the measure is purely symbolic as Patriarch Kirill is in Russia and under no threat of arrest. However, it is the latest step in Ukraine’s campaign to uproot the influence of priests it alleges maintain close links to Russia and subvert Ukrainian society.
Imports to Russia from third countries has been going on since the start of Russia’s illegal full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian installed mayor of annexed Donetsk Alexey Kulemzin reported that the area is under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ukrainian media suggest that the fire occurred at an oil depot or military base.
Partisans at work: The Mariupol Resistance blew up a car belonging to a Russian military officer from one of the Caucasus units, advisor to the city mayor Andryushchenko said. The officer is reportedly taken to the hospital.
Hungary has threatened to veto Bulgaria’s entry into Europe’s passport-free Schengen Zone unless it ends its transit tax on Russian gas. The foreign ministry said the country would lift its veto as soon as the transit tax on Hungary’s main gas import route is repealed. Hungary receives 4.5 billion cubic metres of gas per year from Russia under a deal signed in 2021, mainly via Bulgaria and Serbia.
Reuters: Austria demanded that Raiffeisen Bank be removed from the Ukrainian list of “war sponsors” in exchange for approval of a new package of EU sanctions.
Up-date Austrian reserve: Next week, the EU will formally adopt the 12th package of sanctions against Russia after Austria withdrew its reserve. Austria demanded that Raiffeisen Bank was withdrawn from a list of 'war sponsors' by Ukraine. It is unknown whether their demand is met.
Meanwhile in Russia
While Rosstat and Putin give fake figures, the Romir Institute has calculated that inflation since the beginning of the war in Russia has reached 47.9% in October 2023 on everyday goods (food, drinks, detergents, medicines , clothing).
Putin has nominated himself to run for president. The show featured a bunch of FSB officers standing up with little red cards demanding Putin be nominated. He will be running as an ‘independent’.
"Ukraine has lost the opportunity to conclude a profitable peace agreement. Now any possible deal will reflect its capitulation," said Dmytro Polyanskyi, the first deputy permanent representative of the Russian Federation to the UN. (Me: negotiations anyone?)
Russians are storming the border with Finland.
A Belarusian in Rome: “Russian butchers of the former "Wagner" became the fighters of Lukashenka's "Tornado" riot/suppression forces. It means that they were also given citizenship in Belarus—- only citizens can serve in internal affairs bodies.”
Kyiv Independent investigation on the Danieli Group
After Russia seized Crimea and unleashed the war in the Donbas in 2014, the Italian Danieli Group grew to become a major player in the Russian steel industry, the engine of Putin’s war machine. Danieli, which sells and services equipment for steel plants, has since worked with at least 14 Russian metal companies, including six that contribute to the Russian military industry.
Danieli didn’t leave the Russian market when Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and has supplied equipment to at least one Russian steel plant since then.
The alleged clients of Danieli that produce steel for Russian weapons could include Severstal and Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works (MMK), the owners of which are under international sanctions.
Allied Support
EU to find 'operational solution' for Ukraine funding by next Council meeting. As Hungary opposed the EU's multi-annual financial framework that included 50 billion euros ($55 billion) for Ukraine, the European Commission will ensure an "operational solution" to the issue by the next meeting, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said during a press briefing on Dec. 15
Ambassador Brink urges US lawmakers to approve Ukraine aid package. U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink on Dec. 15 urged Congress to reach a deal on additional support for Ukraine “as soon as possible,” describing the situation as “urgent.”
Vadym Prystaiko, the former Ukrainian ambassador to the UK, has claimed that the UK is one of the countries that, in the event of a "catastrophic development of the war" in Ukraine, could send its armed forces there, as reported by Prystaiko in an interview with Radio Svoboda, as reported by European Pravda.
Prystaiko commented on one of the arguments that Ukraine uses to justify the need for help - "if you don't help Ukraine now, sooner or later, your children will fight with Russia".
"What President Zelenskyy is saying now is that if we run out of forces, soldiers, or weapons that you don't supply us with, you will have to make a decision to help our Armed Forces. And some countries are approaching this decision. The UK is one of them. It is first on this list," he believes.
The former ambassador explained that Western states would "never admit" preparations for a scenario involving, as he put it, "the use of their expeditionary forces on Ukrainian territory".
To the question under what conditions this scenario could occur, Prystaiko answered, without elaborating, "The catastrophic development of the war... Continuation of the occupation".
Me: the partition of Ukraine (because that is what Russian occupation and annexation of Ukrainian territory is) constitutes a direct security risk to all NATO member states. So while the Musk’s of this world are playing on social media, providing support for Russia and China and Iran, our institutions are addressing the needs of our democracies.
German defense minister: Europe needs to guarantee security without relying on US. Pistorious noted that Europe may have to replace U.S. aid to Ukraine if Washington fails to approve new funding.
Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria to sign treaty on Black Sea mine clearance in January. Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria plan to sign an agreement on joint clearance of mines in the Black Sea in January, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler said on Dec. 16, Reuters reported.
Emma Briant, Hacking is far more than a security issue. It chills free speech—Index on Censorship
The British and US governments have just jointly sanctioned two Russian intelligence operatives for their attempts to derail the democratic process through a series of coordinated cyber attacks. The US State Department is also offering a reward of up to $10M for information on the Russian hackers responsible for the coordinated cyber espionage attack, which is international and spans several years. Targets even included the former MI6 director Richard Dearlove, and more recently scientists at several nuclear facilities in the United States. But what distinguishes this recent wave of Russian cyberattacks is that they are not just targeting governments or politicians.
Civil society became a significant target for Russia’s state backed hackers, including “universities, journalists, public sector, non-government organisations and other civil society organisations”. Paul Mason, a former BBC and Channel 4 journalist, has put out a statement confirming he was targeted by these hackers. At the time his private accounts were hacked, I had been helping Mason work on an article challenging Russian propaganda narratives that were spreading during the Bucha massacre in Ukraine. Overnight we were turned into the latest circulating ‘deep state’ conspiracy theory.
The Mason hack
As we worked, I received an urgent message from Mason saying his emails with me may have been compromised. He published a statement saying he had been “targeted by a Russian hack-and-leak operation”. I then received an email from a Grayzone writer who has also written for Russian state media (Sputnik/RT), saying, “Been going over various emails and DMs of yours. Very interesting…” The journalist said he thought my employer and “the academics you’re trying to target are likely to be very unhappy indeed when they hear about all this. I think we’d better talk.”
The writer said the email was not a threat. But it was clear to me I was facing an impending reputational attack to harm my career and relationships. This email didn’t resemble the right to reply that journalists usually send posing questions prior to reporting, and it made no mention of an article or outlet.
Within hours the first article hit Grayzone, a website with a pro-Kremlin stance on world events. A series of stories followed linking me to activities of which I had no knowledge and suggested that Mason and I could be part of a nefarious plot to silence critics of NATO in Russia’s war on Ukraine. [continue]
Where’s your homework and why are you late…
