Dec 22 Buonasera Mag
Day 301: Donetsk Kherson UAChildren Kuznetsov Rogozin Shoigu IAEA arctic G7 USsanctions Duda Iran Macron LNG Romania Kaili-A&P-Vadym MacKay UKDef RoomRater Aseyev Duxbury Leukavets Cooper
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
An attack in Donetsk oblast: The attack, reportedly from a multiple-launch rocket system, killed one person in the city of Chasiv Yar, injured two more and damaged residential buildings, according to Tymoshenko.
Russian attacks across 8 Ukrainian oblasts kill 1 person, injure 15 over past day. Russian attacks on Donetsk, Kherson, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk oblasts killed one person and wounded 15 over the past day.
Reznikov: Mass burial site found in liberated village in Kherson Oblast. Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on Dec. 21 that the bodies of seven civilians, including a teenage girl, allegedly killed by Russian forces had been found in a mass burial site in the recently liberated village of Pravdyne in the southern Kherson Oblast.
Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian children forcibly deported to Russia, says Kyiv’s ombudsman The Ukrainian ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets, said the number of children who had been “forcibly deported” to Russia could be in the hundreds of thousands. Authorities had established the identity of more than 13,000 children deported to Russia, the Ukrainian parliament’s commissioner for human rights said on television. Authorities had established the identity of more than 13,000 children deported to Russia, the Ukrainian parliament’s commissioner for human rights said on television. He said:
We do not know the exact number [of Ukrainian children taken away] but, according to our data, we can assume that hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian children were forcibly deported.
A fire broke out on the only Russian aircraft carrier "Admiral Kuznetsov". Since 2018 Kuznitsov has been under repair in Murmansk which should continue until 2024. This is not the first fire incident, in 2019, a fire broke out during which 2 people died and 14 were injured.
Ex-CEO of Russian state space corporation Roscosmos Rogozin reportedly injured in Donetsk. Russian state space corporation Roscosmos ex-CEO Dmitry Rogozin was wounded in gunfire in Russian-occupied Donetsk on Dec. 21, his aide reportedly told Russian state-owned media RIA Novosti. He was staying with a group of military advisers when their hotel came under fire.
Putin threatens to strengthen nuclear triad, pledges 'unlimited' funds for Russian army. In a speech to his defense chiefs, Putin emphasized Russia's commitment to maintaining and developing its nuclear triad, calling it the "main guarantee of preserving our sovereignty and territorial integrity."
Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, has visited army units fighting in Ukraine, as reported by RIA. Shoigu visited Russian units deployed to the “area of the special military operation”. It did not specify where the visit took place.
ISW: Putin demonstrates that Russia is not interested in reducing its war efforts, despite growing toll on society. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu presided over a Russian Ministry of Defense Collegium in Moscow on Dec. 21. They made several statements on the strategic direction of the Russian military, during which Putin reiterated that Russia "will ensure the safety of all Russian territories, including illegally-annexed territories in Ukraine."
The head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, met officials from Russia’s military and state atomic energy company, Rosatom, to discuss setting up a safe zone around Ukraine’s Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
Russia has continued expanding its military bases in the Arctic region despite significant losses in its war on Ukraine, according to a new series of satellite images obtained by CNN.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also told CNN in an exclusive interview on Friday there is now “a significant Russian military build-up in the high north,” with recent tensions causing the alliance to “double its presence” in response.
A Kremlin-linked hacking group known for focusing on Ukraine has stepped up its spying efforts against Ukraine’s NATO allies in recent months — in part by trying to hack a big oil firm in a NATO country in August, according to US cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks.
The G7 nations “are prepared to do more as needed on budget and economic support” for Ukraine in the year ahead, according to a joint statement from the group’s finance ministers Thursday. For 2023, the group has mobilized “up to $32 billion US dollars of budget and economic support for Ukraine and continue to make further progress,” said the statement published by the German government.
The Department of State is designating 10 Russian naval entities. This action imposes severe costs on Russia’s defense establishment in response to Putin’s unprovoked war of choice in Ukraine. Among those sanctioned are:
RIGEL is a manufacturer of nickel-metal hydride and silver-zinc batteries and has been a supplier to the Russian navy for more than 15 years.
ELEKTROPRIBOR develops and manufactures high-precision navigation, gyroscopy, gravimetry, optical electronic systems of submarines, and marine communication systems.
AVRORA has been described as leading Russian enterprise in the fields of development, production, and supply of automated control systems for surface ships and submarines for Russian military vessels
Defense Minister Reznikov said he held a phone call with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin following President Zelensky's visit to Washington, DC, and the announcement that the US will provide the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine. Reznikov tweeted that “PATRIOTic soldiers will master these systems quickly,” capitalizing part of the word in reference to the defense system.
President Zelensky met with Polish President Andrzej Duda while returning to Ukraine from the US. Zelensky posted a photo of him on Telegram meeting with Duda and said, “We summed up the year, which brought historic challenges due to a full-scale war. Also we discussed strategic plans for the future, bilateral relations and interactions at the international level in 2023,” he added.
CNN: US investigates how its technology ended up in Iranian drones used by Russia to attack Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has established a task force to investigate how Western technology, including U.S. microelectronics, ended up in Iranian-made kamikaze drones that Russia has been using to attack Ukraine, CNN reported citing multiple officials.
Some EU states formally express concerns to France over Macron Russia comments - diplomats. Baltic states and other European nations upset at comments made by French President Emmanuel Macron regarding security guarantees for Russia formally lodged disapproval and explained their position to France on Monday, diplomats said.
On Wednesday, Germany’s first LNG terminal started supplying natural gas to the country’s industry and 41 million households, a day earlier than planned. The terminal — a special ship — is one of three floating storage regasification units ordered and connected to the grid in record speed to compensate for Russia’s decision to halt gas shipments via its pipelines to Germany.
Romania’s Schengen accession would strengthen Europe, argues Marcel Ciolacu, the president of the Chamber of Deputies of the Romanian parliament and president of the country’s Social Democratic Party. Taking aim at Austria, which objected to Romania (and Bulgaria) joining Schengen over fears it could accelerate illegal migration.
A Belgian judge will today determine whether MEP Eva Kaili will have to remain in prison or can be released awaiting trial on corruption charges.
On President Zelensky- How Ukrainian views his visit- Politico
Zelenskyy’s visit to the U.S. offered a sense of hope to Zalevskyi and other Ukrainians living amid rolling electrical and internet blackouts and constant air raid sirens. It meant potentially more assistance to help bolster the country’s war efforts and buoy the faltering economy through what is expected to be a grueling winter.
“Politics in America depends on Americans, and if this visit helps Americans better understand our situation in Ukraine, then I think it could help Biden be able to give us more,” Zalevskyi said. “Everyone here knows about the visit, we’re paying attention. It’s an important moment that’s all about hope — hope for protection.”
Sergii Kostezh expressed hope that Zelenskyy’s meetings in D.C. would “provide something systematic, meaning a stronger weapons support system. We have to know what we will get going into March, April, May, June, July, so that we can plan new operations on the frontline.” He added that “our ministry of defense has to be able to plan not for a few days, but for the next month.”
But others in the war-torn country said the outcome they wanted from the Zelenskyy trip was something larger than weapons acquisitions. MARIIA VOVK, 24, of Kharkiv, said she wanted Americans to see the war in Ukraine as an emblem for the future of democratic institutions.
“I hope people keep in mind during this visit that Ukraine is a shield for the whole west. Do not forget that we’re fighting for freedom not just for us, but for everyone. The politicians should recognize that,” she said.
Charlie Duxbury, Out of the shadows: Europe exposes its Russian spies- Politico
Two military helicopters shattered the calm of suburban Stockholm on a late November morning, swooping over a private home in the sleepy locale of Kil in a high-profile raid on a Swedish couple accused of spying for Russia.
Alla Leukavets, Putin’s Visit to Belarus: Will Lukashenka Join Russia’s War in Ukraine? SCEEUS
This scenario might not be likely in the near future based on the assessment of the Institute for the Study of War. One of the main reasons is that Russia is currently not in a condition to launch a new offensive due to heavy losses it has incurred since the start of the war. Thus, the heightened military activity in Belarus can be rather aimed at blunting Ukraine’s offensive by diverting its troops to the north from active fronts in the east and south of the country. In addition, any direct involvement of Belarus in the war can cause a political risk for Lukashenka, as over 90% of Belarusians have clear anti-war sentiments, including supporters of Lukashenka and the pro-Russia part of society.
Sam Cooper, 2020 intel warned Trudeau government that China’s interference in Canadian elections will likely be ‘pervasive’- Global News
According to the document, community leaders and “co-opted” political staffers “under broad guidance” from the Toronto consulate serve as intermediaries between Chinese officials and the politicians Beijing was seeking to influence.
The outcome of these operations, the document says, is that “staff of targeted politicians provide advice on China-related issues” to the Chinese consulate.
Other network operators handle financing and attempt to recruit Canadian politicians, the document said.
“Community leaders facilitate the clandestine transfer of funds and recruit potential targets,” the 2020 PCO memo states.
Programming Note
The TV series on Litvinenko is about to be released. If you would like to know more about Litvinenko, please hop over to Kremlin File podcasts. Olga and I had the absolute pleasure to speak with historian Yuri Felshintsky about Litvinenko’s story, and how he managed to help him escape the Russian regime. Here’s the trailer for the series.