Dec 21: E-Stories
Day666 Kherson 20DaysMariupol Ze CombatSit Bakhmut BehindLines POL GER InRussia China Allies USsanctions RUaliens A&P Zabrinsky ISW UKDef CDS Podolyak Mamedov InformNapalm Kovacevic Khromeychuk Michta
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Update: Russian attacks against Kherson, Sumy oblasts injure 6. Russian attacks against the Sumy and Kherson oblasts on Dec. 19 injured six residents, including three children, local officials reported.
Kyivstar reports outages in parts of Ukraine. Kyivstar is Ukraine's leading phone services provider, with over 24 million mobile customers and more than 1 million home internet customers as of September this year.
Zelensky presser Dec 18: Zelensky said that if elected US president, Donald Trump will “definitely have a different policy” than the current administration. “If the policies of the next president are different, whoever he or she might be, are colder, or more frugal, I think those signals will have a very big impact on the course of the war in Ukraine. Because that’s how the whole world works. If one strong part falls out, the mechanism starts to fall apart,” he said.
Ukraine's need for foreign financing in 2024 will amount to $37.3 billion, as verified by experts of the International Monetary Fund. This is almost $4 billion less than initially estimated thanks to measures to maximize state budget revenues.
A humanitarian aid storage point from the regional organisation of the Ukrainian Red Cross was destroyed during a Russian attack on Kherson on the night of 19-20 December. No one was injured, but all the humanitarian aid burned out, reports the Ukrainian Red Cross Society.
Leaders of the U.S. Senate said a deal to provide additional aid to Ukraine and bolster U.S. border security was not likely to come together soon, with one senior Democrat saying that action would probably be postponed until January, Reuters reports. Republican and Democratic negotiators have been working to pass a funding package before leaving town for a year-end holiday break. Senator Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Democrat, said that was not likely.
“I hope that they’re going to prepare the text and sit down and roll up their sleeves and finish up as soon as we get back in January,” he told reporters.
Combat Situation Update
General Staff: Russia using low-quality, defective North Korean shells. In particular, the General Staff said that this appeared to be happening with Russian troops in the Dnipro Group under the command of Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, operating in the south of Ukraine.
CNN: Russia uses tear gas against Ukrainian troops on southern front. Russia drops caustic and flammable gas on Ukrainian lines to sow panic ahead of conventional shelling, CNN wrote on Dec. 19 in its report on trench warfare on the southern front.
CDS Report: The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, as well as part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by the end of 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture portions of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
On the Kupyansk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG forces repelled Russian assaults in the area of Synkivka, east of Petropavlivka, near Makiyivka, in the area east of Terny, and near Spirne.
Russian forces concentrated the majority of their strikes in Makiyivka, attempting to break through the Ukrainian defense near Synkivka and Serebryansk Forest to the south of Kreminna. However, Ukrainian forces counterattack in these areas.
On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces have advanced in the direction of Bohdanivka and Ivanivske, seizing new positions on heights to the west of Klishchiivka.
On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have advanced to a depth of 800 meters north and northwest of Opytne and 400-500 meters deep west of Vodyane, along the southern outskirts of Novomykhailivka
CDS Report General conclusion:
Ukrainian forces are facing a shortage of 122mm and 152mm projectiles across the entire front line, and the deficit of ammunition for Ukrainian artillery is expected to persist. The adversary is also experiencing similar problems, but they surpass the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the intensity of firepower by 5-7 times.
The shortage of artillery and delays in Western security assistance create uncertainty in Ukrainian operational plans and force the Ukrainian Defense Forces to conserve resources, leading to tough decisions regarding the prioritization of specific front-line sectors over areas with low combat intensity.
Adverse weather conditions, including dense fog and icy conditions, hinder active combat operations around Avdiivka.
ISW: This is a map that shows the location of Russian combat units at new military bases in Ukraine should Ukraine fall.
Zelensky presser Dec 19: "The war strategy will not change: the borders of 1991 are our territories. Tactics may change after the results of the counteroffensive are taken into account . We will never support such a thing that part of Ukraine is in NATO, and part of Ukraine controlled by Russia is not in NATO," Zelensky said.
The Deep-Space Communication Centre of the Russian Aerospace Forces was supposedly struck in occupied Crimea on the morning of 20 December, reports ASTRA, an independent Russian Telegram channel. According to the channel's sources, the attack on the centre, which is located in the village of Vitino, Saky district, was carried out at 05:00. Preliminary information indicates that the attack was carried out with Storm Shadow missiles.
What’s left of Bakhmut.
UK Defence Intelligence has said that fighters from the so-called Storm Z, penal units of the Russian military, are likely to return to combat missions with unhealed wounds, or even after amputations, reports UK Defence Intelligence on 18 December. "This follows credible reports that members of Shtorm-Z, Donetsk militias, and Wagner Group have frequently received minimal or no treatment."
Mihaylo Podolyak: That's weird.
The Russian Federation is losing entire military units. Elite forces – paratroopers, marines, special forces, contract. 87% of the "regular army", into which an incredible amount of money was pumped before the full-scale invasion and which was literally demonized in many countries, has been destroyed.
Russia is panically withdrawing the remnants of its "Black Sea Fleet" to the bays of Novorossiysk and is already silent about total control in the waters of the Black Sea. Russia is hysterically searching for shells/ammunition anywhere and already lives under an obligation to North Korea.
Russia conducts endless recruiting in its perpetual prison camps, sending more and more convicts to the war. Russia is not advancing anywhere, piling up corpses and burned wrecks of its armored vehicles...
Yet we continue to read fabulous stories in the media that the Ukrainian offensive is not as successful as it could be (based on a classic two-hour Hollywood blockbuster) and that we should probably start negotiating with... a murderer who is in shock himself. Weird.
Weird again.
What's the point? To demotivate their own politicians and their voters? To let Russia hope that this time too, there's a chance to escape justice? To avoid telling about the "glaring successes" (sarcasm) of the Russians and thereby prolong the debate about the need to ramp up military production and aid to Ukraine?
Maybe we should return to standards and start describing what is happening on the battlefield fairly? And tell, for example, where the entire order-bearing Russian guard divisions disappeared and what happened to key field generals Teplinsky, Zavadsky and a dozen others? Because the objective picture of the war is somewhat different, and despite all the difficulties, Ukraine continues to effectively confront the militaristic Russian Federation for almost two years...
The production of FPV drones in Ukraine has already reached more than 50,000 units per month: volumes will increase significantly next year," Oleksandr Kamyshin, Minister of Strategic Industry of Ukraine said.
Behind the Lines
Four checkpoints on the border with Poland remain blocked for Ukrainian lorries as of the morning of 20 December, and approximately 5,220 vehicles are queuing to enter Ukraine, reports Andrii Demchenko, spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine.
"Polish border guards said there are 3,600 lorries queuing toward Ukraine in 4 blocked areas as of this morning: Sheghyni – 1,000, Rava-Ruska – 600, Krakowiec – 500, Yahodyn (traffic was blocked on 18 December after 15:00 Kyiv time) – 1,500 freight vehicles."
The US introduced new sanctions for Russia's violation of the price ceiling during oil trade, targeting shipowners and vessels involved in transporting Russian crude oil at a price above the cap.
Germany's Federal Prosecutor has raised the issue of confiscating hundreds of millions of euros of frozen Russian assets, which could establish a precedent in the country, with the total value of the frozen assets amounting to €720 million, reports Spiegel.
According to Spiegel, Federal Prosecutor Peter Frank has filed a motion with the Higher Regional Court of Frankfurt am Main to confiscate €720 million of frozen Russian assets into the state budget.
If the process goes ahead, it will establish a precedent for Germany. Until now, sanctioned Russian assets have only been frozen, depriving their Russian owners of the ability to manage them, but allowing them to retain ownership.
Meanwhile in Russia
Xi Jinping met the Russian prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin, in Beijing on Wednesday. Xi praised the growth of bilateral trade between the two countries, which reached a record $200bn in the first 11 months of 2023, according to China’s official state readout. In November, bilateral trade surpassed $21bn, the highest since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022. According to the official readout, Xi said: “Developing China-Russia relations is a strategic choice made by both sides based on the fundamental interests of the two peoples.” On Tuesday, Mishustin met his Chinese counterpart Li Qiang and said that ties between Moscow and Beijing had reached an “all-time high”.
Putin decorated servicemen on December 19, and on that occasion he told them Russia will "go all the way, defending the interests of our country". I assume these kinds of video clips will be plentiful as the ‘election’ in Russia creeps forward. This is the schtick: Putin commander-in-chief. It’s very Tsarish.
The wives of Russian mobilized soldiers who have staged demonstrations demanding the return of their husbands from Ukraine say federal agents are now interrogating and threatening those men on the frontlines, sometimes seizing soldiers’ mobile phones to study their correspondence and instructing them to tell their wives to “shut up.”
InformNapalm Investigation on recruited Nepalese soldiers for Russia
InformNapalm published two interviews with Nepalese citizens who fought on the side of Russia against Ukraine and were taken prisoner. Each has their own story and experience. According to an internal document of the Russian army, which was distributed by Ukrainian hackers, after watching the first short videos with the captured Nepali, 28 Nepalese citizens cancelled their contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence and refused to fight.
We hope that even more Nepalis will see the new videos and make the right decision not to go to war. Because Russian recruiters lure them with high salaries and sweet promises of safety. In reality, they become human shields for the Russian army. In just a few days, according to one of the captured Nepalese, 25 of his compatriots were killed in the war.
On the left, captured Nepalese citizen Tagar Sidharthu: "I studied in Russia, I was deceived and sent to war in Ukraine".
On the right, captured Nepalese citizen Pratik Pun: "I was lucky to be captured. I know that recently from Nepal, somewhere around 25 people have died in the war"
For the first time, the Russian authorities have enforced a wartime law and seized the assets of shareholders based in “unfriendly countries.” On Tuesday, President Putin ordered the sale of shares in joint ventures with Gazprom owned by the German company Wintershall DEA and the Austrian company OMV. The shares will be sold to Russian owners. The government will later determine what compensation will be paid to the two foreign companies, but these funds will be frozen in type “C” accounts. When withdrawing from the Russian market, Wintershall estimated the losses from its assets’ write-off (including shares in the Nord Stream pipelines) to be €5.3 billion ($5.8 billion). On December 18, 2023, the E.U. imposed sanctions against any Russian companies that participate in the confiscation of European companies’ property in Russia.
Hyundai to sell its sole Russian car plant for symbolic price. This adds the company to the list of major car producers leaving Russia following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and a wave of sanctions, also including Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Toyota, and others.
The Kremlin said on Wednesday that there is no current basis for talks between Russia and Ukraine as none of the prerequisites are in place, Reuters reports. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Ukraine withdrew from the negotiation process in 2022 "at Britain's insistence" and "forbade" negotiations with Russia.
Me—fun fact: up to the Cold War, Russia considered Great Britain to be its greatest enemy. They love blaming stuff on the Brits. Looks like the Russians are getting nostalgic. This kind of narrative also tries to implant the idea that Ukraine was ready to cave in at the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. It’s another attempt to deny Ukrainian agency.
A Russian-speaking German family with six children (four of whom are still minors) received temporary asylum in Russia after citing fears that child protective services might seize their kids if they return to Germany. Russia’s Internal Affairs Ministry hasn’t disclosed why the parents feared protective services in Germany, but the story resembles reports from October 2023 about another large Russian-speaking family living in Germany that decided to relocate to Orenburg.
Me: something to keep an eye on for two reasons: 1. this could have been a family of illegals posted in Germany and now have to leave for whatever reason. Illegals are Russian agents living abroad without the protection of the Russian state.; 2. Russians could be using this pretext to amplify the narrative that Russian minorities abroad are not safe, thus justifying Russian actions to address their so-called safety concerns. This was the narrative used to invade Ukraine. Germany doesn’t have the same numbers of Russians as Ukraine, of course, but this same pretext could be used in other states.
The EU top court on Wednesday upheld sanctions against Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich that had been placed upon him after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reports. Abramovich had launched a legal challenge against this. Abramovich, who also holds Israeli citizenship and is a former owner of Chelsea football club, became one of the world's most powerful businessmen after the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union. Forbes estimates his net worth at $9.2bn.
Allied Support
White House: Russia, China, North Korea seek to strengthen ties. Russia, China, and, to some extent, North Korea seek to strengthen mutual ties as they grow dissatisfied with the rules-based world order, U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told the press on Dec. 19.
WaPo: Japan is expected to formally approve changes that will allow it to export several dozen Patriot missiles to the United States, intended to be sent to Ukraine afterwards.
EU Commissioner: $440 million energy support fund to help Ukraine in winter. The Ukraine Energy Support Fund has already accumulated 400 million euros ($438 million) to help Ukraine get through the winter, Ukrinform reported on Dec. 19, citing European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson.
Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean says his country needs modernized air-defense systems to guard against Russia, which he says have escalated since the invasion of Ukraine. In a television interview on Tuesday, he confirmed that Moldova’s new national security strategy identifies Moscow as the country’s greatest threat. “Neutrality will not protect Moldova,” he argued.
Poland has charged 16 foreign nationals with spying for Russia, for allegedly preparing acts of sabotage and gathering information on military equipment deliveries to Ukraine, reports RFE/RL. The charges against the spy ring, which was dismantled in March, were announced by the office of the intelligence service coordinator, Mariusz Kaminski. The office said all of the accused had confessed to committing the acts, which also included engaging in propaganda with the goal of turning Polish sentiment against neighboring Ukraine. Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro said on X, formerly known as Twitter, that each of the accused faces up to 10 years in prison.
Official Readout from U.S. Department of State:
The United States is imposing sanctions today on a network of 10 entities and four individuals based in Iran, Malaysia, Hong Kong (PRC), and Indonesia, led by Iran-based Hossein Hatefi Ardakani, for facilitating Iran’s procurement of sensitive goods, including U.S.-origin electronic components, for one-way attack UAVs produced by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force Self Sufficiency Jihad Organization.
Concurrent with OFAC’s action and following a multi-year investigation by Homeland Security Investigations (HSI), the Department of Justice announced the unsealing of indictments charging Hossein Hatefi Ardakani and Gary Lam with crimes related to an illicit procurement network and scheme to unlawfully export U.S.-origin, dual-use, and sensitive technology to Iran. HSI’s global investigation identified a network of Iranian intermediary companies, front companies, and logistics businesses used to procure and facilitate the transfer of sensitive U.S.- and foreign-origin technology to Iran for its weapons programs. On October 18, 2023, OFAC designated Gary Lam, whose primary name is Lin Jinghe, for his support to an Iran-based procurement agent working on behalf of the IRGC-owned Saberin Kish Company.
Slovakian citizens who are protesting against Fico’s government on Dec 19.
Olesya Khromeychuk, This Is Not a Crime Novel
A historian’s view on Russia’s war in Ukraine and the countless voices of Ukrainians who are fighting to make Europe ‘whole and safe’.
Like a young, pretty woman who gets murdered at the beginning of a crime novel, Ukraine became an object of interest because of the act of aggression directed against it. It has gained worldwide visibility because Russia has tried to make it invisible. Being seen, however, is not the same as being understood. To truly understand Ukraine, we need to listen to Ukrainians talk about themselves in their own words and on their own terms. We must trust them with their knowledge of themselves and challenge our own imperialist worldview. After all, it is the habit of listening to a ‘great power’ that has led us to focus on the perpetrator when we should be focusing on the nations it is attacking. It has led us to confuse Russia with the country we wish it were rather than the one it really is and pushed us to focus our energies on ensuring Russia’s survival rather than preparing for its demise.
Every time I’m invited to speak about Ukraine, I notice an unmistakable pattern of discussion: sooner or later (usually sooner), someone asks me to talk about Russia.
Why is the Russian army performing so poorly (and not why the Ukrainian army is doing so well against all odds)?
What needs to happen for Russian society to take to the streets and protest (rather than what has made Ukrainians so intolerant of authoritarianism and determined to fight against it)?
What will happen to the Russian language after even Russian-speaking Ukrainians no longer want to speak it (and not how it is possible that the Ukrainian language managed to survive and even thrive despite centuries of Russification)?
And, finally, will the post-Putin leadership — whatever it looks like — save Russia (rather than what we can all do to ensure that Ukraine is saved from this and future genocidal attacks)? [continue]
Chris_O Wiki: Reptoid Space Civilisation killing Russian men
Me: Yes, you read the title correctly. No, you’re not reading the Daily Mail. The crux of the piece is that Russian women NEED to make more babies, and if they’re not, it’s the reptoid space civilisation…or rather the West. Got it.
A Russian State Duma deputy, an FSB general and others have co-written a 'scientific paper' about the genocide of Russians by "beast people", feminists who worship the demoness Lilith, a lack of men due to a US plot, reptilian infiltrators, and oral sex.
The St Petersburg-based journal "Legal Science: History and Modernity” has published a paper which argues that Russia is under siege from 'non-humans' (defined as Westerners, Asian migrants and supporters of democracy and liberalism).
The authors divide the world's population into two groups: humans, created by God, and non-humans, created by the Lord God: "In the Bible there are two main cosmic entities, God and the Lord God. ..."
"There are two main kinds of human beings living on planet Earth: 'people of the Earth', created in the image and likeness of God; and people created 'from the dust of the earth' with the help of cosmic gene technology. ...
"Numerous experts in the field of orthodoxy speak about the presence of different kinds of people on planet Earth. There are people created in the image and likeness of God, there are beastmen." These are "genetically modified creatures, biological artificial intelligence.”
The values of the beastmen include "war, murder, terror, revolutions, brothels, pedophilia, cannibalism, drug addiction, destruction of the life support system of the spaceship “Planet Earth”, etc."
Russians, meanwhile, are the original inhabitants of the Earth, having originally lived "in the country of Hyperborea, and the Prophet Muhammad was also Russian." Jews are also indigeneous, including "the German Jew Herschel Levy Mordecai, who had the pseudonym Karl Marx."
The Russians gathered all the other ethnic groups in their region "under their wing" but after the collapse of the USSR the other groups carried out a "genocide of Russians." Now Russia faces "foreign migration, along with positive trends ... [and] a racial genetic war."
The authors trace this back to St Bernard of Clairvaux, whom they say "formulated the ideological justification for the genocidal genetic war, selective destruction of Slavs" way back in 1147.
"In modern Russia, the Russian family is the object of a hybrid war of the collective West, which is doing everything to ensure that the Russian woman in terms of preserving the family and childbearing becomes on the side of the enemies of the fatherland.
"From the hypostasis of the Mother of God, the Queen of Heaven, from the keeper of the hearth, a faithful wife and virtuous mother, a Russian woman in the 90s of the 20th century turned into a follower of the demoness Lilith, the wife of the original Adam.
"A woman most often gives birth to children for her husband and for the state. ... A woman’s writhing around a pole are elements of Satanism." Single mothers "ruin" their daughters by teaching them to enter "marital age" as "ready-made whores."
Women are being rendered impure by racial mingling and prostitution: "The trace of every man who has been in a woman’s body remains with her forever on a biological (sperm) or wave level (if there is a condom)."
Russia's falling fertility rate and demographic crisis are blamed on a shortage of men due to a plot by the US and the “collective West”, known as the "Dulles plan" (actually an invention of the novelist Anatoly Ivanov) to promote the moral decay of the Russian people.
The authors advocate banning same-sex relationships, anal sex and oral sex, as they consider that during oral sex, sperm are embedded in the brain and spinal cord. "The female uterus is the dwelling place of God," they conclude.
"Representatives of the reptoid space civilization" are manipulating the people of Earth through secret government structures such as a "privy council". They aim to destroy the Russians and morally destroy women, instilling lust in men to make them into allies.
The paper was co-written by Mikhail Salnikov, the chief researcher at the Law Institute in St. Petersburg; State Duma deputy Igor Ananskikh; Voronezh doctor of legal sciences Nikolai Litvinov; FSB reserve lieutenant general and ataman Ivan Mironov; and Ilya Kharin, general director of a clinical sanatorium.
The paper is a reminder that there is a section of the Russian establishment which sees the world in explicitly racial terms that would not have been out of place in 1930s Germany.
For some reason, since it was publicised by online media, the paper is no longer available from the journal's website, but it can still be downloaded from the Internet Archive.
Chels Michta, The China-Russia Axis Moves Into High Gear
Many have warned of a developing China-Russia axis following the countries’ announcement of a “no-limits” partnership last year, just as Vladimir Putin was poised to launch an all-out war on Ukraine.
Some, including Putin, have denied any intention of creating a military alliance, even as the two countries announce closer military ties.
In July, Russian and Chinese naval forces conducted a joint military exercise in the Sea of Japan. While China’s state-run Global Times declared that the Northern/Interaction-2023 exercise marked the first time that both Russia’s navy and air force had taken part in a joint drill led by the Chinese navy, PLAN, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russia and China held five or more military exercises in the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea last year.
There’s something still more concerning. Russia possesses some high-end military technologies. If it shared those with China (and there are now signs that it is doing so), this would change the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific faster than most analysts have anticipated, especially if China gets access to naval technologies for its rapidly growing maritime forces.
This expanding Sino-Russian military cooperation should give Washington pause. In key areas of defense technology, Moscow has much to offer Beijing, and as Putin grows more dependent on Xi for political and economic support, those technologies, especially hypersonics and attack submarine propulsion systems, can help the People’s Liberation Army and the People’s Liberation Army Navy leapfrog into key areas where they are currently deficient.
The same goes for operational and tactical lessons the two can draw from each other, laying the foundation for a degree of interoperability that didn’t exist before. It is fair to assume that under their “no-limits partnership,” naval drills of the sort witnessed earlier this year are just the beginning of a deepening military-to-military cooperation between the two countries.
There has also been a significant expansion of Russian-Chinese economic ties, not only when it comes to Chinese purchases of Russian energy, but also in terms of an increase in China’s presence in the Russian market, replacing key Western companies that have left due to sanctions.
The expansion of cross-border commerce between the two countries is particularly significant as both the Russian Far East bordering on China, as well as North Korea, are fast becoming critical zones of regional trade. Chinese state media recently reported the planned expansion of grain imports from Russia, announcing the construction of a grain corridor linking Russia to Heilongjiang, China’s northeastern breadbasket.
There are good reasons for Russia and China to accelerate cooperation. Economic and demographic trends do not favor either dictatorship. The war in Ukraine has awakened much of the West to the existential threat the Sino-Russian alliance poses to the free world. [continue]