Dec 2: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
President Zelensky visited the Kharkiv metro where schools are located. In total, the premises for children's education are located at five stations of the Kharkiv metro. More than two thousand children study there.
Stories we’re following…
Russian forces kill 2000 Ukrainian civilians in 2023. More than 2,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed and 11,000 injured as a result of Russian shelling in 2023, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko reported on Nov. 30.
Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 1, injure at least 15. Ukraine's Air Force said on Nov. 30 that Russia had launched 20 Shahed-type drones and eight S-300 missiles toward Donetsk Oblast, and that 14 of the drones were shot down by air defenses.
Russian attacks on Donetsk, Kherson oblasts kill 3, injure 12. Russian forces struck multiple settlements in Kherson and Donetsk oblasts on Nov. 30, killing three people and wounding another 12, the regional authorities reported.
Zelensky travels to Zaporizhzhia, holds meeting on fortifications. During his work trip to Zaporizhzhia, President Volodymyr Zelensky held a meeting on building fortifications "on main defensive lines" and in regions bordering Russia and Belarus, the President's Office reported on Nov. 30.
Combat Situation Update
In Zaporizhzha region, the Russian forces have tried and failed 11 times to restore lost positions near Robotyne. Also, Ukrainian soldiers repelled 4 attacks by the Russian forces west of Verbove.
Russian troops have placed the Russian flag on the western side of Mar'inka. The village where no house is left standing has been on the very frontline since 2014. Ukrainian forces now only control a small part in the north. Map updated.
Russia’s navy on Friday destroyed an uncrewed Ukrainian navy vessel heading towards Crimea, the defence ministry said:
“At about 08:00 Moscow time, an unmanned Ukrainian navy boat was discovered in the western Black Sea heading towards the Crimean Peninsula.”
President Zelensky addressed the challenges of winter, the counteroffensive and war in the Middle East in a new interview.
“We have a new phase of war, and that is a fact,” Zelenskiy told The Associated Press in an interview in Kharkiv yesterday, published this morning. “Winter as a whole is a new phase of war,” he said.
Asked about the counteroffensive, he said:
“Look, we are not backing down, I am satisfied. We are fighting with the second (best) army in the world, I am satisfied,” he said, referring to the Russian military.
But he also said: “We are losing people, I’m not satisfied. We didn’t get all the weapons we wanted, I can’t be satisfied, but I also can’t complain too much.”
Speaking about last summer’s counteroffensive, the Ukrainian leader said:
We wanted faster results. From that perspective, unfortunately, we did not achieve the desired results. And this is a fact.
He also underscored the importance of boosting domestic arms production, and Kyiv’s push for cheap loans and licenses to manufacture weapons.
And he addressed the impact of the war between Israel and Hamas.
“We already can see the consequences of the international community shifting (attention) because of the tragedy in the Middle East,” he said. “Only the blind don’t recognise this.”
“We must not allow people to forget about the war here,” he said.
The British defence ministry said today that “the Russian defence industry is moving to close the capability gap with Ukraine in the development of one-way attack uncrewed surface vehicles”.
Border Guard: Russian sabotage groups' activity rising in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian sabotage groups are attempting to cross Ukraine's border into Kharkiv Oblast increasingly more often compared to their usual target, Sumy Oblast, Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko said on Dec. 1.
ISW: Kremlin concerned about how shifting Russian views on Ukraine war might impact 2024 presidential election. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin will likely center his presidential campaign on Russia’s alleged domestic stability and increased criticism of the West instead of focusing on the war, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest report.
Official: Ukraine develops new electromagnetic warfare systems. New Ukrainian-made electromagnetic warfare systems to protect soldiers from radar-guided weapons and FPV drones were successfully tested and recommended for use, Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Havryliuk told ArmyInform on Dec. 1.
Behind the Lines
The situation on the Polish-Ukrainian border remained tense, with Ukrainian truckers stuck on the border saying they plan to launch a hunger strike if their demands are not met. Polish and Ukrainian officials agreed on measures designed to help ease the situation at border crossings blocked by Polish truckers, but did not address the protesting Polish truckers’ main demands.
SBU blows up another train in Russia's far east. This was allegedly the second stage of an SBU operation to disable the Baikal-Amur railway line. This key railway route, crucial for Russian military logistics, runs north of the Trans-Siberian railway and is part of a network of tracks connecting Russia with China.
Border Guard: Russian sabotage groups' activity rising in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian sabotage groups are attempting to cross Ukraine's border into Kharkiv Oblast increasingly more often compared to their usual target, Sumy Oblast, State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko said on Dec. 1.
A fire broke out in one of Moscow's biggest markets.
Ombudsman confirms first case of Russian citizen changing identity of illegally adopted Ukrainian child. Ukraine's Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets confirmed media reports revealing that a Russian lawmaker's family had illegally adopted a Ukrainian child abducted from a children's home in Kherson and changed her identity.
Ukraine’s human rights commissioner accused Russia of refusing to agree new exchanges of prisoners of war. Said about Russian prisoners, “No one from the Russian side wants to take them back.”
Slovak trucking union UNAS chief Stanislav Skala said his team were ready to start blocking the Vysne Nemecke/Uzhhorod crossing with Ukraine, the country’s sole border point for trucks, Reuters reported.
Border Guard: 600 trucks in line at Slovakia-Ukraine border ahead of blockade. As of the morning of Dec. 1, around 600 trucks remain in line at the Vyšné Nemecké crossing on Slovakia's border with Ukraine, State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko said on national television.
Noel Reports: Russian media released footage of the fire after a freight train in Buryatia, carrying 50 tanks with fuel, exploded, reportedly carried out by the SBU. The Russians confirm a criminal case is opened and sabotage is expected. The footage below has been removed
"As a result of the explosion, tank 16 at the head of the train burned out, and a hole was found in two tanks (20 and 22 at the head of the train) in the drainage area. After the explosion, it was possible to remove 14 tanks, but further transportation of the remaining tanks is not yet possible - the explosion seriously damaged the rails, and the leaked fuel flooded them," they write.
Orban suggests not to put the issue of Ukraine's accession to the EU on the agenda of the summit, which will be held on December 14-15, because it is allegedly "clear in advance that there will be no agreement among the countries." Orban reiterated on Friday that several issues would need to be resolved before membership talks could start with Ukraine, saying it was impossible to assess what consequences Ukraine’s membership would have on the bloc.
“If we don’t know (what consequences it would have) then we should not start talks … So I will represent the view that the EU should first sign a strategic partnership agreement with Ukraine,” Orbán said in an interview on state radio.
“This (agreement) could last for up to five to 10 years, let’s bring them closer, as the gap is too wide now,” he said. “Let’s give time for us to work together, and when we see that we can work together, then let’s bring up the issue of membership.”
President Zelensky: The International Maritime Organization has just elected a new IMO Council for 2024-2025. Russia was not elected. I welcome this just decision. In the last decade, no country has done more to undermine freedom of navigation than Russia. I am grateful to IMO member states for taking this crucial step.
Meanwhile in Russia
Putin’s annual call-in question show, “Direct Line with Vladimir Putin,”, and end-of-year address will be held on December 14. According to Peskov, Russians can send in their questions starting December 1. This year, staff from the All-Russian People’s Front will handle this task. Russian journalists, as well as employees of foreign publications who are “accredited and continue their work in Moscow,” will take part in the event, Peskov added. Last year’s edition was cancelled.
Russian FM Lavrov at the OSCE meeting: Blinken and Borrell are "cowards" who "fled" Skopje without meeting him at OSCE foreign ministers' meeting because "they are afraid of any honest conversation with facts in hand".
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said today that Russia is working on the assumption that sanctions against it by the United States and its allies will last for many years, Reuters reported. He said:
We have no doubt that these sanctions will last for many years. Even without statements from the respected (U.S.) representative, we already knew this. We assume this when formulating our line.
The world is much more diverse than the United States, so the American-centric world is ending, and a period of diversity is beginning, including in international economic relations.
Russian media: Two incidents involving civilian aircraft reported in one day.
A flight from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to Moscow was forced to land prematurely in St. Petersburg, and another flight from Moscow to the far east city of Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk suffered a drop in cabin pressure and had to make an emergency landing.
The incidents highlighted the increasingly apparent impact of Western sanctions on Russia's airlines, as it was not the first time that incidents involving equipment malfunction on civilian airplanes were reported.
Surkov, the creator of the “Novorosya” project for Putin, writes: There will be no agreement between Ukraine and Russia. Not even a Minsk3. Russia has not been a mediator for a long time, who is willing to patiently dismantle disputes with its neighbors. Russia is now an eager participant, in a great struggle, that will get what is coming to her. Next year will be the year of complete defeat and disorganization of the Ukrainian puppet "state"!
Speaking in Skopje today, Lavrov said Moscow saw no signs that Kyiv was ready to move towards a political resolution and that there was no reason for Russia to change the goals of its “special military operation”, Reuters reported.
Russia says dual Russian-Italian national arrested for train bombing on behalf of Ukraine. Russian investigators said on Friday a dual Russian-Italian national had been detained for planting bombs on railway tracks as part of a sabotage campaign orchestrated by Ukrainian military intelligence.
“During questioning, the detainee confessed and said that in February 2023 he was recruited by an employee of the main intelligence directorate of the ministry of defence of Ukraine,” the investigative committee said.
The committee said the detained man admitted undergoing “sabotage training in Latvia with the direct participation of the Latvian special services.”
Allied Support
Reuters: As part of sanctions against Russia, Switzerland has frozen financial assets of Russians worth $8.8 billion. The increase in frozen assets is due to an increase of 300 people and 100 companies and organisations who have been added to the sanctions list
FT: "The U.S. government aims to halve Russia's oil and gas revenues by the end of this decade," US Deputy Secretary of State for Energy Resources Jeffrey Payette said. Me: oh. wow. moving so fast you can’t even see them.
EU countries have agreed on a €50 billion financial support package for Ukraine for the next 4 years. "The central piece is the support for Ukraine. This is not contested by anybody, even in magnitude," EU Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn said
Norway announces $23 million for Ukraine's food security. Norway will donate 250 million Norwegian kroner (around $23 million) to Ukraine's food security under the five-year support program known as Nansen, the Norwegian government announced on Nov. 30.
Reuters: The US have postponed the supply of a large batch of long-range bombs (GLSDB) to Ukraine until 2024. Delivery by manufacturer Boeing to the US will take place in late December - followed by several months of testing before onward shipment to Ukraine.
Department of State Designates Russia’s Military Officials Due to Involvement in Gross Violations of Human Rights against Civilians in Ukraine: On November 20, 2023, the Department of State designated two Russian military officials due to their involvement in gross violations of human rights in Ukraine. As a result of the designation, the military officials and their families are ineligible for entry into the US.
President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, believes that the strategy of Europe's defense industry should take into account the military needs of Ukraine. "Our strategy can be completed only if it takes into account the needs of Ukraine and its industrial potential."
Keep in mind: Proposals for 12th Package of Sanctions Against Russia: On November 15, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, together with the European Commission, submitted to the Council a proposal for the 12th package of sanctions. The package proposes to sanction over 120 additional individuals and entities for their role in undermining sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and to adopt new import and export bans, as well as actions to tighten the oil price cap and to counter circumvention of EU sanctions.
EU Set to Introduce New Sanctions on Diamonds and Tighten Oil Price Cap, and to tighten other measures. In contrast to the US, EU has not yet banned Russian diamonds, in large part due to Belgium’s bid to protect the Antwerp diamond trade. Belgium has now worked with the European Commission and the G7 to move forward with a ban that also tackles sanctions circumvention. The ban would apply from January 2024, but there would be a gradual phase-in of an indirect import ban on Russian-processed diamonds in non-EU countries, as there is more technical work to do to set up the traceability mechanism at the G7 level.
EU Wants to Sanction Russians Who Profited from Carlsberg, Adidas Seizures: It has been reported on November 23, that Russians who seized parts of European companies after Russia's invasion of Ukraine would be sanctioned under unofficial proposals put forward by the European Commission. The EU would be able to target people or bodies “benefiting from the compulsory transfer of ownership or control over entities established in Russia, which were previously owned or controlled by Union persons,” according to the text not yet published.
Romana Mengaziol sentenced to 5 years in prison for having recruited Roberto Fiore from Cuneo, Federico Comito from Rho and Luigi Sandoni from Modena to fight in the pro-Russian militias in Donbass from 2014 to 2018.
The Economist: Is Putin Winning?
Is Mr Putin winning? The Russian president has managed to stabilise his country using repression, oil money and the help of a cynical and opportunistic elite. But this is an unstable equilibrium. His regime depends on war and militarism, but also on keeping ordinary Russians passive and atomised. In time, they may increasingly resent his mass mobilisations and diversion of social spending to the army. But Mr Putin’s biggest asset is Europe’s complacency, fatalism and lack of strategic vision in Europe. He can only win if he is allowed to win. His victory would be a tragedy for Ukraine, the West and ultimately for Russia itself.
That is our cover in Europe. Elsewhere we look at how conventional wisdom on capitalism could be overturned. A belief that the system is rigged to benefit the wealthy and punish workers has shaped how millions of people view the world. In rich countries, however, wage gaps are shrinking. Markets are desperate for manual workers and the earnings boost from a degree has fallen. Evidence that artificial intelligence closes productivity gaps is another reason to expect that inequality will keep falling—and that the blue-collar bonanza is here to stay.
EUvsDisinfo: Dec 1—Russia’s nuclear doctrine
Russia has to change its nuclear doctrine. By threatening the West with nuclear arms, Russia will prevent a Third World War. Its historic mission is to save the world once again, as it did during the Napoleonic Wars and the Second World War, when it was fighting against Hitler and the whole of Europe.
This is a recurring disinformation narrative from pro-Kremlin outlets claiming that Nazi ideology pervades European countries and Ukraine. This claim was made in the context of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
In reality, the principal members of the Allied powers fighting the Axis powers during the Second World War were the United Kingdom, the Soviet Union, the United States, and China (the “Big Four”), as well as France while it was unoccupied. The European Allies also included every other signatory to the Declaration by United Nations (January 1, 1942): Belgium, Czechoslovakia, Greece, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, and Yugoslavia. The Axis powers were a coalition headed by Germany, Italy, and Japan.
EU member states have long been taking measures to reinforce anti-Nazism legislation (see here and here). Also, Germany banned Artgemeinschaft in September 2023, a far-right sect which was spreading Nazi ideology to children and young people.
The myth of Nazi-ruled Ukraine appeared during the Euromaidan popular protests in late 2013 - early 2014, falsely presented by pro-Kremlin disinformation as a coup. The Kremlin has since been using this myth to discredit Ukraine’s shift towards Euro-Atlantic policy.
Read similar disinformation cases claiming that Europe is tempted to support Neo-Nazi movements, Anglo-Saxons turn Europe into the 4th Reich, and Russia is fighting the Nazi International.
Programming note…
