Dec 20: E-Stories
Day665 Boryspil UNReport CombatSit BehindLines Mariupol voting InRussia Voronezh Allies EU US CZ GER ZePresser FIN RedSea A&P Gyunduz ISW UKDef Kenyon Greene Vogel VonCramon Rosenberg Popova Harding
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Security experts appeal to US Congress to approve Ukraine aid bill. Over 40 members of the Alphen Group, an international association of security experts, appealed to U.S. Congress to approve the funding request that includes aid for Ukraine in a letter published on the organization's website on Dec. 18.
"Ukraine's fight is not only in defense of its own sovereignty and territory but also on behalf of the West, its values and way of life, which Russia seeks to replace with an international system more welcoming for dictatorships," the experts wrote in the letter address to both Republican and Democratic lawmakers.
Airliner takes off from Kyiv to Europe for technical transfer. A Ukrainian airliner took off from the Boryspil airport near Kyiv on the morning of Dec. 19 for a technical transfer to Europe, making it the fourth civilian flight from Boryspil since the start of the full-scale invasion.
UN records 142 cases of Russia's summary executions of Ukrainian civilians. Russia's suspected violations in Ukraine include at least 142 summary executions of Ukrainian civilians by Russian troops since the start of the full-scale invasion, UN human rights chief Volker Turk said on Dec. 19. The numbers that the UN regularly provides on casualties of Russia's war against Ukraine include only cases that could be safely verified, and actual figures are most likely higher.
Combat Situation Update
"The Russian Federation will not be able to seize Avdiivka even before the presidential elections of the Russian Federation, which are scheduled for March next year," Vitalii Barabash, Head of the Avdiivka City Military administration said.
Zelensky: Kharkiv Oblast fortifications strongest, other regions should follow suit. As Ukraine continues fortifying its front lines, the most powerful defenses have been constructed in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Dec. 19, responding to a question from the Kyiv Independent journalist during an ongoing press conference in Kyiv.
CDS Report Up-date: general comments
On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy command seeks to restore positions west and southwest of the city at any cost.
Powerful strikes by Russian FPV drones hinder the supply of Ukrainian units on the Avdiivka direction.
The main operational goal of the enemy south and southwest of Donetsk is the complete elimination of the Vuhledar foothold of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
On the Tokmak direction, the enemy command is making efforts to maximize the narrowing of the area where the "Tavriya" OSG is wedged into the first position of enemy’s main defense line, exerting pressure on the flanks of this area.
Russian special services have created fake Telegram channels duplicating the corresponding channels of Ukrainian brigades and battalions to spread false information and discredit Ukrainian military personnel.
Commander: Ukrainian military scales down some operations over foreign aid shortages. Ukrainian forces face shortages of artillery shells and have to scale down some military operations due to a decrease in foreign aid, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said in a comment for Reuters on Dec. 18.
"The volumes that we have today are not sufficient for us today, given our needs. So, we're redistributing it," said Tarnavskyi, who commands the Tavria group of forces.
Russia probably fired a ballistic missile – described as a “super weapon” – at Ukraine last Thursday, in the first such launch in several months, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said.
Zelensky says the military has asked for an additional 450-500,000 people to be mobilised into the army but that a final decision had not been taken.
The Ukrainian leader told the news conference in Kyiv that top military and government officials were due to discuss “this very sensitive issue of mobilisation” and that parliament would then consider it. Zelensky said that conducting a mobilisation at such a scale would require additional financing.
He added he is “confident” the U.S. will not let Ukraine down in terms of support.
A reporter from the BBC asked Zelensky if Ukraine wasn’t losing the war. He responded with a categorical "No" after a pause.
"We were in the most difficult situation, we were almost completely occupied - at least the central regions, the logistics of our state, roads, railways, food delivery, we were in a complete blockade, we got out. Now we have a different situation," Zelenskyi emphasized.
"No one knows whether the war will end in 2024 , and neither do the partners. All predictions are just opinions. The Russian Federation did not achieve a single result on the battlefield in 2023, therefore, there is nothing to say about defeat".
"The USA will not betray us. What we agreed on will be fulfilled. I will summarize assistance that is already available for next year:
Belgium 1.7 billion, Denmark 4.2 billion, Korea 2.3 billion, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands - hundreds of millions, Norway 7.5 billion, France 2 billion, Germany 8 billion, Sweden 0.5 billion, and Japan 2 billion.
This is a powerful base, we expect 50 billion from the EU, and 61 billion from the USA," the President said.
The UN human rights chief, Volker Turk, said there had been an “extensive failure” by Russia to protect civilians in Ukraine and that there were indications that Russian forces had committed war crimes there. Speaking at the Human Rights Council in Geneva, he emphasized that the monitoring of his office indicated "gross violations of international law and war crimes, primarily by the forces of the Russian Federation".
Behind the Lines
Russian occupiers in Mariupol destroyed 180 thousand Ukrainian books, which they deemed "extremist," and four libraries. They also imported Russian textbooks, as reported by the city council of Mariupol in Ukraine. St. Petersburg sent nine tons of textbooks to schools in Mariupol.
Umerov unveils new procurement agency as part of anti-corruption efforts. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov introduced in an opening presentation on Dec. 18 the state enterprise State Logistics Operator (DOT), a new procurement agency for Ukraine's Armed Forces. The agency is responsible for all non-military purchases, such as food, fuel, or clothes, some of which became the center of two corruption scandals under the Defense Ministry's previous leadership.
Finland closes its border with Russia again, claims Moscow is orchestrating a 'hybrid operation'.
Finland says a recent increase in asylum seekers arriving at its eastern border without valid visas is an orchestrated hybrid influencing operation by Russia, a claim that has been echoed by other nearby nations but denied by the Kremlin.
More than 200 asylum seekers entered Finland from Russia after the Nordic Country reopened two border crossings on Thursday, the Finnish Border Guard said.
"This is a sign that the Russian authorities are continuing their hybrid operation against Finland. This is something that Finland will not tolerate," Minister of Interior Mari Rantanen said in a statement on Thursday.
Experts say hybrid threat operations encompass a range of hostile activity, typically perpetrated by authoritarian states and regimes to create instability in democracies.
Statement from Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Ensuring Freedom of Navigation in the Red
The recent escalation in reckless Houthi attacks originating from Yemen threatens the free flow of commerce, endangers innocent mariners, and violates international law. The Red Sea is a critical waterway that has been essential to freedom of navigation and a major commercial corridor that facilitates international trade. Countries that seek to uphold the foundational principle of freedom of navigation must come together to tackle the challenge posed by this non-state actor launching ballistic missiles and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) at merchant vessels from many nations lawfully transiting international waters.
Therefore, today I am announcing the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian, an important new multinational security initiative under the umbrella of the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of its Task Force 153, which focuses on security in the Red Sea.
Operation Prosperity Guardian is bringing together multiple countries to include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering regional security and prosperity.
The announcement comes after more than 100 drone and ballistic missile attacks from the Iran-backed Houthi militia, which is headquartered in the mountainous, inland capital city of Sana’a, but whose troops control much of Yemen’s coastline.
A Polish court has convicted 14 citizens of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine for preparing acts of sabotage on behalf of Moscow as part of a spy ring, AFP reports. The defendants were charged last month with acts of espionage such as preparing to derail trains carrying aid to neighbouring Ukraine.
United States-Japan-Republic of Korea Trilateral Ministerial Joint Press Statement
Today, the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea announce that they have fully activated a real-time DPRK missile warning data sharing mechanism and jointly established a multi-year trilateral exercise plan.
Following recent tests that verified the full operational capability of the DPRK missile warning data sharing mechanism, the mechanism is now active. The three countries established this mechanism to improve their ability to ensure the safety of their peoples by trilaterally detecting and assessing missiles launched by the DPRK in real-time.
The Hill: Trump said that if re-elected he will ask Europe to reinburse US those $200 billion spent for arming Ukraine and will impose huge fees to NATO allies.
Former President Trump said in a new campaign video that if reelected, he would ask Europe to pay for the U.S. to rebuild its weapons stockpiles, which Washington has used to help supply the war in Ukraine.
“Less than three years ago, I’d fully rebuilt the United States military and steered America into such a strong global position,” Trump said in the video released on Tuesday.
“Twenty-nine months later, the arsenals are empty, the stockpiles are bare, the Treasury is drained, the ranks are being hollowed out, our country has been totally humiliated, and we have a corrupt, compromised president, crooked Joe Biden, who is dragging us into World War III,” he added.
Trump accused America’s European allies of contributing a “tiny fraction” of the assistance to Ukraine and slammed the Biden administration for not already making such a request for reimbursement, suggesting that President Biden is “too weak and too disrespected to even ask.”
Serbian citizens took to the main square on December 18 night in Belgrade to protest the irregularities of the election that saw Vucic’s party win 50% of the vote. Please read Viola von Cramon’s comments below. She was an election monitor there.
Morocco has become another hub for the purchase of chips and other high-tech products needed by both civilian companies and military enterprises, as well as intelligence services.
By November 2022, trade officials in Morocco were already claiming that their “direct support” had transformed the country into a transhipment hub for electronics shipments. Goods from Taiwan, China and other production centers arrived at Tangier-Med and were loaded onto ships bound for Russia. “Given the long-term nature of cooperation with the Moroccan partner, the supply volume could be about $10 million per year,” they wrote about their work with Prosoft.
Meanwhile in Russia
AFP has more quotes on what Putin said at a defence ministry meeting earlier.
“Maybe this is the most important: the general consolidation of all the forces of society,” the Russian president said.
He thanked “everyone who helps our fighters at the front, transfers money, sends cars and drones and body armour” and praised a “patriotic spirit of solidarity”.
Russia is upgrading its nuclear arsenal and keeping its strategic forces at the highest level of readiness as the west wages a “hybrid war” against it, Putin told a conference of senior defence officials. Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, said Russia had laid 7,000 sq km of minefields along the 2,000km frontline.
Putin: "There would have been a massacre in Crimea if Russia had not annexed the peninsula after the coup d'état in Kyiv in 2014", said Putin, once again justifying his illegal annexation.
Food queues in Voronezh.
Hyundai to sell its sole Russian car plant for symbolic price. This adds the company to the list of major car producers leaving Russia following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and a wave of sanctions, also including Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Toyota, and others.
Steve Rosenberg for the BBC: Back to the future? One Russian newspaper this morning writes: "The onward march to the USSR has indeed become quite noticeable recently."
The EU will allow frozen assets to be used to compensate companies from which Russia took away their business. Until now, the EU has only frozen the assets of individuals and legal entities included in the sanctions lists. There have been discussions about their confiscation and legal options have been studied, but European legislation does not allow alienation of property. Now the EU introduces an exception: if the Russian division of a European company was forcibly transferred into the ownership or control of the Russian Federation and it is on the sanctions list, it will be possible to take its assets and shares for, “among other things, the payment of agreed upon adequate compensation” to the parent company.
Moldovan PM: Putin's move to simplify citizenship for Moldovans an attempt to gather 'cannon fodder'. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's move to simplify the process for Moldovans to obtain Russian citizenship is an attempt to gather "cannon fodder" for Russia's war in Ukraine, Moldova's Prime Minister said in a interview on Moldova's TV8 on Dec. 18.
Allied Support
The EU Council has adopted a 12th package of sanctions against Russia, the European Commission said. This package focuses on imposing additional import and export bans on Russia, combating sanctions circumvention and closing loopholes, it said.
Sweden and Denmark agreed on further support for Ukraine in the field of combat vehicles. Thus, both countries agreed to transfer CV90 infantry fighting vehicles to Kyiv. Denmark will pay for them while Sweden will support with the procurement.
Rheinmetall was commissioned to supply a total of tens of thousands of projectiles of various types to the Ukrainian armed forces. The contract value amounts to a three-digit million euro amount. Delivery is scheduled to take place during 2025.
Telegraph: UK to sign 10-year pact on naval security commitments for Ukraine. The U.K. plans to sign a 10-year Memorandum of Understanding to "keep Kyiv in the fight" against Russia in the Black Sea, the Telegraph reported on Dec. 18, citing unnamed British military sources.
Lithuania, Sweden and Canada created a Group of Common Interests for Ukraine which will support the recovery of the Ukrainian transport industry, Deputy Minister of Community Development, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine Serhiy Derkach reported.
Italy’s cabinet has passed a law decree that allows it to continue supplying Ukraine with “means, materials and equipment” until the end of 2024 to support its war effort against Russia, a defence ministry statement has said. Supplies will include weapons, power generators and “everything needed to support military operations in defence of unarmed civilians,” the statement said. It added that the government would ask parliament to confirm the decision. The decision would also be put to COPASIR, Italy’s intelligence oversight committee.
The Board of Governors of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has approved an increase of the bank's paid-up capital by €4 billion to €34 billion. It is used to provide siginificant long and short term investments in Ukraine's economy.
Denmark has said it had agreed to enhance its military cooperation with the US, AFP reports.
“We are now strengthening our bilateral defence cooperation, and we do not want to hide the fact that the agreement with the US also marks a breakthrough in Danish defence policy, as it involves US soldiers and US material on Danish soil,” Denmark’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, told a press conference.
A court in Helsinki arrested one of the former leaders of the Russian neo-Nazi paramilitary group "Rusich", Yan Petrovskyi (Voislav Torden), on suspicion of committing war crimes in Ukraine in 2014-2015.
Context to the post: a GRU agent has sought political asylum in the Netherlands a few days ago, and he’s not the only one. When the agents defect, they also provide information to the Western intelligence services on double agents, agents of influence, legals and illegals operating in the West. There is also a lot of other kinds of information that they can give the nation they defect to.
Viola von Cramon on the elections in Serbia
I was member of the EU Parliament Election Observation Delegation in Serbia where together with my colleagues have observed the snap national parliamentary elections.
Serbian elections were held under the uneven playing field conditions and conducted with frequent irregularities on and before election day such as misuse of administrative resources, vote buying and violation of the secrecy of the vote.
We witnessed cases of organised bringing of voters from Republika Srpska and voters’ intimidation. We absolutely expected higher democratic standards from an EU candidate country, which negotiates EU membership. An international oversight and full investigation are needed.
The EU Parliament stands ready to mediate between the ruling party and the opposition in Belgrade to ensure the peaceful and democratic dialogue to reduce the tensions.
A few days ago, a story came out in the BBC about memes created with fake quotes supporting Russia by famous public figures. This is along the same lines.
Maria Popova: Dismantling Russia support
Bulgaria is appropriately considered the most pro-Russian European country. Polls show 40% think the Russia-Ukraine war isn't Russia's fault and this is usually chalked up to traditional pro-Russian sentiment due to Russia's role in Bulgarian independence from the Ottoman empire and shared Orthodoxy.
But the last few days suggest that this pro-Russian sentiment might be more superficial and a knee-jerk expression of a stereotype than a deeply held/felt position. The dismantlement of the Soviet Army monument slowly taking place in the middle of Sofia illustrates this point.
On the other hand, pro-Russian politicians are vocally dramatic about the dismantlement, almost as much as the Russian embassy. The president, the Socialists, and the far right Revival have called it "barbarian" and anthropomorphize the sculptures, decrying their "beheading" and "dismemberment".
However, instead of organizing protests, the pro-Russian parties are trying to disrupt the dismantlement process by going to court. Why?
Because it looks like they don't have the capacity to trigger a major protest. An attempt a few days ago produced a small crowd only even though the removal of a monument from a park is a straightforward focal point and Bulgarians are enthusiastic protestors, having maintained months-long anti-government protests both in 2020-21 and in 2013-2014. It just seems they're not as angry as some politicians appear to be.
To emphasize-- the pro-Russian segment is a minority; a sizable 30-40%, but a minority. Such a minority could easily sustain a major protest if it cares deeply about an issue. My hypothesis in this thread is that even this minority isn't committed to a pro-Russian position strongly enough.
PS. For what it is worth, the dismantlement process has been a drawn out affair. The opposition had ample opportunity to stage a protest and if a major/sustained protest had taken place, it's likely the government would've backed off and left the monument in place.
Luke Harding, ‘We will stand until the end’: Ukrainian defenders of Avdiivka hold on – for now
For two months, the Russian army has been trying to seize the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. First, it launched a massive frontal assault. Dozens of pieces of equipment were destroyed. Then it dispatched armoured columns in different directions. Now, in a third wave, small groups of infantry are being sent to penetrate Ukrainian positions.
“There are dozens of bodies. They try to advance. We kill them. They send more,” said Ivan Smaga, the deputy commander of Ukraine’s 25th storm battalion, which is defending Avdiivka. “To begin with it was groups of 10 men. Now it’s one or two or three without support. Their commander uses them like live meat.”
Smaga said the Russians ordered into battle used ingenious methods to survive. Some crawled over the icy ground. Others dug holes “like mice”. A few pretended to be dead, lying for hours next to the corpses of their fallen comrades. “We watch them. They lie under warm bodies. Eventually they get up move.” Ukrainian drones and artillery picked them off, he said.
The fighting in Adviika and southern and eastern Ukraine continued as EU leaders met in Brussels for talks on Ukrainian membership of the bloc and billions in economic and military support for the country, amid fears in Kyiv over the strength of western backing. Meanwhile in Moscow, Vladimir Putin vowed to press ahead. “There will be peace when we achieve our goals,” he said on Thursday. “They haven’t changed. Denazification of Ukraine, the demilitarisation of Ukraine.”
Avdiivka has been on the frontline for almost a decade. In spring 2014, Russia staged a military takeover of Donetsk, the regional capital, 3 miles to the south-west and a 20-minute drive away. Thereafter, Ukrainian troops faced off against their Russian counterparts in an industrial zone, looking out on to a no man’s land of trees and yellow feather grass. Shells flew in both directions.
In the first weeks of Putin’s full-scale invasion last year, the Russian army swept across much of southern and eastern Ukraine. It was unable to conquer Avdiivka, however, where Ukraine’s armed forces had built extensive fortifications and underground command posts, once visited by western dignitaries. The town is an anomalous bulge, from Moscow’s point of view, surrounded by Russian-controlled territory on three sides.
For now its Ukrainian defenders are holding on. The Russians might be “idiots” but they have “more of everything”, Smaga said. That includes 40,000 troops massed on the Avdiivka salient, tanks, Soviet-era MT-LB armoured fighting vehicles and 152mm howitzers. Since late summer, less ammunition had been reaching his unit, Smaga said. “We have enough to defend from attack. But if they keep coming, we are going to need an awful lot more.”
What happens in Avdiivka has huge symbolic value. For the Kremlin, its capture would boost Putin’s campaign before elections in March, when he is standing for president for a fifth time. Russia’s recent attacks all across the eastern front, including around the town of Bakhmut, appear to be driven by politics and narrative-shaping as much as by military logic. The message: Russia is winning and Ukraine is losing.
For Kyiv, defeat in Avdiivka would add to the sense of swirling gloom, after a failed counteroffensive earlier this year. This week, Volodymyr Zelensky scrambled to Washington to plead for more security assistance in the face of opposition from House and Senate Republicans. The western coalition that has been backing Kyiv, supplying weapons and taking in refugees, appears to be slowly unravelling. [continue]
